tbh i wish more people had done logistics when talking about this.. i know people that run 500's and die/wipe so often than the increased drop rate is cancelled out.. yes technically its only 1/20 or whatever. but if i can do 30/40 normal raids by the time someone has done 10-15 experts then its not actually any better of a drop rate... and sadly this applies to most people i know that are running experts.. dying way too often to make the increased drop rate actually work same works for moving up to expert but dying once or twice every raid... much better to do normal level raids and smash out every single attempt easily
i got a pet from an overlords 185 i didnt kill them in just 4headed thru was a lot of shitwalls. found out after u trap the warriors u can stand on the 3 far tiles, then 1 tile along the wall for individual shitwalls, 2 tiles on otherside then along the walls for a healthy shitspread. and everybody always immediately starts killing them, even though they give a massive dmg boost if you leave them for a little bit
If you actually read the post by cookmeplox, he said that the higher end of the data wasn't reliable, as there were actually very few people who submitted data for those levels of raids.
yes, but we have more data since they made the post. in fact cookmeplox has posted the raw data spreadsheet and the sample sizes for 400, 450, and 500, while not great, are still 1.5k-2k which is for me enough to at least ballpark the true numbers
Appreciate you putting this video together - after reading the reddit post I had the exact same thoughts and when I started leveling my paths and doing more damage I had a huge jump in purple rate. One thing I've been thinking about though is the extent to which the high raid level is also made up of high path (and thus high damage)? Like in order to get 400+ level raids, it's almost necessary to take some path levelling in order to get that score up. Therefore it's going to be hard to untie high raid level from damage done (ie contribution score). Implication for me at least was that if we can do lower raid level raids that have high path invocations, that might be the best way to go in terms of time/purp chance? We won't know until they actual release some real data, but would be interested to see what you think :)
Very interesting :) I had the same thoughts at first, but a couple observations: - ~400-430 level raids will land you in the ballpark of 15k damage - 540 raids will get you around 17-18k damage If we compare that to what we know for 300s, it seems like, at least at certain invocation levels, raid level does play a pretty large role (for example, if we look at the jump from 300-400, you would increase your damage by 1.3-1.5x yet increase your drop chance by as much as 2.25x). We can also see that in lower invocation levels increasing the level by 10 has a very small effect, perhaps even less than the additional 4% health throughout the raid. So what I imagine it looks like is somewhat like the twisted bow’s scaling curve. If you’re unfamiliar with that it’s quite slow when your enemy has a low magic level, speeding up significantly around 150-200ish, then only slowly increases up to 250 (this is all off memory so details might be wrong). In this case it seems like it really speeds up at the high 300s before slowing down at the mid 400s. This is all speculation of course and feel free to give me any counterpoints or thoughts on the matter! That’s also why I didn’t include “pathy” options for 350+, since I assume at that point you’re forced to opt into some
@@JiyoolRS Yeah - all fair points. I think you're right about scaling like tbow damage, it feels (frustratingly) neither linear nor exponential haha. I just wish we had enough data but guess time will tell. Thanks again for the vid, keep em coming! :)
Do we think all damage is created equal? I wasn't sure if (minion damage, or dung ball damage, which doesn't factor into getting the MVP drops for rooms) counts towards total damage dealt and boosts purple chance.
doing 260~280 solo with void. i did 305 solo already, but it's really brutal without keris partisan of the sun,tbow/bow of faerdhinen or new staff. so i'll keep doing 280. and to boost my points, I can try to hold p2 warden if i have brews enough.
What does " Pathy " mean, does that assume you're doing over 12k damage? that you specifically have like the walk the path AND the other one that basically guarantees you get the 12k +
“Pathy” just means you do enough damage to get a 5% drop rate, which is either 1. Pathfinder + WTP where you go out of your way to hit kephri eggs, boulders, and otherwise maximize damage 2. Pathseeker + WTP probably could have been more clear
ngl i'm dogwater at the end of p4. if i get better though i'll make one. best tip i can give you is - you can walk on lightning right as it strikes and it won't hit you. since they come in sequences of 3, you can walk onto one of the earlier-spawning spots and it'll effectively be a safe tile, if that makes sense
Yeah best advice I can give is look for the shadow with the widest/darkest color and step on that one just get the timing down and you can easily negate a bunch of damage on that final row of the dps burn
First off. I love your helpful vids. I just got a question for you on drop rates. Does teammates death affect their personal drop?? Or the team as a whole and also. Would a 1 death expert mode yield more purples than a deathless 250?
Thanks! To answer your questions, I have heard but can’t confirm that a teammates death only decreases their chance of getting a purple and not yours. As for your second question, we simply don’t know exactly how deaths affect purple rates so I wouldn’t be able to tell you which one is better
Low to mid 400s definitely feels like the sweet spot between non aids invocations, success rate, and clear times unless you're a god who can regularly complete 500+ without dying.
From cookmeplox (wiki admin): "I'm fairly confident that the 300s people are doing aren't 2.5x better than standard 150s. I think the 2.5x calculation from Jagex was assuming that people were doing a decent amount of path-leveling invocations, which further raise the hitpoints (and thus the damage you do, and thus your contribution points, and thus your unique rate) by a somewhat decent margin. But so far most people haven't been using path invocations."
i am 3 minutes in. and we are debating whether or not more points gives a higher purple chance? i know this video was released back when a lot less was known about toa but jesus christ that has to be the most empty thing we have ever debated.. was this ever even up for debate?
Like you said, this was when we didn’t know anything, and yes it was up for debate. As to your other point I actually agree, many people would probably get more optimal rates turning their raid level down a tad. Definitely not to half the drop rate though
great video, but one VERY important thing i would point out is that your table calculates time-to-droprate, NOT time-to-purple. the odds of getting anything on or before hitting droprate is only 64%. all of your times should roughly be multiplied 3 which would give you ~95% chance to receive a purple.
That is why he said time per purple, not time to purple. It's impossible to express time-to-purple without showing a probability distribution, and honestly not many care about that. We just want to maximise the gp/h, which time-to-droprate is perfect for.
Okay I’ve seen this making the rounds and I understand why it seems that way. However in practice time to drop rate is time to purple. It might not seem that way because you only have a 63% chance to get (one or more) purples when you hit drop rate, but if you did 10000 hours of toa you would average out to getting a drop every (however long it takes you to hit drop rate). Why? Because the drop rate is the expected value of the KC at which you’ll get the drop. Yes, you have a 63% chance of seeing a drop and 37% of not seeing the drop, but it averages out to the drop rate because it’s more heavily weighted by the unlucky side, since you can be infinitely unlucky but there are limits to how lucky you can get
Nice video, lot of useful info. I myself started doing 400-425 raids and have gotten 3 purples in ~20 raids, and they are really cozy so I'd definitely recommend trying them out.
@@nz449 All boss invos except more overlords, medic, double trouble, and stay back. HC run, 35 min, need less help, walk the path, deadly prayers, on a diet.
i mean we have no idea, it's possible it might help it's possible it might not. i personally haven't just because if we look at the 2 cases, if it doesn't make a difference and you do all the puzzles, you're going slower. if it doesn't make a difference and you don't do all the puzzles, at least you still have the benefit of going faster rather than no benefit at all, you know what i'm saying?
Yup and deaths hurt purple chances so if you just let them die it’s kinda doing the opposite compared to chambers where you can leave them in for scaling and maximize points on 1 account.
@@JiyoolRS they can afk all rooms except warden where they just die early. ALTHOUGHHHHHHHHHHHHH i dont think p1/p2 is so hard you cant 1+1dps with it. i cant imagine dodging floor tho. that'd be mad lol but 1 death in the raid seems to have minimal effect on purples. and if dmg scaling effects purples, then them not taking any of the cont. points might mean more purple chance for the main account.
So… theoreticaly could I turn on medic and let kephri heal while I deal minimal dps for an hour to get an easy 20k damage raid with very good purple odds? Similar to sitting at guardians at cox for infinite points
i been doing this a while and it seemed to influence normal loot chance but we'd have to try dozens of times even get somewhat of a trend in loot and not assume its luck
I have done many duos in toa and ive always had the most points but my duo team mate will get the purple. Contributions doesnt matter because its just RNG
yea some outliers are very likely caused by low sample size. 390 shows as higher droprate than 400 on the spreadsheet for example, but it's just that 390 people are slightly luckier and lot lower sample size l0l
@@JiyoolRS really lol that’s the only reason I have not tryed any of the path invos I mean I’m still learning I only get about a hour - 1 1/2 hours every other day so far I’m up to 150s with no issue it’s about time to bump the invos up
you wont get under 50 min run without a tbow or shadow you don't need maxed gear bis everything but you need at least a tbow or shadow to make 400's worth doing . If it takes you 1 hour to run a 400 and 1 hour to run 2 300 raids, the 300's are better. Same if it takes you around 50 mins to do a 300 and you can do a 250 in 25-30 mins stick to 250's until you get enough purps to get some key upgrades . Key upgrades are - shadow , tbow , fang
away from computer so can't screenshot anything, but generally just all of the non-cancerous room invocations (so excluding more overlords, medic, double trouble, stay vigilant) with insanity will get you to 300 or very close to 300. let me know if you want more detail
ohh i see. there are kinda 3 approaches to this: - if you are prayer flicking/doing cheese methods and have a yellow keris you can turn on need no help and dehydration for a +70 right there and maybe a path invocation or two to top up - If you aren't down for that route then you can go all in on paths, so you'd have insanity + walk the path + either pathfinder or pathmaster. if you still need more points use more overlords and learn how to trap the scarabs. you can also start using some of the supply restricting invocations or deadly prayers if that'd be easier - last route is another that requires yellow gem which i have theorycrafted but haven't tested yet. You'd put on need no help for +40 but NOT dehydration. this way you would still be able to use some supplies from the raid and bring in a couple brews for emergencies, but mostly focus on prayer. you can then choose 2 out of 3 from: insanity, pathfinder/master, WTP
TLDR: you got a nice graph with a high correlation coefficient between raid level and drop chance, and for your hypothesis you thought that maybe hp vs drop chance would be better, but somehow the graph shows a lower correlation... BUT because the correlation between hp and raid level exists, your graph still shows a slight correlation, but less than with raid lvl vs drop chance. Kind of disproved yourself didnt you?
@@JiyoolRS when you showed raid lvl vs drop chance, there was a high correlation, when you showed damage vs drop chance, the correlation went down, you litterally showed theres an area in between 11k damage and 12k damage where the drop chance doenst really increase after which it al of a sudden does. this would mean, according to your hypothesis, jagex has put in a thresh hold for the damage damage after which the drop chance increases, but stays stagnant within a range (in this case between 11 and 12k) and a range where it decreases in damage range below 11k which would all be included inside of the formula that calculates your drop rate, which of course is a stretch. Something that is less of a stretch is that your hypothesis is wrong.
I can hardly focus on your video because your red xs are recolored to not be red, so I’m always holding my breath bc your clicks look like yellow clicks that are going to make you walk instead of attack 🥴
Could i do 300 raids if I have 90 attack 99 str 75 def 99 range and 95 prayer, with full bandos, avernic and fang, full ancestral with sang, and full armadyl with tbow+ blowpipe?
