What Could the Collapse of Russia Look Like? 

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Thank you for bringing the topic of russification. I have heard so many times pathetic arguments of people saying that Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania and others do not exist when in fact these tribes have their own language and culture. Russification is something that has been going on since Tsarist times. Suppressing a people's language and culture is no different than ethnic cleansing.

Day 1: Riots, a possible coup and resource shortages Day 7: Valve announces that CSGO EU region hackers have dropped 99%

Though this maybe classified a game of drawing lines on a map, I am impressed with the depth of geopolitic study that went into this vlog. Thank you for your efforts & helping us learn a little more.

Great video, hopefully part 3 addresses the biggest elephant in the room which is nuclear weapons. In the event of a break up some of those states will have access to nuclear site’s weapons. Is complicated to know exactly how much each region has in terms of weapons given is a state secret regardless of how much some of it is shared with the USA.

This was great! But I was surprised that there was no mention of the nuclear issue, it seems that this would be a pretty enormous bearing on any federation breakup.

The first 2 times he says “Tsarist Russia” I heard “terrorist Russia”. Same difference about now I guess :(

when I watch you I cannot stop thinking about Shirvan at Caspian Report. You both have taken us on an amazing journey and I salute you for that. Great geopolitics in reporting

This was extremely well done. Thank you.

The biggest issue with most of these kinds of predictions is what do the people living there actually want? All these new nations look great on paper but do the millions of people there want to join together in such a way?

I’ve been watching “what if” and “They are going to” Russia collapse videos since last February. Nothing more than a pipe dream perspective that garners tons of algorithm views

I can’t believe I can get this level and quality of analysis for free.

Hello from Bashkortostan💙💚🤍

hahahaha.I am not Russian and I 100% support Ukraine. BUT: this video is far from reality. Every province of Russia knows that if they manage to leave the Federation, they will be eaten by China or another bordering neighbor. These Russian republics have many resources and Asia needs the, Especially China. The only viable state will be around Moscow. Also, Russian people are together for so long time that there is no real identity between groups. Also living so a long time under an authoritarian regime, Tzarist, Communist, and Oligarchic, have bonded these populations very strongly. Not having real identities as states, these republics will not leave the federation. Moscow is their soul. :):) Russian Federation collapse will just increase immensely China. And the USA as well EU knows this.

The visualizations are the best there is. The directing of the shots is amazing. I'm impressed

Bashkirs are proud and brave people, Bashkirs have beautiful holidays, girls have beautiful music. And Bashkortostan itself is beautiful with rivers, mountains, forests. I want to go there. I love Bashkortostan and Bashkir as they say "ALGA BASHKORTTAR"💚💙🤍

you have developed so much through these years. good job!

What about Pacific Republic (capital Los Angeles), Rocky Mountains Republic (Denver), Texas (Houston), Central Republic (Chicago) and Atlantic Republic (New York) ???😄

Collapse would be bloody and slow, with many casualties in both armies and civilians. Propably islamic republics would become independent first, because they have both uniting power (islam) and autonomy with armies.

Is this an American bot site?

I created a similar map a year ago based on a different approach. Nations often follow river catchments and natural boundaries. This is one reason why the border between Jordan and Saudi Arabia is so strange. Its following the line where water flows north and south. The core of Russia is the Volga basin. Transport networks also matter. Siberia connects to Russia at only a few points. The same is true for some of the other states. I differ by adding a separate state in the north where the Balto-Finnic speaking Russians live. The language may be banned but it survives. I also use the canal between the black and Caspian sea as a logical border for the Caucuses. I also have a quarantined Moscow, essentially walled off from the surrounding Volga Republic and the world.

Breakup of Russia? This world has never ceased to amaze me. MAYBE the UK breaks up before Russia. How about Australia when aboriginals asks for their independence after they were massacred? And Canada? How about Quebec getting out of that Union? And the so called heroic country, with exceptionalism: I have been hearing blacks there asking for their own states. Daydreaming based on emotions ends up becoming sickness

Here's a thought: would some Western nations intervene in a Russian civil war? Theoretically some nations might move to secure nuclear weapons, lest they fall into less stable hands or end up in the black market. Would some Western nations actively support some factions in the civil war or would they take a mostly hands-off approach? And if they chose to be largely hands-off would they actively work to stop other nations from taking advantage of the chaos to seize territory and resources? And what would happen to Russia's seat at the UN Security Council? So many threads to pick apart.

Yeah this is pure fantasy for the most part, especially the two new states on the Russian far east. China will never allow that, and neither would Russia. It's their only pacific port, and way too strategically important for both Russia and china. China didn't go to war in Korea vs USA to just see a new country appear on their north east that's not under their direct influence or Russia's, and which isn't vehemently anti USA and anti West to a lesser extent. A fun little exercise but pure fantasy is all it is.

Great video. But you forgot to mention two important issues. 1. Russia may use weapons of mass destruction to prevent its breakdown, it is even part of their nuclear doctrine. 2. Some parts of Siberia and Far East are becoming increasingly more populated by ethnic Chinese. China may utilize the chaos of Russian collapse, in case one comes, and annex the new territory or at least, keep it in its sphere of interest.

Always love your analysis. Thanks for your hard work!

cool... now do one of the US.

The population is too old, too passive and too sparse to make this happen on its own.

Great video. Here's hoping 🤞

Świetny materiał

when will you do a video about the collapse of Anglo Saxon countries? I would really enjoy it.

it’s also funny to see how the topic of protests in Khabarovsk is shown. This has nothing to do with the topic of separatism, these protests were anti-Putin, people came out with Russian flags... It seems that the author is tempted from any connections for the presented topic

The whole video is built on an unproven argument about Moscow's tyranny of the regions. The author of the video claims that Russia infringes on the language and culture of peoples. Only the author of the video does not know that in the regions and republics of the Russian Federation, national languages are equated to Russian and have the same official status. I have never seen the Russians in any way infringe on the culture of peoples. The author claims that the governors are appointed by the Kremlin. This is another lie. Governors in the Russian Federation are elected by the people. The author also mentioned Furgal's criminal sentence. Well, yes ... he was imprisoned. Yes, he was popular. So what? He was jailed for proven murder. And what did they do in the USA with such a popular pedophile as Mile Jascon? Imagine, your popularity doesn't mean you are clean before the law. Since the beginning of Putin's presidency, more than 35 governors have been planted in the Russian Federation. How many governors have been planted in the USA? The position towards the Russian Federation is surprising: Government not imprison governors? "Well, they're all together!" Government imprison governors? "this is because he crossed her path" It doesn't matter to you what to blame Russia and Putin for. It is enough for him to just stand up, he will already do it wrong. Trying to consolidate his argument, the author of the video mentions the Chechen war. Only he does not know that the leaders of the Chechens in that war were Wahhabis. Wahhabism is a radical Islamic movement. The one in which Sharia courts operate and infidel women are stoned to death. The author does not know that not only the Russian army, but also the Chechen one, fought against the Wahhabis. The author does not know that the supreme imam of Chechnya, Akhmat Kadyrov, became the leader of the Chechens fighting against the Wahhabis. The author does not know that after the victory of the Russian and Chechen armies over the Wahhabis, a referendum was held in Chechnya in which the majority of the inhabitants of Chechnya spoke in favor of Chechnya remaining part of the Russian Federation. The author does not know that Russia did not start the second Chechen war. It was started by the Wahhabis (Ichkerians) who invaded Dagestan (Republic of the Russian Federation) The author can ironically and joke about the above facts as much as he wants, but he himself has not given any facts that testify in favor of his argument about the tyranny of Moscow - the regions. In conclusion, I would like to say that the author is once again mistaken when he talks about the collapse of Russia in 1917 and 1991. Russia has been leading its history since 862. During this time, Russia fell apart not two times, but three. The third is the Tatar-Mongol yoke, which lasted 300 years in Rus'. With each collapse, Russia only became stronger. The author also forgets that Russia is the only country on the planet (perhaps, except for China) that has experienced monstrous upheavals that no other country has experienced. And Russia did it more than once, not twice. The author of the video resembles a youngster with rosy cheeks and huge eyes. I advise you to get acquainted with the history of Russia. This fish is too tough for you.

About the material: I think it was a little bit too hypothetical to my taste, I like more grounded content.

Incredible, as usual. Thanks!

Well, Russia did not disintegrate after the fall of the Tsarist Empire or the fall of the Soviet Union. It is a state that was formed centuries ago and whose cultures had more than enough time to "grow together". - So why would the Russian Federation disintegrate this time?

Once again amazing video, thank you for pumpping out great work.

Bashkirs need an independent Thanks supported this idea💚💙🤍

I would appreciate if you do the Collapse of USA in your next episode

Very interesting, can you do one on the break up of the United States next? Fascinating to see what that will look like! 😊

The scenario you outline looks similar to the end of the Han Dynasty and the beginnin of the Three Kingdoms Period. War + failure of the centre led to the devolution of power to regional governors and their private forces, which led to warlordism and the eventual fracturing of the state.

Thanks!

Very informative. I am so happy to find this channel. Thank you so much for making them! I just wonder if that's only me or anyone else who finds the constant transitional effects distracting...

God I could listen to him say country names all day 😌

All this proposed breakup does not consider the new Oil and gas pipelines being worked on to connect to China. These would significantly change the economics and the motivations of Putin to through everything he had to stop these break-ups.

The eternal westoid fantasy.

SUGGESTION: Please try to limit the shifting of the orientation of your maps. It makes it very confusing to follow. Perhaps you could Zoom in and out of maps where North is always at the top of the frame. Also, highlighting the parts of interest is very helpful.

FANTASY MY FRIEND

I know that even a start of conversations on russia collapse topic is a huge step for the world. Here in Ukraine we also have been trying to push such conversations forward, because everyone needs to be prepared to what could bring russian collapse. Who would lead new-formed states? Who would get nukes? How much such collapse would impact on world terrorism? Such questions are needed to be answered and we need to have at least a couple of plans prepared.

Given this channel's very obvious bias, this seems more like wishful thinking than reality. It could happen but I feel like you cover this so much because you want it to happen

everytime i watch these sort of video, i always facepalm myself... people doesn't know how ethnic minorities and nationality works, it's not about whenever there's minorities, but whenever the people there would be willingly to separate, and also people are not aware that these minorities are their own minorities in their own territory, as Russians now ovepopulate most of these minorities it's like saying some states will break free just because some native americans live there, that's not how it works

Great explanation

Who is here after Wagner Rebellion?

One of the things that really struck me early on about Russia's actions in supporting an armed ethnic insurgency in Eastern Ukraine was that Russia is actually significantly more vulnerable to ethnic unrest and claims for independence within its own borders. How long before external actors start giving different kinds of support to ethno-nationalist movements within the Russian Federation? And if/when that happens, how could the Russian state possibly object to claims of ethno-nationalists who want breakaway independence from Moscow?

I agree that most of the regions presented here will try to break away if Russia collapses. The only issue I see with this scenario is that, apart from Kaliningrad, it does not take into account the reactions of foreign nations who have territorial claims to Russian land. Japan would likely try to reclaim the Kuril Islands and China may try retake the lands lost by the Qing Dynasty (or at the very least subjugate any new countries in the east. Even Finland may seek to recover the territories it lost in the Winter War.

community, territorial politics; i love this idea and just that someone talks about this brings hope for a better future.

Finland could receive its historical lands in Karelia, Murmansk, Arkhangelsk and connect with Komi republic which is also Finno-Ugric. Than Nenets province is also Finno-Ugric-Samoeidic, should be connected with Greater Finland. For Finland and local people it would be beneficial. And finally the name of the Finno-Uralic language family will meet the one country borders.

Who dreams up this shit?

I think the GDP figures provided here are calculated at the PPP (purchasing power parity) exchange rate rather than the market exchange rate. In the case of most countries, including Russia, that makes a difference. For example, the Polish nominal GDP is only 0.7 of the Dutch, but at PPP it is about 25% bigger.

*IMF:* "Russia's economy is expected to grow more than the UK!" *Russia experiences 3+ month long deepening deficit with no signs of improvement* LOL at the Kremlin sock puppets at the IMF 😂

Great video. I've been following your channel for a few weeks now and am looking forward to the next episode!

this video reeks of polish wishful thinking. the ussr broke apart because it was a multi ethnic state, russia today is 80% russian and the remaining 20% are either highly russofied, sparsely populated or landlocked within russia. there is no region that could realistically gain independence and the assumption that people frustrated with their government would support the break up of their country is delusional

About Tatarstan Moscow know that there is relationship between Helsinki apital of Finland and Kazan capital of Tatarstan and they have intervined it.. In Finland we have small tatar minority fully integrated in our society wich have bloodties to Kazan and after collapse of USSR they bild tight economial contacts to eachother. And then maris, mordvas and many other minority nationalities even in Siberia speaks languages that are from same family as finnish, estonian and hungary. Karelian languge is almost a dialect of finnish.

The SIberian Republic and Far Eastern Republic would be great additions to the union. 51st and 52nd state? Can I get a 2nd?

Не дождётесь!

Liberal Moment

Hmm, it's disgusting to see how the author dreams of dividing Russia into parts. It is good that the Russian people and our elites understand that this catastrophe will bring only pain, suffering and death. This gives a chance that the dreams of the authors will remain dreams. At least we will do our best for this. It is disgusting to see how the author is trying to separate my region from another part of Russia. The fate of people for the author is just a joke.

They would use tactical nukes if any region tried to secede. They know no one would try to stop them.

Great content as always

Very resourceful video, thank you for your interpretation!

WOW 👍 GREAT VIDEO, AMAZING FORCAST WITH REALISM BEHIND. IF SUCH RUSSIAN DIVIDE, WOULD BE ...PEACEFUL?.....THIS COULD BECOME A BETTER OUTCOME FOR ALL THE PARTIES INVOLED

So this is where they were hiding all to good cope. 😋 😂

The new Russian republics would need rapid industrialisation, too.

Very informative and much more plausible than most realize! Let's just hope when this happens, that whatever remines of the leadership of the former Russi, in the new Moscow state is sane enough to realize they can't stop the inevitable. Otherwise, the collapse will be much more unpleasant than necessary.

Тут многие говорят:Ыыыы республики будут свободны ыыыы. Спрашивается от кого? Вас что претисняют? Нет, вам что в вашу веру верить не дают? Нет.вам занимать посты гос служащих мешают? Тоже нет. Так и вопрос, от кого вы собираетесь освободится, от себя что-ли.

Whatever it looks like it can't come soon enough.

Как сказала Ванга: против России🚩❤🇷🇺 ополчится весь мир, но Россия победит! ❤ Слава России🚩 🇷🇺! Ура!

Propaganda

They wrote in the old days that it is sweet and fitting to die for one's country. But in modern war, there is nothing sweet nor fitting in your dying. You will die like a dog for no good reason. - Ernest Hemingway

Nice video, good presentation. I'd be curious to see a similar analysis of the US. Rumors of its potential desintegration have been as, if not more, prominent.

The Far Eastern Republic makes minimal sense to me - but I would like to see a Free Russia split in two - and the Eastern Part becoming, - The Country of Siberia or Officially = Siberia. #simply

And after all that you woke up. What a shame.

always remember from what source u taking stats, who did this analytics, who is the sponsor and beneficiary

A breakaway southern region makes sense to me. With it's capitol being volgograd. It has clear geographical limits, ukraine border can be expanded up to the don river and kazakstan up to the volga. The northern border with the moscow based western russian state would be somewhere north of volgograd. Maybe the caucus states could join it, if it was democratic enough :) sakhalin and kurils go back to japan. North korea gets vladivostok. China takes back it's imperial borders between lake baikal and chumikan. Siberian republic. Another central republic between the urals and siberia. And moscow state is the current european borders up to the urals. Then the people can start to produce states that are actually accountable to them.

The analysis on Furgal is just completely missing reality, there was not even a hint of separatism in these protests and/or in Furgal's policy

i wouldnt hold my breath. Better enemies have tried and failed,

The closed caption is completely out of sync with the audio.

superior graphics and analysis!

Would St Petersburg even go with Moscow? Or might there be a Novgorod Republic

This is so divorced from reality, it is laughable to watch. Cherry on top is the "state of Idelural" :D.

Haha, the author is so helplessly arrogant. It is amusing to watch it. In the end of 2023 everybody is watching the movie about civil war in the us - it looks much more realistic than this bs crap

This second part is much better than the first.

your wet dreams our western "friends" :D

Не дождëтесь! 🇷🇺

Wow this is the most implausible thing to happen EVER

The next 10-20 years will be interesting for sure!

Interesting but highly unlikely to happen.

All Empires must fall, it is the will of creation, the natural order, when corruption & stagnation breeds the only outcome is death,

1:16 "show that..." No it doesn't. What a ridiculous thing to say.

Question: What would prevent "Siberia" from uniting with "Far East"? One big block running up to the Urals would create one of the largest countries in the world, somewhere near the size of Canada.