What If Russia Broke Up? 

*Are there any other countries you think could break up in a near future?* Important note: At 7:40 and 8:10 I accidentally mentioned the percentages of the 1926 census instead of the 2010 ones. My mistake - I'm sorry! I'll be more attentive next time so that I don't make this type of mistakes.

You made a mistake regarding Karelia, only 7,4% are ethnic Karelians. You used the figure from 1926 rather than the census of 2010. Seems unlikely that such a small minority could force separation

Tannu Tuva: *becomes independent* Hoi4 players ready to complete ,,Siberian Tiger" irl: ,,My time has come"

Fascinating; I knew of some of these cultures,, but had no idea it was so complex and diverse. Thanks for posting! New sub here!

Thanks for spending the time to create and share this content

0:31 It was a federation in Soviet times too, the Russian socialist FEDERATIVE soviet republic, RSFSR. It didn’t have to reinvent itself at all.

8:10 you're looking on population of 1926 instead of 2010. Same with Karelia.

Thank you for creating such an interesting, informative video. I enjoyed a lot.

Wow, what a time to release this video. While still quite improbable, certain other improbable developments which influence the odds a put this question on some minds sure unfolded quickly right after this was published.

If a break up in Russia happens, Chechnya would most likely be the first to go. They fought 2 independence wars against Russia previously. They won the first war but in the peace agreements for it all discussions about Chechen Independence or autonomy where put on hold, and in exchange Russia withdrew troops from Chechnya. However they lost the second war, and Russia with the aid of Akhmat Kadyrov’s forces crushed the Chechen independence forces. Update: In the Summer of 2022, Ukraine became the First UN Member State to recognize Chechen Independence.

I think after napoleon and German unification broke the idea of city-states. Not entirely but in a modern world its extremely hard to survive if trying to be diplomatic to outside powers or economic conditions. You'd either need to be on the coastline like Venice or survive for so long it's impossible to imagine a world without them like Vatican was or the city of London is today

Thanks so much for providing this informative video :)

Very well prepared presentation... thank you

Amazing you finally made it! I was waiting for this one for months if not years :) thank you!

Thank you for the great video! A little correction if I may: Turkic is pronounced “Tur-kick”, not “Tur-kich”, and Daghestan’s “gh” is a hard g as in garden.

Interesting concept

looking forward to see that

interesting stuff ! i for one would be interested in a city states video - whether its the history of, why they arent common anymore, or just modern ones that have stuck around !

2:47 My hometown was mentioned in General Knowledge My day is saved

Is it possible to add a drag & drop feature? Then we could combine different maps that you present. Also a zoom feature. I am really asking for an " INFINATE CARTOGRAPHY " button/feature. We could then use it to display gerrymandering, possible solutions &...

Love these videos! It shows that a lot of work was put in it.

I never clicked on a video so quick. Ironically I was watching another GK video when I got the notification. 😅

You should make that City-State video because that sounds super interesting

Я если честно, почему-то хочу заметить такой момент. Если сравнивать горожанина из Новосибирска и из Москвы, можно заметить, насколько более религиозным является Москвич. Есть несколько регионов, где нерелигиозных людей больше половины. Например вышеупомянутый Новосибирск имеет 25% атеистов, и 35% деистов, и всего-лишь 25% православных. Есть даже мнение такое, что большинство православных России - православные атеисты, что-то вроде культурного патриотизма.

The problem with this video is that the ratio of indigenous peoples and visitors is taken a hundred years ago, I have a national region at my side, with a second state national language, with benefits and quotas for the indigenous population. What do you think how many of this indigenous population? Less than 10%. Will they revolt and secede? Firstly, there are few of them, and secondly, they will lose all benefits. This will never happen.

The Asian part of Russia is huge but virtually empty, except for a thin strech of land in the south along the borders with Kazakhstan, Mongolia and China. It could literally house the entire human population on Earth and not be overpopulated.

I suspect far east can't exactly separate that easily, considering the vast majority of farmland and other kind of food supply are located in the westernmost regions. Even if all those regions separated they're still kinda would be dependent.

Neat analysis with an exception of lacking information of existing/existed projects of autonomous republics like Idel-Ural state, Ingria, Confederation of Mountain Peoples of the Caucasus etc

your pronunciation of slavic words is really good dude. great videos.

Congrats, very interesting video.

OMG, you speak so fast, sometimes I think I already x2 speed but in fact it is the normal speed of yours

I would have liked to see a map of what you think is the most likely way they could split up based on the other maps

I would have appreciated one or two extra maps. You covered the political and cultural realities. A map of the petroleum resources and a map of mineral resources would have been nice. You covered where natural fissures might occur, so identifying obvious lines for resisting fissure would have been nice. I understand that it was not in the scope of this project, but the lack of that information limits the value of what you did present.

I love your idea of a video about city states. I’ll be taking notes to help Lancaster break away from the UK right now.

I don't want to see Russia broken up. I want to see it start to make the most of its peoples' potential and to stay the hell inside its own more than ample borders.

I'm from "Permskyi kryai". The Permian period was also named as the city near which the first fossils from that era were found.

Keep doing more breaking up series like these

Really interesting

Impressive. Very Nice. How are you gonna split the nukes?

How about you do one on the United States? There are a lot of ways you could slice it should the country utterly collapse, but I'm interested in where you'd put the lines.

Please do a why city-states are rare today ? This idea is very interesting

I had never really thought about the end game of a Russian collapse. This was a super eye opener for me.

Maybe you should think how your own country can break up

Thats very interesting

I saw a documentary about Dagestan a while ago. It's a beautiful place.

Do a video on what if Czechoslovakia reunited. What the current ethnic group make up would be? The nation's GDP? What their biggest imports and exports would be? Etc.

Was this uploaded in the wrong resolution? Part of the video is cut off for me

As a Russian from south Siberia (Novosibirsk region), I don’t think that some of the republics will become independent. Cause putin’s government has been building strong financial dependence of all regions from the capital. And there are not many separatists in the Russia. People have been living in this prison regime for 20 years. They got used to it. I know that it’s all hypothetical. And it was interesting to watch. Thx.

On the city-state thing, I think it already exists as metropolitan areas, but with common rights and laws and a collective defense.

What about prediction of economic potential of Korea, if it was united (non the mater by which one side, yet north one was close to it)? In time when it was separated by two sides, North were much more industrialized than South, while it had a low of cheap workforce. All together they may be pretty quick growing economy.

You forgot one very important factor. Regions with large amount of natural resources (for example Yamalo-Nenetskiy autonomy district), like oil and gas have more chances for economical independence and consequently have more chances for real independence

Maybe citystates aren’t so popular anymore since modern inventions have made travel much much easier than in the past??? I dunno, that was just my first thought but I’d love to look into that too.

Is there a similar video about the U.S. breaking apart? :)

If read the map on 4:20 correctly, most regions have more than 50% Russians. Tuva and the Caucasus are exceptions to the rule.

I live in the autonomous region (Ugra). By nationality, I have Russian and Ukrainian-Polish roots. I have an Azerbaijani friend, he is in a large family and he never spoke about the disunity of Russia, in some ways he is even a patriot of Russia. In the school where I study there are many children who are not Russian or have mixed roots (30-40% of the school students) and they are in excellent contact with me. The government of the region is focused on partnership and creation of all conditions for the development of the small indigenous people of Khanty. Even the city itself, the capital of the region, is called Khanty-Mansiysk. You might think that assimilation is bad, but in America such a society has already been built.

Hello from Bashkortostan :)

Love these vids! Could you please do a scenario where Canada breaks up?

There is multiple issues witht his video, nowadays if the ethnicity represent minorities in Russie is because of mixity. Actually it's not that simple to find 100% russians, if you ask anyone who is his grandparents, you will usually find 2 to 4 different ethnicities, and maybe more. So talking about minority or majority is somehow not usefull in Russia in terms of culture. The governement is trying to keep the different cultures through tradition. I, myself , am from Tomsk, a city in the Tomsk Oblast, Siberia, and I'm a mixity of russian , belorus, crimean, jewish, and even african. My father is muslim while my mom is orthodoxe. Cultural differences won't affect Russia as it is now, except the European part, as we see with ukrain. There are separatists, but there are way more imperialists, and even more communists. You also forgot other ethnicities that came long ago to Russie, greeks, romans (byzantinians), turks etc...The unity of Russia is quite important is our country. Transport: well there is the transiberian. Infrastructure, I can't see how it could lead to separatism, as even non independant oblasts deal itself with local problematics. Separation of a Krai is the most unlikely to happen, as it will end up isolated, and won't have enough rresources to be autonomnius, due to population density.

The 2 main divisions are Russian conservatives vs Moscow liberals (just like US but not as splitting as geographically splitting as in US) and Russians vs Caucuses- ethnic tension there.

Let's hoppe it breaks up as soon as possible

In Russia there is the saying "you are dividing fur of alive bear". I think this is the most accurate description of this.

i think you forgot to account the economic and political value of some states and their neighboring countries , dont think china will necesarily absorb the close ones but it would determine their dependace or breaking off

Idk if someone mentioned it, but the only reason you don't want Russia to break up, at least completely is due to the fact that nuclear arsenal will also split between "states". As of this day, as I see it, under circumstances of break up the states are too prone to end up with autocratic regimes which would result in even worse scenario than if the russia remain "united". Russia needs much stronger federalism with lots of taxes staying in the parts where they've been gathered

hey great video.. PLS SO INDIA as its many states as each state is divided into various ethno linguistic groups it would be very interesting

As a Russian, in my opinion, separatist divison not only (an not as much) by ethnicity, there is more tension between Russian oblast's and Moscow that intensively tries to control them. As the most recent example is Khabarovsk where FSB (Federal Security Service) removed a popular governor or Ekaterinburg where elections of mayor were cancelled also largely because of Moscow and now former popular mayor is under investigations. Worth mentioning that ideas of Ural Republic (which was a project of reforming Ural Federal district) are still alive. If Kaliningrad sees tht Russia is under heavy crisis, it can probably also show desire to return to Germany. Division by ethnicity is prominent in very certain republics and the most prominent to separate are Chechnya and Tatarstan, because they already showed a will to separate in the 90s. To the lesser extent are probably Dagestan and Buryatia, because they donated most of the soldiers to "specopertion" and can be pretty frustrated with the outcome.

Great work. But there is mistake in name. Correct is "When" instead of "What if".

So, as a person living in Russia, I can say that the probability of the collapse of Russia is very small. Separatism has been minimal in our country since the end of 2000. But in the nineties, under Yeltsin, the situation was bad. There was a so-called "parade of sovereignties". This is a phenomenon when some subjects of Russia began to demand more autonomy. For example, Tatarstan or the Ural Republic. These "states" could hardly gain real independence, since they had no borders with anyone except Russia and did not even have access to the sea. Also, you probably heard about Chechnya, two wars took place there, it tried to separate from Russia. But after Putin's arrival, the centralization of power began, Chechnya returned to Russia, and the "parade of sovereignties" was over. This was probably done thanks to the privileges and guarantees of the elites of these subjects. Now the separation of these entities is unlikely, since they have a more or less good economic situation. (Not everywhere). For example, Chechnya was restored after devastating wars and now it is a fairly developed region of Russia. The peoples living in the republics are not infringed, but on the contrary, they are given various benefits. In all republics, in addition to the Russian language, there is a second regional language. For example, there are three languages in Crimea: Russian, Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar. And although less than a percent of the Crimean Tatar population uses Crimean Tatar, citizens have the right to speak and study in this language and no one will forbid it. Therefore, it is absolutely unprofitable for the republics to separate for whatever cultural reasons. The preservation of the culture of small nations is a distinctive feature of Russia's expansion. The Russians did not exterminate the indigenous peoples, like the Spaniards or the British, who exterminated the Indians. Joining was something like this: "Guys, we are joining you. You will pay us taxes. But we will not destroy your culture. Believe in your gods and speak your own language." But still there were clashes with the locals, but they did not acquire the character of genocide, as in America. An interesting fact: when serfdom was in Russia (this was when peasants were exploited at about the level of slavery), it spread mainly in central Russia and did not affect indigenous peoples. To sum up, we can imagine the following variant of the collapse of Russia: we are losing to Ukraine in the war and it reaches the borders of 1991. Because of this, Russia is becoming weaker. The conditional pro-Western Yeltsin 2.0 comes to power and a new "parade of sovereignties" begins. Chechnya as the most unstable region and probably some other republics of the Caucasus are dissatisfied with what is happening and decide to secede from Russia. Japan is given the Kuriles and probably Sakhalin. Kaliningrad could theoretically be given under the protection of Poland, Germany or the Baltic States, although due to the fact that the communists resettled many Russians there, it would be difficult, so instead of being directly incorporated into some European country, Kaliningrad could become a fourth Baltic country. Some small disputed territories may be ceded to Finland and China. It is unlikely to imagine that Russia will break up into more countries than I have described. It is likely that the remaining republics will require more autonomy and the Russian Federation will turn into a confederation without part of the Caucasus, Kaliningrad and some other territories.

Industrial society (either communist or capitalist) strongly compels integration of complementary areas. Commodities of daily life are largely imported to the "ethnic" areas. Current population would be decimated. Another approach is to turn back the clock to before the Russian empire integrated all these territories/populations/cultural groups. Viable subdivisions of RF would have to center on distribution points that can support life, or on extant neighboring countries that can nurse these proto-states along. E.g. Chechnya et al, western Siberia, Mongolia/Baikal region, the far east and northeast, the far north and Novgorod, the Caspian steppes/Volga basin, pskov, Moscow, st Petersburg. But the thing is--we don't know if there is any regional identity among the overwhelming Russian majority that can outweigh the centuries of integration and dependency. Contrast with provinces of western Canada, which do have strong identity, global integration, and are in dialog with their First Nations minorities.

2:46 It's KraSNOyarsk, not KraNOSyarsk. The root krasn- means red and -yar means cliff. So the city name is Red Cliff.

An interesting detail about Dagestan - it is a multinational region itself. Just google Dagestan ethnicities map. There are more than 10 nationalities living there, besides the ethnic Russians, who are a minority there. These nationalities also have some tensions between them for centuries. Chechnya and Ingushetia even had an armed territorial dispute between them, even though they belong to the same Vainakh people. Trust me guys, when it comes down to multiculturalism, Russia is a true rabbit hole. But somehow all these peoples manage to get along with each other. Historically infrastructure and economy is so tightly tied together, that breaking up these chains would be extremely painful for all sides involved. Russia is like a living symbiotic organism, where all sides need each other to survive. Like an ecosystem in the forest. All those fantasies about some region going independent will be crushed under the harsh reality of economy and logistics.

From what I see here, it seems that the most likely scenario would be a number of the areas, such as Armenia and others especially mentioned in a few comments below, would leave especially in the southwest. It seems as if the low population areas of the east would find it more beneficial to stay Russian.

7:40 Man, are you serious? These are a CENTURY old data. There are 30% of Burats in Buratia, and only 49% of Sakhas(or Yakuts) in Skha(Yakutia). You are relying on extremely outdated statistics.

SWOT ANALYSIS categories to consider by region beyond language/culture: economic activities, economic trading partners, economic stability if independent, military bases, (air/sea)ports, power/utilities/water grid/generation, infrastructure (road/rail/waterways), etc.

The only actually possible breakups are Chechnya and Dagestan, imo. Maybe taking a few of the nearby ones too.

Is there a similar video about the European Union or the USA?

the thing is that in the end those will simply become tiny states that would find it exceedingly difficult to sustain themselves without the help from the federal budget and will end-up having to rely on foreign aid anyway becoming ether chinese puppet states or broke backwaters, even the ones who have alot of natural resources, like sakha due to their low population and vast territory will end-up being "colonised" by foreign companies, be it russian, western or chinese in the end its always the same story, u grab all ya can without a single care for the natives. there is no good future for those tiny states wether they will stay with russia or leave it.

Hey there. I am a quarter ethnic Koryak and I am fluent. I just want to say that there is a lot of dispute in Kamchatka related to Russian rule however our Duma has been representing the natives well and helping and aiding with things

6:00 Plenty of space :D

I'm impressed how both high-quality and low-quality the video is. From one hand the author did a great job researching all these maps. On the other hand he didn't cover the topics that are obvious for every Russian: - existing separatism movements. Firstly, it's Caucasus, especially Chechnya that had 2 wars 20 years ago. Secondly, it's Turkic areas like Tatarstan, Bashkiria and so on: relatively rich area with the biggest minority in Russia divided from Kazakhstan with Orenburg corridor only - poorly connected far-east areas that sometimes have more economic relations with neighbours (China, Mongolia, Japan) than with Moscow, especially Khabarovsk and Vladivostok - territorial claims from the other countries. Russia has conquered too much in the past so you have somewhat implicitly contested territories with Finland, Estonia, Ukraine (especially now), Kazakhstan, Japan - current economical model. Considering it, Moscow is never interested in being independent, haha While having the mentioned above listening to Jewish Autonomous Oblast (that's not Jewish, not Autonomous, and not Oblast - like HRE) to be separated... That's hilarious

This has been a long time dream of westerners to divide Russian Federation, but I am expert in this issue and can assure you that none of national Republics would break away in near pair hundreds of years. My expertise derives from my origin: my father is Yakut and my mother is Altai, I was born and lived in Yakutia (Sakha Republic), I studied in Yekaterinburg in Ural in university and now I live in Republic of Altai. Since 2000 I have researched and studied opinions on national separatism in Russia and my conclusion is that nowadays there is no separatist movements and wont be for a long time. People here understand that the moment separation occurs - that would be the end for nations, since there are own elites inside regions, many neighbouring nations with their own interests, aversions towards each other, cultural and religious differences. The only way to live in peace and survive is to be gathered together by strong undisputable center, such as ethnical Russians (who are mostly mixed and having different nationalities heritage, btw). Usually people of different nationalities call themselves Russians meaning that they belong to one country - Russia, and only after that they differentiate into nationalities. If we take Yakutia as an example and try to imagine what happens in the case of separation that would be a complete disaster: the only steps needed to send Yakutia into stoneage is to shut down heating producing plant and stop fuel transporation to that region. And civilization disappears. Moreover to the south is Buryatia, and they are completely different nation with own religion, culture, interests and elites. And conflict starts. As an another example are Altai and Tyva, the same picture. So I have to conclude that separation seems impossible for me in near future and long-term. P.S. Also you have to understand that Russians did not act towards local nations same as Americans towards indians, or British towards indians, or Europeans and Americans towards Africans. Local nations in Russia are on the same level with ethnical Russians having all freedoms and rights such as using own language, keeping traditions and culture, even having own constitutions, etc.

It would never happen. Imagine all the tiny republics with left over Russian nukes. It’s in Americas , chinas , and europes best interest to not Balkanize Russia

0:34 It was the Russian Soviet FEDERATIVE Socialist Rebublic (Russian SFSR) so it didn't really change

The numbers at ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-NC37nAxP8ac.html don't add up. The list adds up to 83. To obtain 85 you need to count in the territories of Crimea ad Sevastopol, occupied since 2014. I guess that's what the star near "85" is there for, but I guess that could have been made more explicit

in most of the territories that you have marked as possible for separation, this cannot be. The same Altai Kray, where many Russians live. I'm from there myself and I know what I'm saying. Many indigenous peoples of Siberia treat Russians very well. I personally know representatives of these peoples who, as they say, "beat their chest with their fist", that they are Russians, but at the same time do not lose their culture

7:40 its funny how Karelians prosentage started dropping after 1939, because most of them moved into Finland after Russian and Finnish wars.

This video focuses a lot on numbers but doesn't describe a likely break-up scenario... For example, Chechnya might separate first, then this might embolden a neighbouring republic to do the same etc.

If russia breaks up, I'll be hosting a celebratory booze up 🤣🍺

Several arguments are presented why the bulk of the Russian Federation is unlikely to break up. One argument not presented is the risk of becoming a client state, if not being fully absorbed by an increasingly powerful and expansionist China.

Such a remote "Jewish" automous region nested up against North Korea and China is amazing.

Missed the most important factor: Economics. Money. My understanding is that it is these outlying areas that have the natural resources but are kept poor and dependent while the money all flows to Moscow to fight Pootin's wars.

thnxs 4 vid. actually this not just hypothetic idea. it will happen no later than 2050 year, the latest.

The lack of infrastructure in central and eastern Russia is due to the climate, not lack of money or disorganization. The climate is so extreme that it would destroy the roads fairly quickly or almost anything.

Very good, professionally made educational and informative video. I am impressed how you dissected and explained how RF is politically, geographically and ethnically organized. Thank you so much for in-depth analysis of these many, and I mean many, different parts that make RF. Excellent work. 👍👍❤

A reverse process of this is happening right now

Im extremely skeptical of "what if" in political questions due to the inevitable complexity of variables. However, this show was very well done. I see it presenting the logical, and at times pressing, lines of division. A logical solution to an ethnic-political is unlikely anywhere and most improbable in a land monopolozed by despots since the iron age.

What if all of north America broke up? I'd say a union between all of new England plus the Maritimes and newfoundland under a country called New England. then the maritime region would be new Scotland (That's what nova scotia means) and newfoundland would be new Ireland. just an idea!

You should do "What if Croatia broke up(into dalmatia and slavonia)"

You forgot the economic and resources maps. Thoses are maybe the most important ones.

What if brazil broke up? they clearly have some border territories too so how would that go down?

The break up of France would be interesting especially with their overseas regions linked French Guiana, New Caledonia, Réunion, etc.