Little known fact. Towards the end of the war the Germans were placing officers and senior NCOs into Austrian Hungary units and those units performed much much better. If CP was united, the AH would do much better than in our time line assuming the Germans were running the show. Also AH railroads and general economics were a mess. Hungary was hoarding food resulting in excess hunger elsewhere for example.
If Germany was in total control the first is more realistic but I’m not sure they would’ve been able to break through on both fronts so easily with full control irl. Somewhere in between the two scenarios is most likely.
In my opinion First scenario is more likely because Russia is seperated from others and Italy and France can be easily split also Central powers are less diverse as compared to the Entente
The problem with the first scenario is that you didn't transfer the troops from the other countries, so France alone didn't have enough troops to cover the eastern front
