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I think the ottomans would be allied to the brits and Prussians, a war is likely to happen either in the 1860's (like the prusso-austrian and Franco-Prussian wars for example) or the early 20th century as ww1, depending on when the war happens, Prussia might dominate the continent with the help of Britain or it might be stomped out by the French and Russians early in its tracks. It's a very interesting scenario no one has really talked about, keep up the good work Mr. Potential and always remember you will grow big quite soon! Have a great day!
Honestly, thinking about it, it's really weird that the UK joined the Entente instead of the triple alliance or central powers. The only thing that pushed them to the entente was the Anglo - German naval arms race. But they had just finished the Great Game with Russia and had also just fought France in the Napoleonic Wars. Honestly it would make sense for the ottomans to ally with Germany and Britian so make an unstoppable alliance that would probably take over the continent. Edit: I just remembered Belgium so yes I'm something of a retard myself
A couple of things: - Viscount Castlereagh was equally as important as Metternich in shaping the Vienna Congress deals, and as a good friend of Tsar Alexander I and strongly moderated the Tsar's opinion on things - Prussia wanted Westphalia more than they wanted Saxony or Posen, so would never agree to such a Russian where they didn't get Westphalia
I agree, especially the Westphalia thing was a major mistake on my part. Prussia had already taken control of these lands before the Congress and it had already been agreed by the Great Powers that Prussia shall expand their holdings in the West to counter any potential French attack.
One correction, France wasn’t occupied, as the 1814 Treaty of Paris removed all allied troops from France (in return for France recalling the troops that it still had in Italy, Germany and even Poland)
You can't just put Poland in the middle of the thumbnail and only mention them getting annexed by Russia, dammit! We had the November Uprising of 1830 and Spring of Nations movements. Wouldn't an independent Poland be perfect to punish Russia and/or Prussia depending on the scenario? Overall great video!
I think a more accurate way to look at would be two 40ish year windows of peace because the 1855-1870 period had a lot of great power wars. While there was never a war all the great powers were involved in most were involved.
I have a scenario. What if the Chartist movement in the 1830s ended with a British Republican Revolution. A British Republic scenario in the 19th century is rarely done and it would be lead to many interesting questions.
Not so sure how different a Republican Britain would be in terms of foreign policy (outside of perhaps a closer relationship to America). The Monarchy was already essentially defanged and removed from day to day governance by the time of the accession of Queen Victoria.
That wasn't the point of the Chartist movement. AFAIK mostly it wasn't a republican movement, it was a constitutional reform movement intent on making Parliament less corrupt, not replace the monarchy.
@@kaiserkonnigratzer1528 Because it means Britain no longer will seek to preserve the old order of Europe and is more likely to side with radical forces such as nationalism, the monarchy was defanged but specifically in relation to its old position of having near absolute control, they still had a lot of political influence and many prime ministers rose and fell at their behest.
If there was going to be an outright revolution in Britain it would have occurred either in the 1790s or 1840s most likely, there was a huge amount of political turmoil in these two decades
Only one critique… during the Russo-Prussian exchange of Saxony for Poland, the powers of France, Britain, Austria, Bavaria and Hanover all began to mobilise once more. The exchange would be disastrous for Austria and Britain. Austria only maintained relevancy through its friendship with & protection of minor states, and the British public were vocal about independence for Saxony and Poland. And Lord Liverpool, the PM of the UK, was threatening war. France wishes for an independent Saxony and Poland as they were France’s historical allies in their respective regions… The exchange going ahead would’ve meant another war. War was only prevented in our timeline as the Congress gave Prussia the Rhineland in return for them leaving southern Saxony. Without Prussia, the Russia Tsar gave in and maintained as pseudo-independent Kingdom of Poland.
according to many historians war was most likely to start in 1814 (between all the great powers) but the return of Napoléon in 1815 gather them against France. Great-Brittain, Austria and France even made an alliance againts Russia and Prussia. All these countries were ready to go to war
One big change is that Ferdinand VII of Spain is not restored by the French intervention, leading to Spain being able to sent armies to the americas and crushing Bolivar's Colombia's separatist movements and Jose de San Martin's in Argentina. Spain is by far and away, the biggest winner in this scenario
So you say but it was only a matter of time before Spain would be too weak to maintain its power. The US would likely still win against them when Cuba stuff happens since theyd need a constant military presence in their remaining colonies to keep them in check from indepandance mouvement. Etc... So they are a winner, but its not exactly stable and can fall apart in a single war
Not a single war exactly hahaha. Spain lost many wars before and their holding on the Americas remained the largest by far. I agree that the US would very likely still win, but remember that the literal only reason South America and Mexico declared independence was Ferdinand VII. Without him, Spain would have remained a monster for at least another century.@@Freedmoon44
"Britain looked upon this map and thought it was good." I flashed an image in my head of Britain smacking the map saying *'dat shit look good!!* at this line.
Possible future for this scenario: Britain, Prussia, Portugal, Spain and the Ottoman Empire join to fight against Russia and France; crushing them. As such, Spain gets Morocco and Algeria as colonies, the Ottomans don't collapse and gain some territories in the Caucasus from Russia, and Prussia unifies the German States (except Austria, which collapses later thanks to nationalist revolutions), leading them to later become a colonial power. Italy eventually unifies though.
@@benismannwithout Britain crushing the ottomans in ww1, it would definitely take longer for them to collapse. Empires rarely collapse without a devastating war
In out timeline the Revolutionaries made the offer to the Prussian king to be the emperor of a parliamentarian monarchy of a united Germany (without Austria). I could see that in this timeline he could get a similar offer and accept it which would have quite a few results: - no French-German "Erbfeindschaft" - faster german industrialisation (the policies from before and after the failed revolution were a big hindrance to it) - there were a lot of smart people (especially students and university professors) who fled after the revolution to especially the US and Australia, this would not happen - way more unified population; in out timeline there was quite some discontent with the German Empire by former non-Prussian states which was "solved" by leaning even more into Nationalism and Militarism than Prussia did already; this wouldn't be needed leading to a potentially way more peaceful Germany
And ironically it could mean France wouldnt necessarly have the Alsace-Moselle revanchism thus it would be less focused on African colonisation early on unless smt happened that established Germany as the new continental power without a question
As always a well thought Alternetive Timeline. Thank you. But this AT has one big point: the weakness of the Austrians. Austria had been dominated by Metternich through and because of the successful Congress of Vienna. Lacking this success it is questionable if he would stay in power. But his system of oppression - so falsly claimed as "Biedermeier" - froze Austrian progression for 2 -3 generations. You will find many inventions which were realised outside of Austria because of this system. Generally Metternich had been dispised by many for is hands in the dalliance between Habsburg and Napoleon, so a Prusso-Russian Alliance against Austria and the occupation of Poland by Russia and Saxony by Prussia would mostly finish his fate. And that would change a lot: a) Prussia without the Rhine provinces but conquering Saxony would have his army there and not in Belgian in 1815 b) Belgium as Austrian Netherlands (inclusive Luxemburg and Lüttich) would need Austrian troops, which may play the Prussian role in Napoleons 1815 campaign. c) As in 1866 with Hannover you may think that the Saxon Royal court and many of its loyalists would go to Austria - as had happened with many Saxonian officers and troops in the Seven Year War. d) So Prussia in this timeline would be mostly an agrarian feudal state lacking the future industrial core region of Germany - trhe Rhineland; in addition a highly populated region (~3,0 Mio in 1816 - 10% of the population of the German Confederation) The Prusso-Russian alliance may had Sweden forced to give Sweden-Pomeria to Prussia and making the Scandinavion Kingdoms strong enemies - Denmarck would annex Holstein and Lauenburg maybe even Oldenburg and the three Hanseatic cities (at least their would by some form of alliance:. Prussia would be controlled by the agrarian Junckers and their conservativ-militaristic world view. e) After the final defeat of Napoleon 1815 by an English-Dutch-(North-)German and Austrian-(South-)German Alliance, maybe with a few more battles than in our timeline but with the same end result! So Great Britain and Austria would now dictate this peace and they would go again with two middöe states between France and Austria - in the south an enlarged Piemont with its former territories occupied by France and maybe some additional fertile lands in southern France and the Italian Corsica (which had been Genuees which had been then Piemont too). f) In the north may have two solutions: 1. Austria holds to the rich Austrian Netherlands and takes the catholic Rhineland while Hannover will be enlarged by Westfalia. As for Prussia in our timeline there would come a Zollverein between the two Austrian parts and the southern German states. 2. Alternative there may be the rebirth of an idea born short before the French revolution: the creation of a third large German state beside Prussia and Austria: a Wittelsbach kingdom at the lower Rhine. (1779/80 tried emperor Joseph II. to exchange the Austrian Netherlands with Bavaria - which ended with a defeat against Fredrick II. in the so called Austro-Prussian potato war). Now it may happend: the Wittelsbach dynasty would get a kingdom formed of the palateate of the Rhine, the Rhine-province, including the former Bavarian duchies of Jüllich and Berg and parts of the former French/German duchies of Lotheringa and Bar as the Elsasss and former Austrian Sundgau and the Austrian Netherlands inclusive Luxemburg and parts of their lost territories to France. Austria would become Bavaria which would additional boost its German population part of the empire. In this AT there would be two big catholic and protestantic German states with a protestantic Netherland in the west and a protestantic Danish-North-German Kingdom in the north with a few states between. The two big powers would be Great Britain and Russia which would clash in the declining Ottoman empire, Persia, India and China. A few further thoughts: In this AT there will be now Holy Allinace which pressured the middle states in Germany to make liberal reforms. And already Joseph II. wanted reforms which would strongly reduced the influence of the catholic church in Austria and Francis I had bad a very liberal education as prince of Tuscany before his father became emperor Leopold II. He became more and more conservative with the long war but his brothers Charles and Johann ahad been reformers - one of the military and one political economical and socially - married to the daugther of a simple post master - he had been Germanies Reichsverweser in 1848/49; so Austrias development from 1815 in this AT might be strongly differ to the non-development under the Metternich police state. The Wittelsbach Rhine-kingdom - mostly catholic with a mixed French-German border population might have a future with some possible reforms. With the stability of the occupied kingdoms of Saxony and Bavaria I`m doubtful; the populations might be lethargic after nearly 25 years of war but how well the integration would go might well depend on the economic and legal development in Austria and Prussia. The situation in Italy had been very different: while in Germany the kings and princes of the most territories stayed in power eliminated the kings of Piemont all other ruling houses and put the pope under siege. Even at the begin of the 20th century had been the language differences in Italy so big that people from the south had trouble to speak to those of the north. And its unification war in 1848/49 had been a military desaster.
I like this. The overall idea that Metternich didn't influence Austria as strongly after Napoleon is very intriguing. Especially since the most decisive part against Prussia was missing military innovativeness, this development where Metternich didn't introduce a whole way of thinking could've changed that. Then again, conservatism was strong in that time, so I'm not sure how much of that was Metternich's influence.
Something which could detail this timeline is when the revolutions took place. If the hungarians revolt before the german pan nationalists the Austrians might be more willing to support german unification, potentially keeping Austria as a central player.
This is great. In all honesty I think the German revolution would succeed. It failed in real life because the people wanted the king of Prussia to be king of Germany, with Prussian prestige so low in your scenario as well as Austria’s along side the growing treat of Russia and a resurgent France. The German people would take power added with the patriotism and nationalism of the time it would most likely lead to a nationalized for of socialism.
I'd see the Hungarian siding with Britain and Prussia, mostly because if Austria wins what stops them from taking back Hungery. But I see this as an win for the British and Prussians, since Britain has only gotten stronger and richer and Prussia now had informal dominant over all the German states. Though the peace would be difficult since Britain has to let prussia take its old Polish border from the Russians from the last partition of Poland. While trying to make sure they don't become a threat. Though this would end with an early German unification and Britain treating Germany as it did France and let them deal with the continent while they did anything but.
Didn't poland exist only on paper even before the napoleonic wars? Im always fascinated how it was partitioned in 1790s but ppl still wont shut up about it just because austria and britain wanted to bring it back
- put Poland in the middle of the minature - completely ignore the January Uprising and how diffirent it could've went if Hungary won it's own insurgency.
i Like this Scenario but realistically if the balance of power is so focused on Austria (even more than in our own timeline) wouldn't Brittan step in to help Austria suppress the Hungarian revolts? like its not like Brittan would just watch this all lying down, i mean at the least i think they would step in when Austrian territory is annexed
Post 1848, we have the Wars of German (re)Unification and the Wars of Italian re(Unification) AND the Crimean War. In Real Life 1848 did mark the end of the "Long Peace" and the fundamental collapse of the Metternich system...
if the Hungarians were successful in their revolution, would that inspire other minorities to revolt? would any minor power use the chaos of this timeline to get stronger? i can see any successful revolutions in europe inspiring revolt in the ottomans for example. but countries like Sweden? could they for go their neutrality ideals in this timeline? i also feel that the Netherlands colonies were only handed back to them by the British during the congress. if no congress, would britain even give them up?
the reason the austrians werent able to crush the hungarians by themseves was bc they were refusing to let go off italy, since they could count on russian help and they calculated the price to pay to russia would be no greater than the price of losing italy. But if they were TRULY desperate, and had to choose between hungary and italy, theyd obviously chose hungary. so in that case what would probably happen is piedmon unifying italy earlier instead of the complete collapse of austria, and maybe german unification coming earlier too bc of austria weakness, but they would not just disintegrate like you suggested
i suggest one different thing .. Napoleon will remain on the throne , because that he was asking to the other powers , now no is saying No , since there is no congress , and since he is on the throne of a wekened France he would not start a war leading to Waterloo ( that was just for confirm him on the throne ) , and establish a dinasty , his son is both Bonaparte and Hasburg leading to an alliance with Austria and the Cathoilcs aganst Prussia and Russia . France of Napoleon II ( half French and half Habsburg ) helps Austria against Hungary ,and a Prussian enlargement on the Rhine in exchange for a change in italian influence . the German comunity except Prussia is under Austria , the Italia is under France protectorate , and this bloc is strong enough to stand against Prussia and Russia in a balance of powers that stops Prussia or Russia to start a war against Austria ,The GB is happy because there is no one that can claim to be hegemon in Europe and marry all the 4 major dinasties .
You should also mention the consequences on Spain and Portugal! If there were no alliance probably Spain could end up in a civil war or under a successful liberal democratic Spain that could change the global balance or at least stay as an empire with Cuba and the Philippines!
is this timeline where schleswig was never lost to the germans? also in 11:22 is there any background for why Denmark is in red with GB and Prussia? it would make more sane to it be ally with Russia
When Tsar Alexander demanded all of Poland, he didn’t just mean Congress Poland + Posen. He meant that AND the Polish-speaking provinces of Prussia and Austria. The King of Prussia came to a handshake agreement with Russia where he would GIVE his parts of Poland to Russia in exchange for being allowed to annex all of Saxony. It was only stopped after the personal intervention of the Prussian foreign minister. Austria, on the other hand, was prepared to cede their Polish-speaking provinces not to Russia, but to a fully independent Polish state, just for the sake of preventing such a deal. A war between Great Powers might not break out over Poland, but should Russia demand all of Poland, you should expect to see a Polish uprising backed by Austria, and small German states seeking protection from Prussia seeking closer relations with Austria.
Without Russian help, I think the habsburgs would just eat their pride and compromise with Hungary creating Austria-Hungary earlier. The habsburgs arent stupid and wont continue trying to destroy Hungary if they know help isnt coming.
I don't think the German states would turn to Prussia as their protector in this scenario - at least not after it annexed Saxony. They'd all be afraid that they're next (much like in our timeline where, at least the bigger German states, were quite warybof expansionist Prussia). Also, it's questionable if a Prussia without the rich Posen, Westfalia, and Rhineland provinces would be nearly as powerful as in our timeline. Without these rich provinces as compensation for the losses in the napoleonic wars, Prussia wouldn't be a better protector than Austria, even if Austria lost its Hungarian half. Also, since Autria is in this timeline, much more influential in both Italy and Germany, and has control over Belgium, it's quite possible that it wouldn't even need Russian help to deal with the Hungarians as they start into the revolutions in a much more powerful state than in our timeline. Also, it's questionable whether the revolutions would've happened at all since the unification movement in Germany was largely based on reforming the German confederation. Since the confederation wouldn't exist in this scenario, revolutionaries wouldn't have a political body to refer to in their demands. The German speaking world would've been made out of complete independent nations with completely different politics and alliances now. For example, without the German Confederation, Hannover would probably be much closer aligned with the UK, Oldenburg much closer to Russia etc. so the whole situation and system of alliances in 1848 will be entirely different. Last but not least, I wouldn't count on Tsar Nicolas I. withholding aod for Austria, even if the interests of the two countries were different, because in our timeline, he didn't just help Austria because it was an ally. He helped because it was a matter of principle. To allow for the people of a country to successfully rise up against their annointed sovereign during a time when revolutions were happening all over Europe could've sparked revolutions in Russia as well. Nicolas I. was known for seeing himself as a protector of the divine institution of the monarchy, so he wouldn't have allowed for that institution to be challenged right next to him.
That’s WRONG!! Russia would have never gained all of Poland. The russian tsar and the king of prussia made a Deal in 1813 in the treaty of kalisz. Russia should get the duchy of warsaw but WITHOUT the province of posen. The Territory of Posen should become a part of prussia. And Saxony should also go to prussia.
Instead of helping Austria against the Hungarian revolte Russia will start its conquest of the Black sea and make war on the Ottomans. Freeing the slavs would from islamic rule would the doctrine to justify to conquer Istanbul and get allies like Hungary and Italy which will form earlier with a weak Austria which later also follow the Russians and expend into Bosnia
Wait one of your possible scenarios is would France become resurgent? Even in your alternate timeline I think not. Lol as my history teacher once said, France forgot how to win wars after they lost Napoleon.
@@rosanero5250 No they had help from the British Empire, her colonies Canada, India, Africa, British Caribbean & later the USA, so I personally don't count it. That war was also one of attrition, each side slugging it out without any real progress to see who blinks first.
@@EagleLeader1 that’s not a real defense as Germany had Allies and it started as a war of momentum and the French mobilized the most troops for the western front
@@rosanero5250 the German allies weren't concentrated on the Western Front they were busy holding back the Russians. If we started using your measurements of contribution then Britain, Canada & the US should suddenly get credit for keeping the Russians at bay on the Eastern Front. Also most of the famous battles & breakthroughs on the Western Front belonged to Britain and Canada not France.
what if alexander the great lived till 69 years old?(And didnt lose any power and kept getting smarter) Or what if the triumvirate never happened or caesar failed his conquest of gaul and got killed by some gallic soldiers there? Or what if justinian successfully restored most of the western roman empire and also beat the persians decisively and the justinian plague never happened and they only had to conquer italy once. Or what if the whole of the german confederation unified with the austrians to form the "Austro-Germanic Empire" and hungary was handed to some habsburg relatives.(but prussia will become a puppet of russia like the polish lithuanians before them)
So sad that the idea of an europe without the anti-liberal alliance wasn't expanded on, for example the carlist wars wouldn't have happend, and some colonies could have been maintained instead of loosing it all
Religion was not the only factor to the Belgian Revolution, I think it was inevitable. The Belgians already had a revolution in 1789 (The Brabantine Revolution) against Austria and as Austria weakens and the privileges and standards of living of the Belgians diminish the memory of the Brabantine Revolution would spark another revolution, and if unsuccessful another one. Belgium would eventually gain independance and since Britain would not allow this strategic territory to fall in French or Prussian hands they would either secure Belgian Independance or try to give it to the Dutch (thus sparking another Revolution with the same context as in our timeline). At that point in time Belgian Independance is inevitable because of all those factors I think
