Thank you for the comment! It's very clear to see that there is uneven coverage on Musk, so much so that it actually starts to become comical at times. Futurism used to adore him (we used to joke about that in our articles), then suddenly they just pivoted like mad into criticizing his every move. There are "journalists" now with X feeds that post nothing but negative commentary on Musk and Tesla. Every day. Frankly, it's quite puzzling why some people love to hate him so much all of a sudden. Joe P.
I already anticipated Tesla's price war over market share. Older investors like myself have seen multiple industry changes. I remember going from paying for long distance to cell phone service, from watching TV to using streaming, and using snail mail to email. In all these changes, many of the old players survive the transition. That meant during the EV transition, I knew many of the old car companies would survive the transition and Tesla would be part of the market, not all of the market like some Tesla cult members were trying to sell people. But I still invested in Tesla because they have a quality product, a well run business, and amazing technology. I think they still look attractive at 180 or under long-term. Once you take off the Tesla cult member glasses and ignore the Tesla haters, you can analyze a company that was successful enough to drive the EV transition, carve out a dominant market share, and is developing car tech that will make them a major player going forward that can leverage their tech into their own vehicles and sell it other car companies as an OEM provider. Definitely need to manage your risk with Tesla, but it has a good risk-reward profile going forward.
Great comment, great sentence starting with "Once you take off the Tesla cult member glasses and ignore the Tesla haters." Try to use valuation targets as opposed to price targets (makes it easier to adjust over time. Thank you for sharing some great thoughts on Tesla.
I agree but also many companies did not survive the transitions. Right now the EV landscape is a great focus point for disruptive tech. For example, here in Michigan you cannot buy from BYD (same for all Americans) but more ridiculous, because of dealer laws, in order to buy a Tesla you need to purchase it from a dealership outside of the state. There are also ongoing obstruction of adopting to a single charging standard. I personally hope that the US opens to both Chinese vehicles and direct market sales. I think both would be of benefit. But the Biden Administration seems to hate Musk, and the Trump Administration seems to hate China. So who knows where this will go...
@@factotums I don't like building up the Chinese economy. America has built so many monsters it has had to fight after building them up that I don't know why we did it again with China. They are obviously not democratizing and are building up a massive military with the financial investment we sent there. Why we did that thinking China would democratize is beyond me. China seems like another American built monster that is going to cause major issues in the world that America made a mistake building up over the years without any assurance they would democratize. Now they have a American built economy with vast resources and manufacturing the world relies on with a Chinese Central Command government looking to expand their power base without any moral limitations in place for who they do business with or what those nations do. And their people cannot stop them or the Central Command government just kills them. Unless China starts to Democratize, they may be the biggest mistake America ever made thinking if they just did business over the years China would democratize and join the world in freedom. It hasn't happened and I'm not sure it will before it comes to blows.
@Nanalyze I agree with pretty much the whole video, it was well presented. The one quibble I have is that Tesla didn't say growth would be down this year 2024, it said it "may" be down because production may be impacted by Next Generation vehicle production. I make this point, because this isn't guidance, it is a warning, which is very different. For example, they took Model 3 production offline to prepare for Highland, this was a planned shutdown, which would have a predetermined impact on production. One of the things Tesla also stated is that if interest rates came down, sales/margins would/could improve. They are talking out of both sides of their mouth here, but that is kind of understandable, given the macro environment. It should be noted that Apple experienced the same sudden drops every now and then because many analysts and firms need quarter-to-quarter results to help bring in new business. Few invest for the long term in any one company. Loved the commentary, keep them coming.
Thank you very much for pointing out the nuance in their comments. The "drop" wasn't that meaningful to be honest when you consider how volatile the stock is. What's more notable is the correction over the past month. It's not a bad thing at all. We should always want to buy quality stocks at lower prices. Glad you found the commentary useful and we'll keep 'em coming.
@@user-ns1ln9nd6b Does FSD always drive at or below speed limit? I sure don't want this to be like a bunch of VW Bus from the 60's clogging the streets and the highways.
FSD 12 is trained by people and doesn’t know anything about the law. Doesn’t stop at stop signs unless there is other vehicles present because that’s what it observed with a million hours of experience. I think they set it 10mph over as top speed.
I’m just taking the DCA approach to bite at it in 0.1 share chunks every hour or few hours so as to simply settle the “I must do something” itch. We can’t pretend it doesn’t look like a great opportunity (and perhaps the last), so at least I’m getting something and if it does dip very low, I funnel in then
Love your DCA approach, biting slowly over time. That's always better than trying to call a bottom (though our fortune teller did quite well last dip using a simple valuation ratio target). This is a volatile ride so expect anything. Like any stock, investors can always be blindsided by company-specific risk as well (Musk gets hit by a bus, etc.).
I think if Tesla doesn’t make good on several of the promises that have been made for a while now Tesla stock will join regular auto stock valuations. That is a big gamble especially with the byd affordable autos coming out. At the end of the day people are going to buy what they can afford and not as much what is really expensive and comes with hyped promises. I only hold Tesla in so much that it is unfortunately in every index I hold in some way and amount ( many things are and it takes time to make sure you’re really diversifying). I’m comfortable with my Ira and 401k that are managed ( to some extent) to hold Tesla so I’m not missing the bus entirely if there is a bus. I don’t and won’t for now hold it alone. My funds are covering it enough ( and most probably most of everyone’s are). When and if Tesla slips and does not make good then my funds will slowly weed it out I’m trusting and I won’t have to worry as much.
Joe ...A believe that since Tesla is in a Growth Mode and Really didn't give Wall Street the Guidance "they" wanted to hear and firm numbers .... Wall Street just dumped the Stock ... And us Long Term Retail investors are Buying every chance we can as it lowers ... Thank You for the Videos!!!!! And Replying to our comments...
A 12% drop for a volatile stock is really just noise. The YTF movement is probably more indicative of whatever "discount" is on offer here. We did a piece on "Tesla''s rich valuation" that's probably worth a watch here (ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-UNmxIOrhWUI.html). You're very welcome for the video (we thank the paying subs who make this possible), and we'll always make sure the comments are an insightful place to peruse as well. Joe P.
Imo, there’s only 2 companies using A.I. in the real world, Amazon and Tesla. I don’t consider a search engine A.I. or a social media platform. There’s no other company in the world that’s remotely close to how far Elon and his team have come.
@@ayoutubewatcher7009 Would agree that social media is probably one of the weakest use cases for the power of AI. Search engine? Maybe not as they're currently defined. We don't have an opinion about how far along Tesla or Amazon's respective AI efforts are and will probably have to let their progress as companies do the talking, though once it works they won't call it AI anymore ;)
One important factor missing from the facts you listed is the Cybertruck production ramp. That has just started and one forecast expects an annual run rate of 100k to be reached by the end of 2024. Hence the Cybertruck ramp will raise average selling price for 2024. Initially overheads will be spread over low volume, but as volume ramps up, the margin on Cybertruck sales might well be healthy later in 2024 and into 2025. ☮️
Good point on Cybertruck ramp. Musk said, "something like a quarter million Cybertrucks a year in North America" if all goes well and things get ramped up as expected. He also said, "this is very much a production-constrained situation, not a demand-constrained situation," which implies that it's largely a matter of filling orders at this point. Thank you for the comments.
Really glad to hear that! Yes, the audio could be better as I'm often on the road. Hopefully the latest videos are okay. I know we have a consistency problem but we're eventually going to bring in some consultants (the Bobs) to help us figure out how to do the best audio with minimal equipment. Joe P.
Always appreciate your level -headed objective take. Have you done or are you planning to do any piece on cybersecurity? Don’t recall seeing one from you recently. Looking into this now and value your insight
Our website will probably be the best place to look for our cybersecurity research (43 written pieces under this tag: www.nanalyze.com/tag/cybersecurity/). Glad you're enjoying the channel!
Excellent summary of information about the Tesla annual results; thanks for sharing. It is revealing that the hit pieces smearing the CEO concealed almost all of the important facts which you listed. The sky high P/E ratio does still price in exceptional growth for many years. I would be interested to hear about your expectations for earnings in 2024 and beyond. ☮️
We're really glad you enjoyed this piece! It's really odd how tough it is to find an objective take on Tesla these days. Estimating earnings is an exceptionally difficult thing to do which is why so many Wall Street analysts waste loads of time and largely get things wrong half the time. We decided to save some time and hired a Romanian fortune teller who we keep on staff. Unfortunately she's back in Romania dealing with some sick livestock so we don't have any opinion on Tesla's future earnings.
They're also purchasing from Panasonic and even BYD, right? Musk said in the call, "You know, Panasonic, obviously, is our longest, supplier. They're an amazing company. You know, we -- we've got CATL , we got, LG, you know, and BYD." Any idea what percentage of batteries used are manufactured in house?
Good point on hiring. Hardcore dev nerds (and I am one) will understand when I say this (I worked in startups for many years as a software engineer). Who wouldn't want to work for Musk? Joe P.
@kimketchmark4991 "hire the best engineers in the world ." This is probably the most important statement that goes undervalued. I have worked in IT my whole life, the company that people want to work for is #1 SpaceX and #2 Tesla. This is more important that people can understand, the top engineers are looking for a place, were they can express themselves/ideas. This talent is really the value of Tesla and is what makes it unique. Solving the big things will only come from human ingenuity, AI is not that advanced yet....
Looks like you're unfortunately far off in your conclusion, which sounded like you're recommending buying Tesla. Well, here we are, almost 3 months later and the stock just hit $153 today. Though I agree on your last statement, watch on the Chinese, especially BYD. I really don't get this constant "investors with a time horizon beyond next year" and such. If I know that all fundamental indicators are pointing towards a falling stock price (and adj. EPS share for that matter) and a growth company doesn't have any growth any more (it's shrinking in deliveries for their core product), then why shouldn't it bother me as a long-term investor? That's why people think they "buy the dip" when all they do is making things worse. If you know the only way short-term is down, sell your stock and invest in something else. Or sell and wait until it really hits rock bottom and all fundamentals are pointing to a great way up in the near-term.
What about our conclusion gave you the impression we're recommending buying Tesla? That's certainly not the case. New investors often have a difficult time looking past short-term noise and focusing on the original thesis of their investments. Your last few statements sound exactly like the newbie mistakes that everyone makes at some point ;) No one can time the rock bottom, and thinking you can is a fool's game. When "all fundamentals are pointing to a great way up in the near-term" the share price will likely have already recovered and you'd have been better off just staying invested and not trying to time the market (a feat that
@@Nanalyze Can’t attach a screenshot but I just that with shortening Tesla between 2:11:38am (on GMT+8) at $157.64 and closing it at 2:17:19 at $155.95 - I shortened only 2,000 shares, will be more aggressive next time. So yes, if you’re able to define support and resistance levels in a highly volatile stock like Tesla then you can make a lot of money in 6m 19s. Oh and last 6 months return is 116.22% so far or $454,589,40. So maybe I’m lucky but I’m lucky for the 6 months in a row ;-)
@@Nanalyze let me know how I can send you an email and happy to send screenshots of all of the above data that I just wrote, directly from my trading tool. Just to proof that you’re wrong, including this comment. Hard work pays off, you said it yourself. Goodnight
I think the new manufacturing process just takes time to engineer. Consider that that on the earnings call they said they need to even engineer the manufacturing machines themselves, i. e. can't just buy them from a supplier from catalog. That alone would normally be a 3-years delay (maybe it was, I suppose they started quite some time ago). It also takes significant engineering resources. Now everything hinges on whether they will be able to actually find a better way of mass manufacturing vehicles than the current way.
@@Martinit0 Sounds about right! This is what Arrival tried to do and they had their behinds handed to them. It's a remarkably tough thing to do as Musk has talked about before regarding version one of their manufacturing platform.
My personal opinion why Tesla didn't give firm guidance for 2024 is that they want more operational flexibility. They likely felt quite boxed in with their 2023 volume guidance which forced them to lower prices in order to meet that guidance. Maybe then in 2024 they won't have to go for volume at all costs (or at least not be forced to)?
All the other companies have started making EVs and BYD is coming with a lot of speed from behind. In 3-5 years the EV business will be full of various models and a lot of competition. If i want to "translate" what Elon said in the meeting is: "I quite the car industry and i am focusing in AI, robots and space industry.."
That might be what you read in some media article, but it's not what was said in the call. People can read the content for themselves which our video was based on - verbatim in most cases. No need to mislead people. And the EV industry is already full of competitors - over 400 companies in China alone. The competition is already here.
@@Nanalyze No much EV competition in US. TSLA dominates the US & Australia small market & BYD will face serious political challenge to enter the US market. BYD dominates Asia. Europe is a toss up as they start investigating BYD for dumping their cars but BYD is winning there so far. BYD makes hybrid & EV cars so I don't know the exact sales number for EV only they sold per region. Can TSLA compete with BYD globally? It will be hard because BYD will overwhelm you with lower price. If TLSA wants to compete with BYD by producing the $25K EV, this will bring down the brand quality perception. TSLA is a luxury brand. I do not see Lexus or BMW sells $25K cars. But if TSLA stick with $60K+ EV, they will be catering to higher income customers but there are not so many of them so TSLA growth will be limited. TLSA stock P/E is high because people are expecting high growth. If TSLA does not grow fast, the stock will subsequently decline fast
Such tunnel vision. Where is the success exactly? Tesla: Poor production quality, Poor value and terrible to repair. SpaceX: Successfully made a stick rocket to land and still is not reusable just refurbish Hable with no signs of saving money. Actual possible contributor to spaceflight ( starship ) has yet to make it to space. Starlink: A 40k Satellite constellation that must be replaced every 4 to 5 years to supply slightly better satellite Internet for many times more the cost for those who don’t live near a town. Hyper loop: dead on arrival. Solar root tiles: dead on arrival. NeuroLink: dead on arrival Twitter: most expensive piece of garbage ever bought.
The best selling vehicle in the world has poor production quality, value and repairability? You talk to Tesla owners much? That's news to us. SpaceX sets new rocket record with 96 successful launches in 2023. Starlink has over 5,289 mass-produced small satellites in low Earth orbit servicing over 70 countries. NeuroLink is hardly DOA with progress being made. Twitter setting record traffic levels with 75% of the worthless staff kicked to the curb. The Boring Company is still operating in Vegas. Mate, lay off the haterade. You're not making a good case here. And this was about Tesla, so let's stick to talking about that please.
Sorry, I need to chime in here. People who say Elon Musk isn't successful lose all their credibility for saying something so blatantly stupid. For those of us who have spent our careers building companies, the accomplishments this man has made are nothing short of mind boggling. Joe P.
Usually i would think your idea of asking owners to validate the functionality and economics is the way to go. However I think talking to a tesla owner that's positive is not always the best way to asses the situation. It's much easier to fool someone than to convince someone that they were fooled. People are financially and emotionally invested in this thing. But would they buy again? In Europe their cars are expensive, it's hard to get good service, their real cost of ownership is not low enough to justify high purchase price. If you travel long distances it is a time consuming endeavor. I experienced +35% time to drive from holland to south of France in model S. Not everywhere great charging. Versatility is low. I need to drag small trailers often. I do agree we should stick to the topic of Tesla. Musk has some great achievements but I am not trading my ICE "stupid horse" for a Tesla level 5 autonomy potential robotaxi with a net present value of 200,000 USD any time soon. I'm extremely confident I'll respectfully wait until next year, next year, next year, next year, next year. @Nanalyze @@Nanalyze
@Jop_Kop Excellent comment, thank you for that. You make a good point because +90% of Tesla buyers in 2023 had never purchased a Tesla before. While that could be because existing Tesla owners love their cars so much, it could be for reasons you suggest. Our comment on talking to Tesla owners was more relating to Tesla not needing to market thus far (they only began recently to spend marketing dollars) because presumably word of mouth was so effective in selling their cars. Thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts as a Tesla owner!
Starlink is extremely useful in remote areas eg mining, farming etc , they need to work on customer service, but if I could invest I would as eventually they will print money.
