Тёмный

What would happen if China invaded Taiwan? Wargames predict likely outcomes and possible scenarios 

Government Matters
Подписаться 12 тыс.
Просмотров 23 тыс.
50% 1

Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.), senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), discusses wargames hosted by CSIS to simulate what would happen if the U.S. responded to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
Follow our social media for the latest updates:
Twitter: / govmatterstv
LinkedIn: / government-matters
Facebook: / govmatters
Subscribe to the Government Matters podcast: govmatters.tv/podcast/
For more information, visit govmatters.tv/
Government Matters is a multi-platform news program dedicated to providing non-partisan information and analysis to federal managers, contractors and those supporting the federal marketplace. Hosted by Mimi Geerges, the show airs weeknights at 8 and 10:30 on WJLA 24/7 News and Sunday mornings at 10:30 on 7News.

Опубликовано:

 

7 июн 2024

Поделиться:

Ссылка:

Скачать:

Готовим ссылку...

Добавить в:

Мой плейлист
Посмотреть позже
Комментарии : 114   
@ylu7450
@ylu7450 Год назад
An excellent wargame simulation would be adjusting the input parameters in the simulation software until the perceived enemy loses
@pitster1105
@pitster1105 8 месяцев назад
Two carriers is 10,000 + dead sailors. Each carrier has a crew size of 5000 or more.
@evaldocarvalho2404
@evaldocarvalho2404 Год назад
These US aircraft carriers are too easy to be sink
@todaydelta9854
@todaydelta9854 Год назад
Hello GAO LO , this is family's matter
@sooteekeng5678
@sooteekeng5678 Год назад
I guess most news media will close down without talking about China n Taiwan issue.
@parklilys3108
@parklilys3108 Год назад
America only bullied small countries and won but has not won wars against relatively sized countries in Asia since 1950s. Korea and Vietnam wars came to mind if you wanted examples. Fighting a war against China with nuclear weapons is not easily comprehensible. We need to talk and promote peace instead of wars.
@playedout148
@playedout148 Год назад
Those were invasiona and occupations not combat of this sort. The US would have to destroy taiwan manufacturing rather than let China seize it.
@parklilys3108
@parklilys3108 Год назад
@@playedout148 So Taiwan will become Asia's Ukraine.
@thornados4969
@thornados4969 Год назад
Even in wars, there are rules to follow. Nukes are not allowed in conventional war. Using this method means death on either side.
@46FreddieMercury91
@46FreddieMercury91 11 месяцев назад
I'd be curious if China from that point decides on a war of attrition
@RonLWilson
@RonLWilson Год назад
In regard to asymmetric warfare, another options might be to augment Taiwan's fighter jet s with low cost ultra light aircraft such as gyrocopters. These could be armed with light weight stand off weapons such as the BAE guidance kit that can be added to 2.75 inch rockets that would give 2-3 miles stand off range but with a high Pk against most ground based tactical targets due to the precision guidance. The advantage of gyrocopters is that they can take off and land from very small runways and even fields and thus can be dispersed and can be more safely fly at low altitudes in that they do not stall. And (as gyrocopter marketers say, say gyrocopter can do 90% what a helicopter can do and 10% of the operating cost. As such they are not very expensive to buy nor maintain and as a comparison a gyrocopter would cost less than a single Javelin missile. Thus say with the upgrades to carry , launch, and guide the standoff weapon plus other upgrades might bump the cost per gyrocopter to say 500K per aircraft one could still buy 100 aircraft for about 50 million dollars, less than one first line jet fighter. Also, it is not too difficult to learn to flay a gyrocopter, nothing like learning to fly a front line jet fighter. Thus even if one lost all 100 in the first week of an invasion that would be like just losing one jet fighter in regard to cost. Thus this might be a use case that might be worth wargaming to see if such a capability might be of potential value and thus worth further consideration.
@FarmerDrew
@FarmerDrew Год назад
Indubitably! I hereby volunteer to fly the gyrocopter, and I'm on my way in my velocipede. I'm almost there, I'm a score of furlongs away!
@RonLWilson
@RonLWilson Год назад
@@FarmerDrew Well good for you! But it seems you are here conflating low cost with low tech. There is nothing low tech about a modern gyrocopter, especially equipped with stand off weapons and modern avionics.
@RonLWilson
@RonLWilson Год назад
The other thing you seem to be missing here is that Russian artillery poses the biggest threat to Ukraine ground forces. Aa such a low flying gyrocopter would be pretty much immune to most artillery fire and subject mainly to small arms and AAA and man pads, which they can defeat by flying low, and employing terrain masking, combined with stand off weapon delivery and hit and run tactics where one limits any time exposed to counter fire. Plus, being low cost one can buy a lot of them and thus can afford to lose a few as well unlike risking expensive assets.
@FarmerDrew
@FarmerDrew Год назад
@@RonLWilson Do you have a purveyor of gyrocopters that you prefer? I arrived at the aerodrome and they suited me with a Doctor Worthington's Whirling WonderWorks Widget, please sir do tell whichforth of the brands do you fly yourself and is my gyrocopter set to perform in the station you remark towards? Your swift reply is appreciated.
@RonLWilson
@RonLWilson Год назад
@@FarmerDrew Well (for a quick reply) here are ten that seem pretty cool. ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-bGaB0eUDz9Q.html
@charlesburgoyne-probyn6044
@charlesburgoyne-probyn6044 8 месяцев назад
China keeps delaying it for the day which never comes
@yahsb3723
@yahsb3723 Год назад
Why our leaders praying this game
@jonathanjacob5453
@jonathanjacob5453 Год назад
Desperation.
@GoldenKhanate06
@GoldenKhanate06 Год назад
Because they know they will lose economically in the long term so they would rather lose militarily in the short term lol
@waynewilson8714
@waynewilson8714 Год назад
It would be far easier for China to have an army in Taiwan already. A huge force could be disguised as students, workers, athletes etc. China could then takeover Taiwan without shots fired possibly.
@1changi
@1changi 9 месяцев назад
PRC Tourists can come and go. They cannot bring in weapons and subdue the ROC citizens. ROC authorities exercise very strict immigration control.
@philipcoffman4372
@philipcoffman4372 8 месяцев назад
That’s the same sources that predicted Ukraine and nato will win. Today is leopard was destroyed with German crew not mercs
@donkeychan491
@donkeychan491 5 месяцев назад
Yes, and even these biased and overly-optimistic sources predict "tens of thousands" of American casualties.
@tinytoyboxfilms5710
@tinytoyboxfilms5710 Год назад
Exercises of this type (at least in the West) significantly buff up enemy forces to give our troops the most demanding scenarios to confront. However formidable the Chinese military may appear (as said to us by the Chinese themselves), assessments of their true combat capabilities in combat should be taken with a bit of salt.
@jonathanjacob5453
@jonathanjacob5453 Год назад
Are these the same people that predicted the Taliban would have a hard time against the Afghan army?
@getaforeheadreduction6017
@getaforeheadreduction6017 Год назад
Chinese soldiers would certainly lose a land war to the US but naval warfare is more complicated and the Chinese would have the advantage of being at home so little distance to cover either way the causalities on both side would be high
@benjamincapps5258
@benjamincapps5258 Год назад
This seems like George soros swamp news channel
@justinngambi1996
@justinngambi1996 Год назад
My analysis: if the USA decides to defend Taiwan by only striking from their bases, china will easily invade Taiwan and have it's foot soldiers there. That will guarantee china taking over Taiwan. If the USA gets it's foot soldiers on Taiwan well in advance, china will face two serious defences. On land in Taiwan and from behind that is USA bases and Japan. China's aim I not to destroy Taiwan but take over. So the objective is to walk in and subdue it military. Taiwan can only be defended from Taiwan. From outside, it will be difficult.
@dirtbag3736
@dirtbag3736 Год назад
My analysis China loses every ship plane and man we decide to destroy and doesn't get within sight of Taiwan
@getaforeheadreduction6017
@getaforeheadreduction6017 Год назад
​@@dirtbag3736 my analysis is China launches every nuke that it has and Taiwan won't be an issue because we will all be dead
@byron8657
@byron8657 Год назад
As the former Chairman of CCP Deng Xiaoping has said before Taiwan is an immovable goal and target k!
@edwingan1988
@edwingan1988 Год назад
If only they had done this with Ukraine 😂
@muppet50yago36
@muppet50yago36 Год назад
I doubt China would stand much of a chance in 2027. The US have the new AIM-240 missile that can counter the PL-15, not to mention a much smaller RCS on the F-35 compared to the J-16. Yes range is an issue but they do have CV's 2hich can launch at the least 24 F-35's with 4 AIM-240 without pylons. China would struggle with air superiority.
@muppet50yago36
@muppet50yago36 Год назад
@H L I'm so sorry I meant the AIM-260 JATM. It has a 200 km effective range and has joint radar locking capabilities. Which means America parks let's say 30 F-35 with 4 AIM-260 JATM mounted on pylons, they fly 100km from Taiwan and launch all missiles, potentially they could hit aircraft over the channel between Taiwanand China (they don't need stealth much because they won't even have to get within 70 miles). That could potentially wipe out 100 aircraft without a loss. They wouldn't need to get close because they would get a lock from radar stations in Taiwan.The AIM-260 is a game changer. This isn't something Chinese missiles can do. This gives the US air superiority, which means they would be suicidal to send a land invasion fleet. The US wouldn't even need carriers.
@darmanto1963
@darmanto1963 Год назад
well US can try then ... don't forget, the US fought Afghanistan for 20 years and finally withdrawn
@muppet50yago36
@muppet50yago36 Год назад
@@darmanto1963 The US didn't fight Afghanistan, they fought the Taliban. If it was a conventional war the US would have wiped them off the globe, however, because they have support structures in multiple surrounding countries it's easy to hide and come back once the US leaves.
@getaforeheadreduction6017
@getaforeheadreduction6017 Год назад
​@@muppet50yago36 the big aspect is how would China use it's nuclear deterrent if its losing the war One assumes they won't use it because it's suicide but that's the problem with nuclear states in conflict with each other once a side starts losing things get dicey that's why preventing the war is essential because once the war starts who knows what xi will do if he gets desperate
@muppet50yago36
@muppet50yago36 Год назад
@@getaforeheadreduction6017 The reason why China wouldn't go nuclear is because they know it would be suicidal. The US have 3708 nuclear warheads in stockpile currently, in well maintained and well funded facilities. China has 474 in facilities with questionable standards being funded by a socialist government experiencing a recession. You understand? Unless they can create the next continent killer, they won't go nuclear. In my opinion, it would lead to a massive loss of life on the Chinese side which they will never, be able to afford.
@user-uw5nu9jq9m
@user-uw5nu9jq9m 11 месяцев назад
If the PRC breaches the international law of UN CCPR which it signed in 1998 and invades Taiwan, it can no longer stay as a member of UN Security Council. If the UN can neither stop the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nor prevent PRC’s invasion of Taiwan, what is the purpose of the existence of the UN? UN membership fees are money collected from the taxpayers around the world, the pay the taxes to their governments and their governments pay the UN membership fees to UN.
@1changi
@1changi 9 месяцев назад
PRC give no two hoots to UN or to the Court of Hague. Remember, the court ruled that the Spratley Islands be returned to the Philippines. Did China comply? This is when PRC becomes arrogant and US started this rights of navigation passage to agitate PRC. PRC can give verbal warnings but did not take any offensive action to further aggravate US.
@dadidadida123
@dadidadida123 8 месяцев назад
UN is founded by the Big 5. It's not the big 5 need UN, it's UN can not live without Big 5. Country like China and US if not in the UN, UN can achieve nothing. And the world will soon comeback to war state.
@FarmerDrew
@FarmerDrew Год назад
You know India and the Phillipines would jump in to sneak some punches, even if they didn't get overtly involved.
@rishabhsood5133
@rishabhsood5133 Год назад
India would never never intervene militarily, we always have neutrality
@FarmerDrew
@FarmerDrew Год назад
@@rishabhsood5133 That's cute 🥰 India blew up 4 Chinese military officers for stepping over a line, keep it up, India!
@rishabhsood5133
@rishabhsood5133 Год назад
@@FarmerDrewYes they stepped over the border , line of control , but I hardly doubt india will attack China , just because of America or Taiwan . We don’t support snakes
@jonathanjacob5453
@jonathanjacob5453 Год назад
@@FarmerDrew dumb comment
@FarmerDrew
@FarmerDrew Год назад
@@jonathanjacob5453 it's a very well informed comment, as a man that grew up with Indians and Filipinos: they do not like the Chinese Regime!
@1changi
@1changi Год назад
PRC are so good in digging tunnels for their high speed rails, they can dig undersea tunnels right into Taiwan and troops and armour pouring out from their openings in multiple locations across the country. It would be the best trojan horse in surprising the ROC troops expecting a WWII era D-day Normandy style of beach-head in the night. When the Taiwanese people woke up in the morning, they would found their country overtaken. The invasion will be stealthy and well rehearsed and Taiwan will immediately be under the control of PRC. Thereafter, they can lay tracks for their high speed rails to link up with the mainland. What China talked about is not a bridge above waters but under the seabed. Nothing goes to waste. Taiwan will be reunified with the Mainland with minimal shooting. When PLA troops come, they will be dressed in the uniform of the ROC military. They speak the same language. How to tell them apart? Eventually, traffic of goods and people can freely move across both sides. PRC will have complete control over TSMC, ASUS, HTC and other priced industries, not to mention the imperial treasures stored the National Museum at Yang Ming Shan. US, Japan and the rest of the world will watch with shock, feeling absolutely helpless.
@Americanpatriot-zo2tk
@Americanpatriot-zo2tk Год назад
Bullhockey and you’re gonna tell me people wouldn’t notice that we’re gonna do with all the dirt do you know how much they’re going to take 100 mountain? Do you have any idea how easy it would be destroyed?
@dirtbag3736
@dirtbag3736 Год назад
Wait...they would dig under Taiwan? Taiwan which was formed from 100s of millions of years of molten lava solidifying and plate tectonics? You sure you thought this one thru?
@kjimxd6791
@kjimxd6791 Год назад
this is the most hilarious troll I've seen in a while 🤣🤣 good one sir
@anadumuakr4054
@anadumuakr4054 Год назад
BATEATER YOU AR FUNNY
@1changi
@1changi 9 месяцев назад
@@Americanpatriot-zo2tk The final blasting of the openings will be carried during a fateful H-hour like on the eve of Lunar Chinese New Year when Chinese traditionally lit up fire crackers thus masking the muffled blast. Of course, all these has been rehearsed in the mainland prior to the invasion. They will come in EVs which do not emit fumes or noises. An underseas tunnel cannot be picked up by satellite, invulnerable to typhoon, earthquake or bombing. PRC promised that they will build a "bridge" to Taiwan. It is not over the seas but under. It will be a permanent conduit which links the two locations which facilitate the movement of goods and people traffic.
@joshuaravelo9364
@joshuaravelo9364 Год назад
Hahaha very far
@juniorandaya4285
@juniorandaya4285 10 месяцев назад
bcause God has important roles in all world wars says in 1 Samuell 17:47 ...for the battle is the Lord's; and he will give all of you into our hands." Is also God that provides victory per Proverbs 21:31 The horse is made ready for the day of battle,; but victory rests with the Lord." china et al Scriptural ignorance will put their nations and all their peoples in a very perilous situation of being rased in the earth per Prophet Hosea 10:13-14
@iThink.probably
@iThink.probably Год назад
As a patriot, I'm conlicted. I would die for my own country and the values that we hold in a heartbeat. But given Tiawans history, I still believe that democracy should have the right to exist where the people are open to recepting. But i feel as though the US may be over stepping their bounds. However, coming from a military family i feel as though it's a duty to protect the rights and freedoms of our brothers and sisters in the world.
@1changi
@1changi 9 месяцев назад
I empathise with you. I think all people who grew up in ROC would love and honour the country and are willing to die for homeland. This is patriotism 101.
Далее
ЧТО ЭТО, БРАВЛ СТАРС?!😱
1:40:09
Просмотров 1,7 млн
What's behind Russia's booming economy? | DW News
5:35
Is now the best time for China to invade Taiwan?
20:10
Просмотров 305 тыс.
Navigating threats from China and Russia
14:21
Просмотров 2,7 тыс.
Tackling unemployment fraud
7:11
Просмотров 910