@Kirk Wolfe - Indie Music yeah yeah, whatever , China tries to become rich by slaves and colonization too. Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Hongkong, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, North European countries,.... are all rich because of what ?
"The Soviet Union also included East Germany in addition to 14 other member states" - East Germany was part of Warsaw pact, it had never been one of 15 USSR members.
De jure yes, but de facto no. The USSR was a one sided construct to the economic and political benefit of Russia in the end (post Stalin there was a short period where it was different, but this can be ignored). So you can consider the Warsaw Pact states as part of the USSR. They were even called satellite states during the Cold War.
I'd argue that part of why the Soviet collapse didn't affect the global economy is that much of the raw materials it was producing no longer was going to domestic industries. Instead it found its way to international markets which suddenly had a cheep source for these raw materials.
Yes, few people realise the decolonization of Africa at the same time the Soviet Union collapsed resulted in a power vacuum not only in Russia and its eastern bloc nations but also throughout Africa. The newly independent ex-Soviet nations then liquidated all their weapons stockpiles by selling them to Africa. This is why the national flag of Angola has an Soviet AK-47 on it. In many ways WWIII did happen but it was Africa-centric and Europeans only acted as suppliers of the weapons. Remember the genocides and famines in Rwanda, Somalia, Biafra, just to name a few. But this stull isn't taught in Western schools.
@@yucateco14 economics explained is so biased towards the west, the man really makes china look like a villain for some reason, all of his explanations are modelled on the American capitalist method
The reason why the Soviet collapse didn’t have negative effects on the global economy was because their economy wasn’t globalized and cheap raw materials were dumped into international markets. A country like China is way more globalized and interconnected with the world at large.
Kind of an interesting counterpoint to what I was thinking (they continued to exist and therefore produce and consume). Wonder if part of the increase in global GDP was partly because they continued to exist and participate despite the turmoil (my basic theory), but now integrated the result was they showed up properly in statistics only focused on $.
There was a recent discovery involving magnetizing metals that will make rare earth elements no longer needed. This was from Argonne National Lab and MIT.
It's now time to unhinge and rethink globalization with other states. There are other options like southeast Asia. Why the world is strictly beholden to China, I will never truly understand.
This is only slightly true. China as a whole is a mass importer of raw materials and vast exporter of goods - consumer and luxury goods. Look around the world. Most countries are all suffering inflationary pressures and will be for years to come. This means consumer good imports will drop massively. Making the "need" for China's manufacturing less important. Infact over the last 10 years many companys and countries have already moved away from Chinese manufacturing. Now many of the goods that used to be made in China are now made in Thailand, India, Bangladesh, Turkey, and many other countries. The world has been decoupling from China "single source" for a while now. So a reduction or a collapse of Chinas economy is not as drastic for the rest of the world as people make out. Its bad for them, for sure, because their economy is so tied to the worlds consumerism, but that is now rapidly reducing (recent Chinese reports put exports down over 50% YoY). This will impact resource countries like Australia, and some of the South American nations. The reduction in the need for raw materials will hit these countries economies hard. But as mentioned, they are going through inflationary issues anyway, so economic recession is happening anyway.
4:42 the Soviet Union did not include its Germany, it was part of the eastern bloc of Warsaw Pact Soviet Satellite states, but it was not “part of the Soviet Union”
Yes. I see very often that people mistake USSR for the group of countries USSR led: the Eastern Block. They also mistake the Warsaw Pact with both. USSR was a country. Warsaw Pact was a military alliance of USSR and its allies. And the Eastern block was the group of countries living under communist doctrine and cooperating economically. Post-soviet is not the same as post-communist.
After a horrendous 2022, shell-stunned financial backers have misfortunes to recover and a lot to consider, as an expansion report and a pile of different information did close to nothing to change assumptions that the Central bank would probably keep climbing interest rates regardless of whether the economy dials back, And that implies more red ink for portfolios for the principal quarter of year 2023. How might I benefit from the ongoing unstable market, I'm currently at a junction choosing if to exchange my $250k security/stock portfolio.
Centre around two key targets. In the first place, remain safeguarded by realising when to offer stocks to cut misfortunes and catch benefits. Second, get ready to benefit when the market turns around. I suggest you look for the direction a representative or monetary consultant.
@@obodoaghahenry9297 In-fact, ever since coronavirus I've been in regular conversation with financial examiners. Nowadays, buying moving stocks is quite easy; the trick is knowing when to buy and when to sell. The section and leave orders for my portfolio are made by my counsel. accumulated more than $550,000 from a $150,000 savings that was initially stale.
@@markgeorge8206 She is Julie Anne Hoover, my consultant. Since then, she has devoted section and leave attention to safeguards that I have been keeping an eye out for. You can locate information about the chief online, on the off chance that you're interested. I made no regrets about substantially adhering to their exchange strategy.
In late 1777, Adam Smith received news of General Burgoyne's defeat at Saratoga, promising calamity for Britain's war effort in America. His correspondent expressed deep concern that the nation was ruined. "There is a great deal of ruin in a nation", was the great economist's calm reply.
Yes. I see very often that people mistake USSR for the group of countries USSR led: the Eastern Block. They also mistake the Warsaw Pact with both. USSR was a country. Warsaw Pact was a military alliance of USSR and its allies. And the Eastern block was the group of countries living under communist doctrine and cooperating economically. Post-soviet is not the same as post-communist.
If China falls, it would take a very long time to get production going on home turf so it would have to be done gradually. That is why if China collapses, it will be a disaster for the rest of the world as well. I have not mentioned all the rare earths that China has that the rest of the world is dependent on as well.
That would not happen. If China collapses randomly then a short period would see companies come back home for a short while.But most companies would move eventually to other countries like Mexico, Malaysia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, South Korea, and maybe Japan ,Egypt and Turkey.
Nobody is desperate enough in the west to work in a factory. You have been told your entire life . If you don't try hard at school you will end up working in a factory. That thinking is strong even for myself. I just took a job as a carpenter but in a factory. I nearly turned it down. Same work as I do on site but in a factory with the same pay . They can't get people. It's the stigma. It is ok to be a tradesmen but not a factory worker . People's ego can't take being that low social status.
@@avancalledrupert5130 a bit true, however the West is pretty well at increasing productivity - especially if under pressure. This adaptibility due several layers of freedom is what gives it the edge.. It's just that engineers will have to re-learn well forgotten things and we will have a bad recession.
@@daxasd3270we don't have enough tradesmen as it is. There's like 3 job vacancies for every tradesmen All my friends and family are in those fields. They all pay more than all but the top 10% of whit collar jobs but still nobody wants to do it . I've offered people working retail on minimum wage chances to learn construction skills. Instantly £3 or £4 than they make with chance to double it in a year . They still won't . Plus gen z is untraceable. I've been given them as apprentices . It's like mate I can teach you carpentry. I can't teach you how to use your own body . You should know that all ready.
I know he's already got at least one video in that vein, at least regarding age demographics. It's called "Young Generations Are Now Poorer Than Their Parents And It's Changing Our Economy"
@@bdlbug6 I've seen that episode and its good. But I would like a forward looking one. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington is projecting global fertility rates (yes I do mean global) to be below replacement by 2050 and at around 1.5 by 2100. Not all demographers are forecasting the same but the above is still a reputable source and (at least based on that source) it would imply that humanities days are numbered just based on the fact that people do not wish to keep having (enough) kids. Obviously anything like that is very far in the future but as far as I've seen nothing any country with below replacement fertility has done has brought fertility rates back up to replacement.
@@ZelenaZmija Demographics may become a sizeable problem, unless handled with exceptional governance. All of the well-developed countries have fertility rates well below the replacement rate. Most of these have wellfare systems that will likely prove to be hard to uphold in the next few decades. Far too many elderly people that are no longer adding value and too few working people paying for their pensions. You're probably familiar with these basics, given your interest (consider it context for those who are not). However, I do believe it's not a lost cause, but only if those countries find ways to systematically decrease their median age. Luckily, there are plenty of volunteers that would prefer to escape their country and migrate to the generally prosperous west. But just as clearly, this is a delicate matter. Older migrants won't help, working age migrants are unlikely to be productive in prosperous countries. It is young people that the west needs, so that they can still complete education that sets them up for success in that particular context. That's still significant investment and raises difficult ethical questions, why one, and not the other. And also, why are these new people paying so much text for these old folks that they have no relation to. I think mess is unavoidable, but tragedy for "the west" is optional. Just a few thoughts of mine. What do you think? I'm curious to EE's perspective, but just as curious to see yours or someone else's perspective on this matter (it also concerns me, quite a bit).
@@mr-boo Appreciate your reply. I think what you've outlined is a general solution for wealthier countries, or "the west", that could work at least in our life times. However, I would emphasize that "the west" is not only one facing declining birth rates. The majority of Central and South America are at below replacement fertility, all of Eastern Europe is, India is currently at replacement rate fertility but that's just where they are at currently, the trendline for India is still going downward and suggests they'll be below replacement in the coming years, and China's fertility rate is well below replacement as well. The only region that still has high fertility is Africa but it is also dropping as they develop, and may drop more rapidly than other countries who have experienced falling birthrates. Just my opinion but I think too many countries will need immigrants, and many nations who typically send away people will make the process of trying to leave exceptionally difficult because they themselves need to keep what people they have. Furthermore, immigrants match the fertility rate of host country, if not immediately then within one generation. I do not see any clear solution, though frankly I just like observing the trends from a mechanistic perspective. If we've built a world where people either cannot procreate or do not wish to then it is what is.
I view it like kicking the leg out from a table with the smaller global economies on top. No matter how it shakes out, it will disturb the rest of the table or destabilize it.
East Germany wasn't a part of the Soviet Union, it was a Warsaw Pact nation. While they were extremely close ideologically, politically, economically, and socially to say that the DDR was part of the Soviet Union is like saying Canada and the USA are the same country because both are in NATO and NAFTA.
@@bharatkapoor4062 I mean, all things considered? Sure, I guess. There can be no Socialism while Capitalism is still in place. This is true at least not at a global scale, local attempts at socialism have been successful. That's been the plan of socialist movements from the early 20th century onwards: global Socialism, leading to what Marx described as an eventual stateless Communism. The Soviet Union never claimed to be a communist nation and the PRC doesn't claim to be one today... both state that they are part of a larger global movement towards communism that's in its early stages which are, but not completely, socialist in nature. Make sense?
@@Robert0Pirie no i am seeing things from a normal man where income inequality is huge for that reason poor people need free Healthcare free education cheap public transport
@@bharatkapoor4062 oh, well then yes. Democratic Socialism or even just Social Democracy are both better systems of politics and economics than our current Neoliberal Corporate Capitalism.
Yes. I see very often that people mistake USSR for thegroup of countries USSR led: the Eastern Block. They also mistake the Warsaw Pact with both. USSR was a country. Warsaw Pact was a military alliance of USSR and its allies. And the Eastern block was the group of countries living under communist doctrine and cooperating economically. Post-soviet is not the same as post-communist.
You can see that the Soviet economy fell before the fall of the Soviet Union in a video called "Top 10 European Countries by GDP (1897-2022)". It was an epic economic collapse.
*4:40 This is completely false, the Soviet figures count the figures of the countries IN the soviet union (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakstan ect), but NOT countries in the Warsaw Pact (Poland, East Germany, Romania ect) Saying the Soviet Union's figures "included east Germany" because of the Warsaw pact is as silly as increasing US gdp by 3 trillion because France is in NATO (I'm not saying this was out of dishonesty, just a mistake or misconception)
Yes. I see very often that people mistake USSR for the group of countries USSR led: the Eastern Block. They also mistake the Warsaw Pact with both. USSR was a country. Warsaw Pact was a military alliance of USSR and its allies. And the Eastern block was the group of countries living under communist doctrine and cooperating economically. Post-soviet is not the same as post-communist.
Every day we have a new problem. It's the new normal. At first we thought it was a crisis, now we know it's a new normal and we have to adapt. 2023 will be a year of severe economic pain all over the nation.. what steps can we take to generate more income during quantitative adjustment?I can't afford my hard-earned $180,000 savings to turn to dust.
That is everywhere. The problem is, with a rising labor shortage, that industry will be the hardest hit. Fundamentally, restaurants as an industry are only viable with cheap labor and cheap rent. Right now, we have neither.
The truth is that people are finally waking up to the fact that our systems are breaking down in thousands of different ways all around us. Personally, the financial market seems like the only way to go with my long-term horizon (accumulated about $557,000 in earnings since May 2021), but if you don't have that time luck, it's a tough market out there down almost nowhere feels safe!
@@TeresaBrickle I know I've wanted to start investing for a few months but just haven't been brave enough to start due to the market so far since mid last year. I have 60k i want to transfer into an s&s isa but its hard to bite the bullet and do it. $557K is a huge milestone , Please whats your strategy ? i will love to have an insight
@@Shultz4334 Start by analyzing blue chip companies to build a balanced portfolio, and then look into the 20 stocks that have produced the highest returns over the previous 20 years. My investment advisor, "HEATHER ANN CHRISTENSEN," who has witnessed dozens of market cycles over the previous ten years, taught me this.
@@TeresaBrickle Due to the fact that my job is full-time and I am a novice with poor picks, it is difficult for me to participate in the market at the moment. I don't even consider combining because it will be simply too stressful, therefore I can't spot trends. I am sure right that i require assistance.
what you would need to minimise the effects of China's manufacturing having a major decline (It's unlikely for it to just stop producing things) is to either impose a self-sanction to limit how much they rely on the nation but to stop relying on China entirely isn't easily possible or justifiable unless China does something extremely denounced
China's "manufacturing" is sinking. Most foreign companies and a lot of chinese companies are relocating to places like vietnam, india and others. by the time that china totally collapses the global economy will have moved on and the impact won't be that great. and because the chinese government went to great lengths to keep imports to a minimum, the drop in consumption is minimal. China is done. nothing can bring it back.
It is STAGGERING to me how utterly unable this channel is to think outside of a neoliberal or classical economic framework. I mean, I am consistently floored in a way I never thought possible. Just absolutely mind-boggling...
Were. We are entering an age of deglobalization. We realize we can't change country by commerce and it's a bad idea to rely too much on other countries.
@@poojancharadva5634 you've missed the point. Dependence is not a means unto its own. The reason why dependence is bad is because there is cultural significance to independence.
Imagine the largest industrialized economy collapsing. That also means other economies are also collapsing and not buying manufactured goods. This is a doomed scenario that nobody wins.
I love how you have so many false facts in this video but never point them out even when corrected, like the fact that you mislead people about the warzarpact and the soviet sattalite states@@EconomicsExplained
I was wondering if OP has addressed this question before: Is it possible for a country to have a "fully developed" economy and still be a manufacturing giant? What happens when all countries are finally fully developed? Will the cycle of seeking comparative advantage reset and start anew?
Your theory is based on the assumption that Progress is a linear sequence and there is only going forward. If the Soviet Union / Russia and the American Rustbelt are anything of prove then we know that there will always be setback that prevent it.
Technology is the cycle breaker in many scenarios. As AI and automation mature even more, there is a good reason to believe that high-tech nations can now produce goods cleanly and cost-efficiently so that manufacturing demands no longer need human employment but are all run by robots. In such a situation, it comes down to social policy changes that ensure the unemployed population is well taken care of, and humanity as a whole can be liberated from simple tasks and seek higher meaning in life as a species. Third world countries rationally should be brought to equilibrium by the first world because their population can only be an asset to humanity if they can also contribute to the cumulative brian power of humanity to further the technological frontier. This is the best-case scenario, the worst-case scenario is what you can often see in cyberpunk stories where the society is heavily fragmented into rich and poor, the powerful and the weak.
Countries like the US cannot do that cheaply. An average american has way more education to waste in making textile and you would have to pay them more. Your already high inflation would increase while you could give the work to Bangladeshi sweatshops and enjoy cheap goods
Admittedly this is highly speculative (and probably incorrect), but AI could prove key to unlocking more effective humanless automation of such production, which would reduce or remove the need to exploit cheap labor overseas.
they actually get richer by having services based out of them and exporting manufacturing but I agree that ACs should keep a level of competitive, high quality domestic manufacturing
I was stunned when I heard him say that East Germany was a part of the Soviet Union. That was never true. Even Saturday Night Live once famously mocked East German Olympic athletes - which were not the same as Soviet athletes.
East Germany was never part of the Soviet Union. East Germany was part of the Warsaw Pact. The author has extremely serious problems with the reliability of the facts. 4:41
East Germany was not part of the USSR. This isn't just a small mistake. You went out of your way to make a specific point about East Germany's assumed contribution to the USSR's GDP. Why would you write that into your script without fact checking? This is a red flag....what other "facts" are you stating with confidence without having checked them? What else makes it into your scripts because it just kinda seems right? I'm disappointed because I think I've learned a lot from your videos and now I need to be a lot more wary.
USSR collapse was not felt in US and Europe but it was disastrous for many countries in South America, Africa, and South & East Asia. In terms of unlikely China collapse, the EU and USA would not have much impact because the imports would from China will be taken over by the rest of the world, and Exports to China will not impact the EU and USA much.
The USSR made a much smaller percentage of the world economy then than China does today That actually shown that the containment approach did work long term and that china gotten larger influence because we didn’t do it in fact we welcomed it with open arms for decades
Just look at supply chain disruption from COVID and the impacts that had on businesses in Europe and the states, in a globalized world where companies are interconnected it'd create a huge shock , give it a year or two and things would smooth out again..
@@eastcorkcheeses6448 If anything, Covid showed us that fragile, single point of failure, "at time of need" supply chains are dangerous to the point of being a national security risk. The solution isn't to walk on eggshells trying to avoid rocking the boat in China, the solution to build a boat that won't sink at the first stiff breeze.
At the point in the video where you talked about moving your business in the event of economic collapse (to the point of no electricity) in Australia, the map shows your business being moved to Europe. Is this indicative of where you'd want to move in the event of that? And if so, do you have a particular country or region in Europe you'd want to live in?
My guess is he'd pick Ireland, ranks quite high on his leader board and is very Anglo sphere since the Irish language is not really the main language anymore
imo the majority of the Impact would be towards companies who enjoy profits from low cost manufacturing (labor, equipment, etc). The real issue will be if those companies absorb the lower profit or pass it on. At this point I don't see them passing in on (but maybe in the future when they can use smoke and mirrors by releasing a new feature or major product upgrade)
Not really, most of the western company like Tesla, BMW, VW, Apple, Etc also have a huge percentage of salessnd profit in china. So they will also get impacted
"If ever there was an economy that could be neatly removed with little interruption to the rest of the world, it would have been one that lived behind the Iron Curtain." That ignores all the countries that were also behind the Iron Curtain, or otherwise allied to the Soviet Union.
I wish someone would properly define 'economic collapse' in this context, seems like there are wildly different interpretations depending on who is talking. Also, seems to me people from countries that are very dependent on China as an export market tend to lean towards denial China has significant, existential problems...
Economic collapse is when a significant portion or a majorly of jobs (especially critical jobs) stop being done in such a way that they can’t be started back up easily. Say if trucking and trains got shut down due to a lot of the workers staging a revolution, getting caught in the crossfire or being scared of getting killed. Without transport other industries can’t get raw materials or export so many jobs become impossible to do and it wouldn’t be easy to fix because of the civil unrest.
@@jukio02 what do you mean by fine? With millions of covid cases and thousands of deaths per day, a burst property bubble, reduced export advantage, low cost manufacturing compilation, declining growth, religious genocide and all the other problems, it is not fine. It’s not going to collapse of course or fall by a large amount because it is still the second biggest economy and while the CCP are terrible people, they are at least fairly competent.
Every country has significant problem. The problem is that you guys only focusing on the bad side of the story all while ignoring the good side. That is why you think China will collapsed when in fact, it is far from it.
@@Rex-ww4cw did you read my comment? I said it won’t collapse. Yes every country has significant problems but most of them aren’t killing off ethnic minorities or suppressing their own people.
"Why the world needs China" The world operated just fine when China and Japan were both isolationists. When Mao established the PRC and kicked all non-Chinese out, the world did fine. So I disagree with you.
I think (can't stress enough the opinion part) that if China collapsed, it would affect everyone. But it would affect the rich hedge fund and market manipulators WAY more than the average middle/poor class person. The middle/poor class are already seeing huge inflation and price hikes right now. But the stock market is still going strong. And the only people I see who are pushing doom and gloom scenarios about a Chinese collapse are those people who have tons of their money in speculation and foreign investments. And frankly, they made their own bed. Of course, if you believe in trickle down economics, then it will eventually impact the middle/poor class. And that's not good. But a lot of the people who attack the rich don't believe in trickle down economics. So it would be interesting to see which way the scenario would play out. If companies and governments were smart, they would have started diversifying away from China long ago. And a few companies have been, moving their manufacturing to Vietnam, India, Thailand or even back to their own country. A collapse of China would just force everyone else to do it, and very quickly (as the video pointed out). But maybe that could even be a good thing in the long term. Really suck for a decade or two, but then even out or even improve things in the long run.
Nobody believes in “trickle down economics”. The term was first popularized by Ronald Regan political opposition in the 1980s but Reagan himself never used the term or advocated anything called “trickle down economics”. Reagan called his economic policy “free-market economics”. Nobody has ever gone to congress and asked them to implement trickle down economics and no economist who ever lived can be considered the creator of the theory. It’s a stawman invented by the left to avoid actually having to criticize rightwing economics. That’s a fact not my opinion.
@@gooel My particular area is a lot more self sustaining than others in the US. That comes from living in one of the big agricultural centers. We would lose access the latest iphones and cheap dollar store goods. But we could get all the actual necessities. But other major urban centers where they need to get those things imported would be hurt more, yes.
As if anyone care about oppressed ppl in China. If they collapse and millions of refugees heads west, we all know they'll be given fingers just like Afghans
I agree with most of this but one thing is definitely an incorrect overstatement. You say we are "dependent on China". Actually, we are not. We have taken advantage of China's lower labor costs to allow higher profits on consumer goods and to fuel a consumer culture that borders on entitled hedonism. We could be fine without China. But spoiled consumers would whine and cry, and Apple would need to take a smaller profit on each iPhone. Or, as is happening, just make them in India.
India don't have the manufacturing infrastructures/pipelines that already existed in China. India laws and bureaucracy also would made it harder to start businesses there.
And you didn't even address the elephant in the room- China's massive reserves of US debt. If China were to sell that debt to generate cash- admittedly not the best use of that asset- it would have a global knock-on effect as the market for US debt is flooded and its value falls. Given the interdependence of Central banks on the dollar, the effects that could have might be surprisingly large. Ultimately though, China needs the US debt worse than the USA needs China to buy it and any economic crisis in China that would make them scramble for cash would probably value the security of the dollar higher than its cash value. So I doubt that's a real concern. It is an interesting one to think about though because it illustrates just how interconnected we all are. Whether or not China is too big to fail is a question of how much the rest of us are willing to suffer in the event they do fail. Fortunately, that probably isn't going to happen anytime soon.
the argument "let's not wish the economy to collapse since it supports hundreds of millions" is a weak one imo since it allows the CCP to build literal filtration camps while we stand there and raise our "concerns"
@@seadkolasinac7220 It can be both ways. When USSR economy collapsed, the regime changed. Not so in North Korea. Chinese economic collapse can be fall of the regime, a civil war, or rise of the brutality of the regime.
I'd argue that part of why the USSR collapsing didn't tank the world economy is because despite what EE seems to think, neither they or their satellites magically stopped existing afterwards. They continued to do business as best they could given the turbulent situation, so of course global GDP kept rising. They were now doing it more efficiently.
I'm not from Australia, but happen to be in Australia while watching this video. Does my consumption count towards the domestic market, or is it a tourism export?
@@tobybrown1179 I'm from neighbouring New Zealand, and actually have Australian working rights from a reciprocating agreement. Some aspects of work are more regulated in Australia, with the need to get an RSA or White card for fairly basic jobs. Wages are generally higher per hour, but a lot of the work I've found is very casual with a low amount of hours (or none) available each week, where as in NZ I had a minimum number of hours guaranteed each week for similar work. Due to this I've spent far more of my NZ savings then I've earned in Australia. Taxes are lower, due to the tax free threshold, and GST being excluded from groceries. Cost of living is a little higher, especially accommodation, although groceries are pretty similar if not a little cheaper in Aus. Eating out is more expensive, probably due to those higher wages. After I leave next week, I will have spend 3 months in Australia.
@@MsJubjubbird Except in the specific case of watching the video, I'm not spending anything (excluding a little bit of electricity and data) so it's advertisers that are paying. I generally get some local aussie ads, some ads that have followed me from New Zealand, and some ads from multinationals. So there is some domestic ad spend, and some exported ad spend.
The main thing that makes it hard to predict is having a very authoritarian government, which can take huge action in response. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure there isn't a lot they can do to prevent it, but their actions will distort our predictions.
If Australia’s economy collapsed, I probably wouldn’t be looking to an Australian for economic advice afterwards. You might actually be out of a job in that scenario.
@@seadkolasinac7220 it was a joke about a hypothetical scenario that isn’t going to happen. But realistically, ya, I assume people would hesitate taking economic advise from an Australian in that hypothetical.
@@devinfraserashpole4753 Mix of capitalism and socialism like west north Europe & countries like China follow ? Is that system is better over capitalism
@@bharatkapoor4062 My god are you a broken record or something? I swear your practically spamming that copy/paste. Plus since what you mean is 'like china' since when you brought it up in other posts you basically argued that the Chinese model was the better one, you might as well be straight forward about it rather than sticking in West North Europe to make it sound less pro china.
Everybody is concerned about the market going down but refusing to take advantage of it. The best decision I ever made was to investing regardless of the market conditions. I made over 100k. USD with an capital of 5k.USD within 3 months. Trust me guys the market is still very much profitable
Stocks, bitcoin are falling and bond yields are rising, but markets still don't seem convinced, the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $117k stock portfolio, what's the best way to take advantage of this bear market?
@@daothai5056 Most time having knowledge or insight about a particular activity can as well be a pleasing exercise. I can boldly say that the digital market is one of the profitable money exchange services that elevates investors and their financial status.
I don't want China's economy to collapse--just for China to dramatically reform its internal and external economic, social, military and political practices.
I would like China to stop commiting genocides, stop violating human rights and stop spreading agressivity throughout the world. I would also want them to return freedom to Tibet and Hong Kong.
@@samuela-aegisdottiryeah, and I would like the west to get off their high horse and stop pointing fingers while they do shtt far worse, but we can't all have what we want, can we?
You might also have added a comparison to a former #2 economy, striving to be #1, Japan. Also, the COVID global economy is a real-life example of a China collapse. Their shut down cut the import spigot for other countries and the export spigot to China.
@@bharatkapoor4062 Western/Northern Europe and China has significantly different economies. China is esentially a command economy with companies, Europe is esentially a set of market economies with welfare states. China's model seems to be the better than capitalism but worse than socialism when it comes to stability and growth (when compared with the USSR and the US), but lacks civil liberties and is led centrally. This means that any bad decision the Chinese elite makes can be really detrimental. Europe's model is one that supports the status quo, and simply cannot be implemented by any other culture. There are many requirements for a healthy democracy, from a nuclear family structure to a cultural recognition of civil rights. Those states probably won't make bad decisions, but they will also make decisions slower. They make up the most livable places in the world with the best education systems in the world, the best healthcare systems in the world, they're the freest in the world... the list goes on. Tldr: Europe's model creates heaven on earth but is really difficult to implement. China's model is good for growth but doesn't provide civil rights. They're both better than, say, islamism.
What the last ~3 years have shown us is that China can make extremely abrupt, unpredictable and damaging policy changes that - as implemented - make absolutely no sense, do horrible damage to industries and the economy, and are doubled down and not reversed until it is too way late even if it is painfully obvious they don't work. Coupled by the sheer size it leads to unprecedented risks, and it seems for some reason investors tend to ignore them. Look at what happened (semi-)recently: One-child policy. Caused ongoing sever demographic crisis. Was not lifted until it was way to late to fix demographics, and reversal of policy didn't even work. Maternity capital was introduced too late to help and is too small to make a difference. It was increased but again too late, and by then - again too small to make a difference. Three red lines to deflate real estate bubble. Destroyed all large real estate developers, market and relevant industries. Policy was not relaxed until after all relevant companies were thoroughly bankrupt, workflow completely destroyed and so work could not resume. Despite falling prices, did not really help much with unaffordability of housing where it matters because of industry collapse which made supply worse. Common prosperity and pressure toward IT sector ("internet companies") to fix failing textile industry. Didn't help textile industry at all. Severely harmed IT industry and services, cause huge layoffs and downsizing all around. State funding for microchip industry. Failed to produce relevant chips in any usable amounts. Lead to massive, probably unprecedented money laundering. Harmed companies that made actual progress toward developing chips domestically (who were "outcompeted" by fraudsters). Destruction of private education industry to help against exam abuse. Exam abuse didn't stop (arguably got worse). Education is now an increasingly criminalized, shadow economy. Ban on videogames and some related entertainment activities for underage. Didn't change schoolchildren habits. Did deal a massive blow to domestic entertainment, partially forced it into shadow economy as well. The olympics. Stopped all heavy industries around Beijing for a couple of months. Didn't really improve anything. Harmed public image of the country more than improved it. Coupled with lockdowns - many companies didn't recover. Forced integration of Hong Kong into mainland. Didn't really help any. Hong Kong is now more or less redundant and is experiencing drawn-out economic and population collapse which will only accelerate. Political and social pressure applied to foreign companies (automotive, IT, electronics, industrial, etc) to promote domestic product. Domestic product didn't really improve. Many of foreign companies are downsizing or leaving. And the -elephant- supermassive whale in the room: the zero-cvd-policy. Failed to save lives completely and utterly. Devastated the economy like nothing since Mao. Damaged investor confidence severely, forced huge outflow of foreign companies and capital which will likely continue. Caused energy crisis and contributed to food shortages. Made a large portion of population poor among rising prices and employment shortages. Caused social unrest. Was lifted suddenly and without warning AFTER the most severe permanent damage was already done. Reversal failed to improve economy yet, and killed millions.
Cookie cut and paste smearing China propaganda. The dynamic covid policy didn’t save lives. All the world covid deaths statistics expose this lie. Common prosperity is to tackle the income inequalities and more resources goes to the rural China. Bubbles regardless its real estate, banks or others are part of capitalism, proactively popping the bubbles are better than let the bubbles grow out of control eg: 2008 world financial crisis starts in the US, the 20 years of one child policy implemented urban China, semi in rural (if the first child is a girl, (families are allowed to have a second child), at the time, it’s logical since the boomer generations have at least 4 to 5 kids and were not able to feed them. As for the crackdown of after school education facilities and video games, it’s the parents who are demanding it. People need to look at things with a more balance perspective will see things more objective.
I think one of the consistent fallacies western media or content creators have when looking at the Chinese economies, or India or other developing economies, is that they look at it through a "developed economy" lens, assuming everything is run with a certain order and formality, underestimating how informal their economy actually is. Just as an example, In developed economy, when a person or company or entity can't pay debt, they go bankrupt, and a specific process will follow. This formality governed by law can be rigorous and therefore disruptive. But in China, companies can halt their workers salaries or stop paying their suppliers for months or years while the entire supply chain seemingly functions normally. This is all due to the informality of how businesses are done in China. Corruption, nationalism, social pressure, lack of law enforcement, abundance of exploitable population all contribute to an almost infinitely flexible economy that can and will do anything to survive. If a company collapses in the developed economy, its workers and employees has no income and its products stop being produced as the system sort out its physical/intellectual properties. If a company collapses in China, there will be no change in the general economy as another entity will start producing exactly the same thing, disregarding any laws on intellectual property protection/worker's right/environmental regulation/any law whatsoever, working overtime to replace it, and the government will help, because they profit from it too. And this isn't a new thing, this has been happening since the establishment of the current CCP government. I think everyone just want the regime to collapse, not economy. There has been plenty examples before when a dictatorship regime collapsed, the economy was mostly fine, and got better in the long run. South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, etc.
"Nobody can predict the future, least of all economists". Side note though, I agree with our Economic Aussie. I don't think there's going to be a fast decline in China's economy unless there's a suitable black swan. They'll do everything they can to stabilize the situation. Nothing is off the table when it comes to China. They can bleed but they won't die a quick death.
Adaptation has never failed us. Humanity has triumphed time and time again in the face of extinction. We win these 🙏💚. Keep your head up and take care of you and yours.
See, here's the thing, while China was in strict COVID measures for 3 years, in 2 of those 3 year due to these measures China barely had any COVID outbreaks. Most of Chinese people went about work, study and play relatively the same for 2 years. So China dodged the Original and Delta waves, the more deadly variants. When US's death count went over 1 million, China wss thousands. The Omicron is maybe 10+ times more infectious, and thankfully much less deadly as well.
As usual, videos like this and reporters cherry pick and paint China as extreme to fit the western narrative and to justified its provocations to destabilize the world
A poll for EE’s economics-inclined audience: Do you believe EE when he said China is going through an unprecedented wave of protests and protestors are calling for change at the highest level of government. Please answer in Yes or No and feel free to leave a reason but refrain from replying to other’s comment to avoid turning into a thread war
Definitely not. The vast majority of the protests were as a result of lockdown fatigue. They were certainly not interested in a political revolution. Once the lockdown has been lifted, most ppl were happy to go about their day to day activities.
