Where Does EV Come From in Poker?

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The value of a hand is the sum of future outcomes. In this video, Tombos21 shows you how to examine runouts to understand where your hand’s expected value comes from!
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Where does EV come from in Poker?
0:00 Intro
0:23 Where does EV come from?
1:52 Red line vs. Blue line
6:14 Runout Analysis Technique
7:10 Example 1
12:12 Example 2
15:58 Example 3
22:06 Outro
#GTOWizard #GTO #poker

Опубликовано:

2 июн 2024

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Комментарии : 68

@GTOWizard Год назад

Are you a 💙Blue Liner or ❤Red Liner?

@patricksingleton7516 Год назад

💙 all the way, only because at the stakes I play most value comes from extracting showdown vs. passive players instead of putting regs in tough spots

@FCarraro1 Год назад

Playing 10 and 25nl I am a blue liner, but lately I've discovered that I was way too passive and my red line was butchering my showdown winnings. I've become much more aggressive and my red line has bumped up everything. I have the feeling that my blue line is more variance dependent (i.e. it's bad when I run bad) and my red line more strategy dependent (it's bad when I play poorly), so I am just trying to keep the red line as flat as possible and let the blue line take care of itself :)

@patricksingleton7516 Год назад

@@FCarraro1 100% man I couldn't believe the difference when I looked at even 50NL vs 25. The rake at micro stakes are so brutal that you have to play a totally different strategy preflop

@YHWHsam Год назад

@@patricksingleton7516 what do u mean the rake?

@patricksingleton7516 Год назад

@@YHWHsam the fee that the website takes out of every pot, on stars for example the cap is like 1bb at 500NL, 4bb at 50NL and 15bb at 2NL. Because there is no fee if every other hand folds preflop, you are highly incentivized in high rake games to play tight and aggressive preflop to avoid the rake

@pokerlogik6981 Год назад

This video/concept just changed my life. Such a clear example of how the internal philosophy of the game is actually even MORE apparent when looking at solver studies. People often get trapped by all the counter-intuitive spots and think solvers are playing a "different" kind of poker, but analysis like this shows exactly how a strong player's intuitions line-up really well with optimal play. Excellent video 🙏

@CancelIFR Год назад

Tombos is a top 2-3 poker content creator. S tier.

@samuraijack1371 8 месяцев назад

Who is number 1?

@MrTjthorso 11 месяцев назад

This is probably the most impactful poker instructional video I've ever seen. And I study quite often. There's not another video I've seen that gets drives home a critical point this well in 20 minutes.

@keithdunlap Год назад

I would nominate this video for best instructional video ever.

@redbaronlast Год назад

You got mad teaching skills, bro 👌👏👏👏 (saying this as as someone who partly teaches for a living)

@erronblack1 Год назад

Love these videos. So clear and easy to understand.

@entropyl3i 10 месяцев назад

Great video! Thanks for sharing. Learnt a lot! Just one to share some of my thoughts on the blue/red line topic. The prove of the 6 GTO bots play together, blue line will always be positive and red line negative is that: for any hand, it ends with 2 scenarios: won by showdown, in this case, if some player contributed to the pot but not see the showdown, then the total red line winning goes down, blue line goes up, and the amount is different by the amount that player contributes. And if a hand ends without a showdown, the total red line and blue line stays the same. So eventually, blue line always up and red line always down, except that HU situation, our third player that contributed to the pot by not see the showdown can’t be exited.

@StewieJT Год назад

red, long time ago I asked for a video, Anatomy of a Sim, this is just about perfect

@Nadestorms Год назад

Your content is outstanding. I’ve recently subscribed for MTTs and within 2 weeks I feel like I’m crushing and scored a 80x cash (3rd of 1011). 🧙‍♂️ 🧙 🧙‍♀️ 🙏🏼

@Nadestorms Год назад

It’s full circle because I used to listen to Brokos podcast when I first grinded live poker at 21, 5 years ago.

@hrrld Год назад

Great video as usual - one thing that stuck out to me as interesting is that you never activated the "Strategy + EV" view -- the final example of checking down KQs/KQo is sort of interesting, but what is the actual EV of getting involved with those holdings preflop to begin with? And moreover, what is the EV once the ace-high flop comes? Thanks as ever for these videos (and GTO wizard itself (!)), very thought provoking and helpful.

@MTTExpert Год назад

Great topic 👍🏼

@Kyle_Lucca Год назад

great video ty! would love to hear more about blue and red line theory stuff in another video

@GThOe Год назад

This was so great. WOW. Tom hits a home run again. And how wonderfully concise! You're a legend Tom keep it up.

@GTOWizard 11 месяцев назад

Glad you enjoyed it!

@michaelsheehy9466 Год назад

Loved it. 😀

@Samuel88853 11 месяцев назад

Very informative video

@modeob88 Год назад

This is amazing !!

@pierrewang 11 месяцев назад

This video is so good.

@Zwolf36 Год назад

Good video !!

@lipingsun8730 8 месяцев назад

great one ！

@juanchoo8989 11 месяцев назад

Thank you so much ♥♥

@twitchfap1596 11 месяцев назад

Wow this is good!

@FCarraro1 Год назад

This video is really awesome! Can't wait to play around with this concept! Me, I have always trouble in some cases to understand if EV comes from being called or getting folds, because sometimes I see the solver, especially with low spr, jamming hands that don't fold out better and don't get called by worse except some very rare and mixed calls by dominated hands, and this confuses me. For example, in a 4 bet pot, it may raise jam AJs on a T high board even if opponent is like mix calling with AT and then calling with AQ+ and folding K high or lower. My question is, are those calls from dominated A highs enough to warrant my jam?

@samuraijack1371 8 месяцев назад

That is an impact of SPR. In general a hand that has less than 50% equity when called will never bet for value except when SpR is below 0.5. That is because you get more “value “ when you bet vs when you check and opponent bets. When you check and opponent bets their bet size doesn’t allow them to carry enough bluffs. That turning point behind at 0.5 spr

@luftlayersoroma5105 Год назад

I don't understand the theory. How can it be when 6 GTO bot plays against each other every bot will have negative red line? It is mathematically impossible. If someone lose x amount of chip than the other win the same chip. It is 0 sum. Same with blue line. Are you sure about this theory? If yes, can you explain? Thanks! (update: it can happen because in some multiway pot, one player fold, but the other 2 goes to sd, then one player's red line lost chip appears at the other players blue line...)

@josephfienga9575 8 месяцев назад

lol @ how good gto wiz and this kind of material are together.

@robertmoeller6871 Год назад

it is unclear to me what you mean by redline being transferable to blue line. could you explain?

@GTOWizard Год назад

It's a weird concept to think about. The claim is: if everyone is playing identical strategies, then in the long run blueline >= redline for every player. For any individual poker hand, the sum of every player's blue line (money won/lost at showdown) should be greater than or equal to the sum of every player's red line (money won/lost before showdown), in a zero-sum format.

@bookedroomer Год назад

if you bet a lot with a good hand and get a worse value hand to fold your red line goes up but it would be better to bet smaller to get called so your blue line goes even higher

@pokerstudy6862 Год назад

3 players in the pot, one folds the other 2 get to SD one of them wins - so the result if no rake is (SD win = SD loss + nonSD loss) so you can win at SD money that someone else lost without SD, there is no way to do it the other way, nonSD winnings can only come from nonSD losses

@lilianelasserbe1437 Год назад

@@pokerstudy6862 thank you for explaining that in simple terms!

@andyychong6877 Год назад

I’m not sure why on the example of Ad8d on K67, hitting an 8 on the turn card is a bad card for us? I was thinking at the very least it’s a neutral card for us or even a good card since it’s gives us more outs to hit another 8 on the river. Also, it completes 45 right. Can anyone explain? Sorry I’m still new to solvers and trying my best to understand. Thanks in advance! :)

@FCarraro1 Год назад

He's saying that it's a bad card EV-wise for our specific HAND (which is A8, 13:06), not for our range. As you rightly say, it's a pretty decent card for our range in terms of equity. In fact if you look at the betting strategy, we're still barreling a lot on a turned 8, which is a little bit confusing for me, since it's not a card that yields a lot of EV. Maybe we're betting for protection against T9o which is the main hand that calls the flop raise that can outdraw us, but still it's not worth a lot of ev and we would rather get a fold.

@OneCrazyPenguin Год назад

It seems that the 8 isn't worse than a "brick", the only reason that its value is smaller than, a random 2/3/J is because all those random groups of cards have Diamonds, and most of the value comes from those backdoor flush draws. Before grouping the cards it clearly shows an 8 of clubs is better than a 2/3/6/7/J/Q of clubs. Its even better than a T which is interesting. So i think grouping is misleading in this spot. Love the video! Many great points!!

@offsuitunderdog Год назад

Hey so I’m really not understanding GTO as well as I need to. Where should I start to get a better understanding of GTO?

@GTOWizard Год назад

I recommend this article: blog.gtowizard.com/how-to-become-a-gto-wizard/ You could also try our (free) study plan: app.gtowizard.com/study-plans/plan/mastering_lowstakes_gto

@offsuitunderdog Год назад

@@GTOWizard thank you sir🫡

@robertmoeller6871 Год назад

❤

@EldritchDWX Год назад

💙

@cmares5858 Год назад

So "In Theory" having a falling red line is what is "supposed" to happen in a 6-max cash game??? You constantly hear everyone trying to pull the red-line up to be flat or positive sloping.

@GTOWizard 11 месяцев назад

Yes. In theory, everyone should have a losing redline. But that doesn't mean you can't strive for an edge!