Wow, you caught me off guard with this video. I really enjoyed watching this one. The “technical analysis” of the price trends. Applying methodology. IMHO this is innovative in the context of WhiskyTubing. Taking the art of whisky buying to the next level. Well done! 😃
Very nicely done Phil, really enjoyed that one. I think it would be somekind of cool if SWA would be able to collect all that data for you, as some sort of history of the prices. I really like such nerdy stuff. So far I´m not sure where we will go with the prices within the next months or 1-2 years, maybe we have reached a certain level for most of the bottles and the prices might drop down a bit. Well, see you in the next vPub! Slainte!
It would be possible to search all of that data to see under/overvalued etc. It would be fun but a complex project. Yeah hard to tell if prices keep going up (or down). Certainly we are 10 years in to general economic boom times so if that turns south I expect whisky prices to follow.
@@WhiskyMystery It might get interesting to see how many people actually keep sticking around whisky when the economic situations turns around. Of course most likely everybody would buy less, but I think 80-90% of the whisky drinkes just skip it and only the hard core will remain...just one mans opinion.
@@Whisky_in_Saxony I tend to agree. When money gets tight luxuries like whisky are the first thing to go. And that includes trying to sell what you might have stored.
Very interesting insights, Phil, thank you! Just to be sure, all prices you showed on your graphs were "hammer prices", so before fees and all the rest of it, right? I´m asking because obviously the 10% fee is mathematically adding to the "inflation" in absolute terms but not percentage-wise.
Correct Doc. All numbers are Hammer prices. For US$ equivalent I calculate...Hammer x 1.35 (fee and tariff) x 1.07 (bottle size difference) * 1.3 (USD:UKP) + $25 for shipping. So double it approx.
Great video Phil. Those bottles are more recent released bottles. If you did this with older bottlings (more sought after) and macallans then the inflation would be much higher. Which is scary.
Interesting.... I would’ve liked to see some Port Ellen and Brora OB in the mix to the patterns! As for the unusual spikes, I believe there is a non zero chance a last second bid of 240 becomes 420 because of the rush... That’ll teach you! Well done!
Ah yes two good ones I am sure the prices are high. This auction does not have a last minute. Know one knows when the auction will actually close but it does have an end time at which the software monitors activity. When it drops below a certain level the close the auction without warning. I really like this.
@@WhiskyMystery Yeah I understand how the auction works, more or less (i know I'm slow, but not that slow), still if you get a notification someone outbid you, on that Sunday afternoon/evening and you rush because you want/need that bottle, you can make mistakes... I should know, I was seconds away from betting 710 instead of 170 (iPhone passcode number pad is inverted) As for Brora and Port Ellen, of course the prices are high (especially in OB), though you can get some cracking IB of B/PE for a few 100s of $; still interesting to gauge how they fare... Because the prices are high, it has a magnifying effect, you can see trends, trends that are different than for a 100-500 bottle... And a strange opportunity pocket, if you look properly, arises! oooooh yes! ;) Keep 'em coming! Cheers!
@@romanb8154 Ah yes mistakes are always a possibility :-) I bid on a bottle of old Laphroaig one time thinking it was cheap but it was only a 375ml bottle...oops. Luckily I got out bid.
Very interesting video Phil! Excellent work and good on you to take the time to figure all this out. Isn't there a minimum purchase through SWA? I thought I read that you must purchase a minimum 10 bottles. Thanks again for giving us an insight into the whiskey auction game. Cheers!
Appreciate the insight Phil, great video! What I don't understand is a Scotch like Lagavulin 16... how can they charge $100+ mostly on the East Coast but here on the West Coast we pay $60 @ Costco???
Confuses me also. Similarly Bunnahabhain is about $400 in the UK but $700 here where as Craigellachie 23 is about $500 in the UK but $250 here in CA. How does that happen? There again Balnton's or weller in CA ?
It’s hard to compare Costco prices since they likely pay prices even lower than some wholesalers. The Whiskey Advocate issue (Spring 2020) which came out this week illustrates the 3 tier system and does a good investigation into how prices rise so high. I’ve heard Costco actually negotiates prices below “cost”,but that helps manufacturers with market share/power and driving down the marginal cost due to higher volume. Phil, did you mean Bunna 25? Have you heard any comparisons between the distiller release of 25YO and the independent bottlings of 27 or 28YO like Signatory or Cadenhead?
Nice video, Have you looked at the spirits auctions held in the US? HDH in Chicago has thrice yearly online auctions of about 3k lots. Skinner in Boston has 4 a year with the wine and Zachys in NY too. HDH is the one closest to WhiskyAuctioneer or ScotchWhiskyAuctions. This tariff has really put a damper my bidding in the UK. I'm going to send some bottles for the summer HDH auction and see how they do compared to WhiskyAuctioneer. Shipping bottles to Chicago is many times easier than getting them to the UK for US residents.
@@WhiskyMystery They ship to California but not Oregon. Per the web site. But to be sure maybe ring them up. Next Auction is on the 19th of March. Cheers!
@@WhiskyMystery I went by the shipping options on their retail store side, figuring they would be the same as for auctions. On the "Agents", wonder what they charge? I am in email communication with their spirits appraiser, I will ask him. Cheers!
I got a Longmorn recently seeing the trend happening and fearing where it would end up, but some of the bottles where the rate is slower is much more difficult to see. I have a Macallan Edition 2 I bought at the distillery for £80 which now tops £200 hammer price, and I quite enjoy watching how the price varies each month. Really interesting video, cheers. 👍
Thanks Sid and I hope you like that Longmorn. I am curious to see if the price keeps going from here or if it gets a bit forgotten like the Glendronach 15 that seems to have come down a bit since the new bottle came out.
@@WhiskyMystery the new longmorn hasn't had great reviews from folk though and has been out a while, unlike the new GD15... it'll be interesting to see.
100% geekathon! When you show them all on one graph at the end you could say they're 'blended' into one diagram. Seriously though, you must have spent hours on the number crunching. Hope your views end up in the Hibiki category and not the Octomore :-) Please keep the geekiness coming, it's all part of the fun. Thanks for your time :-)
So many of our bottles are open because we have to pour them into the blind bottles first. but the Black Art has been shared with others and still is not in the blind bottles!
Not ventured to online buying yet. Still so much to explore locally. Your stats give an interesting perspective. How does one choose until one has a bank of tasting knowledge. And then where do you draw the line as far as price versus "is it worth it to go to the next level." Decisions, decisions....I believe that is what you are trying to assist us with. Great job.👍👍👏👏
Hi WM. It is an endless quest of finding the perfect bottle :-) Certainly online reviews help if you agree or understand that persons taste. You can make a good guess if you will like it. Plenty to try without going to auctions though.
Phil, is very interesting. The page whiskystats dot net keeps track of several auctions and they also created an index with the top bottles to “gauge” the market. They are also in Instagram. I guess you are using Pyhton for this?
Thanks Antonio. I did not know of whiskystats. I should have been using python or similar but no just manual collection of data while watching whiskytube :-)
Guess you are lucky in California as the state allows for buying spirits online. Not in Illinois ... our options are limited to what we see on the shelves of local liquor stores who generally mark up the prices knowing fully well that we have no where else to go 😕
Prices have certainly been soaring but hard to see how it can just keep going indefinitely. All of these things cycle. The auctions will be a good indicator.
@@WhiskyMystery I agree, they market will be flooded with whisky in 10 years because every distillery has ramped up production. Not to mention how many new distilleries have opened.
@@SippersSocialClub Sometimes that does make the old collectibles even more collectible. I think an general economic recession will 'fix' the inflated prices.
