Who do you think has the best chance of winning the 2024 election at this point? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe! Subscribe to my upcoming newsletter, launching this month! davidlinreport.substack.com/ FOLLOW STEVE HANKE: Twitter (@steve_hanke): twitter.com/steve_hanke Email: hanke@jhu.edu My email: david@thedavidlinreport.com
the guy from weekend at bernies has a better shot than biden. trump has no opposition at this point...i really don't like either, sad the US only has these two clowns. trump will win, unless they get a new opponent
We've got to hand it to Trump. He's separating the good people from the bad. If you love Trump you're just like him. No good!! So I don't think you're a good person.
He may be the best out there. There are thousands of “wanna be” analysts out there… all trying to make themselves appear to be intelligent. Lin is ACTUALLY intelligent! Lin and Hanke together make the team!
What? You mean the people at casinos feeding money into slot machines and playing the roulette wheel aren't getting their money's worth? That's not possible. Casinos exist in a market afterall.
@Jon-hg5lz Exactly! This guy is nonsense... According to this guy sports betting is a way to go. Come one. Bollocks. And that guy he mentioned who won the Nobel prize is also a useless philosopher. In life it comes down to finding value. Education in a certain area can be valuable for one person and irrelevant for another. And so on.
@@jhutfre4855 I think his point is the odds of the bets are more accurate than polls because the people creating or calculating the odds have skin in the game where as polls can be tricked by humans who simply answer opposite of what they will do or the polls have problems samples used in the polls. Both valid points.
When we view news clips about Japan, the city streets, transit systems all look modern and well kept- not like an economy that is struggling. No growth? NYC, Washington , transit and city streets, in contrast, are a mess. Where does the " rubber meat the road" ?
If your population shrinks faster than your gdp, everyone is richer on a per capita basis. Usa will not japanify. Culture dominates even policy and economy.
He said highest bracket tax rate was highest prior to stagflation, when in fact, the highest rate was 90% from 1944-1963 when the economy was booming. He is either lying or misinformed. You be the judge.
@@jj-lt6xu I still don't understand what you're trying to say. The professor isn't saying that the WHOLE time prior to the 70s we always had the highest tax rate, he's just saying that prior to stagflation "era", we had a "highest tax rate era". The economy was "booming" needs context. First, we had massive fiscal deficits after the war. Second, we were the last man standing after the war, so we were doing good business, but it was because there was no competition, foreign investment was pouring into America. It wasn't specifically because of highest tax rates, that's absurd.
The French government is not proposing such tax code changes, it's an alliance of parties that account for 1/3 of the parliament that does so and does not have the majority necessary to pass such changes
What happens if these 2 things happen : (1) Trump picks Robert Kennedy Jr as his VP at the nomination day? (2) Kamala Harris - Michelle Obama agree as a one-team of equal role nomination for Democrats party ? Will that be the most exciting election race to happen ? 🤔 😅
The Beatles also left the UK because of excessive taxation. They even wrote a song about it "Should five per cent appear too small? Be thankful I don't take it all 'Cause I'm the taxman Yeah, I'm the taxman"
39:29 "Increase the money supply. Which will increase the inflation rate. Which will INCREASE INTEREST RATES?" What? Wouldn't the answer be to just move into QT and sell off the BOJ balance sheet to the desired interest rate?
Joe Biden asks while golfing "Guess my handicap." Response "Speech? Memory? Walking? Riding a bike? Counting? Stairs? Dressing yourself?" "Crapping your drawers?".
The explanation about Japan was utterly brilliant. I wonder though if rather than its government and central bank is getting it wrong, perhaps it is following some agenda. Do you know how long their government has been in power. 🤯
39:30 An obvious question after Hanke keeps repeating "focus on the money supply",.... is what specifically are you saying? You mean the BOJ should stop buying the debt produced by the Japanese government's deficit? That the BOJ buying the debt prevents the money supply from expanding? That anytime a central bank is doing QE, it reduces or prevents the money supply from growing? It sounds strange that Hanke says they need to increase inflation to get interest rates up. The goal should never be to create inflation to make interest rates higher,.. Inflation should only be an unintended consequence of some higher goal. It's easy to create inflation,.. ,, just helicopter checks to consumers,. The hard part id getting rid of it. I understand higher interest rates are to get the rest of the world to buy Japanese bonds,.. which would create demand for the Yen,.. stopping it's free fall,...but if they tittupped yield curve control, the interest on the debt would overwhelm the budget. Why do economists and macro experts never talk about austerity? They seem to push the thig that got a country in a bad situation to begin with. How about governments living within their means an not trying to buy votes with tax payer money? Nothing is free. Do the professors who teach or the doctors who practice in countries where they offer free college educations and free healthcare (because the US tax payer pays for their defense) work for free? Economists can't figure out how to balance budgets without destroying the currency? I mean that's their job. I'm sure here's all kinds of waste and fraud in all government spending,.. and not one economist does a detailed study of government book keeping to expose inefficiencies and fraud. They all want to sit back at the desk and make calls from the 30,000 ft macro view,. well it's money supply this and interest rates that,...... rather than rolling up their sleeves and digging into the nuts and bolts, like some have done with the Fed and it's balance sheet. Seems like it's time for a new economic field in,.... Government Spending Forensics or something.
The betting markets have one serious flaw which is that, at least for the most part, Americans aren't allowed to place bets on these websites. Now if they are expats and in the UK or some place that allows it, they might get one in, but for the most part I am led to believe that these markets are mostly foreigners.
As someone who bet on Brexit and Trump in 2016 I completely disagree on betting markets. These were dead wrong in 2016. The fundamental problem is that they break the wisdom of crowds as votes are not equally weigthed but money weighted
Hanke thinks Japan has no inflation. Look at yen vs gold. About 100% inflation since 2020 or 25% per year. Hanke is not a good economist. Just because a grain of rice is about the same doesn't mean no inflation.
inflation is measured against a "basket of items" - one has to have a single benchmark otherwise there would be inflation numbers for hundreds of thousands - if not millions - of items.
@@jhutfre4855 Isn’t it about the quantity of money rather than the price of it? Given this reasoning, the Turkish Lira must be exceptionally strong, which is quite the opposite…
With passive investing buying every pay period into 401ks regardless of the price means there isn’t really a market opinion anymore. It’s the mindless robot just buying ignoring information .
Me, I'm voting for Kennedy. The professor might be correct in his answer to the question, but there is no benefit to me in Trump or Biden winning. Both raised the debt by about the same amount. Both got rolled by the beauracracy and shut down the economy for 500 days. Kennedy isn't perfect, but he might get us as a country to 2028.
@@mateuszliese1059 I don't believe that he said that. Can you provide a source? Furthermore, both Biden and Trump punished people for not getting the experimental vaccine.
@@John-dh1od They could simplify the code so that tax returns could fit on a postcard, but that'll never happen because Congress is in love with their ability to write tax code.
Wisdom! 100% wisdom! Think about Hanke in comparison to the simpleton masses throughout the world! The world is laughable but the U.S. is the biggest joke of all!
If I'm a fan of a particular sports team, and they suck, and they are playing a really good team, and I had to place a bet on who wins, I wouldn't bet on my team winning. Betting markets are really good for seeing who people think will win, and not who people want to win. I would bet on Trump winning too, because it looks like that is what will happen, but I wouldn't vote for him. I imagine lots of people thinking the same way, betting on a Trump win. In 2020, the betting markets favored Trump, and he lost.
I guess since this dude was a baby at the time he didn't know that highest marginal tax rates were 1944-1963 when the US was booming and stagflation happened in 1970s when rates were 70%. Lying or ignorant?
Allan says Biden shouldn't step down though. If they democrats listen and keep going they can win. But they want to replace him and they will be screwed
it's the "ALL" part of your statement that bothers: he is pretty accurate on a number of levels. I have yet to come across any professor/expert who is 100% accurate or 100% wrong...