Why Being First Matters for Tesla Optimus (Ep. 759) 

It’s great to see you again Dave! Your input is always greatly appreciated! Hope things are well on your side.

Dave, You're the best. I hope all's well with the family. Thank You for once again, putting things in an easy to understand way for a dummy like myself to understand.

Your first mover advantage in humanoid robots also describes SpaceX reusable rockets, SpaceX Starlink, Tesla electric cars, Tesla battery storage/arbitrage/grid services, and Tesla robotaxi... Not so far fetched when compared to this set of 'impossible' achievements.

Hi Dave: Your deep dive and insightful comments into Humanoid Robot and being the FIRST are right on. Tesla is again on the right projactory!

Hope all is well with your family. Be well.

Hi Dave, I hope all is well.

Pump and dump. Can’t wait for the August 8 delay😂 Robots will never be sentient. Read up on neurobiology Dave Lee. Robotaxis…😂

This lead advantage is exactly how the EV automotive industry market is playing out. No scale… no profitability. No profitability… no new innovations; you just die out!. It’s survival of the fittest. I love what Elon said yesterday about the key being the rate/ pace of innovation.

Love hearing your perspective Dave thank you

First to market with a complete product. Not first to market with something that could pass for a robot if you squint really hard (X1, cough)

Hi Dave, always good to listen to your reflections and thoughts. You are a beacon in a sometimes dark world. Yes, it is important to be first. Apart from the reasons you mention I would add that most likely will Tesla build an eco system of services around Optimus. Different delivery services, maintenance, pick up, etc. These service providers will be integrated in Optimus AI and provide seamless interaction towards friction free user experience. Once this eco system of providers is up running it will be cumbersome to replace Optimus and start over again. A penny for your thoughts!

Great perspective, Dave! I completely agree that there are few component manufacturers if any that make the motors and sensors required for humanoid robots. The reason is that their parts are better suited for limb movements but quite poor for dexterity. The vast majority of useful humanoid functions will require dexterity of fingers and wrists. In other words, robots that can dance a jig and turn somersaults may look cool but will be nowhere near as useful as those that can peel a boiled egg or assemble intricate equipment. Tesla seems to have understood the latter.

Super great analysis! And I am super bullish about Tesla after the voting thing is finally done, and Elon will continue to lead Tesla. I’m actually happy to see majority of people who don’t understand or laugh about FSD and Humanoid robot coming, because it gives me more time to load up more shares. Both market entry barrier will be bigger and bigger everyday, while the stock price is still “cheap” to me

Thanks. Dave, for your insight into the growth of Tesla’s Humanoid Optimus. It is very clear that Tesla is well positioned to succeed on a massive scale.

so Dave, why do think the stock prices isn't going up?

Thanks, Dave. Best wishes to you and your family.

Auto revenue growing but not as fast as in the past, Energy storage revenue growing exponentially with higher profit margin than auto, services revenue growing steadily, next FSD revenue, then slowly autonomous driving revenue from existing fleet of Tesla owned and privately owned EVs, then profits grow, maybe in 2026 there will be some revenue from Optimus.

Next comp plan should include getting Optimus design locked, and mass produced for retail sub $20k

Dave, nothing means anything unless the stock is moving. TSLA has not moved meaningfully since the split. Actually its down 40%. Talk is cheap. Fool's gold.

It’s so nice to see you do this video! Thanks Dave!

Tesla is so far behind in robotics, it is embarrassing

TESLA

Great to see your video show up in my feed, Dave.

It's so refreshing to listen to someone who understands the immense lead that Tesla has in AI inference training, and the efficiencies under which they operate. Discussing Musk's pay package I've been stunned by the breathtaking level of ignorance of some suggesting Musk is not smart or Tesla would be better without him.

Like it or not, Terminators are coming. Good luck to humanity.

Amazon already has a fully functioning humanoid robot called digit working in their warehouses, invest in AMZN?

Wrong, being the best matters

Elon bad “NOT! Quirky yes, genius yes, best CEO yes! I could go on! Don’t bet against Elon! Bet for or on him! Not financial advise! 💎🙌TESLA😎🇨🇦 2562 shares 💪

Optimus picking up, and ABLE TO pick up, all the skills humans have and might have, and have had. If that is not already a super being I don't know what is.

Military applications: moving heavy equipment, driving supply trucks in a combat situation, accompanying soldiers on patrol. Here at home, they could do garbage triage, just dump the household garbage on conveyor belts and the robots pull out all the good stuff like cans, bottles, cardboard and seperate the rest to stuff that will decompose like kitchen waste from stuff that just needs to be buried. Landfills wouldn't be as full. Any physical activity that is difficult to do in very hot climates. I watched 5 city employees digging a ditch along side the road, way to hot in Florida to safely do that. They could enter contaminated spaces like the Chernobyl reactor and clear that out. Finally I expect the factory that makes robots is going to be almost entirely staffed with robots, robots building robots. They only cost the price of electricity to operate.

The headstart that Tesla will have with robots running AI will compound not just from being first in market with AI, but from the data collected from having these robots in the market. I imagine they'll be connected and giving feedback similar to a vehicle, with "edge cases" being noted by owners. The first mover advantage will also multiply when every company using a low cost robot has and advantage over their competitor who will immediately need their own robot in order to stay in business. There will be "John Henry" scenarios playing out in every industry. And for a couple of years it seems like Tesla will be selling to every side of every competing industry. Tesla will be the Rothschild of the business world - accept the product if you want to survive against your competitor who has also accepted the product.

The Tesla breakthrough with FSD arose from the use of end-to-end processing applied to enormous quantities of video data from their cars. Without it, their design and manufacturing excellence would not have cut it. There is no corresponding ocean of data available to the Optimus development. To date, its performance has been embarrassingly inept. That emperor needs to get some real clothes. Fast.

Big tech and Tesla fan, but I'm not sure I see a consumer need for these autonomous robots, particularly in human form. Who's to say that's even the best form for an autonomous helper. I could see a possible use case for it in manufacturing where things can be highly standardized but in the home? Not sure it would be better and/or more affordable than a phone or glasses linked to wifi linked to increasingly smart devices like fridges, coffee makers, etc?

i wonder what the next RWAI market they can go into? Transport, Labour, that is a HUGE area but with energy sorted what else do we need, food, shelter and clothing? Education? can ai learn how to teach you dynamically based on your level of understanding better than a teacher?

Getting mindshare and becoming synonymous with EVs hasn’t helped Tesla stimulate demand for their EVs. Because if you have a blind spot with regard to marketing, you will be the first but others will know how to cross the chasm by going beyond the early adopters and they may eat your lunch in the end.

Sorry, very bluffs work. Not taken account of other robotic 7 billion small and large tech. Thanks for your view points.

Tesla is positioning to become an ubiquitous "Piloted by Tesla" company. It will not be only cars and humanoid robots, it will be robotized boats, planes, trains, construction, you name it. You do not need an humanoid robot to drive these things, you just embed the AI and sensors into the properly designed machine like it is being done for cars.

Robots also work at least 12 hours a day, no benefits or SS or MEDICARE costs!

Thanks for the informative content, Dave! Since Tesla uses cameras and not lidar to navigate, is there a solution for FSD when the side and rear cameras are compromised due to bad weather like rain and snow? The front camera by the rear view mirror will have the help of windshield wipers but the other cameras don’t. I can’t see FSD working well without the other cameras. Thanks!

I want to believe this but the actual timelines, margins of profits and competition possibilities are hard to just assume will never close in. Tesla had the huge ev advantage but there are many other competitors now in the ev space. Benz is now using Nvda for there fsd Again I want to believe but the track record of the timeline and actuality of the cyber trucks actual price and range after 4 years is an example that comes to mind

Tesla was the first to EV market but shortly lost its advantage by getting beat by the Chinese EV manufacturers.. Will the robotics era be the same?

OpenAi robots will have ChatGpt level conversational skills, which Tesla robots still lack. The biggest threat to Tesla robots. .

Potentially an android can be very inexpensive, especially if it doesn't need to be strong. Electric motors for EV were massively overpriced in the beginning for pretentious reason but I was surprised to find that the industrial mains 3 phase motors were very cost effective because they have been used on massive scale for 100 years and suffer no pretentious overpricing so what they might call a 7.5kW for industrial use is as big as the motors in a Tesla and you could get those for 300$. A heavy quality product and that's likely more motor mass than in all of optimus. So in unpretentious mass production you could imagine 1500$ unit cost. A state of the art nvidia chip might cost 100$ from TSMC, progress that 10 years and such a 100$ chip might be plenty compute for a worker android. It doesn't need GPT4's encyclopedic knowledge. It doesn't need to know discussion of new york building codes in the 1950s so you can imagine a solid intelligence in the equivalent of 50bn params. Which is doable today in a mobile unit. And with an internet connection they could have a cloud knowledge base they can draw on for niche knowledge. Predigested knowledge compatible with their brain design. Or simply on a storage device because how big is human knowledge really? a few TB covers a lot and that is quite inexpensive in storage already. It could also have a super intelligence on call to formulate a solution for a given situation that it can then execute for 10 years.

To summarize, "If you're not first, you're last." Ricky Bobby

For all doubters out there. Before you speak about how this is not going to happen. Please watch the history of Tesla and Elon and think again.

Capital allocation is more important for investors than being first. Elon unfortunately isn’t there yet.

I bet you that activist judge in Delaware will not let this go.... and Delaware will also do all they can to NOT let Tesla relocate to Texas. This is not over, those types of people are horrible.

Wonder if it is possible for Tesla to do the entire head section into a mouldable screen. Then you could use a scanned 3D model of any face to use for your robot. Then just add an AI voice.

My question is do we want a humanized robot? Have we really thought this through? I guess it's best to think if Tesla doesn't do it some other company will.

Tesla is going to miss numbers in this high inflation environment. People don't want to pay high interest rate car loans.

@Dave Lee, can you do a deep dive about ark invest estimates ?

Boston Dynamics's robots are more advanced than Tesla's robots.

Cringe

I have a great many simple jobs on my farm, forestry, butchershop and construction which I would love to have AIbots to help with. They are to the skill level I need now. I would like them to be rugged, IP67, a bit stronger & faster than described - they need to keep up with me. At the often quoted $20k I would take three to start with. More later. Exciting times. AI, robots, knives, pitchforks and chainsaws! What could go wrong!?!

TSLA STOCK LONG!

Boston dynamics should have all that hardware worked out.

I don't know man, Apple is never first, and they're doing just fine.

Is there a breakdown of how much each of the robots that stood next to Jensen Huang costs?

Very well presented info Dave. Thanks

Tesla youtubers are changing their tune to optimus now

The first thing should be FSD is not working yet 😂

The cheapest robot is ....... the HUMAN !!

Loved the focus at the end of this video. I can see clearly now!

Thank you Dave 😊i can't wait!❤😊

I just watched Terminator 2 🤔 scary

Those that took the clot shots will be the best robots Sara Connor ?

In other words, like Tesla cars all over again!

All Cool aid, eventually companies catch up ….

Dave plans for any new BTC videos?

I don't think being "first" matters at all. Boston Dynamics have been there for ages. They are great but where are they actually, at scale? As you mention it's actually about affordability, and functionality. It's about a robot doing things that are needed and more cost effective and more useful at scale! Then being the "first" counts.

Essentially, for all the Tesla investors post 2020 that were dreaming with going back in time and investing in Tesla before it began ramping up production and exploding in value… THIS IS THAT CHANCE with Optimus. Don’t regret it a decade from now.

And Tesla has already done all off that with EV

“Hi it’s Dave”

These shills drink the koolaid so hard it’s eerie

We will be licensing software AND hardware to the competition. Just like the car industry will license operating system and FSD. It’s a dream come true folks!!!!!

The absolute best thing for Optimus is FSD millions of robotaxi will come before million of Humanoid robots. FSD will provide such and insane amount of revenue such as the world has ever seen. Tesla will effectively have UNLIMITED capital for Optimus development something no other company is going to have a along with all of the other benefits Dave listed

You can have an all purpose affordable car like the Citroen 2CV or the Beetle but there will always be the market, for something faster or luxurious or something more specialized like a pickup. The new Boston Dynamics robot looked quite impressive. Teaming up with car makers could solve competitors manufacturing issues, and teaming with Nvidia would help with the brain. There has to be a worldwide market to support dozens of robot companies just like there are dozens of car manufacturers. It looks at this early stage in the race that Optimus will be the most dominant but it will be exciting to see other competitors. My most impressive take from Elon is that Optimus will be able to play the piano! That, will be something remarkable to see/hear and would be a milestone reverberating around the globe. Thanks Dave.

Dave thank you for reminding me why I am a Tesla retail holder, investor. I have been depressed watching the political crush on the stock - but this all reminds me why I don't react to the heard mad crowd effect.

Agree with you about Optimus excelling in the physical aspects. Tesla hired 18 top-notch engineers of Genesis Motion Solutions, which was being shut down because Koch Industries ceased funding it. Genesis was focused on direct drive motors called LiveDrive, with instantaneous response, reduced energy loss, and precision and featured patented electromagnetic technology for improved torque-to-mass ratio compared to competing and, costlier to manufacture, direct drive motors.

I'm just wondering how long it will be, before they come out with a wrap for the tesla bot!? C3PO anyone!?

Thanks for the video Dave, your insight is allways great. Wishing the best to you and your familly.

Hi Dave, I've missed your clesar, thoughtful presentations. Thanks

Elon’s tracking record is amazing, he was the only one believe vision only is the way to go for FSD and only one believes stainless steel will work for starship…

They probably need to make a soft body robot though. Else it would be a safety hazard imagine the robot falling and crushing your toes or your baby

I enjoy your opinions and input. I think your morals more closely match mine than many other Tesla pundits. I think too much humanity gets lost in the greed of "success" and "profits". For me there needs to be a bigger driver than stock price.

Question Dave, who will be able to afford all this tech. when their replaced by it? Elon has said time and time again affordability is the issue. In order to reduce COGS you need technology and in doing so you remove high paying labor. Seems like a vicious cycle, thoughts?

Great Video's, very insightful! Hope you, your wife and loved ones are doing well! Keep up the awesome coverage and analysis! 👏

Great points, great example is of course Tesla's lead in EV market!

its not about being affordable. Its purely manufacturing in the long run 100k is one year of work usually the robot will make that back in half a year minimum

imo, humanoid robot data will be used in reinforcement learning which means it gets a specific chore done better and better each time. i am not sure if data of all humanoid robots all over the world can be shared since there are too many chores. it may be shared by chores. e.g. all humanoid robots who are washing dishes at a home can learn from each other in the task of washing dishes. i do not think all data from all chores can be shared and be learnt.. it has to be breakdown by chores. in other words, to share data, it must be broken down by chores. e..g. mowing, washing dishes, folding clothes, vacuuming, play 1:1 basketball (i would get one for this.) ... tesla full automation driving is a single chore which is driving. this data can be learnt from each since it has to do with the chore of driving. always enjoy your video. hope your family is doing well.

It's always a pleasure to listen to your summation after big events. Thanks so much Dave for being a positive and safe voice in the Tesla Community. Let's get ready for the next BOOK that Tesla and Elon will write for us and with us!

I hope the fam is well💐 Your analysis is always appreciated. Thanks Dave.👊🏾

Can anyone please recommend a route on how to specifically invest in Tesla? What service are people using?

Dave can you have another interview with Boomer Mama, we would like to know what the Delaware witch can do to mess us up.

Dave is the godfather true OG cost me so much money in options but I love it thanks Dave I hope all is well

Great presentation Dave, you really bring it all together with excellent clarity. Thank you.

One thing that blow my mind is if one robot or car learns a new skill or fixes a bugg all robots and cars will receive that upgrade

Thank so much by Dave! I hope you and your family are having together time

shareholders asked softball questions prefaced by the most pathetic ass kissing possible. both sad and scary at the same time

I still think Figure Robot is ahead of Optimus.