Let's get the word out! If you enjoyed the video, the best way to support the channel is with a like and subscribe. Other videos you won't want to miss: Breaking Down Russia's Insane Plan to Annex Belarus: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-HWZfPMWnCTo.html The REAL Reason Russian Generals Target Civilians: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-O9NSQ0TPoLo.html The Dumbest Things Looted by Russian Soldiers: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-764f_uvlLRw.html How Putin Brought Russia's Economy to Its Knees: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-k8WjXBBdh04.html How Russia Crippled Its Own Military: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-S_7ykSuCWK8.html
China has been under assault from western propaganda for some time. Even before that, they CCP, unlike US, tried to at least keep their position consistent. The main thing here, is their Position on Sovereignty. Both CCP and ROC agree, that Taiwan is part of China (so no Issue there). Ukraine also has been recognized and is a important trading partner of China. China has a lot of credibility with their diplomatic efforts in third party countries running on the fact, that they respect Sovereignty. This is one of the main reasons their diplomatic efforts had great success outside the western world. And it would make them a easy target for western anti-china propaganda. If they backed Russia, they would have undermined their massive gains and showed the flip-flop as fast as the US. China clearly is playing the long game of obtaining a diplomatic victory over the US. So they first abstained. Then they even voted to declare it a unjustified aggression after it made it into the resolution. The only way China could have backed Russia without losing Face, was if the knockout blow would have been successful and Ukrainian Resistance was basically non-existent (remember Russia thought this would be the case). Unless this could be reasonably Sold as a Liberation in the eyes of the Rest of the World, there is no way for Chinese Support. The CCP rules by means of saving Face and bringing Prosperity to the People. If they abandon either, they will face internal Turmoil. Which could easily be exploited by their enemies. Staying in Power by Suppression is a much weaker Position, than having something like 70-80% Approval Rating. You can't hold on to that, if you show yourself as untrustworthy.
The Chinese liberation army may be huge in numbers but they have no actual war experience, the public on the whole do not want to draft into the army, the pla is rife with corruption were the highest ranks are paid for instead of earned through experience and the ccp has failed to modernise their military.
The truth is all the countries in the global south (about 80% of the world support Russia). Including Africas, latin Americans, east Asia except Japan, south Korea, new Zealand and Australia
The fact that Zelensky stayed in Kiev to fight the Russians changed everything, nobody expected this. The western weapons only started arriving afterwards and when they knew that Ukraine was going to fight, yes the western weapons were crucial but it was Ukraines resolve to fight that was the real determining factor
To be honest I was expecting Zelensky to take the money and run like every other leader has done in.a similar situation. The fact that he stayed and put up a fight, made all the difference in the world.
@@maksym2487 because Ukraine actually didn't believe Putin would be so stupid to invade. Also they didn't want to give Putin any pretext or excuse to invade, if Ukraine had massed troops on the borders to counter Russia or blew up bridges well that would have given Putin the excuse he was longing for. There was a hope that the americans by calling out Putin and loudspeaking the intelligence they had that Putin was lying might have stopped Putin from going ahead. Putins big stupid ego defied rationality
Zelinsky's "I don't need a ride, I need ammo!" was the best line of the war. And the brave Ukrainian soldiers who told the Russians to "Fuck off" were legendary.
@@stevecariggillio4139 *He didn't actually say that. Just propaganda.* Odd. According to a quote cited in an Associated Press article, Feb. 25 from "a senior US intelligence official" he did. “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.” But we'll go with your opinion, since you were there, and RU-vidrs are always in all the important high-level meetings with world leaders in foreign countries. Cheers.
That was the moment I realized it wasn't just some border dispute between Slavic nations. In 2014, Ukraine's navy just stood down and from what I could tell, the defense of Crimea was non-existent or minimal and reactive. It really made the conflict look like separatist civil war from what the news was showing in NA. When Zelensky said that famous line in response to a full scale Russian invasion; I was absolutely impressed. The events surrounding the conflict completely captured my attention and Ukraine captured my support. Russia is a terrorist state and the sooner they leave, the sooner they'll start financing Ukraine's reconstruction.
One of the byproducts of this war is the perception that Russian equipment is vastly inferior to western weapons and equipment. The Russians depend on arms/equipment sales to other nations in order to bring down the cost of the weapons they keep for their own military, so if these sales drop, it will get dramatically more expensive for Russia to replace equipment lost in the war. I think it is possible that China is factoring this into the calculation to not give Russia Chinese weapons / equipment because the perception of a similar poor performance would impact their own arms sales.
That is a great perspective I never thought of. You are correct China probably does not want their weaponry to be put to test on the battlefield In full view of the world.
True,everything the Chinese have is copies stolen from the Russians and it much more inferior and they tried and try to steal from us and they end up with cheap imitations
They where The foreign minister brought a photo of Stalin smoking back and Hitler lost it, had it destroyed to protect Stalin's image Stalin refused to believe his buddy would invade and was depressed for 2 weeks They liked each other and what is a little genocide and invasion amongst friends
I think you're missing a very important aspect here, namely, Outer Manchuria. Once a Chinese province, now a Russian one. If Russia loses this war, China has two major opportunities. If the current leadership stays on, they will sink deeper and deeper into the Chinese pocket. On the other hand, if the current leadership of Russia is toppled and chaos follows, China can make a play for Outer Manchuria.
If Russia won quickly it would give China the confidence to rush in and grab Taiwan. If they don't it opens a chance to reclaim Outer Manchuria. Of course China has it's own issues so far.
Putin already told China he will nuke them they tried to take Manchuria and if Ukraine wins which I think they will Putin will have no other option to do so
@@kazekamiha I agree, if you want to do what crooked China Don (that's what I am calling Donald Trump) wants, we will have World War 3 with China. As long as Russia is being humiliated in Ukraine, I doubt they will attack Taiwan, now what message the US will give China in this war if you elect a president that lets it keep most of the territory in Ukraine? It just changes the leadership and the war ends. MAGA is so moronic, I hate the demon-crap but the cucks3rv4tives are even worst. I am not even leftest I am right wing.
less than half is overly optismistic, Russia took 30 percent of Ukraine from Feb to april of 2022, now May 2023, Russia controls like 15 percent of Ukraine. most like Russia acomplshed 15 percent of its goals so far and Ukraine is far from surrendering, in fact they are readying for another offensive while Russia is faltering badly and having problems trying to recruit 400K men . if Russia tries to recruit about more men after the 400K there is a real risk of unrest.
@@icarusproject 15 percent of your accomplished goals is like getting 15 percent score on the final exam which means an FAILURE , the passing score would be 60 percent for a satisfactory 3 score. The Russians never even got close to that.
There is also the chance that if Russia fails and the federation breaks up China could re-claim Outer Manchuria at no cost, that would be a nice little pick up.
The West would prefer to have only one superpower to deal with. China would more be than enough to fill that role. With Russia no longer a threat, geopolitics would be a lot simpler.
Other than cheap oil the war has been a disaster for China on so many fronts, most of all the West has come together economically in a way that would hit China considerably worse than Russia. Also a 100km amphibious assault across the Taiwan Straits would be apocalyptic for the Chinese. Economic and military suicide but the former is collapsing day by day and desperation can lead to genocidal tendencies.
The corollary is also the possibility that China could invade Taiwan and fail in the same way Russia did in Ukraine. It would also have the same effect of destabilizing the communist party in China. There is nothing dictatorships like the communist party in China fears more - which is their own people.
its not only the massive influx of western weapons that helped Ukraine, but its the ukrainian will to fight which is much higher than that of Russia who's soldiers have low morale and motivation. the influx of massive western aid just amplified that Ukrainian will to fight. Also add in poor russian leadership training , corruptiton , incompetent. the only thing going for Russia is their manpower and firepower, they massively stocked up on weapons dating back to the cold war. even now these weapons are being rapidly depleted. and RUssian industry cannot cope with the war. Russian logistics also suck. if the Russians were more competent and motivated to fight then the Ukrs will be in trouble.
The interesting part is that if China would try to invade Taiwan they may have even less success the Russia... Two reasons , invading a island nation has even more logistical issues then Russia has faced and two the Chinese is completely unproven at this point .. the last major conflict was back in 1979 and it wasn't exactly a great success. Taiwan is not exactly a 3rd world power when it comes to it's military either, they are a very modern military who have had the benefit of joint training exercises with western countries.
@Derrick Larsen Philippines, Taiwan & Japan form the first line of defence for the US. If China were to capture Taiwan, they would have clearance toward the Pacific region. US know that too ,so America is going all out to prevent that from happening.
I appreciate you not vilifying China in this like many propagandists do. This was a balanced and fair assessment that shows the really shitty position Russia has put them in and their reluctance to get overly involved. They've shown a lot of restraint, partly through the self interested desire to keep selling to the west and partly because they're not overly keen on militaristic conquest. China has shown an attitude for economic influence over military conquest and I really hope we never have to go to war because although the Chinese government has a great many flaws, so too do our own and at the end, we're all the ones that suffer at the bottom if we get dragged into wars our governments have decided to throw our lives away over.
You should take a look at the Century of Humiliation to know why China isn't all that keen on providing Russia with weaponry or even deepening relations beyond being trade partners and using each other geopolitically.
China’s only interested in cheap oil. They are more concerned with maintaining trade ties with both the EU and US. If that was threatened, they would be in trouble.
After being "given" control of several territories relinquished by f.ex. the British and Portuguese only Taiwan remains unsolved in their eyes. China envisioned a war which wasn´t fought with arms; enterprises, corporations and state subsided factories would be the army to propel China into the 22nd century. In that regard Russia could with sane leadership have been the new powerhouse in Europe leading us to a new era as we are struggling with technological issues and related production. This wasn´t meant to be and the conspiracy theorist could rightfully point out the US and Chinese interest in bankrupting Russia and thus ensuring Europe doesn´t pursue that venue. That boat sailed when Putin took over though, so it´s a rather stupid theory. But yes, China´s interests do not lie in prolonged warfare with anyone or the support of any nation involved in the same. A short military campaign is a different thing, the only option Russia has left are tactical nukes, that scares me the most.
@@AurioDK huh? how will russia lead europe to solve technological issues when it itself have been struggling with technological issues since its inception in pretty much every field except nuclear bombs. hell, western Europe pretty much outclass russia in terms of technological advancements/innovation so I cant really imagine a future where russia leads technological innovation
@@Zack-fu4lo This was the hope of many Europeans when the wall fell since Russia has all the resources needed. At the turn of the millenium many saw Russia rising from the ashes of the USSR into a new super economical power, there were even speculations about getting them into the EU. The technology in question is mostly based on chip manufacturing which is currently outside of the EU. Even today there are talks about starting state subsided solutions as the EU wishes to become less dependent on China and the US in that regard. But we all know how that story went down, democracy failed in Russia and the geopolitical sphere is very different from what I imagined in the year 2000.
@@AurioDK If Gorbachev had gotten his way Russia would be in the EU now that block would have given the US a run for its money in an industrial and economic sense.
Great video as always. I enjoy your work and am excited to see what the future brings. I love how you can take the most serious topics and give them a more lightheaded...even funny spin. Bravo.
Highly underappreciated channel!! Subscribe, like and share to help the creator! I totally concur with your analysis and I think it is more likely that China will make moves to 'take back Outer Manchuria' than they will assist russia to complete the invasion of their neighbour Ukraine! China now sees how WEAK russia is and they want their land - back! Slava Ukraini.
@Dave Coyle I think China's plans have changed - from 'Invade Taiwan - Now' to wait on that idea - but TAKE BACK that huge area while russia is weak - whether they break up on their own - or not.
And they honestly never will. Xi isn't half the diplomat that Jintao was, but even he has to understand that the best course of action is to sit down, take what you can from Russia, and build up your own internal power to make up for your ally's complete and total collapse.
well Russia is not completely on its own , its been buying weapns and ammo from Iran North Korea, and probably China(sold thru 2nd or even 3rd party afficiliates). Ukraine has also been buying from Iran and CHina(throught 2nd and 3rd party afficliates) that is why you get no diplomatic problems between Ukraine and China/Iran. This war has become a arms bonanza for them. selling for massive profit ont he black market.
Good thoughts! The thousand sets of rifles and body armor I mentioned were sent through the black market, not officially. But what Russia really needs is artillery, missiles, drones, etc., not things that can be disguised through civilian purchases. There’s only so much that can be done under the table - and what is, is too little, too late - only done for profit, not to turn the tide of the war effort :)
@@icarusproject I think that to the arms seller like China and US, both country are not really losing anything, China got a “weaker neighbour” and increased “civilian” arms sales, while US earn lots of arms sales and loan gain amid ultra high interest rate. The only loser here are Ukraine and Russia, perhaps EU and Korea as well. There are no friends in country relationship only interest matter therefore a weaker neighbour mean higher bargaining power from China and higher profit margin and less “dispute”
at 1st I didn't care much about China, but now I have more respect for Xi than with Putin.. at least Xi knows better not to jump into a bloody mud & disgrace himself
Nice to watch a quality video on the conflict that doesn't endlessly complain about RU-vid demonetizing them and have a ton of adds in it lol. Good job 👍.
China is super highly dependent on foreign oil that has to come to them by sea, a few ships in the Malacca Straits and the PRC gets no oil and things grind to a halt. That and as China has alienated most of Asia, a whole lot of nations would want payback and to take the PRC down a few pegs by cutting oil to the PRC.
@@aroudedinsulance4307 I bet your real fun and have loads of friends! I was writing a comment on RU-vid not a letter to the king. Enjoy your loneliness
Nah russia is still 100% the more powerful army but russian soldiers are EXTREMELY unmotivated and lacking in morale russia is still a superpower but the issue is russia is backwards and this war has decimated the military stockpiles that russia boasted so much of. Russia isn’t JUST fighting ukraine, it’s fighting it’s own people and one of the larger and more resiliant militaries in europe. Aka russiais losing for a variety of reasons beyond a bad military and ukraine has been extremely focused
@@nekogaming5300 Would the as you say "100% the most powerful army" have to resort to using tanks from the 1950's????? They are starting to bring up T-54's to use in Ukraine. That doesn't sound like the most "powerful army".
Most Nato countries speak English, so training for new equipment is viable. However, if China donated weapons to Russia, Russian troops would have to learn Chinese, one of the hardest languages to learn to use them.
Ok, I am supporting with a 👍and subscribed... going to be looking for those other videos, because this one was excellent. Great quality and content - good work!
China is a three to our ten. Plus, look at the defensive array facing them on the east. Taiwan, whose military is both ultra modern and constantly on exercises, and a few miles away, the Philippines, who, as a result of a recent election, have agreed to allow a number of naval bases to be built in addition to the huge installations we already have. South Korea is a major power. Japan has more going on than you think. The neutering of the Russians will make the world safer for decades.
One thing i should say about China military, looking at how both countries had similar governments in the past and now, i'd rather say it will have the same if not more severe issues Russia has(Corruption, zero military experience in large scale conflicts, poor morale, also their logistics doesn't even hold a candle to NATO), their last large scale conflict was in Vietnam and they got utterly defeated there.
Whilst their last major conflict was against Vietnam, it was also 40 years ago, so it doesn’t tell us anything. Ultimately if a conflict began china could have the second strongest army in the world or the second strongest in taiwan.
@@andrewhughes7181 Vietnam were literally bordering China and they lost against the underarmed undertrained Vietnam militants (most of their actual military were either in Hanoi or Cambodia) 300 000 troops in Hanoi Around 1.5 millions in Cambodia Now imagine them fighting an Normandy against well trained professionals soldiers with actually equipment and long range missile and an actual Navy Edit: don't know how that part got in the middle
Well, I told people when Russia and China we’re talking like they were going to be allies. It was a marriage of convenience they had for wars in the 1900s.
Russia losing against Ukraine is likely what’s best for the world. In 1940, When Winston Churchill made his famous “We shall fight them on the beaches” speech, there are words in his speech which are often overlooked. I’m paraphrasing, but part of his speech essentially said “if we become conquered, we can only hope to be liberated by those who are left.” It was, in essence, an implication that the rest world would be next regardless if the Axis succeeded. History would prove these intentions correct. The world being willing to push back against Russia and doing so successfully would (hopefully) give China second thoughts about doing so with Taiwan, India, Korea, Japan, etc. I know the world isn’t hoping for WW3, but if we’re being realistic, the best chance of WW3 not happening is contingent on Russia/China having something to keep them in check.
It’s a choice China is making to keep its financial institutions active in the free marketplace. Backing Russia would be a huge mistake for any nation, no matter its political or economic status.
Russia has the resources China needs. That’s a good thing for Russia when they looked strong… I suspect a lot of Chinese theorists are looking at Russia as a target? Would you rather take Taiwan or the Eastern Half of Russia? And who would impose sanctions on China for doing so ?
Yeah. Taiwan is too important to the US, Japan and South Korea for them NOT to act, but eastern Russia? Interfering there would be a MUCH harder sell. Granted, I don't know if China wants to test its military taking the whole of eastern Russia, but I can easily see Outer Manchuria returning to Chinese conrol.
If you go back far enough everone is claiming someone else`s teritory.I can remember watching some idiot mulla whining about how Spain should appoligse an pay reperations for the land it stoll from Islam in the 14 hundreds because once Islam has conquered a teritory it is islams forever. Of cause by that rule islam owes reperations for all the christian teritorys it stoll before the crusades started to push back against islamic agressionthat had gone on for centuries before.I don`t think they like it when they get treated the same way as they treat others.
There's is one more side to this story that you missed to cover in this video, and this is one of huge importance for China... I'm talking about Siberia, of course. One way or another, a weak Russia will open the doors to Siberia for China, and this is of huge importance for China's future. For a proper comparison, I trully belive that Taiwan represents someting like 5-10% only, of the sweet Siberian pie that China put already an eye on, for very long now. Taiwan's tecnology cannot be taken by force by China, because it's so easy to be sabotaged but Siberia's resources are almost endless.
@@imademyname11yearsagosonowthis if you were born around the 18th century then made in china mean quality, look at what the CCP did to make "made in china" into trashy rip-off instead of good quality like how it were before
China is withdrawing nearly as fast as investors and businesses are from China. The last 15 months have seen an exponential increase in cancelled or non placed orders from the West. Their signalling of support to Russia plus their increased militarisation, and indeed Xi's provocative anti-west sentiments have frightened off company buyers and CEO's from placing orders with China - Sanctions are becoming a real possibility, or indeed China continuing its moves towards Taiwan and a possible war is a risk they just cannot take.
Yep. The changes are slow, but certainly seismic. Xi cannot continue to alienate their greatest trade partners without consequence, not when so many of her neighbors would KILL for the opportunities they've had.
I think China values the lesson they got for very cheap. Also if one previously assumed China is a hawkish nation, they also made a very great call by not supporting Russia from early on. At least Russia assumed west was unlikely to significantly support Ukraine. If China had made the same miscalculation, they should have made more efforts to secure that advantage. If west couldn’t place serious sanctions on oil because of Russia, west definitely couldn’t place sanctions against Russia and China. USA would have been alone with more serious sanctions while the rest of the west would have done very little besides strong words. However China by either having good intel on the weakness of Russian military or more realistic perception of western reaction chose to let Russia gamble alone - even if they could have hedged the bet significantly and gained benefits from doing so. I think the more realistic view is that China is not as hawkish as they are betrayed as. They are not willing to take gambles like this in order to take over Taiwan. So they were also suprised by the unexpected outcome and feel like they dodged a big bullet by playing it safe. If China originally or now feels less hawkish, they are actually in a pretty good spot overall. They will have big influence over Russia in future. They now call the shots instead of having to coordinate or compete with Russia. And most importantly, they now have more accurate expectations of western responses to any potential conflict. Gaining this information was extremely costly for Russia, while China got it free. China will likely adjust their thinking on their border disputes because of this, and try to take advantage of Russias weakness while the war is ongoing and after it.
You had to mention what military aid to Ukraine was provided, because first western tanks are appearing just now, first western SAMs appeared less than half a year ago, first MLRS and other heavy equipment was not being sent as russia attacked.
Do not overestimate Western support during the war's first couple of months. The first serious weapon that West supplied was M777 howitzers in April 2022. Javelins would do nothing without massive soviet artillery amount, airstrikes by Su-24/25, soviet air defense, and tactical missiles like SCARAB-Tochka. In the summer of 2022 soviet stockpiles were depleted and Ukraine became dependent on Western aid. Right now western supplies for such a huge war are more about not to lose than go and win - decisions to give new capabilities(like tanks, jets, tactical missiles) are very slow, and still no solid production of artillery ammunition
You would have thought the Russian would have prioritized blocking any resupply of Ukraine from the west from day 1 but the media ignore this as seemingly does Russia.
@@canadiangemstones7636 SEAD operations, it's what everyone who thought Russia was at least somewhat competent would have been able to perform. They have all the aircraft and missiles but none of the talent to pull them off like NATO does effortlessly.
@@LS-jv9hp you mean by hitting military supply targets in Poland & getting a NATO member directly involved in a conflict they are already unable to win?
@@AnnaClouds-ej2rv Not in the slightest, SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) is the first step in gaining air supremacy, something Russia crucially needed to be able to win the war. The reason why the SU-27/30 and 33(which accounts for the majority of all their fighter jets that outnumber all of ukraines aircraft 3/1). Russia has been building since the cold war. You gain air supremacy then you control your enemies supply lines like what happened in the 1990's to Iraq and Yugoslavia. Don't get me wrong they did try but their SEAD operation lasted one week(maybe two but its difficult to tell) and was very ineffective due to garbage SR (special reconnaissance), ISTAR (Intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance) and a lack training on the pilots for that role(the most shocking factor frankly). In comparison the US launched SEAD ops for around a month to make sure they destroyed all AA systems before major combat ops in gulf war(frankly the most successful war since the invention of firearms). If they gained this supremacy in the first month of the war it means they could fly SU-35s through Lviv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, sytri, cherihivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk. It would practically stop all major arms being sent to the East. Along with being able to use their aircraft much more proactively at the front lines.
Another reason Russia hasn't done is that fact they still use ww1 and ww2 tactics as soon as things go against them and they never evolve their doctrine
you get an up vote just for explaining the reasons why communism doesn't work in real life despite being a great idea on paper. Also why you kinda touched on it just to drive the point home if China were to get directly involved they can likely expect many of the same sanctions affecting Russia to be applied to them as well and that would me an massive hit to their economy. China's is Russia's largest trade partner by far but Russia isn't even in China's top 10 largest trade partners and most of those countries have all levied heavy sanctions against Russia. So not only would China need to spend tens of billions of dollars worth of equipment to match Western aid to Ukraine but they would also immediately lose hundreds of billions of dollars worth of foreign trade agreements.
They may also be deeply concerned about how well their kit will work in today's modern wars. China has not been involved in any serious kind of conflict since the 70s. They also do not export their kit so most of their stuff is untested against their peers.
Russia never had a "puppet state" in mind. In fact, they are doing everything they can to absorb Ukraine, as reflected by their issuance of Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens.
"The 2nd most powerful army in Ukraine." lol. That just kills me. The discovery that the Russian military was not all it was thought to be makes me thing the same about China's PLA, which also uses the old Soviet Era playbook of constant, overblown military parades and continues threats of "we will destroy you."
Just ask India about the LADAK area in the Himalayan mountains about a year ago there was a little skirmish between the indian and chinese patrolling the zone The up shot was 60 chinese dead mostly because half were thrown into the river below them The chinese also decided they needed more and better unarmed combat training since most of them couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper bag Just like russia their military is mostly for show
