Why Demand is More Important Than Supply in Canada’s Housing Affordability Crisis

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This week, Urmi and John talk about the big ‘demand side’ numbers you should know in Canadian housing.
How Canada’s population growth impacts our housing market and affordability issues and why we can’t ‘build our way’ out of the problem. Also, why investor demand is hard to measure and why it is of particular importance.
Today’s episode is a return to our semi-regular feature called Move Smartly ideas, where Urmi and John unpack and discuss some of the bigger issues impacting the housing market in Toronto and Canada.
Listen to this show on your favourite podcast platform here: link.chtbl.com/movesmartly
If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please share, subscribe and leave us a positive rating on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from - thank you for your support!
Today’s Show Links:
Our previous discussion about the big ‘supply side’ numbers that matter “How Should We Really Be Measuring Our Housing Needs & Results”: • How Should We Really B...
CMHC Housing Affordability Report: www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professio...
Ontario Housing Affordability Task Force: www.ontario.ca/page/housing-a...
Contact Us:
John Pasalis, President and Broker, Realosophy Realty, Toronto | Email: askjohn@movesmartly.com | X-Twitter: @JohnPasalis
Meet with John and his agents at Realosophy Realty to discuss your own real estate questions: www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn
Urmi Desai, Move Smartly Editor | Email: editor@movesmartly.com | X-Twitter: @MoveSmartly
About This Show
The Move Smartly show is co-hosted by Urmi Desai, Editor of Move Smartly, and John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on RU-vid and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada.

Опубликовано:

25 янв 2024

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Комментарии : 43

@Jancan20 3 месяца назад

Everyone was afraid of being labeled Xenophobia if they dared say to slow immigration

@chriswatson1698 3 месяца назад

No one expects Asians or Africans to share what they have built in Africa and Asia with white people. They evicted the while colonialists. It is time to evict the African and Asian colonialists.

@chriswatson1698 3 месяца назад

Immigration gives businesses more customers.More people competing for the chance to earn a living, keeps wages down and profits up. Capitalists will scream "racist" or "bigot" or "xenophobe" at anyone who wants to limit their access to cheap labour and more customers.

@BlueHawk001 3 месяца назад

If Canada is even remotely interested in fixing the crisis of housing, it needs to immediately ban foreign buyers, ban blind bidding, heavy taxes on second/third/fourth properties, slow immigration to only about 100K, ban foreign workers and a huge reduction in international students. Then and only then you will see wages rise, homes become cheaper and cost of living stabilized so the younger Canadians have a chance at life. Until then, the carnival will continue.

@helenqu980 3 месяца назад

Why ban foreign workers? We need cheap migrant labours to keep our tomato prices low. On the other end we need high tech foreign workers to drive innovation.

@elietoronto 3 месяца назад

As much as what you describe makes sense from a simplistic economic POV and setting a cap on demand for population/shelter/food/ etc could potentially neutralize the craziness we have on housing cost, cost of living, salaries,etc this approach inadvertently exacerbates the economic/social problems that our Canadian system is founded on - Resulting in a higher Age Dependency Ratio. The rout cause of higher population growth and the whole baggage that comes with it is Canada’s unwavering mission to keep our Age Dependent Ratio low in order to support our public services and fund healthcare/transit/social services/environmental services. As of 2022 Canada’s age dependency ratio is at ~ 53% meaning that only 2 working individuals (independents) can financially support non-working individuals (dependents younger than 15 years old or older than 65). The liberal government of JT has blindly optimized towards lowering ADR and for keeping it below 50% levels (ADR was 47.6% in 2015) because they messed up between 2015-2020. Unrealistic Solution: Fix funding for public services and start with the Canada’s universal healthcare system which still uses fax machines to communicate with patients/physicians/hospitals.

@MoveSmartly 3 месяца назад

@@elietoronto Thank you for this comment - do you have a source for the ADR on which you are suggesting Canadian provision/funding of public services is predicated on? Other than sheer incompetence/being distracted by other issues or cynically buying votes through particular positions on immigration, I have been trying to assess whether this is any technical public policy based explanation for this Trudeau govt pop surge! ~ Thanks! Urmi

@elietoronto 3 месяца назад

@@MoveSmartly Yes definitely, I have some publicly available stats (Gov of CAN Financial reports, CIHI, Population) data to back up my claims and more than happy to collaborate. I’m currently working on a project that looks at ADR side by side with Fed/Prov earnings/spend to make sense of the economics of our publicly funded system. Health care makes 35% of total gov spend and stands at $226B, a ~ 4.5% bump from 2021. I want to compute the # of working immigrants we need to bring in and collect taxes from to keep our HC budget buoyant and contrast this “benefit” with the consequences it brings to Canadians, mediocre living conditions for immigrants and housing supply.

@MoveSmartly 3 месяца назад

@@elietoronto Thanks - stay in touch with us at the show at editor@movesmartly.com ~ Urmi

@saveourplanet4204 3 месяца назад

Must watch episode for all our politicians too!! Another thoughtful, intelligent analysis! Until we can fix our housing and infrastructure crisis, immigration needs to be limited to: 1. only YOUNG (not close to retirement) QUALIFIED TRADES to help build homes (ensure they can start working asap once familiar with our regulations, no union delays). 2. Not near retirement DOCTORS and NURSES that upon arriving immediately take courses to qualify to pracitice in Canada. No people nearing retirement age, no bringing your aunties, uncles, grandparents, elderly parents with you, until we fix our housing and healthcare crisis. And don't get me started on Ford... privatizing Healthcare and selling Ontario to the highest bidder. Let's get our "house" in order first, then welcome more immigration so they too will have somewhere to live. My parents immigrated 🇬🇷 to Canada in the 60's due to a need for housing trades people. I'm very pro immigration when it benefits both Canada and the immigrants arriving. We are currently doing a great disservice to both populations.

@Yasmine-mm1yc 3 месяца назад

Canada is bringing the wrong kinds of migrants. Indians do not want to work in construction, they view it as low class work. We ought to be bringing in Mexican tradespeople if we want construction workers and builders.

@ameenomidbakhsh2084 3 месяца назад

Amazing work, very insightful, keep up the great work 👍🏼

@Cameron_David_ 3 месяца назад

Thanks for talking about the data even when it was not popular. The top bank economists are now talking about the out of control population growth and its just sad that we allowed the multiculturalism ethos to be exploited by puppy mills and big box employers to such a degree. The people making the policies already own multiple properties and just seem completely out of touch with what millenials and genz can afford.

@Mark-ei8fy 3 месяца назад

Love your channel. And appreciate the clear concise language and analysis of the situation.

@helenqu980 3 месяца назад

In addition to building homes, the govt needs to build transit to and from major hubs. Unfortunately building transit is even slower than building homes.

@shelterskelter 3 месяца назад

Ostensibly our population growth is unhinged and the retirement spending impluse coupled to create a major shit storm. We got minimum wage workers to keep boomers happy price wise. Further the downward pressure on wages is horrid. Within Nova Scotia retirees from Ontario came and went Ham on landlording and used their savings to plunge us into a new feudalism. Trades workers cannot cannot cannot even afford to even live here.

@Ryan-ri7zn 3 месяца назад

(53:24) You should be very worried. So should every Canadian.

@latananderson3289 3 месяца назад

As far as I can tell, this issue will never be solved.

@davidanthony5894 3 месяца назад

100%. The crisis is here to stay. There will always be demand.

@SmilingBakedBaguette 3 месяца назад

Funnily enough, that's the mindset that fuels the crisis.

@marcoalbanese8221 3 месяца назад

Great show guys!! My 2 cents… I truly think that the true powers that be know the affects of the policy choices they make because ultimately, there are so many people that benefit from said policy choices. Irrespective of the consequences of certain decisions/policies (ie, financing instruments, construction materials, zoning, immigration, etc, etc) there are many people, especially immigrants, who will move heaven and earth to succeed in this country. I believe that though rules and policies need to evolve, many still have to make difficult decisions to succeed in making their housing arrangements tenable without the need of even more government intervention. And unless the true power brokers are affected, I think, especially in Canada, that the status quo will continue.

@rachelk8368 3 месяца назад

We need to lower demand- decrease international students, non permanent residents who are not doctors or nurses or trades people, and kick out people who have overstayed their visa and increase supply- ban short term rentals on Airbnb etc, limit the number of mortgages to one persons name to 2 or 3 and kick international owners/ speculators out of the market space.

@Michael-pg7rv 3 месяца назад

How on earth does a competent country allow for 800K international students flood into the country in a single year. Supply has been an issue in our housing market for sure but this problem that we are in right now is driven primarily by this growth in students. I applaud Miller stepping up and actually taking action on this issue but it is simply not enough and too little too late. It is going to take years to get out of this mess.

@A__SB 3 месяца назад

With all the bylaws to prop up property prices, good luck with new builds. But I am hopeful the crash will fix the artificially inflated prices.

@otter662 3 месяца назад

One conundrum : (START) demographically more people in canada are choosing not to have kids owing to the cost of living (also there is the sentiment that it would be not fair and responsible to bring a child into a world where their less prospects) -> ultimately this creates a talent and a labour shortage -> so government increases immigration targets to correct for this shortfall -> but government at all levels chooses not to change zoning laws that would increase housing stock -> more people come and then there is more demand on the existing supply of anything -> go back to START => cycle => cycle => cycle ...

@rdefacendis 3 месяца назад

Housing completions don't need to respond to population. What is happening now is more people cramming themselves into existing homes. Exhibit one: The Brampton basement with 12 Indian international students. Most 1 bdrm condos now are occupied by 4 or 5 people......

@75west 3 месяца назад

notes 19:00 Urmi Desai “why wouldn’t housing experts notice that demand would make a housing problem?” “why was housing sector slow in noticing the problem?” John Pasalis “they thought we could just build our way out of this” magical thinking. you cannot scale supply that quickly. 21:00 John Pasalis “I was accused of being xenophobic” we had to get to this point for supply-side advocates to see the problem 24:00 chart New Immigrants & non-Permanent Residents & Housing Completions 48:00 Urmi Desai “all the blame the politicians are getting for ramping up immigration is warranted” comment: I will bring this up at the community association

@jz12390 3 месяца назад

Trudeau has done a number on Canada..

@peters5090 3 месяца назад

how much are new immigrants even able to buy houses? would they even have an impact on housing prices if they aren't buying?

@Yasmine-mm1yc 3 месяца назад

Why do you assume new immigrants don't have cash? Some sell the family farm, the cars, the houses, before coming here and are flush with cash

@Yasmine-mm1yc 3 месяца назад

They also take up rentals and live 6 to a basement, which causes rents to skyrocket ... $3000 per month ÷ 6 people is affordable

@peters5090 3 месяца назад

@@Yasmine-mm1yc yes i know they rent and pack people into small spaces. I guess that part of the reason i assume they don't have much money, because why would you tolerate that if you could afford better living conditions. I also assume that if you are wealthy enough to come over to canada and buy a home right away, you were probably doing pretty well in your home country so why leave. admittedly i don't know and im just making assumptions

@SmilingBakedBaguette 3 месяца назад

@@Yasmine-mm1yc I'm pretty confident in saying that the very minority of immigrants can afford doing that. Me, even if I were to sell all of my assets from my home country, my currency is worth 25% of the Canadian dollar. I'd have to sell me entire life's assets just to put a down payment on a 1 bedroom condo. Selling cars, lands, etc? They're worth nothing compared to prices here.

@SmilingBakedBaguette 3 месяца назад

@@Yasmine-mm1ycI do agree with immigrants causing rent prices to go up though, after all, we need a place to live, but if I can't afford to buy it, who did? Who's the one living off of the productivity of others? Probably just another big corporation. Hah, he just mentioned who's been scooping up all of the properties at 55:29