Why Didn't REAL ESTATE Prices Go to the MOON! 

People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.

*Amazing video, you work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires*

I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quiet mediocre neighbourhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighbourhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.

We had a rate cut, no action, and homes in my small town have dropped 15-20% in a month. They're still terrible shitholes that are priced double what a brain dead zombie would pay for them.

Prices hold and sales slide. Classic bubble scenario playing out.

Bank of Canada should not cut the rates anymore. The only way to bring the real estate down is to keep the rates above 6%. If the home prices are down then the interest rates won't impact the affordability. The main problem is that people/investors are buying houses as how they buy stocks and now they crying about affordability. The interest rate increase will not affect anyone if the average house prices drop to $500,000 instead of $1,000,000. The bank should keep increasing the rates to keep the speculative buyers out of the market. Buyers are waiting for the price to drop.

Just sold and bought another home and the banks are seriously tightening lending. I needed to provide everything short of a DNA test so I think they are in trouble with the renewals so they are reducing lending in a big way.

If you see the sentiment has changed. Dramatically. We have not even called a recession yet and people have pulled out of the market. Under these circumstances for new buyers why would people put themselves through this stupid situation.

We just moved to a small town in southern Ontario. The new condo we moved in (rental) is struggling to rent out the units. Right next door there is 2 condo buildings that are empty 🤣 this area received a boom 4 years ago 😂

Why was the realtor in counseling? They couldn’t get closure. Things are only getting worse from here. If you ever feel like no one cares, miss a mortgage payment.

On the mark since I've been listening to you

Hard to enter the market when the banks won't lend knowing people can't afford the 3 to 5k monthly payment on the average Canadian family income of 80-90k per year. Half that goes to the groceries, the other to the car payment

Real estate agents lie. Oh my God

From the London and St Thomas Association: "June Stats Release currently not available". There was a statement for June, but no in-depth data was made public.

Sold a year ago. Channels like yours Jon really helped me understand the market at that time. Thank you

It’s very tempting to build bad products during a hot market and sell it to greater fools, but eventually the music stops and someone has to hold the big bag.

I live in Calgary. I didn't expect a change with the rate cuts. I am however very amused at the "price increases" that sellers are after. Lots of sellers are trying offload homes (specifically condos) for WAY higher prices than the units are worth IMO. I've already seen dozens of price decreases in the inner city area.

There's plenty of so called "industry experts" aka real estate pumpers. Another "Like" for Jon Flynn

Thanks for the data on the Newfoundland market! Cheers from St. John's

"The Toronto Condo Update Condo inventory in Toronto has reached a record 10,688 units. Meanwhile, sales fell by 28% in June while this inventory rose by 16% and active listings shot up by 70%. The people who are willing and able to look for a home right now can't live in a 1 bedroom condo with a max 600 square feet. This is the classification of the vast majority of the units available for sale right now. These units were solely built for investors to rent out because at the time it made economic sense for the developers, the investors and the city to collect their precious taxes. A money grab for all involved. No one ever thought about the end user that is currently in the market shopping for a livable condo right now. Now that end users are calling the shots, hopefully developers will put all future efforts into building larger, more livable condos. "

Anyone who knows the business is saying the truth. Not all brokers are the same. My advice? Don't over leverage yourself. If you cannot afford a 10-15yr am on your mortgage you are over leveraged. Sell now and downsize. If you are "waiting," buy when it makes sense. Game theory. Play out the worst case scenario (housing crash by 50% and 10% interest rates). If you can not weather that storm with your current strategy, you need to adjust. Leverage is risk. Be ultra conservative with your family home.

I live in Nanaimo and the amount of rentals that are being built is staggering. I am talking hundreds and hundreds of rental units for a city of 100,000 with no new businesses, restaurants, etc opening. There is definitely a rental bubble as well. A 3 bedroom apartment in a brand new building a few blocks from my house is asking 3200/month.....in rent! Insanity.

Thank you Mr. Flynn. Your reports are excellent. Kind regards and God bless.

I'm a realtor and I've always said these prices aren't sustainable. Even if the rate falls by 0.5% more over the already 0.25% decrease, it's still not going to do anything. Prices are coming down and we haven't seen the bottom yet by far. Prices will fall even if they decrease the rates now.

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” - Upton Sinclair

Is it typical in your area to advertise properties in July with snow photos or is that just a thing your office does on a regular basis?

Prices are quite resilient in the GTA so far. Given prices have increased 100 plus percent in last 10 years, so far correction in prices is tiny. There doesn’t seem to be any panic. People can just move to a 40 plus year mortgage and even if they sell the cost for rent is the same or more. Unless you can move to Hudson Bay, a tent, or leave the country - there is no opportunity to lower the cost of accommodation. I don’t see it yet, in fact many sellers are still asking peak or above peak prices. Seems there is still fomo.

It will be difficult to do massive rate cuts considering US has yet to do their first. Despite loose lending policy , it will be hard to stimulate housing market.

Once the condo market takes huge hits this summer and fall, the bigger outlook will be when then impact on detached RE follows the condo market It’s obvious condos will get hit first but will detached and freehold take 3 months, 6 months or a year longer to follow suit Time will tell Curious if investors can delist again in Nov/Dec to keep listings down or if the financial pressure will be too much this year as interest accumulates and more renewals come due

Great work Jon 👍 the bubble needs to deflate before the effects of dollar devaluation comes into play 🧐 I see assets in bubbles falling while necessities and commodities inflate?

My own prediction is that on average, homes will drop 45% (% change) from the peak. Call me crazy

Near 7% unemployment has got something to do with it. That and rates are still very high for the current prices. 😂

I am 53 and retired at 50. 1 thing I did do to retire early was to get out of the 401K and IRA programs. Bought rental real-estate and I am now a Limited Partner in about 1500+ units from collabrative efforts in the fund my estate planner has me invested in. I do not work.

Interesting how when rates were going up you always said that it takes a year or more for hikes to impact the market but the same does not apply to cuts I guess?

So many houses for sale, and no one is biting. Greed, greed, greed.

Interesting to see Woodstock is down the most lol, where I grew up. But I sold in 1998 and moved to BC. Here in Victoria BC house prices are flat and near the peak still, but inventory way up. The coast has a special relationship with single family homes, being in a perpetual and worsening 30 year shortage, and as a destination for folks with money seeking the best climate within Canada. Condos will fall substantially, houses will not but instead stagnate for 3 to 10 years with maybe a modest 10% drop. The solution is to fix our entire economy to be more productive with a smaller civil service and freer trade friendly to small business then we can produce more as a nation to be more prosperous, for families to have more buying power for buying houses. We'll have to train more tradesmen to build the homes of course, but that relies on the rest of the economy being more prosperous than it is now.

The number of 'For Sale' signs in my area are giving the number weeds on my lawn a run for their money 😆

Hi I really like your analysis and I think it makes total sense. In this market which is a better option, buying a pre-con with move-in date in the next 6-9 months or a re-sale with a target of closing in the next 6-8 months? Please advise. Thanks.

and how many owners have dipped into that house equity to make a bad situation worse

Imagine if you bought in Brampton/Mississauga in 2022 and realizing now you could have saved $250,000 A quarter of a million dollars. 💵 💰 I have a friend who bought in Brampton in 2013 for $250,000 roughly.

People are in denial about the pandemic being the top.

Here in Edmonton, yes these stats are reflective of what we have going on! Seller's market even within an hour of the city. Pricing remains strong within the Greater Edmonton Area but prices are still creeping up in smaller towns, hamlets and villages as people are shifting out of the city!

All of the speculators bought houses 'before' rates fell, so once rates actually did fall, there were very few remaining speculators buying anything.

Jon, can you include North Bay in your data. Thanks

Great information and thank you for sharing

Sold my coquitlam house last year. Put the Money in the S&P 500. Got a 20 percent return so far. Houses are not worth it.

Calgarys prices have been raising so rapidly. A lot of people that over paid are gonna get burned if supply ever evens out. Calgary has been in a sellers market for such a long time, and continues to do so

Prices will fall but not plummet. If anyone is waiting for a $1M home to drop to $0.5M they will not see it. Most people selling are exchanging houses. They can hold or wait. There are people with cash who will scoop up good deals when the conditions are right, not burst. There are investors and speculators who will lose money but they will not be the majority. This is where the buffer zone lies for the market. Everyone needs a place to live. Those who cannot afford today will need to continue to rent. This is what happened to most European cities. We are just at where Europe was decades ago. As yourself this question: Do you think a 4L jug of milk will ever go back to $1? It sure didn’t start at $5.

30 seconds in, this is the start of the “rate cutting cycle” NOT a meaningful “rate cut”. 25 basis points does nothing for someone who can’t qualify for a mortgage and isn’t able to enter the market *YET*

AI doesnt need to buy a house Lots of companies making use of AI are large used to be well paying companies Houses/condos have a way to fall Theyll be turned into data warehouses once their value has dropped 80%

@JonFlynn, I really appreciate your videos. However, I find your "% change from peak" chart somewhat misleading. It creates the impression that there is a widespread decrease in prices across the country, while in reality, the majority of the red bars represent regions in Ontario. If you exclude these and compare similar units-such as provinces with provinces, or big cities with big cities-the picture looks quite different.

Everyone is SO focused on sales and purchases. Have you tried just looking at the rental prices? A 1 bedroom doghouse(500 sq. ft) is going for $2400(including utilities) WITH A WINDOW. YES, WINDOW is the highlight of the property, apparently. In and around Toronto

You should also do a chart of all these that shows at what point in the past (most likely pre-Covid) was the price at the same level as today. Because what you call as a “loss” at 6:52 is simply a correction. Once you chart the long term prices, it will resemble an inverted U chart.

Glad to say we just bought a house. Sad to say I think it’s going to be a while until we see equity and definitely don’t expect the ROI that the boomer generation just experienced. With the amount people are charging for rent even in Northwestern Ontario, it doesn’t make sense to continue renting. Our mortgage is less than what people are charging for rent. Rent is a major issue with Canadian RE. Should be regulated to where people can’t charge more than their expenses. I know people who are renting houses that are completely paid off for $2500 + utilities. We’re not someone’s pension plan. The behaviour of home owners is pathetic

The government doubled the money supply,,,,ya, the only way I see interest rates going,,,,,is UP

When the central rate was 4 % the market was very hot In the gta. I sold a few listings over asking price.

thanks for the video Jon! :)

Rate cuts can’t happen until inflation hits 2%. Allowing rate cuts to happen prematurely will force more inflation which will cause more pain on the consumer and ultimately lead to hyperinflation like it did in Argentina.

Trust index - from the bottom: - con artist / fraudster - used car salesman - politician - real estate agent .... haha - exception John Flynn 🎉 .. be wise be safe.

How will I unload my 5 pre-con condos 1mil each 😭😭

@Jon I think you actually missed the story of the week, which is that active listings are way up - pointing to a major turning point coming in the coming weeks...

A lot of homes being built around airdire and Calgary quicker than I’ve ever seen . It’s like they wanna get them built and sold before it’s too late.

There is no unlimited supply of sellers, there is no unlimited supply of buyers ... eventually market gets exhausted and takes considerable time to breath enough for next sprint... my cents

June statistics show Fraser Valley 3 years average home prices increased by about 10% that’s from peak year 2021. Where does John see prices falling 😂

I just hope N.B. realtors et al got the memo that prices are declining 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

I'm seeing lots of for sale signs lately but not too many sold signs on the Bruce peninsula

As always the Flynn reality check!! Real Estate and all other assets are priced to perfection with nowhere to go but ........flat or down 🎉! Gold, anyone!?

Rate cuts happen when economy sucks diminishing real estate values in affected areas. Unless artificially stimulative.

I was curious about my homes value. I tried a few tools from banks, real estate agents etc and the :value has not changed this year. Their online tools say my house is still the elevated value before the downturn.

Influx of properties for sale because the deadline to meet the capital gain tax inclusion rate of 50%. Reaching max inventory soon.

Who is going to buy?

In every interest rate cycle in my lifetime, RE continues to fall for a year or 2 after the first cut.

Rates in Canada dont get set by the BoC. They get set by the FED. Nothing moves until the FED starts cutting rates and it looks like they're about to start based on latest press releases. Expect late fall to be the spring market that wasnt.

Nope dead wrong. My place not down over 20% from the Spring 22 peak. Not even close. It is up about 35% from mid 2020 though 😂

Charlie Munger described bitcoin as similar to fox hunting "the pursuit of the uneatable by the unspeakable". He should have added Toronto condos! 🙂

The muppet boiler room condo flipping market is dead 😂. Unbelievable but true

Check out David Rosenberg’s economic analysis. We’re already in a recession. Government spending and housing have propped-up GDP. Sooner or later, reality has to kick-in.

I can't waste time watching the video after reading that stupid title and description. If you expected that to happen after a 0.25% cut, it says something about your IQ, not about the market.

When was peak pricing ib canada? 2022 0r 2023

My neighbour and his wife are each making 20 bucks an hour and living in a 750k home they bought just 2 years ago. Went and mowed his lawn because he couldn’t even afford a lawnmower or furniture in his house . Go figure. And yes they are immigrants.

Hi Jon, love the channel and honesty but some feedback.... would be great instead of just reading headlines and charts ( that are produced by the people who do not want the truth out ) why not present the real deals happening out there. I am in Mississauga.... friends all over and for the past 12 months... massive 6 figure losses all over the place. Brantford to DT TO. Would be great for you to show people real numbers, not filtered charts that are averages which in our vast country really does not show what is happening. Just some feedback.... keep up the good honest work.

Looks like we found the bagholders 😂

Never, ever trust industry predictions. Ever.

Trick question. Prices are already on the moon.

2:40 I'm not clear i you're being sarcastic here, my kids here in Vancouver will never own a home until the inherit the money they get when I die. That's my definition of "to the moon".

The problem is that we cant simply look at the demand side, we need to grow supply for the type of homes that are affordable but livable as well not shoe boxes built for investors in the short term rental market.

Don’t bite this last meat and pay the whole bills

Best investment I did was to buy a house in 2008 It was listed in Aug for 1.2m and in November I bought it for 845k

This is what nobody's talking about Edmonton. Property taxes just went up by 10% and will go more higher in the next coming years, The city is going to implement the 15 minutes city where u live, work shop, eat within 15 minutes because woke liberal controlling the city. Crime rate is one of the highest in Canada. Unemployment rate is creeping up in the city, lots of homeless people everywhere, everytime there has been oil price crash there has been a big recession in Alberta especially in Calgary and Edmonton. Good luck finding a good high paying job here. Think very very well before moving here. There's a reason why house prices has been that low for so long. I am myself selling and moving to somewhere better. Good luck moving to Edmonton!

Just wait when my South Asians start working 6-7 jobs at once, things will improve lol.

Beware of expert, live within your mean.

and rents started falling....

Interesting, all those places that are slightly up like Newfoundland, Quebec, ect are all pretty cheap markets compared to the GTA, GVA, anyhow.

Didn't go to the moon, prices because no moonbase to flog for higher pricing

Spéculation immobilière and pot-de-vin.

These so called experts my foot

IF?? you had ANY genuine ability to see even a month into the housing future ... You would be V V Wealthy. Absolutely NOT dicking about here.. for Utube $$.

Nova Scotia...ok...why don't you break out Halifax.

Bad products in the market.

No one in Calgary is going to learn a lesson we are lapping Canada especially Niagara Falls with 3000 active listings. You’ll be my gardener soon Jon…