Why I’m Not Worried About the Banks (Yet) || Peter Zeihan 

Let’s help him find his way back. “Turn left, Peter!”

He’s been up there for quite a while.

Maybe so, Sir, but not today.

Does he want to do that? 😂

Have you seen the condition of the world today? He's better off staying in the mountains.

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@@TomD226 Please how can i find your advisor?

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@@TomD226 Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.

It has really hurt millennials who had been saving, paying their bills, and thinking there would be a market correction to bring an affordable home purchase into their reach. Instead, home prices increased by 30-40%, and interest rates doubled, leaving many professionals stuck in renter limbo.

Your 100% right. The primary owners of real estate are the Boomers and Financial institutions. Neither one of those groups need to sell their assets until there is some real pain in the economy and they are forced to sell those assets. If interest rates are still high when that happens then hopefully the Millennials will finally have a chance to get in the game. I just don't see that happening for another 18 months or more. The first fed rate hikes from last year are only just starting to be felt in the financial markets so the volatility we need to get those assets selling might be just around the corner. @@LRRPFco52

i'd add supply chain issues have also made people like me weary of making any major purchases in terms of video gaming systems/computers. I'm sure I saved 3 grand because of all that alone. I didn't just not get a ps5 and psvr2, I stopped playing ps4 altogether and won't buy any games. I'm sure there's a million plus who delayed getting new vehicles as well due to supply chain issues. The benefit of covid was that it was hard to be introduced to new things to buy, and being locked down made it hard to enjoy things we use to spend money on.

@LRRPFco52 I am a Millennial who started off saving and investing (which I thought were the lessons of the 2008 crash). I have friends who bought homes early when they had the chance, and others who believed the market was going to correct. I realized late in 2019 that hoping for a correction was just speculation; it was also a form of speculation that has a huge opportunity cost - years of enjoying and paying off one’s own home. I bought in 2020 and it was the best financial decision of my life. I urge everyone my age to abandon the ridiculous wait for a correction. Timing the market should not be a priority for those who want a home.

Unfortunately you were the anomaly. Most people used that money irresponsibly

Yeah. He’s brilliant but I can’t avoid the whiff of American Exceptionalism about him.

ASMR for the rich? Interesting....

Except you could have literally done none of that, walked across the border with 24 words in your head, and gone about your business. I can't imagine ever going back to needing these middlemen clowns to take 100 years to process my own funds. Educate yourself on Bitcoin and stable coins. Good luck, friend

I bailed out of anything labeled as emerging markets back around 2016-2017. China was becoming too large of component in the funds and I was becoming leery of Xi Jinping's consolidation of power.

If the market returns are out-sized, relative to “normal returns in the market”, then you’re likely investing into a shady deal

@@Bootman899 Bitcoin.✋️😭

​@@Padoinky"pre-legal"

To be fair he’s referring to USA

USA is in just as bad as a situation, the use the same type of banking system called fractional reserve banking, it is the biggest ponzi scam there is. This guy is not being truthful, just like all his other info is false

If you believe the Ukrainian war save USA banks, you really are a knucklehead.

And a good story in a sea of bad stories.

💯

His Bitcoin call is backward, but otherwise the man's mind is solid

I am on the same boat. The dude shoots at everything that moves and obviously he cannot be an expert in all of these things. There would simply be no time to gather deep knowledge about sooooo many subjects that are happening right now. I see Peter more like a celebrity/influencer. But.... At least an influencer that gives you food for thought if you wanna go deeper into a particular subject. Certainly much better than the see of nothingness we find everywhere in social media. If only 10% of the content out there would be on pair with this guy we'd avance much faster as societies.

He mentioned car loans and CC are 10 year highs but still under 3% which is still historical lows. Be careful of headlines that dont analyze the data properly.

​@WhyteHorse2023 I'm glad someone is seeing this. Let's not forget the 1.7 trillion dollars in student loan debt payments that start again next month. There is no money and starting next month there will be even less. I'm not sure what Peter is looking at.

@@jeremiahlynn9584 cheers appreciate the insight!

I was thinking the same thing. Credit card defaults are an issue and the COVID handout has been spent. Things could get dicey.

Yeah, I was rather surprised by the rosey outlook on the US economy given what I know of the stats on paying 1/3rd of income to home/rent prices and the cost of gas and food. I don't think people are nearly as flush with cash as stated.

He is wrong on this one. We have too many underlying issues in banks which will start showing up in next few months. It will not be pretty.

he is heavily biased in favour of democrates.Ukrain war made oil prices go up.he is absolutely wrong.

The guy who parrots the talking points of the US intel community is an “outside the box” thinker 😂 Enjoy your 5th booster shot

He is wrong. The case shiller says that housing bubble 2 is WAYY more overvalued than the 2006 one. Also we had the most bank failures since 2008. More by $ value. HUGE banks got bailed out this spring already

@@tarunshroti3255 I am watching from outside the US so I do not see him as political. Only Americans see everything as political.

Right?! Wtf. I like this man’s content. But this is so out of touch…

Don't forget we are flush with cash as well 😂

What are you expecting from a perpetual US optimist? 😂

When you pay higher wages to the workforce at the bottom of the pyramid, someone absorbs that cost…and it is the consumer. Everytime.

Agreed. Car loan defaults have increased considerably once the Covid cash tap was turned off. Credit card delinquency rates are also increasing. He claims people are flush with cash. Then why have credit card balances crossed $1T? Adjusted for inflation, it's lower than 2008, but not a sign of healthy consumers. The commercial real estate sector is truly the one to watch. With increased vacancies following the "work from home" dynamic that developed during the pandemic, many of the companies which own that space are struggling. When they have to refinance their loans in 2024/25 at the higher rates we're experiencing it's going to get ugly.

Delinquency rates were artificially low due to the fact that no one was allowed to foreclose...

Delinquency rates fell to 3.37% at the end of the second quarter (2023), according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s National Delinquency Survey, their lowest since the MBA began collecting data in 1979 and down from 3.64% year-on-year.

No shit lol. Money is drying up

That is largely correct, but most of those people are relatively small borrowers as far as the banking system is concerned. So while that is a societal issue it’s not a structural issue for the financial sector. It says something about the wealth distribution in our country when almost half the population is functionally broke, but that’s not a problem for the financial sector…yet. Delinquencies on auto loans and credit cards are starting to rise.

Americans are cash flush? He’s in complete denial.

Billionaires/Millionaires have badly skewed 'Average Wages' for the population...

I’ve followed him for a while. Ever since he visited the CIA and briefed them his tone has changed.

Otherwise known as "living beyond their means". There are a lot of aspects of your typical American lifestyle that are not needed and people could cut back on. Their lives may not be as sexy, but they will be able to live more in the flush and less on the edge.

I find these segments to be just long enough to finish a three-egg cheese omelette. (aged cheddar)

@@Vzzdak sounds nice, what cheese

and your daily dose of Peters sunny disposition.. or something..

You cheddar heads are delusional. Stealing hundreds of Billions via Russian sanctions, & asset theft of Russian oligarchy (besides those Russians who Bribed Biden Crime Family) is the reason the banks are being propped up. Its called stolen cash people.

I couldn’t agree more - his insight is interesting, the scenery is amazing. And he doesn’t take himself so seriously

He probably thinks it’s all fine

Not good

5. Buying power has been flat or falling for any 2 year period since 1968.

this isn't the first business cycle

@@Ryan-Fkrepublicnz Government leaders working with business leaders is not a business cycle at all.

Uh, you realize you just stated the actual root of the problem: Manhattan is Manhattan. Housing there has never been and will never be affordable. People who want to have lots of cash don't choose to live in places like that.

You do realize that employees work where their jobs take them! If your firm is located in Manhattan then you’ll look for living spaces in or near NYC. And your absurd statement “people flush with cash dont choose Manhattan “ is inane! Manhattan has billionaires row and is known for its wealthy financial industry employees! You have a near childish level of over simplistic understanding of financial realities and need to just be silent

@@zibbitybibbitybop goes without saying. No one will own a home in manhattan or even Brooklyn without being a millionaire. I assumed she meant tristate area. In any case, her point stands. Look at median salaries by state. Even outside of the most expensive states on the East and west coast the prices are too high to afford a monthly payment with the interest rates what they are. Zeihan is way off here. He’s painting a too rosy picture and I’ve begun to majorly doubt some of his prognostications, based on some serious errors I found in his book.

@@zibbitybibbitybopthe level of inaffordability has gone up tremendously in expensive areas. Yes they were always expensive, but historically that expense was met with high incomes relative to the rest of the country. Those “high” incomes have fallen significantly behind the cost of living.

Ah yes. US - the ONLY country in the world that still offers 30 yr mortgages. Mortgages that are pawned off to Fannie and Freddie so the taxpayer or FED (inflation tax) can subsidize home buying. Not to mention being able to deduct the interest expense. US housing has always been a massively subsidized PONZI. Those chickens are coming home to roast. The US government will simply not be able to continue that policy once government interest expense exceeds tax receipts - which will happen. What will your country do then. Declare war or concoct some other nonsense calamity on the world to distract the populace ready to bring out the pitch forks?

Right, and bound to hit regional banks hard. Need to be bracing for this one, I think. Surely a looming recession vector if nothing else is.

Malls have been an increasingly minor player for decades and big vacant downtown office buildings in major cities are visible and create buzz but small business parks have been bustling. This is a natural realignment of how commerce is done. It's not an indication of overall economic health.

@@barba928 rising had a piece that commercial real-estate has depreciated by forty percent on average since covid. Since the pandemic a lot of American office real estate is not only upside down, but the rifi- rates are ludicrously high. i'm sure everyone who's important or connected will be bailed out so your lack of concern is probably warranted.

Let’s place some bets then. Ur going to offer a wager, smart guy?

@@windowboy thank you, let's check back in 6 months

It’s interesting that black rock still has billions invested in China and isn’t pulling out anytime soon.

​@@TheCJUN I'll bet you a dollar.

I was hoping he would mention CMBS!

Risk of default is rising for $1.2 trillion of commercial real estate debt.

I'm genuinely interested in your perspective. I see a-lot of reports stating China is facing economic turmoil because of commercial and residential developers. I've also seen a-lot of reports claiming manufacturing is rapidly moving out of China. Are you noticing any of this?

The city of Birmingham has declared bankruptcy, and seven other councils have also gone bankrupt following its collapse. Not all countries have the ability to print money to solve their financial problems. Only USA.

To be honest, while the challenges China faces are very real - the numbers prove it, just living day to day here you don't really 'see' it. However, when you talk to people, they acknowledge that times are tough. But tbh, China is so good at suppressing bad news that most people here don't even really realize there are serious looming issues. @@devonteforeman

I think he can`t respond @@devonteforeman

Lei's Real Talk is another good channel for this sort of content.

Gee...another "user-#@&$...". Y'all must be related, right?

I think he did address that. You know, when he pointed out how many Americans used their various COVID relief payments to pay down debt, thereby leaving Americans ON AVERAGE in a better position than they were previously. The fact that not 100% of us managed that trick does not change how positive it was for many others. Or the fact that AS A SOCIETY we are better insulated from a financial shock from external sources. Life is hard. Nothing has changed there. From 1992 to 2012 the US never, NOT ONCE, saw CC debt defaults fall under 3%. The average for 20 years was about 4.5%. As we recovered from the 2008 crisis, the US average fell under 3% for the first time ever. Q1 2020 (just before COVID) the rate was at 2.66%. It plummeted during COVID. This quarter it peaked at 2.77%. So stop your whining. Debt defaults are STILL about HALF the level they have run for most of the last 30 years. If YOUR finances are worse, maybe you're doing something wrong. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS

He said Americans got out of debt during Covid

@@sathdk79 lol wha ta hack

Esp. the regional banks may be at risk with a dwindling value of commercial real estate in their portfolio. It might scare customers away, taking their deposits with them.

I was about to ask the same. There are tons of empty office spaces as people have been working more remotely and I’m am worried it is a bubble that might burst… Plus the fact that many downtown business in US rely on the office workers, there could be some chain effect…

Well, bad loans are traditionally what kills a bank. In terms of the broader economy, the kind of bad loan doesn't particularly matter. On a closer view, this will hurt big cities, as their best tax base essentially disappear when commercial real-estate companies go under. Triple that for NYC.

The True Middle Class still is, yes. But that definition has changed from where it was twenty years ago. I know for a fact I'm no longer in it. That's fine; I'll live. My parents still have their house and refinanced when they could. We're still living well enough, and what cash we make is circulating. That counts for something.

It’s called fake numbers. Like how china does it. Like inflation the REAL unemployment numbers are MUCH higher. They know the results they want and change the data interpretation to hit the desired marks. Those low end places are barely hiring as well.

Perfectly fit into my 10 minute commute every morning.

Both of those things are wrong. Also, banks (additionally) make money by investing with your money.

Small to Midsize do. larger banks like your BofA and Chase make money from investments (current banker), investing in the market for themselves.

Median Mortgage payments have gone up dramatically, as have interest rates. That's just two sources of significant cash-flow increases for the banks. Then look at student and auto loans. Brutal rackets that predate on young students and buyers, sucking up all their liquidity. Banking sector revenue has increased thusly: 2019: $477 Billion 2020: $491 B 2021: $503 B 2022: $513 B 2023 has been really good for them so far.

@@Dan-lt8vm not exactly. They invest the profits, but the principal goes back to either the central bank or the bank that loaned them the reserves in the first place every night. They usually don't keep balance sheets overnight.

Banks make most of their money from being able to crate it out of thin aiir. It a system called fractional reserve, which has been around for over 400 years. If you think I am wrong please ask google about it.

Yes quite amazing

Plus, he's over 10k feet altitude

This is low country, not high country.

That’s the definition of good zone 2 cardio :-)

Nah, our banking system is good for at least 10 minutes. Banks may not be at risk from China, but loans backed by commercial real estate, which he did not mention, remain a significant worry.

Car payments as well

​@@arrtwo1375car payments is auto loan delinquencies.

@@arrtwo1375 Yes, agree. I stated "and auto loan."

That's true, but remember that OTHER BANKS were all doing the same dance to one degree or another. And most of the other banks, including the ones the hold a lot of startup capital all saw the writing on the wall and gradually sold off the 10-yr and 5-yr bonds and moved all their money into lower paying, shorter term bonds. THIS IS NORMAL and they all knew they were supposed to do this. The execs at those banks were greedy and failed to do basic banking safety. It wasn't a trap they did not see and could not avoid. They got greedy and their banks died because of their greed.

Not true. The banks lobbied and paid Republicans to gut Dodd Frank, and by doing so they incurred more risk to themselves and the American Taxpayer because Banks are the ultimate Socialists; they lobby Congress to privatize all bank profits, and to socialize all their risks on to the American Taxpayer. Yes, Corporate American Capitalism is at its core truly only Socialism for the rich and powerful.

did he ever call a single downturn like say Peter Schiff? Or he called one thing that he got right, everything else I can find he has ever called he has been off base on. He is an aloof middle aged idiot, he has no clue what is going on in the middle class that is what has happened in America, there is a divide everyone who is making less than 100k knows the reality of what the truth is, everyone else thinks everything is just a okay as MILLIONS of low skilled people flood our border with no stop in sight, what's that going to do to the middle class? Instead of increasing wages they would rather have 30% of men setting at home and miserable because they are forced out of the market, they wont work for that little and not enough skill for the higher end, but do you or any of the higher classes care? Nope, Trump is similar to Hitler in one way, look how the people prostrated themselves to Hitler because the thing they have in common is they were seen as saviors of the people from an elite class of people that wouldn't pay attention and couldn't care less what happens to the people in that country. There is no way this union stays together, I actually think Biden is a Manchurian candidates and that is his goal to breakup the union, because if you can do that American power wanes rather quickly

Our real estate and rentals seem to be most heavily impacted, with generational family wealth escaping. And since they're simply happy to buy or rent what they're after, we have the rent seeking taking place that causes problems for everyone else.

Peter talked about the federal deficit (more specifically the debt ceiling debate) in this one: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-RoWK9kdiHIA.htmlsi=eEATfft79WR-g0_I

any collapse will reverb through the whole world and the response is to buy US treasuries and bonds, making the US financial system pretty well positioned

*Re-watching horseshit won't make it into honey*

@@WhyteHorse2023 Go back to Bang Tango

My question exactly

I don't think that Peter is the one to answer short term macro economic questions.

I had to working restaurants after not being able to find any other work. The reason they can't find workers is because it's a horrible job. They won't let you work full time yet it's just as physically demanding as construction job that pays better and give you 40 hours a week. They break every rule regarding employment. It's wasn't uncommon to work 15 hours straight without a break and then have three or four shifts canceled after an hour and a half. They don't give you the required breaks. In construction they blow a horn and give everyone required 15 minute breaks. The restaurants don't even have a chair. They deserve to go out of business .

GA: where do you think this market is going Ben? Ben: Buy Honey

@@Ryan-Fkrepublicnz it’s a bear market obvs

Maybe he has. But I've also heard the Fed is going to raise rates twice more this year. And unemployment is still at the lowest rate since we bothered to measure it. So maybe we should not believe everything we hear on either side of the prediction game.

@@markpukey8 Thanks for the input related to my comment. I did hear about the fed's projection for two rate hikes by end of year but that was a few weeks ago. Did you hear this in just the last week?

@@bradsillasen1972If it's not an actual STATEMENT by Powell, it's just some talking head blabbing. Ignore all of them until Powel speaks for the Fed. They are famous for NOT TELEGRAPHING what they intend to do. Don't worry about whose talking head blabbed the most recently. None of them have more of a clue than any of the others.

​@@markpukey8​Well taken. Guess we'll see.