Why has Sinn Féin’s Support Collapsed? 

It’s because they have two bases, the progressive young left and the anti-migration rural bloc. The anti-migration bloc saw Sinn Fein support two unpopular government referendums. They started to leave Sinn Fein, then Sinn Fein tried to win them back, this led to the progressive bloc feeling disillusioned too.

As a young person I have noticed peoples’ souring position on Sinn Féin due to what they see as ‘incompetence’ and Sinn Féin ‘talking out of both sides of their mouth’ -trying to appeal to everybody and subsequently appealing to nobody. I also notice an increase in support for coalition parties as people are beginning to engage more with politics before the upcoming election and the sort of anti-establishment vote which Sinn Féin had enjoyed the support of fizzles out as people realise that their vote has to count.

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="172">2:52</a> the fact that the two other major parties went into coalition with each other is also key here. Sinn Fein is still untainted by any failures in government- every failure in terms housing and healthcare can now credibly be blamed on *both* main parties, and Sinn Fein gets to be the only credible opposition party. It’s kind of like how Labour are doing so well in the U.K. at the moment - they’ve had 14 years in opposition, there’s nothing that the Tories can really blame them for that will really stick, because they’ve had the reigns of power for so long. It’s the same with Sinn Fein.

Local and EU politics is more of a popularity contest for candidates. Midlands Northwest literally elected a jockey who had no campaign just because people knew her name. We haven't seen any national polls since this but I do imagine there will be a dent

If successive governments here in Ireland had actually cared about housing and the worsening crisis in the past, immigration would be a way smaller issue than it has become.

Everyone in Ireland either votes for the worst party or doesn't vote at all

Guys i love the videos, but the intro sound tracks are WAYYYYYYYYY too loud (<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="45">0:45</a>). This has been going on for a long time. Pls fix it and make it just slightly louder than the rest of the video and if u can't do that reliably, just make it the same volume with the rest. Pls.

Definitely think McDonald is part of the problem. Michelle ONeill, the leader here in the North, is polling as more popular in the South than Mary Lou.

Pronunciation of 'Taoiseach' was quite good, which is refreshing to see in non-Irish media.

Fine Gaels change of leadership gamble has definitely paid off, looking at the polls

I really don't think immigration is above housing,I think maybe they're both linked but most people are worried they'll be homeless at the end of the year

I only clicked this to find out if I've been pronouncing Sinn Fein correctly

That joke at the end was killer well done!

The main cause of Sinn Fein's seemingly bad results were low turnout, particularly in urban areas and among younger voters (i.e. SF's main support bases) so the people who actually turned up to vote in the local and European elections were older, rural and wealthier voters who generally favour the right anyway. In the immigration issues, it probably won't hurt the party too much in a general election, as housing becomes the main focus during the campaign. Local government isn't really responsible for housing, so that issue wasn't really on the ballot, and the nature of European elections means that immigration is naturally more in focus, your own graph in the video shows that the importance of the issue declined hugely a few months after the riots in Dublin and it was really the election that brought it back into focus. Also worth noting that a lot of Irish people vote on personality over parties or issues (especially in second order elections) the coalition parties had more incumbent councillors who largely got reelected off their own personal popularity in their local areas, which SF didn't have. Alongside that in the EP election fg and ff ran several celebrities as candidates which attracted votes from people who just know/like the candidate rather than the party. Even with all of those things though, the coalition parties have their worst combined results ever, and fg didn't even over perform the polls despite shifted turnout demographics, so if anything that's a bad sign for them.

The 2020 general election was very much a protest vote against the ruling parties not necessarily a vote of support for SF however local and general elections are two very different things in Ireland, in local elections people vote more for the person than the party. SF will likely still do very well in the next general election as people want a change of government but only if they can put forward policies of HOW exactly they are going to build more houses when the current government is already throwing billions at it, SF are big on message but very light on details!

I come from quite a liberal background when it comes to immigration, however through my family and friends it’s completely switched. I would’ve never even considered immigration a problem a few years back, now it’s up there with housing. It’s sad really, all we as Irish people want is honesty from our government, they are divisive and secretive because they know the Irish people are still susceptible to generational trauma in regard to these issues. That also won’t change is Sinn Féin go into government and I believe that’s why the % has fallen too. It’s become a populist party. we have 100k Ukrainians in Ireland, they get 800 euro rent allowance, medical cards and now free university from our government, which the Irish public now have to pay for. While everyone else (Irish or not) have to pay the highest fees in the EU. It’s unfair and divisive which has turned Irish people quite aggressive and hostile especially in working class/middle income areas. Irish people want equality for all, and it stems from British rule and generational trauma from years of occupation and oppression. It’s a very touchy subject. Ireland is still 90% Irish but we look at Britain, France, Sweden, Netherlands and we just believe our culture and language has already been decimated from the get go, we just don’t want to lose anymore of that.

Hi, excellent video!

Next year we will see it, I don't see the decline anywhere.

Should also be noted that there was a very strong establishment push in the media. In the months before the elections the number of "hit" peices targeting Sinn Fein dramatically increased. Understandbly if they are going to take control then this sort of thing and digging is to be expected but personally I have never seen it for an opposition party over the incombant government.

"Can't please all its voters" and not "can't please all it's voters".

I wouldn't call it a decline, but simply consolidation.

We're not doing this. It's silly to put out a video that brings up their increase in dail seats and only 1 EU/council election. In 2019, right before they had their historic general election result in 2020, they had historic defeats. They went from 3! MEPs to 1, and their councillors fell from 160 to 80, literally halved! And it annoys me to no end that nobody talks about it. This happened right after marylou took over. Council elections and EU elections are vibes-based and ML doesn't have the vibes for council and eu elections that Gerry Adams did, but she does better in the general. Nothing explains Labour and Soc-Dems coming 4th and 5th in council elections and second last and dead last respectively in EU elections. Nothing! Im not denying there are legitimate reasons for their decline in support. But christ can somebody get a journalist to throw a glance at a wikipedia page please im literally b e g g i n g g g g g

One day the european left will understand being against deregulated migration isnt "racist" and this day the far right will lose a lot of its attractiveness.

Thanks!

Its almost as if you cant keep telling people what they want to hear and expect no one to realise some of it is mutually exclusive.

Fine Gael is centre right? LOL

Top marks on getting the pronunciations correct.

Alongside all the other points mentioned in the comments its also worth noting there's a group of voters who just jump from party to party. From the PDs to PBP to SF. There's always a new hot thing to vote for every cycle.

Good analysis - well done!

Great job on the pronunciations!

"political wing" not "Public wing".

Sinn Féin : increases seats and vote share in both local and EU elections, doubling their seats in the EU TLDR: Sinn Féin is declining! Sorry what

As an Irish voter, the reason that Sinn Fein has lost support is because there is a perception among many Irish people that the incumbent parties (Fine Gael and Fianna Fail) have done SOME things to fix the problems that we are suffering as a country (they need to do more on housing) and all Sinn Fein do is cry about how terrible things are but offer no solutions. Mary Lou doesn't help either.

I think sinn feins tack rightwards on immigration is a large reason for this, they thought that taking a harsher (but not too hardline) stance would broaden support but it has alienated their base. A lot of people then moved over to independents because they thought sf were too soft on immigration or that they had betrayed their left wing values. That, combined with the swarm of new far right parties, and independent ireland (a new party right of ff/fg) have also undermined their nationalist base. (Even though a lot of irish nationalists have historically been left wing). Local/eu elections are also not indicative of how they will do in next general election. There's much more reliable on personalities than parties, for example.

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="329">5:29</a> “Can’t please all it’s voters” - it’s (with an apostrophe) is ALWAYS a contraction of ‘it is’. For the possessive version there is no apostrophe. This is another TLDR deliberate error designed to get people like me to generate comment fodder.

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="352">5:52</a> why are they putting flags of a bunch of western countries and India on a poster on the top left of the screen in a protest against immigration?

The way governments are run today are so ineffective and out of date.

At <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="203">3:23</a> you could’ve just said ‘opposition’. There is no official opposition or lead of the opposition in Ireland.

SF's traditional support base was drawn from rural and working class areas, in recent years though they have begun peddling more progressive identity politics in an attempt to win votes of more upper class people such as well off university types who call themselves republicans as a sort of fashion statement almost, which in turn has alienated a lot of their traditional base

I really do not understand why so many people are suggesting that SF is losing ground, when, in fact, they increased their number of councilors at the local level (81 up to 102) and doubled their European representation. FF and FG did not perform so well. All that seems to have happened is that SF's upward trajectory was not as steep as had been hoped/suggested.

Why is this video not on TLDR UK? ...oh, right.

That was an unfortunate typo

It's unwise to read too much from Local/European election results in Ireland. Sinn Fein is likely to do much better in the General Election, same as the last cycle (did poorly in Locals, did excellent in General). They just need to run their strategy better - running the right number of candidates per constituency.

I always watch these videos at 1.25x and 1.5x, then forget Nadja, Ben & TLDR-team doesn't actually speak like a hyper-mouse 🤣

New character unlocked

Please move the microphone. It's very distracting. Even tilting it so it's more perpendicular would take up less visual space without moving it away from the speaker.

The Taoiseach has stated that there will be no general election until at least after the Budget is announced in September and likely not until 2025. This may be good for Sinn Féin as the last 2 budgets had a lot of opportunity cost, such as doing little for housing, and with much of what they are doing benefiting landlords and not tenants.

Just curious for any Irish people willing to respond to me, an American, but what has Sinn Féin actually done since their meteoric rise over the past few decades that actually helped lessen the housing crisis?

I had no idea they were still around. Thought it was a Molotov party kind of party and defunct now.

I like this presenter.

Oh, look at me, I can speak slovenly

Come on... Half politicians are blowing up busses or attacking music festivals.... Be fair for God sake

She looks so cute with those glasses

Looking at the graph at <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="214">3:34</a>, its seems to me that the support that Sinn Féin lost did not go to the governing parties but to the grey "Ind.+others" cathegory, which would be the third strongest party if it was a party, surrpasing FF and getting close to FG and SF. A new video with a deep dive into where this quickly rising group of independent candidates' popularity comes from would be interesting.

its very simple , thick Irish middle class old kodders, I was in a rural post office a week before the elections and was told quite sincerly that " Sinn Fein were going to take all of our houses and all of our money and give it to the immigrants?! where did did you hear this I asked, "oh the local fine geal councillor, well he believed this and 1 out of 3 people now not voting, Ireland is in big trouble

Best logo in politics

Independents didn't win any significant amount more votes (or seats) in the recent local elections. They just got more attention from the media. The 2 parties Social Democrats and Aontu won more votes and seats than Independents. Also, I like Nadja and Georgina. They make an effort to pronounce words properly (for example, the word Taoiseach)

Maybe Ireland should try actually having political parties that have differing positions on major issues, who was it who said that the two main parties are two cheeks of the same ars?

Because most people are quite happy with the status quo when it comes to Northern Ireland - having both British and Irish passports is seen as a benefit to their citizens.

Savage Brilliant Ad :O

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="352">5:52</a> what's with the weird combination of flags on their sign?

How did Ireland get out of the 2008 financial crisis?

What happened between April and May 2024 that the importance of the topic of immigration rose so sharply?

The last year SF have shown to be no different than the FFG pact

The entire first 4 minutes can be summed up as 'From an approval high of 36% Sien Fienn have fallen to 23% and here is why.' please stop padding and waffling. While I understand background can be useful it has no bearing on the answer.

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="122">2:02</a> Who is the seat in black between the independents and Fianna Fáil? Aontú is beside Fine Gael, so who are they?

What if Sinn Feins having majority in both Ireland Parliament and Northern Irelands Assembly ?

As a NI person from Derry, I can see SF overtaking the DUP in NI but the party taking a less ambitious strategy in the next dail elections due to their repeat poor performance in local and EU elections, though more ambitious than their last dail elections so they could possibly still be the main governing party. Although with Simon Harris being a strong campaigner this could be more of a challenge in the south (republic)

What are the implications for NI seats in Westminster?

Respectfully, this was hard to hear and understand - the speaking style is hard to pay attention to, as the diction is poor. I hope this information comes across as constructive, as it’s meant to be.

Oh . Sinn Féins vote share is up 2.3% on the last European election. They have gained seats in locals and European elections. Not a stellar performance but hardly a melt down. The Greens and other government parties are in more trouble. But don't let the facts etc...

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="405">6:45</a> wait... is that ballot counting?

By "immigration" are we talking legal immigration or asylum-seekers?

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="151">2:31</a> sounded like you said "illegalizing".

As an Irish voter Sinn Fein has 2 problems: 1. As a, moderate voter, I'm unwilling to vote for any party associated with the IRA, even historically. 2. It's unclear from their literature what they'd actually DO, if given power. They just say they'll solve XYZ problems without being very specific about HOW. The problem for SF is that the governing parties are also saying they'll solve XYZ problems while also saying HOW (even if it's ways I personally don't like). The end result is that Ireland currently lacks a credible left wing alternative. SF may be left wing, but they are not credible.

Chaos is a ladder

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="423">7:03</a> that’s brutal 😂

Omg TL:DR finally mentioned immigration. Great job guys!

at like <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="365">6:05</a> there's an anti-immigration poster that just says Genesis <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="63">1:3</a>-4 and that is bleak.

Maybe because the name is hard to say 🤔

Ruairí Ó Brádaigh in the 80's saw the treachery they were to the republican movement, the goals of all true Irish republicans and the people of this island. Some ex Sinn Fein members I know who left in the late 2000's repeatedly told me the shift in Sinn Fein to consensus politics in both the North and South betrayed everything they ever believed in. In the last number of years what Sinn Fein are now is barely recognisable from where they were 20 years ago. They embraced the EU, They embraced mass immigration. They embraced globalist capitalism and all the trappings that political power gave to them. Some Sinn Fein members are some of the richest landlords in Ireland and the UK. They forgot they only existed because of their grass roots support. They have now lost that.

Schadenfreude at Sinn Fein's expense.

The Housing Paradox...

‘Fall’ TLDR segments are getting dumber everyday. Love the random crystal ball prediction thrown in at the end.

Last quarter, I hit the $100,000 mark, which was exciting but unremarkable. You continue to work, save, and make wise decisions despite the uncertain economic climate. Nevertheless, my portfolio has seen a significant fall in spite of market increases. My goal is to enhance it and optimize the yield.

No Irish reunification of 2024 Star Trek lied to us

I hate how the most important issue in the EU became the 400 thousand immigrants, less than 0.01% percent of the population!!! If countries like Austria and hungary stopped being racist and each member took about 0.01% of its population as immigrants per year while ensuring ghettos don't form we'd have no problems with integration.

Mary Lou wearing a hijab and speaking at a Muslim meeting was a massive middle finger to their core supporters and majority in Ireland.

So, this is a COLLAPSE of a party accordding to you? WELCOME to the SENSATIONALISY media space!

Irish voter here there's a few things untouched on here. 1. In the last year SF have increasingly supported issues in line with the incumbent government and then subsequently backtracked and done a 180 when their polling numbers went down. (Hate speech bill, migration policies, the mentioned referenda). This has led to voters seeing them as shills who will say whatever they need to, in order to retain / gain more power. 2. The party had it's roots in Nationalism and the idea of an independant Ireland, but increasingly post-covid they have started to seem more globalist / pro-EU, leading to a lot of their grassroots voters abandoning them. 3. Sinn Feinn post 2008 have receiced many votes as an alternative to the stagnant status quo as more of a vote against the incumbent parties instead of a vote for SF. However as they've shifted further left their stance on many policies are virtually the same as FG, the main center left party. 4. Over the last decade they've moved increasingly away from the working class and completely abandoned them in favor of younger left wing voters. This has left working class people & conservatives without a party to vote for, leading to a huge increase in grassroots independants and several new conservative parties being founded in the last decade (Aontu, IFP, Independant Ireland & the National Party).

Sinn Fien SMASHED! 🔨

Sinn Fein is an opposition party with no mandate to govern and don't differ much in policy to the other 2 main parties. Their incompeence is hidden in the North by the system of mandatory coalition. With regards to removing links with the IRA, many members are "former volunteers", with hints that the army cuncil still has a say in the parties direction, further backed by their ability to keep Saoradh from taking up arms in the North. On the global stage the threat of IRA violence helped keep EU focus on an all Island focus during negotiations. Sinn Feins position on immigration and other policies is a difficult line to walk as they have a more liberal base in the North and a more anti-immigration line to toe in the Republic

wasn't that a chinese dance or something 🤔

"Ireland is full" from the country that has less people now than it did 200 years ago.

Sinn Fein has always been the party who never had solid policies or feasible plans, they were famously awful at proposing bugets for how they might run Ireland if they got into power (practically always having some "tax the leprauchauns for their gold" level of silliness) and really only did the "see those two, FF & FG, see how they made a mistake..... well if WE were in power we would have never made that mistake, we promise" type petulent opposition.

Hum, what about a we do want more immigrants and refugees, but we want local governments to decide if they want to accept anyone in first kind of stance? That way people won't be sent back, good from a progressive point of view, but immigrants won't end up on the streets before a local government decides to accept them in, meaning that they're presumably okay with them. And local self determination tends to be popular in rural communities.

"Brilliant" Female face & voice. Thank you Thank you Professor Rog 75 yo retired American university marketing professor Remember your audience They get bored. They tuneout very easily.

Sinn Féin : increases seats and vote share in both local and EU elections, doubling their seats in the EU TLDR: Sinn Féin is declining! Sorry what?

How can any Irish person vote for Sinn Fein, a party thats sits in British parliament in the north of this island and passes kings law on his subjects Sinn Fein are tratiors Erin Go Bradgh we will rise again

Local and EU elections say nothing about the support of most bigger parties throughout Europe. Firstly, the number of voters that cast a ballot is easily more than 50% lower than in National elections. People are more concerned about what is going on in their neighbourhoods and thus vote for local parties and local candidates. Secondly, they cast a protest vote for the Eu elections, but they really vote different in national elections.