Watch Rob from Tesla daily last video. He’s going to stop producing Tesla daily videos and focus on other things. He will once in a while post videos when there are big Tesla news.
thanks for sharing the heath update. i know its personal, alot of your subs are concerned for an update but as long as you are comfortable to share. appreciated!
Thanks for that update information on your wife’s health. I was wondering how to ask. So glad to hear of the positive progress. Keep up your strong support, she and we as a community appreciate it. You do a lot of good Dave.
From sorting blocks by NN training to doing household works is enormous leap of faith to technical challenges. That said, in a controled commercial or manufacturing environment, humanoid robot may have more practical future and financial incentives for multiple parties involved ( just not for the to be replaced workers). That could well be a fact of life in next decade.
I think Optimus is on the edge of usefulness now, as a telepresence platform, i.e. controlled remotely by a human using waldos. For example, it might be able to handle hazardous materials in a nuclear power plant or chemical plant. If it can sit in a chair and type, it could be used for remote office work, while being able to physically interact with co-workers (attend meetings, etc.) when necessary. Just add the capability to project an image of the user/controller's face onto the robot's face. It could disrupt expensive business travel, by allowing people to "travel" by porting into an Optimus at the other location instead of having to fly there. Once it is capable of staying balanced on rough and uneven terrain and getting back on its feet if it falls, it could be used for construction or exploration on the Moon.
Dave, thanks for the update on your wife, and glad to hear she’s doing well. Sometimes it takes a major illness to heal from and kick ourselves into gear towards healthy living. In that way, it could turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Wishing you and your family all the best!
1:31 The walking is a brain issue, not a body issue. They haven’t leaned to walk using end to end neural net training, they just use human generated code to walk. That is a challenge and one that I think needs to be met before it can function in real world environments under real life conditions.
Class of 2023 here. Currently holding 263 shares and continue to buy until I hit 500-700 shares within the next 2 years. My average cost is $227, so would love to average down.
Continually surprised that no one talks about powering Optimus. The battery requirements to keep it balanced and upright has to be substantial with constant micro adjustments and the form factor isn’t a skateboard with a low center of gravity so the mass matters.
With our aging population the potential for elder care is a huge benefit to society in general. My parents and in-laws are in their 80s and I wish Optimus was ready now.
Yeah, I CAN imagine "over the air" updates for optimus. I can also imagine over the air hacks for optimus. Much like AI itself, this technology is moving far faster than the security for it is. There is not one item on the face of the earth that you can label hack proof, but we ARE going to move forward anyhow aren't we?
Dave, what do you think of the video where the robot is folding a shirt, it seems like someone is controlling on the right of the video, could it be fake?
Consider what could be accomplished if a Tesla Bot were deployed as the driver for non Tesla vehicles and devices? What an awesome way to leverage FSD and the Tesla Bot!
Domestic Tasks are not a first Use Case need for a Humanoid Robot. These will be used in Factories and Dangerous Situations a Decade before any Public Use.
Dave, Im surprised to hear you are in my city of Vancouver, if I run into you on the street, im stopping you for a selfie. You are one of my favourite youtubers. Best wishes for your wifes recovery, im thrilled she is doing well!
Before the video even starts I want to bring up some points. This is designed with the unbox method. If you look at all the connection points, everything is attached with one two or three bolts and one plug. It's put together like Legos for extremely fast assembly. If you look at the new design for the leg, it is also made out of what seems to be a single piece of white injection molded plastic. These are made at an extremely low cost points and for extremely rapid production. They are also designed to be built by robots. On AI day, they also stated that the design of the actuators was also highly focused on engineering for simplicity of manufacture as well as all of its capabilities. The goal is probably 10 to 30 billion of them by the end of this decade. And when you look closely at how simple the actual design is from a manufacturing and production perspective, you will see that this is actually possible. Watch the video again. It's not a complicated design, it's just highly tuned.
The hardware is simple. All of the tasks that you said were hard tasks for a robot are already trainable with mobile aloha!. Your job is to report on this stuff and yet it appears that you're missing quite a bit.
We need to see the bot capable of being trained with both verbal instructions and observation, before it is ready for consumers to train it. Training with teleoperation won't cut it.
You always have good insight and commentary, Dave. What I want to hear about (I'd say more of, but haven't heard any from anyone yet), are the social, political, and business ramifications (other than "cheap labor!" and "they're gonna make so much money!") of this coming technology. One thing I wonder is if robots may be part of the solution to the human population problem, especially the aging populations of the world. Governments around the world seem to have only one solution, which is "increase the birth rate!" Meanwhile there's hardly any wilderness left and many animal populations are crashing. Perhaps robots are a partial solution? Maybe. But what happens to labor, even with labor shortages? How does this affect the poor around the world, if at all? And so on...
Think of the difference between fsd for the car and job specific actions for a robot. A car needs to know how to read road signs, identify pedestrians and animals, unexpected open door avoidance, traffic patterns and a whole lot more. Comparing that to job specific tasks that are to be done over and over for factory work and you can see why Optimus will be deployed very soon.
On the cancer prevention they say the Paleo diet the best. Sugar and carbs feed cancer. Plus there's lots of other things that reduce your risk. Also keeping your weight down there's a direct correlation between body weight and cancer too. Good luck hopefully she stays healthy and you. Thank you
Interesting point about robots like Optimus feeding dogs. It's convenient, but I wonder how it might change our bond with pets. Reminds me of Elon Musk's view about AI - could we end up being more like 'pets' to our own robots? The human touch matters, especially in pet relationships! 🤔🐕🤖
Key word is potential - could happen but may not. Nothing demonstrated to date suggests this ever comes to fruition. Big caution here before getting too excited about this potential. Huge hurdles to overcome. I think the hurdles will be addressed but not likely before 2030. Go back to 2016 and listen to what was said about FSD. For me that is the one frustration I have with this community. No one talks about it…instead all breakthroughs are just around the corner. The audience is getting fatigued with the forever around the corner.
Even before a fully functional brain is in place, the human form and this level of dexterity might become useful in some situations when danger or radiation is involved.
Over joyed to hear you wife is doing well Dave. I can't imagine the stress this has all put not only on her but your entire family. I wish her, and indirectly you, continued health and recovery. Great report on what the robots might do. I hope they are stong enough to hold on to my dog for a walk, sometimes she likes to pull!
This focus on domestic tasks is way off the mark. Value will be in commercial applications where robots can save money. Cooking and cleaning will be way down the list because it will amount to an added cost until mass production brings costs down. So what jobs go first ? Think about that.
I think Optimus will be great in factories, not in households. And maybe service industry like laundromats, hotels, kitchens. But there will be very complicated environments. Nature (sand, stone, water, bugs) is one. I have been gardening all day and will tell you it'll take until the 2040s before Optimus will move beyond watering plants. I think these robots are great for 'boring, repetative tasks', as Elon said. I of course agree with you and chatGPT in the very long run, but in the first iteration, it will be semi-controlled/low-chaos environments where Optimus will be most useful.
Really good to see a few more videos from you lately. All my prayers to you, your wife, your family, and all the medical staff. Much love, happiness, well-being, and success!
great, another vid from youtubers TALKING about the robot that won't realize until 10 years later. If FSD takes that long to achieve (not yet !) , the robot will take longer. All those tasks u mentioned are not easy to be implemented properly.
Yes, also the factory fork-lift of the future will be driven by AI and have cameras to see all around. It wont have a seat and wait for a robot to climb in and drive. You won't be maintaining hand controls on the truck or wasting time or wearing out the robot or wasting the energy. The best part is no part! "It's made human-like so it can work in environments made for humans" Think about that. Isn't that the is the antithesis of "First Principles"??? It compounds costs/complexity and reduces efficiency. I'm an automation engineer, I wish they would put AI on all the existing dumb robots. Besides the unproven AI, which is harder than FSD, Look at the fingers on Optimus! Could it even pick up a needle to thread it? Start a roll of tape, put a lid on a cup, make change out of a register? How long would it take to peel a label off the backing? pick up a pen and write? A Person, without looking, can pick up just one small screw out of a pile and orient it in his hand. A person can reach into their pocket and count change without looking. Please tell me the "easy" jobs it will be able to do!
@@zaphodbeeblebrox2817 Open and close a zip lock plastic bag, stuff a pillow into a pillow case, pick up a coin from a flat surface, detect a food item has spoiled and should not be used...the list goes on and on.
When fsd launched many experimented with it but now it's gotten better no one really uses it anymore except people who make videos with it. The only way they gonna get people to trust fsd full time is if they make cars that are only fsd and can't drive normally.
@@mattnelson1716In a capitalist society this is how progress is made. Yes benefits just like the opening of the US supercharger network at no extra cost to the consumer.
@@mattnelson1716 Why yes but to is it even a fraction in comparison to what the Petro companies receive or have received ? EDIT added on to your point, I used the words " extra cost" . You ain't paying more . If your local or federal government are paying for an EV Supercharger be thankful that some of it can go to Tesla. 1 whole cost is cheaper from installing to cost of equipment ( you can see tenders of Tesla costing 30% of competition) 2 . Reliablilty uptime is incredibly high across the network many times more reliable than it's EV competition. 3 Tesla has been installing the Supercharger network for many many years the vast majority is unsubsidized .
Fingers crossed that your wife will be absolutely fine. Diet and exercise are important but just as important is your mental wellbeing. You need to get your head in the right place. My mum tried every “alternative” option there was, and they probably really did help, but she couldn’t find inner peace and didn’t deal with some demons. The cancer got her in the end.
Why use humanoid in house first, may be more valuable first sell it to company, enterprise and later for individual.. like Microsoft target enterprise first
My understanding is that the video provided by Tesla showed a robot being teleoperated and no software was used. It was like a puppet on a string. The test was to see if the robots range of motion and dexterity was enough to be useful.
so if it falls over, injures a child or an elderly person ? Also it has not shown any autonomous ability like folding a shirt, that was done with VR controlling.
Just thinking about sending your robot to walk your dog and getting your dog and robot stolen at the same time. Tesla is going to have to integrate GPS into Optimus so it can walk back home if it gets stolen... haha
Thank you for the progress on your wife. Good luck. Actually, the folding clothes appears that it basically is a real-time duplication of a person standing next to the optimist and performing that task. The signals were picked up from the human movement. then passed to the robot to simply duplicate what the person was doing. It is still quite amazing, but it is not the neural net Initiating the manual movements that I thought it was originally. You can see a couple of the persons movements on the far right of the screen occasionally.
I really doubt chat gpt told you that was what a robot was good for.. that seems soooooooo scripted. Robots can do way bigger things than clean laundry and stuff. That is actually a stupid thing for a robot to do at first.
It's lovely to have you posting frequently on a topic you have researched a lot. The Tesla investor community would be especially appreciating the timing with Rob finishing up. Well done on making healthy changes to support your wife to be preventative/resilient towards the return of cancer. Have you been continuing with your AI language teaching software or have you had to put it on the shelf to support your wife?
Tesla has the pieces for to make their robots amazing. They have AI, Dojo, batteries, etc. I believe Tesla management is willing to take risks and push in areas other do want to invest resources into, but if they get it done will truly bring humanoid robotics to a new level. What I believe many need to think about is how 95% of development can happen fast, but it is the last 5% that can be a huge challenge and might take years to get done. Boston Dynamics had robots doing stunts years ago and seem to be not a whole lot further along. Dave is 100% correct about having robots that learn like you would teach a human is huge. Corporations able to buy robots and not have to hire a dozen software engineers to make them function at their company or factory is a big plus. There is no doubt in my mind corporations are going to be the first clients and will likely have no issue with the high monthly subscription or lease prices. Maybe by 2030 we will see the first consumer robots versus robots for corporations and I mean the advance humanoid types that could be a housekeeper or elder care assistant. I would love it if Tesla showed off their next gen production line with the Tesla compact with any human positions on that factory line being staffed by Teslabots of somekind. Due to speed, I believe the first humanoid staffed vehicle production line cannot have a mix of humans and robots. The nice part is even if it is a slower line for some reason, the fact it could run 22 hours a day may make that line the lowest cost to produce vehicles.
I think the robot is going to be used in commercial applications first since the created value and pot. sales price is probably much higher than in a private assistant setting. Walking a dog is probably one of the much later use cases. One interesting usecase could be in fashion stores where workers put the tried ok clothes back on shelves. Its an always accuring problem.
Hi Dave, long time listener and follower of your channel for the TESLA coverage. All in on this stock since 2018. I live in metro Vancouver. Please let me know if you would like to meet up. All the best for your wife’s health.
Dave has a great point about a more easily achieved Optimus usability target than for FSB, but there's one fly in the ointment: Capability growth of Optimus and FSD software is strongly limited by inferential compute, and both projects (along with XAI) draw on the same pool of Tesla NVIDIA and Dojo chips. Tesla has targeted extreme growth in compute so that all three projects can move forward, but compute will still be limited, and FSD development will need dibs on capacity since it must be the first product ready. While billions of dollars can be made by moving Optimus faster, Millions of lives will be saved by making FSD ready sooner... and I don't think Tesla will hesitate to trade those billions to save a few millions.
great insight as always Dave....BUT... forget the tesla news for one second.. im just happy to hear the progress of your wife, the news that no cancer has spread, and the lifestyle changes.... thats all wonderful news, my friend... hugs to you and your family!
I've only recently come across your channel and am glad I did. I appreciate your outlook on things and have subscribed to make sure I hear more from you. Sorry to hear about your wife's cancer, but I'm glad to hear the positive news. Good luck and God bless.
