Why the electric car market is so hard to predict | DW Business

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Are electric vehicles on track to dominate the roads or is the industry entering the slow lane? A new report out by the International Energy Agency paints a rosy picture of the industry- predicting that one in five cars sold worldwide this year will be a battery or a hybrid vehicle. But the most recent quarterly figures tell a less optimistic story - with major manufacturers including Tesla and BYD posting weaker than expected sales. Against the backdrop of Auto China currently taking place in Beijing, DW Business speaks with Gregor Sebastian, Senior Analyst at Rhodium Group about the road ahead for EV makers.
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Опубликовано:

19 май 2024

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Комментарии : 328

@NorCalMoDo 23 дня назад

The old saying “if you can’t beat them, join them” is out. The new paradigm is “ if you can’t beat them, sanction them”.

@NorCalMoDo 23 дня назад

The sad reality is, EV are dominated by players like Tesla and the chinese makers. They are the new kids on the block. Should be ready to take beatings from the big boys.

@sbludba 22 дня назад

Boycott, sanctions, blockades, ostracize, Embargo.

@America_bombsTSMC 21 день назад

i copy your sentence

@vlhc4642 20 дней назад

And sanctions only work if you can beat them, so in the end it's just if you can't beat them, lose.

@bahamatodd 23 дня назад

Well your first mistake is showing an ICE Corvette in the video preview.

@jkselama4698 23 дня назад

Which will eat dust from an EV Corvette.

@legostud 22 дня назад

Are you sure that wasn’t the Hybrid “EV” corvette?

@teoengchin 23 дня назад

Is the writer of this segment bad at math or deliberately spreading misinformation? There is NO DECLINE in EV sales. More EVs were sold in Q1 2024 vs 2023. It is the growth that has declined, not the sales

@ev.c6 23 дня назад

Legacy car manufacturers have been lobbying different media segments to spread the idea that “EVs are dead”. Together with fossil fuel companies they want EVs to move as slow as possible. You can never compete with a product that is 90% more efficient than your old ICE, and can be charged at home. These guys are trying to delay the inevitable, and they will fail hard.

@bingosunnoon9341 23 дня назад

A RU-vid video stating the facts about EV sales does not generate the views as an video written by someone who has no experience with EVs and who is telling us about fabricated statistics that can't be proved one way or another.

@Jose-hs4vk 23 дня назад

China is full of parking lots of unsold EVs.

@st-ex8506 23 дня назад

@@Jose-hs4vk ... who are not counted as sales if what you say is true... as China counts registered vehicles as sales (which, according to some people living in China is not true... just more FUD... but I can obviously not confirm or infirm)... and not what is cranked out of a production line and sent to a dealer's lot, like in the USA. So, EV sales.... to the end consumer.. are still growing double-digit in China... and hitting 50% market hare!

@NorCalMoDo 23 дня назад

The media is serving the purpose to spread the rumor and move the consumer sentiment to buy time for some players to catch up.

@badtoro 23 дня назад

Depends what the media decides each week after week. Seems to change every week.

@rondg2 23 дня назад

the slowdown should usher in the era of practical EVs. i don't want these ridiculous cybertrucks

@ciybersal3499 23 дня назад

BYD shark and Geely radar are incoming sensible E- pickup trucks

@JoeyBlogs007 23 дня назад

No imported Chinese rubbish thanks

@Aapig 23 дня назад

If the economy slows down again, Europeans will start driving horse-drawn carriages

@juanspyro4658 23 дня назад

The very first cars were Cybertrucks in their own right, how do you not understand this? Adoption of new technology has to be taken by the ones spending the most

@teoengchin 23 дня назад

Actually the sales have not slowed, they are actually up vs 2024. It's the growth that has slowed

@russchamberlain8755 23 дня назад

Hybrid. Then to electric. Hybrid is the key to the transportation link.

@dlewis8405 23 дня назад

I love how Xaomi has their car coming out of a flourescent light tunnel just like in Tesla's Giga Berlin factory when their Model 3 started production there. Leave it to Chinese companies to copy each and every detail of a successful business :)

@sarcasmo57 22 дня назад

Cars are required for poor city designs.

@whatyousaid1375 23 дня назад

Few yrs ago when west dominate the market, they kept talking about green energy. Today when a new competitor enters the market, west starts to talk down EV, green energy & development, overcapacity, market maturing. 😂😂😂

@shark4sk 23 дня назад

What do you expect from west??

@Wagonrider89 23 дня назад

“West” develops technology and “East” steals it.

@NorCalMoDo 23 дня назад

Isn’t that normal? Business is war.

@NorCalMoDo 23 дня назад

German Green Party is in power, right?

@yoda1197 23 дня назад

You got it mate

@victorsvoice7978 23 дня назад

The cost of electric cars is the problem. If people could pay the same price as the Chinese pay. There would be a boom in the sales of evs. But, governments are slapping trade barriers to imports from China.

@EthanLomas 14 дней назад

Good to hear guests who actually know what they are talking about 👍

@vlhc4642 20 дней назад

Nothing hard to predict, hard to accept, hard to cope, hard to stop, but not hard to predict.

@HDcoconut 23 дня назад

I need a old reliable car that is EMP proof.

@wescoleman6390 23 дня назад

Come across many EMPs in your daily commute, do you? Man, those are annoying; they'll ruin your day like a flat tire. Depending on how EMI/RFI resistant you need to be, you're looking at either a carbureted gasoline engine or a diesel cycle engine with glow plugs. You could also run modern fuel injection or an EV powertrain and put your ECU, motor controllers, sensors, and related electronics in Faraday cages. Perhaps you could get a deal on a surplus military vehicle with such protection already installed, but better get it tested for radiated susceptibility per MIL-STD-461 just in case. As for me, I think in the event of an EMP the function of my car will be the least of my worries.

@HDcoconut 23 дня назад

I live on base, car in process. I said too much.

@teoengchin 22 дня назад

You need a horse. The oil refinery and the petrol station pump is not EMP proof

@takaotsu3592 23 дня назад

Yes. It’s going from point A to point B.

@MrArtist7777 23 дня назад

1 Quarter of lower sales, 1 QUARTER!!! ALL vehicle sales slowed last quarter, while overall, EV sales increased so let's not get panicked. EV's are the obvious future and will continue to grow until we hit 100%.

@MrBrewman95 23 дня назад

So why all these layoffs just after one bad month? They know the projections of where these are going and they know it won't be a big thing.

@supermash1 22 дня назад

Stop trying to ram your electric cars down my throat. I'll be happy to buy an efficient hybrid in the future, no desire to susbsidize the manufacture of electric cars.

@miraphycs7377 22 дня назад

So in Germany BEV sales in general are up. But hybrid and normal gas diesel vehicle sale also increased in the same period. So the overall marketshare of electric vehicle sold in german auto market is the same and no penetration was detected. Both in 2022 and 2023, EV sales was 18% of the market. That is, despite more EV models being introduced And specifically with regards to Tesla, their Model Y sales increases could not quite make up for significant decline in Model 3 sales. I assume even with the new Highland model this trend of declining Model 3 sale will continue (just look at Norway February sales figures) Same story with UK sales too. In the UK, registration of new electric cars increased by 18%, but they did not gain mkt share as non EVs increased more. EV remains only 17% of new car sales.

@davidrandall2742 23 дня назад

My Bolt euv has been flawless, and evs are getting exponentially better; 2024 might be a year of slower growth, but evs are still selling, even though the new car market as a whole isn't doing well.

@A3Kr0n 22 дня назад

I want an E.V. with the minimum electronics needed to run it.

@bingosunnoon9341 22 дня назад

No you don't. My first EV was a 67 Mustang I converted in 84. It had minimum electronics. The electronics are cheap and easy.

@stickleback73 23 дня назад

Sales in ICE vehicles are down, the rate of increase in sale of EVs has slowed but sales are still up! This is a reflection of the economy and pressures on spending. EVs are better hands down and will go on to improve. ICE vehicles aren't even 30% efficient after 100years of development where as evs have just begun!!!! Wake up nay sayers

@aryaman05 23 дня назад

Hybrids are even better, reason why its market share is going up and automakers making profit. Can you say the same for EV ?

@supermash1 22 дня назад

Electric cars are worthless after the battery expires. Short life span / high cost. Stop trying to ram your green ideology down my throat! I can't afford it!

@whatever77ism 22 дня назад

The governments are using too much carrot and too little stick in trying to get the transition done. And we are running out of time 🤬🤬🤬

@user-uf8og2bh4e 23 дня назад

regardless of slowdown.. Ev will continue to grow.. most ev car owners will order again for the next ev car. people need to try and see the difference of performance

@JoeyBlogs007 22 дня назад

10:17 However one also has to look EV sales it on a per capita basis to ascertain market penetration relative to ICE vehicles relative to population. China has a population of 1.4 billion, the EU around 450 million and the US around 333 million. On a per capita basis in terms of EV purchases in 2023, China had ( 1 in 274 persons ) purchasing an EV. The EU had1 in 225 people purchasing an EV and the US 1 in 277 people. US being a similar market penetration to China. Looking at the data this way suggests that the culture and appetite for EVs in 2023 in the USA was almost just as strong as in China. The EU per capita appetite for EVs was clearly the highest.

@bordersw1239 23 дня назад

The sales tactics were wrong - ‘create huge luxurious fast cars then the poorer people will eventually want the slightly cheaper ones’. If they built decent infrastructure and reliable small, cheap to run cars, people would buy them.

@legostud 22 дня назад

They tried that approach in the US and failed miserably. They weren’t cheap enough and only had 100 miles. The Bolt was an early EV with over 200 miles and it was still $40k after incentive. The Model 3 with more range, better options, and only slightly more expensive moped the floor with it.

@adamanthony7465 23 дня назад

Top conversation. Clarity in spades.

@JustTakeAMoment 22 дня назад

I've already bought my last car, I don't know how long I will be allowed to drive, the UK government change the rules way to often people like myself have had enough. Cars have a limited future as manufacturers run the risk of going bust, as their EVs fail to capture enough interest from the private sector.

@V4mpyrZ 18 дней назад

So the main obstacle are cost of vehicles and charging infrastructure. Luckily there is a 5-step plan for this: 1. Reduce government incentives 2. Plan electricity price increases 3. Plan a few chargers, but no major increase in electric power plants 4. ????? 5. Profit

@johnc007 23 дня назад

And what if China imposes 15% tax on all European cars? How would that effect the European car companies like VW? Also Chinese car companies could just assemble their cars in a country like Czech Republic and get around the 15% taxes.

@MacrosFTW 23 дня назад

Just go watch the Beijing and Shanghai Auto show for the future of EVs.

@brunoheggli2888 23 дня назад

I saw it,so what?Nothing special to see there!

@dax4812 23 дня назад

@@brunoheggli2888 replaceable batteries. You dont end up with a worthless car after the batteries deteriorate

@brunoheggli2888 23 дня назад

@@dax4812Ok thats a good thing,its from Nio right?Easy to upgrate in the future!

@dax4812 23 дня назад

@@brunoheggli2888 yes, and some others. Nio is pushing their system to become a standard.

@strigoiu13 23 дня назад

@@dax4812 chinese marketing does not convince anyone. we just buy it because it is cheap and we know it is in reality so and so. but drive a chinese car?! i would never trust my life and my family with a chinese car!

@stivans1556 22 дня назад

The constant stress and anxiety of charging, puts many buyers away from BEV. Unless technology advances sufficiently, EV market will saturate at a certain quote and no further.

@ioannisdimakis7460 23 дня назад

A medium size country like Germany has actually controlled the market due to their high quality IC E technology. But their profits came from the huge Chinese market and the cars were constructed in factories in China. EU can take any measures to block Chinese imports but the really important market is China.

@ricardocosson1105 23 дня назад

batery production and 'recycling', also electricity to charge your dumb car comes from somewhere

@ELXABER 23 дня назад

Look up consumerism and get back to that.

@bingosunnoon9341 23 дня назад

That is what's driving climate change for sure.

@clownworld3913 23 дня назад

It's actually very easy to predict - if the government forces people and adds a little bit of a financial incentive the electric car market does well. If the government doesn't force people or significantly reduces the bribe it does poorly. There you go, I'll take my seven figure consulting fee now.

@jesan733 22 дня назад

In Sweden we removed subsidies but EV sales remains high.

@vincecarlo 23 дня назад

HYBRID is the FUTURE

@relax-ie3mp 23 дня назад

Be realistic. How many battery swap cars are out on the road right now, in a year, and two years.

@tonychan6814 22 дня назад

Have you look at gas prices recently? Travelling the same distance electricity prices is much much cheaper. People now buys an EV for short distances travelling and a petrol and diesel for the odd times. What resonates people is the among to cost of living.

@nettiwelho91 23 дня назад

I don't think its hard to predict, the concept is flawed in many ways and the marketing department doesnt' tell you this

@edwarddonghi1471 18 дней назад

Eva’s are only good if you have you’re own driveway to charge them, otherwise they will need to be fast charged all the time at a charging point

@IrishBog 20 дней назад

He only needed to say that it’s not a problem but an opportunity- and he would win Bingo

@rok1475 23 дня назад

It is teSla, not teZla The company was named after Nikola Tesla born in Croatia.

@TheQuartzMatrix 22 дня назад

How Xiaomi SU7 is doing? Their brakes are burning out. Do your research before you buy!

@weigao9430 4 дня назад

-IP theft? -You are not leader 😂😂

@buixote 23 дня назад

Check the Electric Viking. He gives a clearer picture. The answer is not "hard to predict".

@3089280288 23 дня назад

No he doesnt!

@mas7833 23 дня назад

The electric viking comes across as an elon fan boy to me. 🤮

@gstlb 23 дня назад

Including hybrid cars in predicting future electric car ownership is a bit of a cheat, I think. I have a hybrid and to me it’s an enhanced ICE car. I love it but I wouldn’t claim that it’s an electric car. It’s fine to count that as long as you’re aware that it means some, maybe a lot, of that 20% have gasoline engines. Even today, more hybrids are sold in China than EVs.

@Mari_Selalu_Berbuat_Kebaikan 23 дня назад

Let's always do alot of good ❤️

@user-vj4sn1hk3n 22 дня назад

Nowhere since its costs outrun its benefits.

@cecilia_mackie 20 дней назад

Wow! Love it! Let’s stay in touch!

@roddiechan 17 дней назад

There is always something or someone to blame for their failure in the EV race

@bobsthea 21 день назад

BEV is underdeveloped tech and these manufacturer sold to us just to rake profit without any after sales service, so if your bateries pack is bust you must buy brand new one not only the bateries. Keep your ICE as long as you can until BEV industries can presenting fully developed BEV technology that won't give us range anxiety, blown or burned while park and batery pack 20 years waranty or much more

@tibsyy895 22 дня назад

Sand batteries, improve the grid, improve the infrastructure, new high capacity chargers all over Europe!

@nickchkheidze9189 23 дня назад

I can buy used 2013 corolla for $7k. I would buy used Tesla Model 3 for that price but the EV costs around $18K used... until decent used EVs are around 7-10k price I will have to choose gas vehicles. Also batteries need to last many charges... BYD and Tesla 25k cars can change this used EV market

@maestrovso 23 дня назад

Driving my Kubota tractor requires more skills and more engaging than driving an EV. EV is about as exciting but practical as my zero-turn mower.

@heavenlyReza 23 дня назад

They need to introduce less expensive evs

@PhongNguyen-nz9kz 23 дня назад

EV sales are off the charts

@antoinepageau8336 22 дня назад

There’s nothing about predicting EV sales that’s difficult. All cars will eventually be electric, it’s just better in every way.

@NorCalMoDo 23 дня назад

Honestly, is the European EV makers subsidized? I got subsidy from the US govnt when bought EV.

@jokeychin 22 дня назад

Just because you're blindfolded doesn't mean things won't happen. Being proactive is what ensures that you don't fall behind.

@manimalworks7424 23 дня назад

DW, charging stations are the key factor, if your “expert” has a single brain cell left.

@bingosunnoon9341 23 дня назад

How often have you charged at a charging station?

@manimalworks7424 23 дня назад

@@bingosunnoon9341 any time traveling more than 500 kms

@webdeuce День назад

Germany 🇩🇪 tell us about EV pls 😂

@PD55_ 23 дня назад

Because most people can't imagine a better world.

@johnz4860 22 дня назад

Didn't both governments and 'experts' tell us some eight years ago that MOST of us would be buying and driving electric cars by now? That MOST Cars on the road would be electric? If electric cars were meant to be the solution and they would substitute petrol and diesel cars, they have had a RESOUNDING FAILURE!

@michaeljiang960 22 дня назад

a failure in whatever country you are in, but not in china.

@rogerkant3696 17 дней назад

The growth of EV’s get conflated with autonomous driving. The EV problem is largely resolved and now technology will tune progress. Major leap would be a substantially better battery technology around range and charge rates. Autonomous driving still has a ways to go, technology, infrastructure and legislative/legal framework is a key issue. The key challenge is how to manage the mix of self driving and human drivers in the transition. Once self driving is ubiquitous the challenges go down and key benefits are unlocked, traffic lights, speed restrictions, following distance and many others become technology issues not legal road rules issues.

@JoseEspinoza-ij9lb 21 день назад

According to who is hard to predict? If you hear Tony Seba you'll know what's going to happen with the car electric market.

@Raptorman0909 23 дня назад

EV's are going to be 20% or more expensive than a comparable ICE vehicle so once your get beyond the tech types who tend to have money and similar classes of people with money the working class is more-or-less not able to afford an EV particularly if it is an additional vehicle. Owning a car is a requirement for most people and the working class may have one car per family or maybe two cars, but one at least needs to be ICE powered to do the thing they can do that EV's struggle at (off road, rural). It doesn't help the industry that the leading company in the field, Tesla, is being run by someone busy insulting his customers. But yeah, it's not Elon's problem it's the 40 member marketing teams fault.

@HenrikSvensson-is4mq 18 дней назад

Key for EV, is Battery, the range overall, range in the cold, Price when they can make a battery with long range and many charge cycles to a cheaper price then the EV will kick ICE cars

@supermash1 22 дня назад

Nowhere. Here in Canada their manufacture is being massively subsidized by the taxpayers. Because of that I will never touch one. Never had any desire to own an electric car, now I refuse to consider one. Note to car companies: stand on your own two feet!

@YesCivic-R 23 дня назад

EV revolution provided a solution but create a problem or more. Due to shortage of parts and skill EV labor, they are quite expensive to repair.

@mikafiltenborg7572 23 дня назад

Tesla model Y was the Best selling carmodel on planet Earth in year 2023 🏆🥇🎉✅

@hendrikbarboritsch7003 23 дня назад

Yes. DW does not like Tesla (VW probably paid them off) Also, I thought Teslas have great resell value.

@nevarran 23 дня назад

Because Tesla has basically 3 car models, two of which sell well. While pretty much every other car manufacturer has a dozen or more.

@Kennon959 22 дня назад

The Chinese way is to have the full spectrum of cars from economy to luxury but Tesla think 500hp is fine for people who can’t handle 100hp. A Nissan note with more range is by far enough for the majority but western brands are trying to push overpriced overpowered EV’s that most can’t buy so stick to ICE

@siyam333 23 дня назад

Huawei Harmonyspace ( car )

@ethimself5064 22 дня назад

I'll take a 64 Chevy anytime.

@user-cw9em3mo3w 23 дня назад

Tesla and Chinese automakers are going to DOMINATE in Europe! VW Is done! Deal with that legacy German auto!

@bingosunnoon9341 22 дня назад

If you replace a car worth five thousand dollars with a car worth fifty thousand dollars, the cost of your insurance will increase. That doesn't mean EVs cost more to insure. It is another part of the fear, uncertainty and doubt campaign the car and oil companies are waging against EVs.

@bhubestakesoponsatien1143 23 дня назад

Just BATTERY, how to make it cheaper and more reliable. SWAP Stations

@ssss8162 23 дня назад

Lots of good news about the imminent slowdown of EVs.

@SheepofTheShepherd-nu3lz 23 дня назад

straight to the dump

@wam7484 23 дня назад

Only DW can state that this years sales are well below last years sales, but the market is continuing to grow. I wonder if they know the definition of grow vs shrink.

@directxxxx71 23 дня назад

BYD and Tesla has sales below last year but no the whole EV market as a whole in China, the Chinese EV is actually growing fast that they just passed 51 percent of the whole car market including ICE

@wam7484 23 дня назад

@@directxxxx71 I don't know if China is representative of the global market in terms of EV interest. Those particular cars are dirt cheap and cannot be sold in the EU or US. They've made inroads to the EU market and we'll see how it goes. Zero DOT conformance cars for sale in the US. They won't be so cheap by the time they meet tough standards. I found it telling that the opening DW statement on electric acceptance included hybrids. No government is counting those towards EV goals. But hybrids and plug in hybrids would be a much easier sell in the range-anxiety climate of the US.

@binsun6903 22 дня назад

If EU really love green, please let Chinese vendors to solve it. Protection will delay the green process.

@tibsyy895 22 дня назад

Because of cybersecurity reasons, Europe needs European manufactured EVs with European developed software running on them, which servers are based in Europe! No third party risk! GDPR should be extended and EVs should be included into this!

@gzcwnk 4 часа назад

100% EVS the only Q is how fast,

@fern8580 23 дня назад

The Russians do not want Chinese electric cars because they cannot provide sufficient heating for passengers, the Gabonese do not want Chinese electric cars because they do not provide sufficient air conditioning to drive in Libreville etc. etc. yes for golf but for the rest...

@kevinlin4895 23 дня назад

Russians don't want ANY EVs because it's got a glut of gas, so EVs aren't as priced competitive there compared with the rest of the world

@jeffking4176 23 дня назад

The technology just isn’t there……… yet.

@panjacek6674 17 дней назад

Have you ever driven any EV?

@Clydeb_9994 23 дня назад

They're not the future, that's for sure! They're fun, especially the Teslas, but gasoline is still more reliable!

@cyberfunk3793 23 дня назад

I don't have an ev, but if you think they are not the future you are clueless. You can't even buy a ICE car in EU after 2035 if I remember correctly and the prices are coming down so fast that ICE cars will have a hard time competing in the future. Again, I still have a regular Honda Accord, but next car might be an ev if the price decline continues and I can get one with for example over 500km range in a few years cheaply.

@lours6993 23 дня назад

It is incoherent to speak of EV sales without speaking simultaneously about clean electricity generation: just take France with close to CO2 zero electricity (nuclear, hydro, wind) vs Germany with no nuclear and large amounts of coal fire! Driving an EV in Germany is not green.

@coldstorage6928 23 дня назад

If its North American , China and EU then maybe it might grow as for the rest of the southern part of the world ' i.e 3/4 of the world population evs are not even considered ' geographically '

@joem0088 15 дней назад

This DW anchor is ridiculous. Accusing China of IP thrieve ... when the problem is Germany's competitiveness.

@user-dl2ic6pp9t 23 дня назад

Until lots of things change electric cars will be seen mainly on Golf Coarse.

@StormyDog 23 дня назад

And on the highways , drag strips and race tracks.

@JD_-_ 23 дня назад

ICE car sales are not doing good either…

@amurika6336 23 дня назад

EV is the future, we just dont have the money for anything atm😂

@brunoheggli2888 23 дня назад

Wow,game over for Tesla!

@mikafiltenborg7572 23 дня назад

😂😂 Please Bruno: make easy money 💵: Short TSLA!!

@pixatiya 23 дня назад

Los Ev son los mejores 💪 🏎️⚡🏎️⚡🏎️⚡🏎️⚡🏎️⚡

@vincecarlo 23 дня назад

To The Scrapyard. Throw Away Toys. EXPENSIVE Repairs n POOR RELIABILITY

@tedchandran 22 дня назад

Jai Hind. Due to overcapacity, every EV companies are eyeing our elephantine Indian market.

@ilollipop100 23 дня назад

Hilarious... Second hand prices have cratered below ICE vehicles. Millions are upside down in their financing. Bought for $65000 Still owes $40000 Worth $20000. Who wants to buy an EV that loses value faster than it accelerates?

@AmvC 22 дня назад

"Cars" (automobiles) are going nowhere. It's been known for 50 years. The automobile's propulsion system doesn't make a meaningful difference. They mostly sit around uselessly on valuable property that could be used for all the things people really need. _A bowl is most useful when it's empty_ . Make space, give room, enjoy nature.