Will Increasing Interest Rates Crash the Australian Housing Market? 

The stock market is no different, to maintain profit, you need to have some in-depth knowledge on the market.

True, I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.

In my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 60s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.

@@williamDonaldson432 my partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you

I won't pretend to know everything, though. Her name is Annette Marie Holt but I won't say anything more. Most likely, you can find her basic information online; you are welcome to do further study.

Every one of us has made mistakes at some point

True. Together with the help of a financial planner, I was able to diversify my portfolio across several markets and produce a net profit of over one million dollars from high dividend yield bonds, ETFs, and stocks. It is essential that you have a variety of exposures, especially with businesses that are already profitable

Would you mind telling me about your financial planner?

Leah Foster Alderman

You are most likely to find more info when you look her up online

Definitely interesting times!🙃

Housing is political, the government will do everything in its power to keep the housing market popped up!

I agree that the property market will go up - but rates will stay the same until later this year when the RBA will cut. Interest rates are no longer effective at reducing inflation and the RBA wont do it to risk putting us in a recession. Jobs ads vs number of applications gap is getting bigger - which is a precursor to increased unemployment and the RBA are acutely aware of this.

@@InfinityIsland2203 Even with the changing of the portfolio ministers, there's no change to immigration. Over 1 million in the last 12 months. That's where our houses have gone to. The question that needs to be asked is: Are they skilled migrants that have come for jobs or are the "asylum seekers" and their rental properties are paid for by the tax payers. With the cost of living in Australia, most immigrants would leave and go back home because there's nothing in Australia to keep them here. Unless they're getting free money from the government. 1 million immigrants is the population of Adelaide. And I haven't seen a new capitol city pop up recently.

@@InfinityIsland2203 I read a story about a restaurant that was open for 299 days. They closed because they couldn't find a chef. 1 million immigrants into the country and not a single one of them is a chef? What type of workers are coming in?

Oh really? Tell me more!

This is what Ana Graciela Blackwelder does, she has changed my life.

After raising up to 60k trading with her, I bought a new house and car here in the US and also paid for my son’s (Oscar) surgery. Glory to God.shalom.

I know Ana Graciela Blackwelder, and I have also had success...

Absolutely! I have heard stories of people who started with little or no knowledge but managed to emerge victorious thanks to Ana Graciela Blackwelder.

Lol ok let's say it goes down to $1. You owe 800k on the house still to bank. You run into some issues and need to refinance the 800k u own against the 1k house. U get it right. House prices must keep its value or increase with inflation. Yes it going up crazy amounts doesn't make sense but it needs to go up.

It does matter. Because councils charge you rates based on what the market value of your property is. Council rates are out of control. They should be set on purchase price. There's no way a pensioner who bought their house in 1965 should be charged over $2,000 rates while doing nothing to the house.

Hahahaha! True, if your whiteboard’s predictions pan out, we’ll have to create a new position just for you: Chief Whiteboard Economist!

@MortgageBrokerAustralia What, has Carmen Lawrence finally retired. (That's a very niche joke 😃)

Generally you'll find a mix of corruption and stupidity as a causation. But I said the same thing, all the economists talking shit about soft landings etc Generally the rich and powerful need to move investments to safer assets classes prior to a crash/selloff

Explain how getting rid of negative gearing would help. Since it's not rocket science it should be easy. We've had negative gearing since 1936, BUT NOW it's the problem. Lol.

​@Hunty49 it's helping the investor with a investment not producing enough profit, do you see that in the stock market???

@@Hunty49Australia is the only country in the OECD with negative gearing

@@84pintz Yes. EVERY company can write off losses against taxable income. YOU can do that if you take a $10,000 loan and invest in the stock market, the interest on the loan is a tax deduction, losses are deductible. Make a profit, you pay income tax on it. Why would people be a landlord if there is no incentive to be one? Without investment properties you either buy a house or live with your parents until you can. There would be NO rentals.

@@84pintz without investors 1/3 of the population would be living in caves. unless the government buys all the properties off investors and rents them out to 1/3 of the population for half

Incredibly frustrating at the moment.

The minimum wage at $24.10 seems crazy to me. When the economy shrinks, all companies can do is go bust. They can't lower peoples wages to suit economic condition because the law says you have to pay them a minimum wage. More corrupt unions with bad economic policies.

You don't have a mortgage, thats why.

@@aron.gortman I have pre-approval, will buy a single bed within a few months. 10percent home loans will push away investors from hoarding all homes. Eventually they will invest in productive assets or investments. Investment in real estate will never help a country to grow their net productivity.

35% of Australians don't have a mortgage on their home, so interest rates don't affect them. 35% do have a mortgage for a private home. 30% of people rent, interest rates will hurt them as investors will just pass it on in higher rents.

@@Hunty49 It's easy for someone to be smug and matter of fact when larger interest rates have no effect upon their situation at all beyond potentially enabling them to buy a cheaper home down the line. Everyone's opinion is completely guided by how their personal situation would stand to gain or lose based on a rise or drop in rates.

@@aron.gortman Not being smug. They're just facts. How it makes you feel is irrelevant. I'm doing $2,500 a fortnight repayments. I'm losing weight because I only eat 1 meal a day. I buy a 3 pack of rump steak for $15 and have 1 a day. It's all I can afford. I'm back on instant coffee because I can't even afford pods any more. But this is what I have to do for my situation. It is what it is.

35% of Australians own their home outright. Interest rates don't affect them. They're the ones you see at all the coffee shops in the malls acting like everything isn't expensive. Inflation is caused by the banks and their money printer oversupplying the economy with money which devalues it.

@@Hunty49 yes i did say the same about those people not being effected, inflation is also caused by business raising prices as they see lots of people have the money to spend, just like those people who own homes also raise prices for rent because people will pay=inflation, its not just about printing money, wait until unemployment booms and we will see how the inflation will drop by magic even tho they printed allot

@@g-funk484 A lot of it is. If the currency is devalued, then it costs the farmer more for fuel, fertiliser, because we have to import those goods. Even fuel for transportation of the goods from the farm to the shop. So it costs more to create the product. Which then increases the price of the good. The fastest way for a country to decrease inflation, decrease the price of energy. Electricity, fuel, gas. If the price of diesel dropped to $1/litre, transport costs would be slashed. Electricity in WA is 31.5c/kW hour. China is 9.3c/kW hour. China has hydro and they built around 36 coal fired power plants in 2023. Cut the costs of manufacture and transport.

@@Hunty49 i understand mate i own a business also, dont forget how fuel dropped under $1 when covid hit yet money was being printed and devalued at the same time, that should show you prices can be lowered, its all supply and demand, if people need your farm products like milk,fruit and veg or anything again it can all be purchased direct from farms with no mark up from coles or woolworths, everything we purchase has a middle man, people can chose less profit and sell more but they wont because demand is high so they over charge and collect profits just like housing now and rentals, do you think 700k for a crap house is realistic because they print money or is it because the demand, printing money is not as bad as charging interest which does not exist in the system thats how they create money but there is never enough for everyone to pay of there loans at one time, wait until employment sky rockets we will see the true value for all products because no one will be buying

Very interesting insight! We have definitely seen an increase in parents helping their kids buy houses.

Yeah sometimes we have to make the tough decisions. But well done on paying off your home!

@@wapphigh5250 not quite the case mate, unfortunately inflation is still way too high, which means theres still some people spending like drunken sailors, the issue is interest rates are only affect a third of the population. As for a recession we are in a deep per capita recession, where the workers are getting smashed whilst nig corporates keep making big profits, hence the markets up near all time highs. Would of been better having a technical recession earlier and taken the yucky medicine.

It needs to go up mate

Yeah, its a very tricky situation!

its definitely a rollercoaster ride, isn’t it?! Especially with the construction industry in shambles right now. Crazy times!

😅 definitely!

Yep, its a tough balancing act!

I had a proposal once. Remove interest rates as the way to control inflation as it only affects mortgage holders (35% private homes, 30% investment properties). But employment is at 95.9% of the population. So make the superannuation rate what controls inflation. Inflation too high, 20% supper contribution. Economy struggling, 7% super contribution. Remove the super employer contribution cap and make super salary sacrifice a max of $15,000. Then mortgages will be fought between the banks at around 2%-3% when they finish colluding. Mortgage repayments to the banks, principal disappears as it was created in existence by the banks, but the interest is pure profit. So instead of all you money going to the banks profit, it's still your money, it's just locked away until your retirement earning returns. The only downside would be if Labor get's their $3 million dollar super tax in.

Ya, the RBA needs to tread carefully. Trying to manage inflation without causing a housing market crash is a delicate balance. Let’s see if they will manage it!

@@MortgageBrokerAustralia My mate purchased his third home last month. He has bought 3 over 3 years. 1st doubled from 280k, he leveraged that to buy a second. 2nd home went up 50%, and bought another. He has $1m debt. His real investment was 280k. The value of the homes are ~$1m. Rental hikes helped cover the gearing on interest. Debt creation creates wealth...but for who. Inflation debt destruction only occurs for those with debt in the long run is my observation, and at the cost of those who cannot afford to take it.

It's based on something. Fractional Reserve. During Covid they dropped interest rates to 0.2% making borrowing money cheap. So the banks printed money and lent it out earning huge profits. All that free money cooked the economy and devalued the currency. Every dollar paid back on principal disappears from the nothing it came from and the interest is pure profit for banks. Supply and Demand. Once enough money has been removed from the economy, it gains value again.

That is what most people are hoping! Best case scenario, they go down or at least hold steady. We'll see...

The RBA will pause because Labor put the governor in and it's almost election time at the end of the year. A rate rise will kill Labor at the election as it proves they can't run an economy, like every year they're in charge.

Thanks for your comment! True, a cautious approach is essential during these uncertain times. Pausing rates can indeed be a good move to prevent further strain on the economy.

@@MortgageBrokerAustralia Inflation is still above 3% (3.8% July 2024). We've had the interest rates at 4.35% since Dec 2023 and hasn't impacted inflation. They need to go to 4.5%. Doing nothing will make it worse.

Thanks for watching

Hahah literally the best Lego set ever.