Will Keir Starmer serve a full term as Prime Minister? | Election 2024 | The New Statesman 

Frankly, the country needs a breather. A stable prime minister for 5 years.

These 'What If?' questions are fun but totally useless as a guide to the future of the next government. There are far too many unknown variables that could come into play. Furthermore, it will take a long, long time to forget the horrors of the last 14 years.

Where has narrative come from?.. the guys not even measured his curtains yet and they are booting him out of the door... this question has been raised on several channels - maybe they are running out of things to debate... Lets give him 2 years then revisit the question.

What are u talking about? This is one of the dumbest new statesmen videos ever… not even voted yet!

He’s still leader of the opposition and people are talking about his downfall. So bizarre.

He will enter office with a huge parliamentary majority, very strong unity from his MPs and an appalling record from the tories against which to benchmark his success. He should have at least 1 year to enact whatever changes he wants, within the bounds of the law, before any credible political force can assemble against him. That's the stadard 6 months honeymoon and 6 months riding on all the aforementioned advantages. That means he will have the clout immediately start implementing significant changes. Actually funding the NHS, actually funding schools, processing asylum claims again, providing real support to Ukraine, closing tax loopholes, taxing the rich, and so on. All outright popular actions, or actions that produce popular results by alleviating crises. If he is successful in that first year then he will retain support for his government in subsequent years. So essentially, it comes down to the ambition and merit of his plans. If his plans are sound, I see no reason why he should no retain his party and the country's support.

Keir Starmer adopting the Tory framework is a huge mistake. The Tory framework is based on Margaret Thatchers Neoliberalism which has brought about the demise of the Tory party. Labour canvased time for a change adopting Neoliberalism is more of the same not change.

First question is super dumb

Just because a viewer asks a question, doesn't mean you have to humour them by debating it.

why wouldn’t he

I’m 60 and I can’t remember such an unpredictable period in British politics ( and come to that the USA too). My great fear is that the sand castle theory is correct and that we are looking at a severe swing to the far right within 10 years. I guess I consider myself to be left wing if anything, but whoever’s in power needs to ‘do’ something about immigration as it has become the main issue for many, (rightly or wrongly)or risk the virus of hate becoming more widespread. I personally feel that immigration needs to be ‘fair’ on everyone.

How can people ask such stupid questions. And how can you broadcast it?

What a rediculously stupid question

What's the counter argument to the sandcastle theory? I might say something like this: Yes we are seeing a sudden and unexpectedly big change in how voters are behaving in this election, usually parties with large majorities are guaranteed at least a couple of terms (Thatcher, Blair). But the 2019 election was exceptionally unusual. The Tories had been the largest party in parliament after 2010 and 2017, but not won majorities. Even in 2010 it had failed to win as much as 37% of the vote. It wasn't popular. 2019 was won on the back of *years* of parliamentary bickering, an electorate that just wanted the Brexit shambles to *end*, two extremely unpopular leaders, a split anti-Brexit vote (though anti-Brexit parties won more votes than pro Brexit Parties in 2019, if one counts Labour as anti-Brexit), and the Brexit Party standing its candidates down in Tory held constituencies, allowing it to split away Labour votes in Labour constituencies, but the Tories to benefit from Brexit Party support. I am not convinced the Tories were *ever* that popular throughout their 2010-24 period in government. Under normal circumstances, eg if the UK had voted to remain in the EU and Miliband had remained as Labour leader, I imagine that 2015 might well have been their high-point. Hell 2015 might well have been their high point even if Corbyn had become Labour leader anyway, in the absence of Brexit. The Conservatives never enjoyed the good will in 2019 that an incoming party will, there was no sense of relief of a change of government, only a sense of relief that Brexit was "done", and Brexit itself was blamed on the Tories. There will be the sense of relief for getting rid of the Tories that Blair enjoyed (and indeed Cameron did for a while, though not by such a large margin). I think this sort of good will lasts for more than one term. Anyway a bit rambly I know, but I do think one can argue that the sandcastle of 2019-24 is not necessarily a sea change in how swing voters vote, so much as a reaction to a very specific set of circumstances. We won't really know until 2029 though, I suppose.

The big question is how fickle the vote for Labour will be this Thursday. Many people are voting against the Tories rather than for Labour. If the general public does not experience an improvement in their standard of living, Labour will have difficulty in the following election. This failure to change the Economy will put pressure on the party.

Jesus, he's not even won power yet.

Labour are projected to have a majority well over 100, it would take a monumental split in the party to force Starmer out. I dont think theres any real chance of this happening

Starmer needs to remember how the large majority of Johnson dissipated so quickly and that was with the media on the Tory side.

Will he ? Yes but not only that: you will probably see him also become one of Britain´s greatest post-War Prime Ministers, certainly one of their most honourable.

New Statesman short of subject matter today? What a stupid topic to discuss before the election has even taken place.

VOTE BINFACE FOR CHANGE!!! If by some weird alignment of the stars Binface did get elected, could he actually take a seat in the Commons?

Labour will not easily find a better PM than Keir. Cameeon was always a thin corrupt talent going to the far right so bringing the other dire Tory PM's and Tory Party in. The next period is the most difficult as the Tories have poisoned the well. Deliberately.

Yes Sir will serve 5 Years as Prime Minister

The Labour Party is more disciplined that the Tories. The parliamentary party will not throw it away by making it hard for Keir Starmer. Tony Blair won two elections with huge majorities. There is no reason that Keir Starmer cannot do the same.

Give him a chance he's not PM yet that's on Friday.

New Statesman should do a better job at filtering some of these questions 🤦‍♀️

Johnson's majority in 2019 was a sandcastle too: he only got 25% of the total vote share despite having a large number of seats

Would Tom Tugendhat serve a full term as Tory leader, or would he be forced out by the right wing press for having a European sounding name?

The problem with such a long run up to the election means the media need more and more inane subjects to chat about amongst themselves. Hence this totally ridiculous non debate😅

I think Starmer is a poor leader. He doesn´t listen to people who disagree with him, for all that may be criticised about Blair and Brown (and there is a lot), that wasn´t one of their faults, they did have people like Clare Short in their first cabinet as well as people like Frank Dobson. Starmer doesn´t deal well with disagreement or challenges. I have seen him confronted by party members angry with his stances and his purges of the leadership and he just sat there with an expression "how can people possibly challenge me". Again, I am no fan of Tony Blair, but Blair or Brown would have said "why don´t you come and talk to me about this later", or said "I understand your point of view, but I think this will be more popular with the country". Starmer just stared. It´s a great shame Andy Burnham isn´t standing for parliament. I think he is electable, he would also do a good job of listening to people he doesn´t necessarily agree with and it would be a Labour party closer to its roots.

Was he ever meant to serve a full term or his he selling us down the river. Seriously, keep KHAN STARMER OUT.

The Chattering Classes talking about 2029 election, before this one is over.

Erm... Yeah... Probably two.

Have you seriously got nothing better to report on? Just a suggestion: how about we get these Tories gone and THEN see about the incoming government? Just a thought.

I need to finally say this - Freddie is so handsome and might be the only reason I watch these videos.

Brexit is the elephant in the room? Unless Keir Starmer can do some sort of closer relationship with Europe he’s toast!

What a useful term sandcastle majority is. It can be well used in description of the majority the Tory’s enjoyed in the last election. I have always suspected that success was more to do with ‘get Brexit done’ than it was to do with a nationwide adoption of broader conservative principles. Neither was it entirely about Jeremy Corbyn. Without Brexit, it would have been interesting to see a Johnson Corbyn election.

"Boo". says Sunak. "Labour will destroy Britain forever in 100 days". The Tories already broke it in 14 years with austerity that cut the economy, real wages and public services to desperation. They rushed and bungled a hard brexit to avoid one day of EU scrutiny and money transparency laws to apply to the UK and caused a permanent loss of 4%-5.5% of GDP including £40-£50bn in lost tax revenue p.a., according to 4 studies, including by the government. They mishandled Covid with late lockdowns and letting in an extra week of flights from India with a worse new variant, a total lack of preparation, treating PCP supplies as an opportunity to give hundreds of millions to their mates and putting patients with the disease into care homes with no protection ( 225,000 dead ). The cuts would deepen if they return and people on benefits, many of them working or sick ( 8 million and rising on NHS waiting lists) are already in debt and unable to pay bills and feed themselves. Food banks and pot holes alike, expanding and at record levels.

Unless he’s ill or becomes incredibly unpopular, why would he never serve a full term? I could see him serve two terms.

Freddy Hayward makes a great point. I don't see how Starmer can stimulate economic growth without increasing public spending and at least some axes that will bring in significant revenue. Maybe a better trade deal with Europe could help, but that could take years to negotiate, and it won't give as good access to the EU market as membership did.

Tories out and Tories in . Blue rinse Labour .

L is for Labour L is for Lice

People have become so warped by the Tories they’re acting as though PMs being removed from power is a normal thing. It isn’t.

I’m not trying to make a prediction about what happens at all - but I do say that the risk of things going wrong means that getting rid of FPTP should be a priority. With what’s going on with the right our system looks incredibly vulnerable if Labour become unpopular - and they will, eventually. Be it 5,10 or 15 years. Populism isn’t going away. Progressive parties need to mitigate the effects.

Freddie says Labour won’t be able to adopt the “radical policies the country requires” Let me rephrase that: “Labour haven’t adopted the radical policies which Freddie thinks the country requires and the public voted against in 2017 and 2019” Labour are only ahead in the polls because they’ve promised to maintain tight fiscal policy…..once they have won they can ditch it.

As I'll be tuning in from Aotearoa/New Zealand, I wake up on Friday morning and the polls will just have closed in the UK. I have taken the whole of Friday off to enjoy the coverage.

is that when the election results are coming out next week Friday?

I want a boring but stable Prime Minister for the next five years, and this is why Keir Starmer should be the next Prime Minister. We have had 14 years of utter chaos under five conservative Prime Ministers. Time for boring to reign.

Corbyn in the thumbnail for some reason? Good god the media are terrified at the idea of anyone wanting a fair society getting anywhere near power again 😂😂

3:11 'Not like Australia...' The current Australian government is pretty stable but i see your point. The Labor Party changed its processes so that MPs would be reigned in from panicking and changing the leader. Even though we are not a presidential system like the United States, most people still live under the illusion that we vote for Prime Ministers and when they change it's usually a very unpopular move. The experience of the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd government from 2007 to 2013 was followed by the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison show which ended two years ago. Even if Labor wanted to oust the leader, Anthony Albanese, it can't do it without putting it to the membership, rather than just brawling in the party room. The conservatives in Australia have not yet adopted such a party policy.

Wait a second! How many Tory PMs serve a full term?! NOT Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, or Sunak! The last five!!!!!

Bit rich considering the tories had 5 prime ministers.

I look forward to no prime minister fulfilling one single term in office. Vote 'emm in - Vote 'emm out!

I have a minor theory which I haven't heard expressed yet (but I'm following from Australia and we, in the Colonies, still rely on the bush telegraph, you see) but which I came up with. Sunak had a very small window of opportunity. Polls show that Labour's margin was slowly shrinking nd Reform's popularity was rising to the point where they are now too close to the Tories for comfort. If Sunak wanted the Tories to remain the major opposition party, he had to move fast. At the same time he needed to save the furniture.

Lots of people seem outraged that this is even being asked, but why? He's going to be prime minister in less than a week, and no, no one serious beleives that the polls will be so wrong the Tories will actually win, it makes sense to pay attention to what may occur with the next government, and how he has behaved in opposition, and trends from previous governments, are valid indicators of that

The best thing about Keir is he is one of a very determined group of loyal colleagues.

This was an excellent discussion on scenarios. It is more likely that Keir Starmer and David Lamy receive strong push back against foreign office actions like Gaza, EU trade, or a war involving NATO. I can see Mr. Lamy being a short term Foreign Secretary. It is also possible that Labour MPs put pressure on the Chancellor over specific fiscal policies.

Forget that,. The big question is: where does that Freddie boy live?. I want to buy that house. Oh, and you;re obviously paying him too much.

If he lasts till 2025 he will have done well

Will Faridge ever turn up for work this time? Is a more common interesting question Last job he had included 361 days holiday PA - alright for some.

I don’t think Keir Starmer will be there for one term. My money is on him serving at least two.

"Radical solutions" wouldn't get Labour elected (see: Jeremy Corbyn). Furthermore, radical solutions freak markets out = worsening economic situation. Labour is in a very tough spot. However, 5 years is a hell of a long time. It will (hopefully) have a mandate that will carry it through. If there is economic pick up and no new destabalisers over that period, Labour should be able to tell the electorate that it can push harder for reforms and public spending in 5 years time. Labour simply does not have either the historical or demographical landscape to act as it wishes - far less so than the right wing. Perhaps this will change, but it only changes if the first stages of transition in this country are small and careful. Walking before running, if you will. I do think this essentially liberal country with more nationalist margins does have the time and space needed for a centrist-left party to succeed. But none of this happens overnight. It's almost the same debate as Rejoin. We might want it tomorrow. In reality, it is a long term and tragically slow process.

It will never be as shambolic as the Tories.

Got an awful feeling that Labour will do a Tory and Starmer will hand over leadership after maybe a year , we could have 2/3 unelected PMs again.

Really? Give him a chance. We have not even had the election yet.

It will be a LONG time before we see the Conservatives in power again (If ever)

Starmer won't do anything about the economic inequality that is driving down living conditions for so many of us. I'd be surprised he lasts more than one election.

He should serve twenty years!

It's a veneer of unity.

What makes a great leader? Events, dear boy, events Starmer is lucky in a way, all the things he has to fix are not his parties doing, so there is no internal, back bench politics to deal with

The sooner Starmer is out the better

What's the point of Corbyn in the thumbnail? he ain't coming back that's for sure.

London Mayor Khan will run in first vacant Labour MP seat election then will take over as PM in less than 18 months😮

Should have had John Bercow as Leader. He'd put things in Orrrrderrrr!!!

Vote tactically to get rid of the Tories

Have you nothing better to discuss than this?

If Andrew Feinstein wins his seat he won’t be PM 🤞

He won’t last 6 months. He has no real answer to how he is going to achieve what’s in his manifesto. None of it adds up and in parliament he will be pulled to shreds. Welcome the Reform Party…. Who will be forming the next government. ❤Reform.

Of course he will and he'll successfully campaign to win the next one too

Can we just wait and see before making ridiculous speculation about Starmer’s future?

What about Faiza and Diane Abbott?

Liebour out Reform in

I give Starmer and Labour a year or sooner as civil unrest is imminent.

He will be there for two terms or more

Lammy or Khan to supplant him within 3 years

If, but, maybe.

Yes.

Unless he has health problems, why wouldn't he? Also WHY does the thumbnail have Corbyn's picture on it. Starmer literally kicked him out of Labour and he's not coming back. Even if Starmer does step down at some point, Corbyn isn't going to replace him.

JC for PM 🙏 Starmer is not what the country needs, we need a PM who cares about people and communities and not hyper focused on restricting money to NHS, the disabled, unemployed, and fraudulently giving mates large contracts.

Maybe win first ????

What on earth are these baby journalists talking about. They are already discussing Starmer's downfall before he's even been elected. It shows that even so called "progressive" journalists at the New Statesman are only concerned about clicks. Terrible. I'm unsubscribing. This channel is full of padding not analysis.

Reform Reform Reform

Who is this kid with the glasses? The pseudo intellectualism on show these days is unreal 😂

Vote Reform !

We could have the situation that Starmer has a huge majority with less votes than Corbyn in 2017.

No he won’t be there by Christmas

No certainly not ,how about 6 moths max

Labour will win with a clear majority so will serve the full term because the labour MPs want easy money for the 5 years. Keir Starmer will probably also last the 5 years as the Prime Minister on the basis that there is no replacement for him is there?

Dont want starmer from the start!

Hopefully not! Sir Turncoat.. .