Technically, you can go Scuttle Puddle (for extra gold), get a high gold start, then go Cruel Pact to hit 7 on 2-2. Then it's technically possible to get the same 1% 5 cost 9 times on the next two shops. The odds of this happening are roughly 1 in 583,847,116,800,000,000,000,000 games (extremely roughly, but that gives you an idea of the scale of the number). So yeah, this is probably the only feasibly repeatable method of getting a 3 star 5 cost by 3-2.
Just for a little demonstration of the likelihood: There is a 6% chance of getting a prismatic into a silver augment, which is the specific combo needed here. Then, we have 6/84 (roughly 7%) of getting cruel pact, which is the necessary augment without alternatives. Then you have the luck needed to somehow get 4 2 star 4 costs, costing 48 gold in total just for price. The chance for recombobulator in 3-2 is roughly 6/60. Lastly, each 2 star 4 cost has a 10% chance of leveling into any given 5 cost. The first of the 4 doesnt actually matter, unless we check for senna alone, but lets just say any 3 star 5 cost. 4 cost 1 turns into 5-cost A. 90% then that 4cost2 turns into a different one, 5cost B. Then theres a 2/100 chance that 4cost 3/4 roll into one of those 2. Alternatively, 4cost 2 also turns to 5cost A, 10%, and now theres a 19% chance that one or both of the other two land on the same. That means the last step has a (0.1 times 0.19)+(0.9 times 0.02)=0.019+0.018=0.037=3.7% chance of happening. If we add this together we get 0.06 times 0.0714 times 0.1 times 0.037. This all equals to a ridiculous 0.0015857% chance of this happening, even if we assume we get the 4 necessary 2 star 4 costs. That means this is a 1/63063 game. Youd have to play 63 thousand games to get this, on average. Slight buffs from picking academy and possibly slightly off augment chances, but still.
"slight buffs from picking academy" actually like absurd buffs. .like the prismatic was guaranteed.. like thats actually a huge buff ur calculations are entirely wasted here LMAO
Lol 2 one cost 3 star is already 18 gold. 9 4 cost is 36 gold. To do this you have to get all of them naturally and you would have really low chance of hitting 1 cost 3 star. Not to mention buying champions make hitting those econ break points harder. This will practically never happen before the universe collapse unless they change the system even if you have 8 billions players playing 24 games a day.
@@user-ye2vn4dh8hedge of night so he doesn’t get 1 shot and ksante can just kick a unit off the board if it’s on the edge, which kills the units instantly
@@user-ye2vn4dh8hThat is how edge of night works. The attack that procs it’s effect gets completely neutralized and the damage gets stopped at the hp threshold.
A lot of people saying this is super unlikely, but not nearly as unlikely as you would think. Here's a copy and paste from a reply I did: How do you figure? It's 1/64 to get any 3 star 5 cost given that you have 3 2 star 4 costs before recombobulator. 1/512 to get a specific 3 star 5 cost. Thats not even taking into account the possibility that getting the same champion has increased odds. Also not taking into account its probably not possible to get ryze as a output from recombobulator. EDIT: I just noticed he had FOUR 2 star 4 costs, this raises the chances of getting a random 3 star 5 cost to about ~4.5%. (Again assuming that ryze is a possible output)
I got a similar number, curious to know where our maths differ though. I agree with the 1/64 number for the 3x 2-star 4 cost analysis, but calculating when you have 4x 2-star 4 cost units is a bit more confusing. Working off the assumption that 1) there are 8 legendaries and 2) the author didn't care which legendary he got the 3* of We can break this down into two scenarios: 1) the first 2 of 4 legendaries are different (7/8 chance) and 2) the first 2 of 4 legendaries are the same (1/8 chance) In case 1, we know that we need the next two legendaries to be the same as one of the first two, which we can calculate to be (2/8)*(1/8)=1/32. In the second case we need one of the last two legendaries to be the legendary we already have two of. We can calculate this chance as 1-(7/8)^2=15/64. Now we can add multiply and add these conditional probabilities: (7/8)*(1/32)+(1/8)*(15/64)=(7/256)+(15/512)=29/512=0.056640625. TLDR: If you have 4x 2-star four cost units, you have a ~5.7 percent chance of getting a 3 star 4 cost when obtaining the recombobulator
@@No-One.321 I played 6 tft matches this week, just take Kench legend and try to force piltover, I was able to play legendary lasagna lvl9 for all of 6 games, in 3 of them had 1 or more 3* legendaries
@@No-One.321you have better odds of getting high tier champion when you have cruel pack, since you are the only one that can get those 4costs in the lobby, you have better odds of finding them
and yet riot thinks think fast an augment actually gated by skill needed to go but not cruel pact :))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
@@pimmetos You can prelevel right after winning, you don't have to commit before the fight, there's no reason. Imagine he randomly lost, wouldn't have been able to pull this highroll off
How do you figure? It's 1/64 to get any 3 star 5 cost given that you have 3 2 star 4 costs before recombobulator. 1/512 to get a specific 3 star 5 cost. Thats not even taking into account the possibility that getting the same champion has increased odds. Also not taking into account its probably not possible to get ryze as a output from recombobulator. EDIT: I just noticed he had FOUR 2 star 4 costs, this raises the chances of getting a random 3 star 5 cost to about ~4.5%. (Again assuming that ryze is a possible output)
1 in 10 first aug pris matic 6 in 90= 1 in 15 in cruel pact, Theo 1 in 3 Silver aug 1 in 20 for recomb so its: = 1000x 10x15x3x20= 9.000.000 so its 1 in 9.000.000 Games :D just lucky
yeah shawn u gotta stop with these, the poor opponents going into a game and 5 minutes later they can just ff go next, absolutely mental u are, check him pc
nah its not as bad as a lottery. there are like 10 legendaries, so getting the same one for 3 upgrades is about 1 in 1000. considering how many games he is probably playing it is still really lucky (he needs the augments too) , but realistic
@@abcdefgh5808yes 1 in 1000 but as u mention you have to consider the augments: 1 in 10 first aug pris matic 6 in 90= 1 in 15 in cruel pact, Theo 1 in 3 Silver aug 1 in 20 for recomb so its: = 1000x 10x15x3x20= 9.000.000 so its 1 in 9.000.000 Games :D just lucky
@@abcdefgh5808correct me if I'm wrong but there are 8 legendaries, which makes 8 options for each of the 4 costs to rank up to, which makes the total scenarios could happen 8^4, he has 4 2 stars 4 costs champs. So to Not have a 3 stars legendary, the choices of each of the 4 costs would be 8-8-7-7 respectively, which made up ~76.5%. So a 23.5% chance for a 3 stars legendary, not so low as 1 every 1000. ( this is of course with the same augments and set up, which is the hard part, and the assumption that every upgrades are independent of each other as in the number of 1 legendary could exceed 10 that are initially in the pool )
@@laikhoabang that depends on how the coding works and if transforming happens all at once, or if it’s done one at a time. if it’s one a time then we would need to account for the champion pool decreasing, which would also depend on which champions are transformed first. like for instance, there are only 8 legendaries with each having a pool size of 10. let’s say you have 4 2* tier 4 champions. first one gets rolled and it’s NOT a senna (70/80). the next would be be a senna (10/77). the next would also be a senna (7/74). then one more time (4/71). this is also assuming that it looks at the whole population of legendary champs (which i think makes sense if it does). i can’t say for certain though because there’s a lot of assumptions but that specific scenario comes out to about .06%. however, you would need to find the probability of each scenario to get a 3 star senna, and since these are mutually exclusive we can add those up. my guess is it’s around .18%, so yes about 1/1000
