Yale's Stephen Roach Says "Hong Kong Is Over" 

I lived in Hong Kong all my life. He's right. The city is over.

lived there 23 years, now in philippines , hong kong is now so sad and totally lost it's appeal . in central or Tsim sha Tsui , very quiet , no tourists ,shops closed awful

Just play at 1.5x speed.

I have a friend from HK who sided with PRC during the mass demonstration and thought positively of them. Last year he migrated with his family to US and I never saw him so relaxed and cheerful. It is not so much about the situation he has in US now, but rather the situation he had in HK. Yet another friend from India still living in HK said that things do not change in terms of daily life and doing business, but you gotta really watch what you said and avoid anything that can be construed as criticizing the PRC. My guess is HK will lose its dominance as a business hub to Singapore, but it will still survive as a city. Their people are too resilient and hardworking to let it die, but they will have to adjust to the "new normal" as PRC's influence will not go away anytime soon.

It would be safer to invest in Singapore. After the HK crackdown, people do not see HK the same way again.

About time to declare it. For those who follow politics, HK was done already during the Umbrella Movement, against the 23th Law.

International investors & banks are no longer making phone calls regarding Hong Kong and China. They have fallen silent, shy away, and refraining from communication altogether.🙅‍♂

I was also in HK for the Hand Over! Things are different now. Last week I had a Hong Kong friend of mine come here to Manila with her family to check out the international schools. The reason she gave was because the school curricula there in HK had taken a sudden shift toward Mainland content/propaganda. She no longer felt it was a good place for her kids to learn. Sad, because the Hong Kong that I have known for nearly three decades was always such a vibrant place.

So true, despite many coping hard in denial. Slowly but surely

As a HK resident, I’m sad to say that I think he’s right, but hope he’s wrong. ☹️ MNC Firms pretend that HK is sustainable and wonderful- as they quietly move substantial numbers of key positions to Singapore etc. smoke and mirrors to maintain face. It’s a joke 🤦‍♂️. Even PRC major companies prefer locating regional offices in Singapore, and individual PRC investors prefer SG vs HK. 🤷‍♂️.

Goodbye Hong Kong it was great to know you for all the wonderful films and music you gave us throughout the years. You gave us great restaurants great scenery great imagery of a vibrant place. You will be missed and it is because of those who do not take action that you are gone. We hope to restore you to where you were and your people will still have the Liberty to express what was able to be said way back then.

Hong Kong 🇭🇰 as a financial center is finished after the National Security laws were introduced. - Businesses have left. Empty office buildings are all over the former British colony.

Absolutely 👍 great interview

It's ok, Chinese govt wanted Hong Kong to be diminished anyways.

HK was done the day the communists took over, which is why so many smart Chinese left when they could. The last takedown was a real shock to the ones who stayed, and of course the absence of any kind of democracy spells more trouble ahead. People are staying out of tradition, in a wishful-thinking sort of way. I feel like Gandalf, standing on stone bridge, telling people to RUN! Hong Kong's main purpose now is helping the comrades get their money out of mainland.

Codependency? How about national security? Where is that in the discussion? It's not just a discussion around economics.

We were there for umbrella ☔ protests. When legislators were dismissed and HK arrests, we refused to go back.

Well, we can't go back to the old HK. But it doesn't mean HK cannot be successful. It just means HK needs to change and adapt. Will wait to see how HK will be in a couple of years.

I was with AP news and we filmed the handover.

His Yale lectures must be brutal

Hong Kong will come back when Jimmy Lai is released and Apple Daily is reopened. Until then, it’s Xi the Pooh’s Rule of Man, not the Rule of Law.

Prof Roach, glad ypu still love HK. All things change.

It's still a major financial center. Time will tell how things pan out.

You don't have to be a Yale economic scholar to know HK fell after the Lehman Bros collapse, and Chinese financiers moved to Shanghai along with their money. The civil unrest started a couple years after 2008.

Never write off HK, the people and the place are both always resilient. They will muddle through Xi’s awful tenure, and they may suffer a bit of damage, but HK will still be there when Xi is gone and thrive again.

Even Taylor Swift and Ed Sheeran would prefer to go to Singapore 😂

When he says "One economy starts to go it's own way" it is not that simple as both USA and China have desires that allow for a fair change that benefits both sides. When the USA decides that it needs manufacturing security, that inflation is too low, that income inequality is too high and workforce participation is too low so decides to increase domestic manufacturing that has a counter-action which is that China becomes less dependent on exports to the USA which China also desires. We have a mutual balance here that can be co-ordinated in an orderly way. I am not sure what goes on behind closed doors, but the path to a mutual reduction in trade is not that far fetched even after 2022 which was a record year of all time for US Imports from China and now impacted by higher interest rates. The USA local manufacturing is also suffering and so is Germany as well and Japan too. We have a global rise of interest rates at play. The real question however remains, will the USA be able to produce household goods locally, and electronics? Without blowing inflation out of the water? Will China be able to drive a global rise in imports of Chinese made goods or will China be able to picot to a Services based economy without pain?

It means hong kong is not over. Never listen to an economist regarding predictions.

It was the UK that handed over HK, as he was not able to remember it!!!

Can’t fault an economist that distills, commoditizes and compares a whole community to stocks

Hong Kong is now just another medium sized Chinese city and that is what the PRC intended when they took over. The National Security Law is about to be revised , probably made more draconian. Right now doing business in HK is probably no different than Shanghai. Sad as HK truly was a special place.

"The HK handover hand-wringing was overblown, ...but HK is over now." Geeze. Please see the connection.

Unfortunately I have to agree. Just look at the china and hk stocks performance. Investors don’t believe this time hk can reinvent itself. The reason is plain simple. Hk is now no more international city but just another Chinese city. Just walking are you can hear more and more mandarin speakers. Sad but true

And yet we hear from the Chinese side that the China is thriving and US is falling apart 😂. Chinas economy is a ticking time bomb

Listening to economists is very much like listening to TV psychics

HK during the UK era was largely supported by western corporations. And now, these corporations are diminishing their presence in HK due to pressure from their local governments. Those governments see China as their enemy and will do everything to suppress its economical development.

He's right and therefore so is China.

Yes, the old British colonial Hong Kong is thankfully over but the new Chinese high-tech and fin-tech center Hong Kong, part of China's Greater Bay Area (China's "Silicon Valley") is just getting started! 🇭🇰❤🇨🇳

This old man doesn’t know where he is.

The problem with Hong Kong is mostly it's waning competitive advantage as tax haven inside a tax haven. Back in the colonial days, Hong Kong was a very pleasant place for large European companies to set up their headquarters: there's lot's of cash awash and a more entrepeneural approach towards fiscal policies. For China, this meant that Hong Kong by itself carried most of China's GDP. But those days are over. Hong Kong is vastly surpassed by nearby Shenzhen and Guangzhou in terms of GDP. And for places with lot's of cash and lackluster approach towards fiscal policies, European companies are looking more and more towards the Gulf Emirates and the City of London (or a combination thereof). Except for large European real-estate funds, who love a Hong Kong with a stricter hand from Beijing. But seeing how the Chinese real-estate market develops, they might be exposed to certain risks which could have consequences in Europe. To put it mildly.

Hong Kong is long over. Singapore is the bright spot!

Nothing is over until the owner says so. And Yale is merely making noise.

The British should have kept Hong Kong for thousand years.

It's sad that Chinese officials don't understand the market machinism. Even the most capalistic country like US is utilizing the socialistic tools to boost the market... Why can't China do it?

The OLD FART is finally coming into grips with reality.

Why would China find middle ground no reason they are happy to gobble up hk. Sad and personally I hate that but true.

He figured it out! Great insight! 😂

Lots of CCP Bots working overtime 😂

It doesn’t have much to offer now.

HK prosperity always depend on Mainland China economy, it is a gateway to China, without China, it is a gateway to nowhere.

Countries must warn their business about the risks of operating in Hong Kong, especially after Messi refused to play there.

Free Hong Kong! Free Xinjiang! Free Tibet!

lol “can China find a middle ground?” After the last 30 years, the answer is a hard no.

Yes HK died when my yeye died. RIP yeye.

LOL who is this guy ? Some of us actually live here and Hong Kong is all good here. Want to know what countries are in a steep decline ? canada and the usa. But of course nobody will admit that

"hand wringing was overblown" ffs.

You still look at hk comparing to other china city's 40 year's ago other city's have passed hk wake up

Hong kong literally done in the 90s

Žalosno je što su uništili tako divan grad. 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

It’s the beginning of the end

Hong Kong has always depended on Chinese trade post WW2. The final nail was hammered by CIA through NED funding and cheering the 2019 massive violent protest. While China has to de-risk in rebuilding her regional financial centers and the UK BNO luring massive emigration into UK! Today, many of those migrating to UK are still not gainfully employed.

old Hong Kong is over. new Hong Kong, remaking in China.

China has significant long term issues. Maybe one day we will see a independent Hong Kong, Taiwan and Tibet.

Hong Kong did better under the UK colonial system? Perhaps we should bring back an appointed governor and take away general elected seats of Legco. The Pan Democrats slowly killed HK with their minority vetoes on any constructive policy.

Thanks to CCP😢

This just in: Stephen Roach has been demonetized and censored by RU-vid!

That's the tiniest bowtie I've ever seen.

America is over

Hongkong is over being western hub state

Nice pipe smoking room with cognac?

Agreed. Next will be cantonese. Mandarin will be initiated absolutely

nah......HK will always hold a special place in the hearts & minds of us asians

Lol....

It's over? Isn't that what they said in 1984? And 1996? And 1998? And 2003, 2008, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2019, 2020, and probably every single year in between as well? This is subconscious racism. People aren't going to just keel over and die, or pack up and go "somewhere." They have lives to live and will find other things to do or invest in. Hong Kong is an affluent place, they have faced worse challenges before and every time it has remained a resilient city. Even if some of the multinationals leave, the local economy is nothing to sneer at. Also, Hong Kong has been reliant on the Chinese economy since the 1980s. That's the whole reason why it got rich so quickly, using the massive labour pool and a monopoly on southern China's exports. That monopoly has naturally waned as other cities have developed seaports, and Chinese labour has moved up the value chain.

Lets wait for another 3 years and visit this posting again. A lot have been said about the fall of China over the decades and time and again China was predicted to collapse yet China keep going strong. This is yet again another one.

The thing about a place like Hong Kong is how resilient it has been over the decades. Everytime a disaster or perceived "end" happens, it always bounces back.

1 THE chinese economy is never ever going to be based totally on s service and financialized economy. The new chinese economy is still going to be based on manufacturing, but high value added manufacturing. china Does not need the American market either. Their domestic market alone is 4x the size of the u.s population. Since china is also the world's largest trading partner, the most damage will be to the American economy because we do not have access to global raw materials supply chain,skilled laborer forces infrastructure and no manufacturing base.

This guy talking just shows why Yale and rest of the Ivy League are in so much trouble. Just a lot of nonsensical rambling instead of just getting to the point. It’s almost like he has an ulterior motive 🤔💲💵💰.

Bloomberg just makes up stories, or interviews someone who makes up stories.

US & the west are falling apart. Please advise them how to solve homelessness and drug problems.

😑 To the host: being paid top dollar💰to work as expats in financial hubs like Hong Kong are Tokyo are NOT ‘tours of duty’! :// Your comment about highly paid finance expats doing MANDATORY ‘TOURS OF DUTY’ in cities like Hong Kong and Tokyo is in extremely poor taste. I’m shocked you could actually utter those words. (Clearly, you never served an actual combat tour.) (2:47) You said, ‘…If you were on global Wall Street, you HAD to do a ‘TOUR OF DUTY’ in Hong Kong… Tokyo…’. Perhaps you should re-think how you perceive your work/field, or at least how you convey that work to others. I’m not sure our American service members who actually do serve TOURS OF DUTY in combat and work in austere locations/circumstances would appreciate your depiction of lucrative Wall Street assignments in these financial hubs, being paid top dollar💰as expats in cities like Hong Kong and Tokyo, as ‘tours of duty’. :// Btw, I don’t typically pick apart how people say things, but the terminology you used to depict that season of your work is clearly how you consistently view and convey it - & it’s just totally off the mark & inappropriate.

If you listen to this video to try to see why exactly "Hong Kong Is Over" you realise they have said absolutely nothing. Boohoo, the city isn't what it used to be like when it was a colony of a country on the other side of the world? The politics of the city don't matter other than political influence on fiscal policy and the threat of being directly impacted from geopolitical trade wars. Why do we still see western business leaders going to China? I don't know? Maybe because it is the second largest economy in the world and is projected to have the largest consumer market by 2030? Maybe because, although decreasing, 19% of Apple's annual sales come from China? All this talk about how it feels like to live in a city but it could be the worst place in the world to live in and it wouldn't matter if there is money to be made. Why would a company care? If you talked about up-and-coming financial hubs growing to replace Hong Kong this would have been an actually interesting video but instead, we get a video with a meaningless message.

Over since 1997

beijing is pronounced beijing not bei zhing

Still use hk dollars... Seems it become time of the qing again isolationism with hongkong as window

Roach,the US is over too.

It is sad to see Hong Kong has lost its glory.

Hong Kong is back where it belongs is Anglo Saxon going try taken Hong Kong back???

You mean starting over😂

I hope to see a population change in Hong Kong. Too many hkers think they’re better than mainlanders. Which is great they just belong where their heart lies. I would love to see a follow up on the hong Kongers that migrated to UK. I bet you most are struggling but most probably come from stable financial background, aka rich parents. Hong Kong is done and cannot compete with the fishing village across the bay. That is called called Shenzhen where everything cheaper and more space to grow. But Hong Kong will evolve.

never say over

It really ended at midnight on July 1 1997

You better advice UK and US on economy more. They need your advice

😂😂😂 over what ??? He haven’t say a damn thing .

exactly what they want

China is getting prosperous. So HK will not have the same advantages as its used to be. That's the fact

What exactly does he mean by "over"? If I guess it correctly, honestly I believe the Collective West is truly over! Hongkong has a unique position in China, the development of which is amazing, it's not that simple to conclude HK is over! The wheel of foetune is clearly turning towards this part of the world! Good luck anyway to the West!

Bottom is in!

Hong Kong is finished for who?

this guy know nothing about Asia