You Shouldn’t Time The Market (Here’s Why)| Joseph Carlson Ep. 251 

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Don't fight the market. Take what the market gives you. If there's volatility, use it to your advantage. A down day tomorrow is a good opportunity for long term investors to buy quality stocks and ETFs cheap.

Trying to time the stock market is like trying to understand women. You may at some point think you have somewhat mastered it, before it whacks you across the head.

Joseph. This video gives value to a lot of people. Easy explained and high quality. Thank you!

Is Ashlee Action single by chance?

5:18 that “slight decrease” in dividends paid is actually -20%,sure, less than price drops but still significant

This episode is a must-watch for investors - good market-timing is close to impossible for retail investors and why DCA or investing once the money becomes available is the wisest approach.

Why do you accept the research on market timing but not on efficient market theory?

would you buy tesla if it payed a dividen fx yield of 4% payout ratio 20%?

I like to just dollar cost average into the stocks that I think are the best value to buy. Dividend Investors should be more excited when a stock drops, cause then they are getting a higher dividend yield on cost!

Dollar cost averaging for the long term is the less stressful 😁

Hi Joseph, It will be immensely helpful from learning prospective if you can share the links to the studies and papers mentioned in the video. (In description or comments)

Where can wee see whole your portfolio possitions?

Anyone thinking they can time the market is arrogant and stupid. Simple. Most people when asked if they think they're smarter/more intelligent than average say yes. Even a lot of the objectively dumbest in society that have failed every test they've ever had, can't read or write and have screwed up every decision still say yes. Therefore if most people think market timing is achievable it should be avoided. Think back in history about collective wisdom; at one point everyone thought smoking was good for you then a small group of people work hard to chip away at that thought with counter evidence and eventually people change their minds. Right now most people have never managed their own investing but apps and increased knowledge thanks to social media are making it more common than ever. The vast majority of these people will be stupid and make lots of mistakes. Attempting market timing as a means to faster & bigger returns is one of them.

Where i can find this study ?

This is the best investing channel by far. Low clickbait, no drama, just analysis and facts, real portfolio instead of random excel sheets. Thanks!

Can we just take a second to appreciate JC for *never* having to say “FYI I’m not a financial advisor” in his videos. Grinds my gears when RU-vidrs in their mom’s basement presume we think of them so highly.

Why VICI over Reality Income, would like to hear your opinion or maybe a video on it. Great video

If you have still underperformed the market by 2025, will you switch to index funds?

I have a question: why not just leave auto invest on and just purchase shares when they’re at a relative discount to your overall portfolio?

Buy low - sell high 👌😁🔥

3:34 Irrespective* Regardless and irregardless would mean the same thing.

Could you talk about Intel in a video again? Would like see your opinion and have you changed your mind.

I'm very confused, why are you setting up four individual monthly reoccurring deposits into M1? Wouldn't one weekly deposit suffice?

Now do this for the perfect stock picker vs. the worst stock picker! :D

It doesnt matter what happens while youre invested it only matters when you bought and when you sold. Unless youre getting dividends.

So your going to ignore the multiple studies demonstrating that preservation of capital during bear market was the key factor in success with outperforming the market over long periods of time or that allocation of investments should change based on market conditions for greater success in a portfolio. DCA is effective technique if your buying indexes over long periods but when your buying individual stocks it becomes about your decisions. So buying Amazon stock in May of 2000 beats any other decision that you make. But if you have $100000 in stocks and market drops 50 % and you hold the index you have half. But if your holding a sector that doesn't crash as hard say utilities and they drop 10%. Now you redeploy back into the market with a 40000 advantage. You haven't done this but I have in multiple crashes over the years. And studies demonstrate this. I'm in the market just not blindly. Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch all do this. A study showed that if you only buy stocks when the vix is above 30 beats everything you said.

Do you have a video that goes through your dividend stock picks?

Joseph what's your dividend yield on this portfolio? I never seen you mentioning... I'm curious can you pls share your dividend yield?

*Talking about trading crypto/stock, crypto market has brought me great success!!! Irrespective of the economic downturn I can boast of over $57000 every month on my investment(Ethereum and XRP). Thank you Kimberly Jose for your focus on quality management. blessings🙌*

The best days during the bear markets and the worst days during the bull market point was priceless. Keep up the good work.

4000 dollar per month lol! That is like 10 times more what people can spend at the end of the month.

Damn Joseph advertising for a crypto company? They must of thrown you a big bag or my boy got a side crypto portfolio if you do we'd love to hear about it.

So perfect or worst timing doesn't matter - time in market matters most!

The stock market has been a really tough one this past year, but I watched an interview on CNBC where the anchor kept mentioning " TERESA JENSEN WHITE ". This prompted me to get in touch with her, and from March 2022 till now we have been working together, and I can now boast of $540,000 in my trading portfolio.

MO is down 9% lol I already own BTI but good lawd I'm so on board for at least 50 shares...damn goverment overreach

Buy high and sell low baby! Innovation!

Lump sum investing baby. Dogs of the Dow method shows the power of lump sum investing...

For those still in the accumulation phase of wealth-building, your advice is good. I submit, however, that as retirement approaches, the probabilities and risks shift toward a stronger cash position. I'm 68, and plan to retire in a couple of years. That changes things, I think.

9:30 am and 2 pm with the platform you use, this are your options nothing in between ;)

I got out of vici. Worried about the water situation in Vegas

On Qualtrim, can we please have the following info for REITs? FFO AFFO Price to FFO Price to AFFO FFO Per Share AFFO Per Share A chart showing historicals would be so cool too.

It is stupid to say market timing doesn t work. In times when there is greed everywhere it is time to build cash and in times of great fear it is time to raise the dca and it is buying time.

DCA 💵

The question of do we try to time the market was back in January 2022, when it was pretty obvious this was all heading down big time. Some of us decided that this was not a situation to DCA, but rather stick to targeted shorter term bets on energy for example and/or just sit it out on the sidelines until the market was much, much lower. And we were right and you were wrong, plain and simple. QQQ is down around 30% YTD. You don't have to time perfectly. No one says you have to. But if you had just not been so greedy, you could have avoided a lot of pain. I think there is still a fair amount of room to the downside. I say this because there is still way too much greed in the market.

Best show in a while. Well done mate.

Could you link the media about market timing?

Joseph, I too dollar cost average on a weekly basis, just not quite as much. But I have 20 equally weighted companies in my M1 pies (there is a taxable account and a Roth IRA). The proceeds are invested each week according to the weighting and, therefore, I buy more of what is down and less of what is up. This is a “dogs” strategy which has crushed the S and P since I implemented it. I am slightly down in 1 portfolio and modestly up in another. Part of the reason I love M1 is its auto invest feature, which allows me to do this. All (except Disney) are dividend growth companies and, right now, the dividends are saving me.

You should check out Ben Felix's video "Are 'Good Companies' Good Investments?" if you haven't already. Should make for a good segment if you're looking for something to talk about in a future video.

Yeah good argument but you bought sbux. I can’t give any kind of relevance

So many finance RU-vidrs trying to time the market like chicken genius lol

I agree about not timing. That said, I think we have much farther downside.

In general, timing stock market is not a good idea,.. but what after HUGE Run Up's like in 2020 ??

If you invest $10k into S&P 500 from 1980 to 2020 without timing the market and keep all your money everyday, the overall return is $952,512. But if you time the market and just get out to missed the best 10 days in the midst of the bear markets, the total return of the investment become $425,369.

you spend so much time doing research on your stocks, the income is no longer passive

Dollar cost averaging is for suckers. It’s all about high frequency trading, naked calls and puts, and buying the crypto dip.

My boy said "irregardless" ❤

Odd to me how it seems like it takes years for the market to go up, only for those gains to be wiped out in 3-6 months. Why is the downturn so rapid? Or is it just my imagination?

I buy high and sell low.... :)

Why don’t you just have one transfer set up to deposit weekly..?

Quality and valuable advance here

One of your best videos

Still trying to convince yourself huh??? Lmao. What was a good strategy back in 1929? Did your grandpa buy the dip and dca?

The missing the market's best days chart blew my mind. Excellent share.

If you can only save $150 to $200 a month what would DCA in? Just curious, something like SPY?

Great video...thanks!

For your list of people in your test, although it was stated as a lump sum division for #3 in comparison to #2, I personally feel that it doesn't do DCA enough justice. Just like you are doing with monthly DCA the moment you get cash, #2 should have pulled behind #3 on the fact that you don't usually get a lump sum in the beginning of the year.....so in a more realistic sense, I think #2 should have been stated as someone who "holds their money for a year and then invests it all at the end" and would fall behind #3. Either way, it's still marginal anyway and both are still good. However, the big thing is that m1 isn't just about DCA....but rather it purposely chooses your underperforming companies in the list over your overperformers....this is a DCA boost because it already takes into account "bear" territory clearances for collection. I would wager that if you were to pick a good set of companies and did the test using m1 ideology, you would actually outperform the s&p quite easily. This is what I never understood when people say "you can't beat the market"....but then look to an ETF as "the market." I'm sorry, but if that's the grade of determination, then yes, you definitely can beat the market, each and every time. When you add option plays into the mix and you get proficient with them, it's not only easily possible, it's a defined certainty. You can't "time" the market, sure, but you can definitely beat it.

Congrats

Are you going to be adding to DIS since its around your cost basis or below.

I really liked the studies presented, thanks!

You are sort of contradicting yourself when you say you should NOT time the market but still use dip finder to buy your companies

Even if Caesars or any other tenant went out of business, VICI owns prime real estate how long until another operator moves into those buildings 5-10 minutes? How long would those buildings really stay empty? Not long

Why don’t you just make the rules 1k/week? Instead of 4 1k/mo rules? What am I missing lol

What about the Great Depression?

There is one very important aspect, that is selling, missing in this study. Mainly getting out completely or majorly when market is going down and then get in when it is going up. One doesn't have to perfectly time it. But selling and coming out is important. This study doesn't factor that.

"The nice thing about dividends is that they are not in the control of the investors, dividends are in the control of the actual company" - Joseph Carlson

The best and worst days argument may work for indexes but it's entirely out the window for individual stocks.

Hi Joseph… I believe my method of timing the market is similar to yours. I have a method of identifying stocks when they are more favorable for purchase that is similar to your dip finder. It works great, but it is definitely not DCA. I would never use a DCA approach. DCA requires a scheduled approach for buying and it doesn’t make sense to me. I usually give you a hearty thumbs up, but not this time. Thank you so much for your insight and research info you provide. Many of the stocks I ended buying over the last several years have been based on your excellent analysis!

Are you worried about the impact of the water shortage on Las Vegas and VICI?

"The best days occur in the bear market, and bad days occur in the bull market. The best days and worse days have often occurs close together." Well said!!!

Lump sum at the top and wait.

My portfolio is only a bit larger that yours Joseph and I was up 185K at highs and now I'm down 35K. Wild swing!

So you are saying now is a good time to buy a house?

Dividend is taxed as ordinary income in a taxable account. If you take into account the tax bite is dividend investing more profitable than non-dividend stocks?

Anyone else just stop watching as soon as the promotion starts?

The what vs if could just be an error, english is not a first language for many people

Don’t buy yourself out’ some told me at a bar.. but in fact, even if you’re still down; invest

Musk did not say he’d fire 10% of its workforce. He said 10% of its “waged employees”. So that’s around 3000 people, not 10’000 - because like other car manufacturers a lot of the workforce is contractors. Few weeks later Musk also confirmed that Tesla will keep growing its workforce.

I just can’t get passed Disney’s P/E ratio. They have a sticky brand and strong library of content but the earnings are underwhelming compared to price even with this drop in share price.

How’s your Disney and Costco positions?

During the 2001 recession, the gaming revenues within the United States increased even as economic activity in the other industries decreased (AGA, 2008). However, casinos in all markets did not fare as well during the latest recession (2007/2010).

Timing the market is not for everyone. You can't enter the market during bull cycle expecting to make incredible gains and then when you start to loose money during bear market sell it all. That's a recipe for disaster. Stock market is all about patience, decades of patience..

Ceasars bankruptcy would barely be a blip. Ceasars would likely be a debtor in possession during the bankruptcy and would need to stay in operation in order to have a viable operation during and after the proceeding.

Uh, no. The dividends are just part of a total return. They are not "keeping you in the green". Had they not been paid, you would have the same amount of total return - it would just be moved over to the capital gains section of THE SAME TOTAL RETURN, lol.

Daddy

Hi Joseph! What do you recommend for someone who receives income in different currencies? Namely one that is down 30% compared to USD is just a year. I'd happily dollar cost average in but the USD-HUF exchange costs are discouraging to say the least.

What happens to vici if property in Las Vegas becomes less valuable over time? Lake Mead is dropping at a rapid rate, this supplies water and electricity to millions of people. Lots of RU-vid videos of local people showing how serious this problem is. Having such a large portion of their portfolio in Las Vegas do you see this as a problem?

Rosie Rotten gang where you at 💪

Hindsight analysis with historical data of uptrend market 😅

By selling at the highs and buying at lows u are timing the market too. Not investing until a Bottom is not a good choice no.