I am American. We feel like we don't have very much buying power. Corporations are hiring right now but that won't last. Wealth goes to the super rich. For the masses, austerity. All developed nations are the same. Fight the 1% by unionizing and taxing the rich.
Its common sense Americans would rather compete with totalitarian China in investment & trade than apply as Beijing's employees & live just for bread & butter....
Free Trade is the worst thing ever. Manufacturing is essential to national security. WWII was won by the USA and its allies because the USA had a massive manufacturing industry that turned from private manufacturing to military manufacturing. Free trade should only be used with military allies. You should never depend on your enemy to get your goods and services.
Are you guys soft? GDP growth was 2.5% in 2023, and 1.9% in 2022. Those are NOT good numbers. In the 80s growth was 4%, (1983) 7% (1984) 4% (1985) and then above three percent for four more years. GDP hasn’t been above 3% at all since 2005 except for 2021, because of the Covid recovery.
Westerners think the growth of China is a threat of taking power from western. It’s the insecurity from within. We all amazed by how China created an economic miracle in the past 40 years but forgot to see the motivations behind that. One of the critical things they did among all was education, it’s not just about financial. Read history, you will learn how bad situations and poor the country was. It’s not only poor, weak, occupied, divided and being humiliated not only in their own motherlands but also in the world stage. China has been developing a self sufficient path in the past and for the future. They came out a policy that requested each province became proficient to attract tourists, which has been working. Mixed with historical sites and geographic differences in most of provinces, Chinese tourism has been so popular domestically. We were in China for a month and left before May holiday, there were so many people traveling from different cities. We can continue treat China as a threat but they have been trying to take care of their people and make sure they will not be bullied in the world stage is for sure one of the goal in their agendas.
So they were extremely poor under Authoritarian Communist rule, embraced Capitalism (with CCP holding the reins) and got rich. Corruption from the CCP has hurt the economy so now they’re going to double down on Authoritarian rule. Sounds about right. 😒
You alluded to but didn’t focus much on the fact that power, which often leads to wealth corrupts. Your mention of the fact that state lead enterprises controlled by CCP members are reluctant to move away from models that made them wealthy failed to mention that many CCP members don’t have much faith in the CCP itself but rather use it as a vehicle to attain wealth. Once attained, many of these elites follow the example set by elite Hong Kongers who packed up their wealth and left for greener pastures in 1997 after Hong Kong reverted back to Chinese rule. I could be wrong but I believe that Chinese elites will go to any length to keep wealth in the family which they view as far more important than fealty to the CCP. I know for a fact that CCP members often set there families up abroad with real estate and businesses to manage and later join them. If this wealth extraction continues the end result will be political and societal instability just as is beginning to be seen in the USA and other countries. I do agree with your assessment of a protracted stagnation but also think a great collapse is inevitable if the CCP remains intransigent. There are also many pieces to the puzzle not mentioned that could also exacerbate China’s slumping economy and recovery.
lol. This video did not age well. This guy has no idea about the difference between Bitcoin and Crypto. And no idea about decentralization. The real purpose of Bitcoin is to save. Not speculation.
If you think China can remotely just switch off all the Chinese made electric vehicles you are either stupid or this is western propaganda. You don't think anyone would notice such a kill switch? You present Huawei as an example of the Chinese spying on you but not once has the US government been able to prove this but its has been repeatedly proven that google does spy on the entire world.
Great analysis. Too many commentators get the politics wrong. Apart from Gorbachev who else has given up a dictatorial position voluntarily? Not in 40 years, which is why any analysis of Türkiye is flawed.
absolutely. The EU didn't like that either. Neither did China. www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3219279/tech-war-china-slams-us-chips-act-subsidies-wto-beijings-latest-protest-against-washingtons
I'm onboard the stagnation model. The CCP will be unwilling to deviate wealth and power from their capital ventures to more broad sectors in services. The crackdown on Alibaba and Tencent is a big indicator that the CCP is not willing to share power with the general population. Also their head of state is plenty stubborn but time will tell.
How could you speak in such fawning terms about how their great growth model caused their success when everyone in the engineering and manufacturing sectors knows that China's growth was largely succored by avoiding R&D costs by unabashed theft of IP on a breathtaking scale? Their decline is also accelerated by that very theft, since without having done the work they dont know how to do jack squat properly? Their economy over the past 30 years has been the valedictorian who cheated off his classmates to get the grades and is found to be utterly incapable at his job afterward. Good riddance to them and shame on you and your economists for avoiding this glaring part of the China economy story.
People keep forgetting that China was the best country in the world for 4500/5000 years. It's not surprising that it would want to get back to the #1 spot. If there is a revolution and the CCP is dismantled then they certainly can get back to the #1 spot, but even if "China" gets back to being the number #1 economy in the world, is has 4X the population, so the citizens will still be 75% less well off then someone in the USA.
The other economist who thinks housing is more affordable because mortgage interest rate is low is stupid. I would rather buy a cheap house with high interest rate and settle the loan in 5 years , then to buy an expensive house and get struck in a 30 years loan. If the house is cheap I might be able to down-payment more, cutting the loan duration. Ironically the other economist did not think far ahead. I am really bless to be born a Singaporean.
It's all a scam. The gov't is scamming us period. They simply raised the interest to get more money to pay for foreigners hotel stays while they destroy the country. Right now in NYC 50 of hotels are housing criminal migrants. The feds are pay $400 a day for migrants while people here for generations are homeless or a slave to high rents. Trump was right he said we would loose our country.
Good to see the West finally waking up. Buying things from communist China today is like buying from the USSR in 1989. Madness. Needed to stop eventually.
The dominancy of the US and its USD have a negative effect on the world economy due to irresponsibility of the US in printing money to rip off other countries' economic outputs without itself producing enough output in return. Therefore the decline of US and USD will unleash a huge economic benefit to the rest of the world, so I see a brighter future here, poverty worldwide will decrease 😊
Except it is no longer being accepted that western countries should accepted the tariff differential With China being the second largest economy in the world everyone is tired of giving them the free ride.
Fragmentation is not a lost it's a win. We all know logistics is the king of wars. The US was able to win WWII for a few reasons. One, they had massive amounts of factories, due to the open market. They had railroads, seaports. They were able to make more parts for military weapons and transfer them quickly. In the begging of the war Germany had more tanks by the end of the war there was no comparing the USA had 10 times more. If you want to poses power you better have all your factories in your own country and not depend on other countries for good and services. There can be trade but never free trade.
People said it wouldnt be a superpower for 20 years. People have been saying its been failing for the past 30 years. A large group of people this size, with access to most of the worlds most valuable resources, is not going to fail anytime soon. They are waiting for the US to slip - either withdraw from the international stage, or become bogged down in another priority. They make slow moves everytime that happens, with long term economic goals solidyfying their future potential.
it is now 7 months since this video was posted. It would seem Peter Zeihan commentary from back then, essentially unchanged up to today, is far more in line with reality than Joeri Schasfoort. China is in a huge mess right now, and it is quickly getting worse. As a USA manufacturer, I have a number of components we source form China. Up until 6 months ago, Chinese sales account managers were less than optimistic, but still continuing education efforts for international studies etc. In the last 2 months the attitude has gone significantly downhill. They have no plans other than to try and hold on to their jobs, and whatever reduced pay they are given. Ignore the western influencers paid by China to push propaganda. Do pay attention to the mass emigration of Chinese millionaires, the rapid escape of western corporates, the unwillingness of Chinese women to marry, let alone have children. Watch China Update, by Tony, which provides a thoughtful and concise analysis of the major economic news originating out of China every day. Property is now approaching discounts of 75%, if the property is even saleable in the first place. LG debt, inability to raise revenue to service this debt or create new debt. China attempting to make the yuan a tradeable currency and failing abysmally. China's claims to become more self sufficient agriculturally are also failing. Look at the factories which were the main suppliers of footwear, computers, appliances that are now closed. Tertiary educated unemployment now in the vicinity of 50%. A country that is reliant on sea based imports for reliable food and energy, easily to blockade outside of China's territorial waters. And then watch channels such as the China show, with westerners who used to live in China, talking about the fakery, tofu dreg, social disharmony and unrest. I feel bad for the people, some are friends, and they cannot express what is happening even on secure apps such as whatsapp. Had interesting discussions over the past 20 years, not anymore. It is too dangerous for them to discuss.
I know Xi is against UBI, but what if (due to the late reaction to shifting into a consumption economy) the CCP pushed for a maximized automation economy? They could skip a stage in the three layer model by then taxing the manufacturing and agricultural sectors which would no longer be employing people, and redirect revenue into UBI so that people can consume more?
Meanwhile ppl are asleep and dont know nothing about WEF ties with china ! It was all a giant chinese plant to DE-INDUSTRIALIZE the west or even cause CIVIL WAR !
Why do we keep attributing such high population numbers to China, isn’t it now well known that that they’ve been lying about their population growth for some time and that the reality is nearer 800 million? I also remember speaking with Jack Ma in 2004 and I put it to him that without a middle-class consumer population in China they could never create a domestic consumer led service economy to take up the slack once sales globally had started to settle competitively. He agreed and pointed out that his superiors in government had no interest in doing so since it would amount to a dilution of power in the lower orders and was too risky a challenge for the party. We agreed that China needed to liberalise to an uncomfortable level, incentivise western migration of the professional middle-class so that vital proprietary western thinking culture could merge with a new domestic, educated professional class to shore-up the future as it transitioned. Of course these were just ideas but it happens to resonate with what’s happened. The Party’s solution seems to be to spy harder, oppress further and fail in their great social engineering experiment; it’s the sparrow all over again.
Before i watch video i will answer your questions: Why powerful: was able to use their people as slave labour for the west Why stagnation: pissed off the west while making a gross overestimation that they would have brains enough to create the west's technology themselves What will happened: war, if they win they will be able to grow their economy, if they lose. We will probably see an open rebellion inside china.
Almost every single piece of economic information coming out of china is a lie. It's impossible to quantify their economic growth or failure because of that. Corruption is also overwhelmingly pervasive, you can't run any company without being extorted by CCP party members.
Walmart made china rich and the u.s.a. poor. By outsourcing manufacturing they caused a foreign trade inbalance which is paid thru debt. This is why the U.S. has a huge debt.
China's culture & the way they think is more in line with Japan than the US, no matter how much they try to deny it. I agree with u, they will likely become the next Japan rather than the next US. The trade wars also don't help & population decline will make it even worse
Appreciate your video. I follow ziehan regularly but as you said, with a bit of salt. I am not an economist, nor a geopolitical political scientist. I am educated in science and so recieve most information with some skepticism, pending verification. At the same time i do find Peter's presenrations informative.
