Economist Fact-Checks Zeihan's China Collapse Story 

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I read a great comment about Zeihan. "He's successfully predicted 20 of the last 3 global crises." Cracked me up.

This sort of credible challenge is deeply appreciated. Peter is still human and can make mistakes. I appreciate even more that you delivered this critique with the utmost of respect. You’re an excellent example of professionalism in this regard. Thank you.

Not just with China, but elsewhere, Zeihan does an excellent job identifying problems but consistently underestimates the ability of people to adjust and muddle through problems without falling apart. He is generally too pessimistic, but the problems he mentions are valid.

Your first point misunderstands the consumption. People in late 20's to early 30's are taking on lots of debt for housing when they start family formation. That's why that demographic is so important for growth. That economic demand shows shows up immediately without the corresponding income.

I think your peer reviews and fact check videos of these popular youtubers are really important. Especially as they serve a big audience that might not be as critical. This may cause even more less critical information spreading the globe. So well done Joeri. You make youtube a better place

I've watched a lot of Zeihan vids and value his analysis, but I'm often surprised at the somewhat extreme nature of his conclusions because they seem not to allow for the possibility of any intervention. I just don't think the world works that way. Thanks for your presentation.

Having lived in Mainland China, I got the sense that the more pessimistic reports about China tend to be the more accurate take. While PZ might sensationalize his predictions, the underlying trends he analyzes from are solid.

That’s exactly what I suspected, I always enjoy listening to him. I just turn his predictions down a few notches.

As a geography teacher I've been keeping tabs on Zeihan for many years and, in my view, he has always attracted people's attention through sensational claims. To me, he is a very knowledgeable sophist. In many of his talks with military personnel he make these claims about how America's greatest rivals aren't really a threat and that countries like China could be easily contained. In his lectures to American soy farmers he always claims that they shouldn't worry about Brazillian competition because of Brazil's bad infrastructure and narrow export corridors.However, year after year, Brazil has produced more soy beans, exported more and more, and has now finalized its largest railway in decades, that cuts the nation from north to south. To me, he will always overlook other nations success, particulary those that have some sort of beef with the US, may it be peaceful competition or geopolitcal rival. I'm a great admirer of the US society and, as a Brazillian, always find ways to learn more about our flaws by observing America's example, but Zeihan only seems to apreciate the success of his country and some of America's friends.

This is not a rampant debunking. It positions an strong alternative argument in a respectful way. Enjoyed it. Kudos.

I love Peter Zeihan. My biggest critique is a country could decline but not collapse. North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela are good examples. But to his credit he was the first one to call out Chinas issues when everyone else was saying China would surpass the US. I think Peter lays out a worse case scenario, but not far fetched scenarios.

Thanks for this video. At risk of showing my own “confirmation bias”, I’ve been watching doomsday predictions for various markets where my own business operates for over 35 years and though there is always a grain of truth to be respected, the net results have almost never unfolded the ways most observers have expected. The moral I have learned is listen to everything, believe nothing, and be prepared to react to real and tangible threats.

I appreciate your thoughtful criticism of Zeihan's predictions and assessments of China. I must mention the Lancet study was published before China admitted to miscounting its population in 2023. The impact was over 100 million. Given the propensity for China to report data with an overly optimistic lens, we are likely to see more corrected census reports. Not to criticize the Lancet, but if they are using faulty data from China, then their conclusions will be inaccurate.

I have traveled and worked in China for about forty years, and have followed its astonishing economic progress with a great deal of interest. You are correct: Zeihan correctly points out problems that now face China, but draws hyperbolic negative conclusions.

Regarding piracy, do you find it at all ironic that, since the Houthi's have begun attacking shipping, the only safe shipping through the region are those flagged either under China or Russia?

Great video! Loved hearing your perspective.

Great video, as a military officer I appreciate Zeihans perspective but yes, definitely important to understand that his perspective is one opinion and not an absolute truth on which to entirely base decisions.

What's telling about people like Zeihan is this: He speaks with absolute certainty without differentiaton on things that nobody can predict with certainty. He is a performer looking for fame, not a serious researcher or analyst.

Nicely done! I've learned a lot from Peter, but have often wanted to see the other side of the story...this was perfect to balance the conversation.

such a clear, savvy analysis and assessment! the apt visuals help, too. good work, thank you

Reason for following Zeihan: he explains important geopolitical issues in short videos in a clear, concise way. Nobody else is doing this, so he has a monopoly.

Thank you for this detailed insight. Sometimes when listening to Peter I have this nagging feeling that he is caught up in his own confirmation bias. I appreciate your rational and thorough analysis.

Peter Zeihan is like that postman Cliff Calvin in Cheers TV series. He knows everything a little bit. And he can string some big words together and appears to be coherent.

I really enjoyed how this video presented the keypoints raised by Mr. Zeihan. I agree with some of the counter arguments, one thing wasn't addressed about the housing market in China, oversupply. They have double the amount of housing units to house double their population. The more of something you have the cheaper it becomes. How will the Chinese deal with this inflationary bubble which will collapse and likely take two thirds of the property value with it. Fundamentally, I do not see a way out without a serious and painful market correction. This is one thing in a democracy, something completely different in a dictatorship.

Excellent analysis. Mr Zeihan, in my opinion, confirms the theory that "a man sees what he wants to see, and disregards the rest".

PZ is the best at describing which players hold what cards, and which of those cards matter. When he misses, it's usually on how the players play their cards. We also gotta give him credit that most prognosticators who are as bold in their forecasts are far less accurate. Also he gives better info than most news headlines these days. ("$1T of rare earth elements found in Afghanistan!" vs "that was one survey, there is no infrastructure, there is no electricity"

Not hitting your timing and being wrong are two different things. Things are falling apart slower than he expected, but we can see it happening in real time.

Great job, very professional and valuable work! 👍

Zeihan is the Tony Robbins of geopolitics. He leaves you feeling absolutely convinced that he's a guru. But some of his conclusions don't stand up to critical inspection, as you've just demonstrated.

This is very competent, careful analysis. Your conclusion is right on the money. Peter Z provides provocative insight, but people are seduced by his confidence and salesmanship. NOBODY knows the future, especially when it comes to collective human behavior. Having said that, COMPARATIVE analysis like this is invaluable to help us understand our complex world. Thank you.😊

I really appreciate this video! Thank you for your fact checking! Love your perspective!

I think the point that Zeihan makes on the Chinese navy is that whilst they have more vessel’s, those vessels have got a very small range and would be able to provide support over longer distances e.g Middle East or Argentina. Also the shipping lanes they have to go past on both routes head through the territory of US allied nations so could easily be disrupted. Good video over all and quite eye opening on the first point but I do think you have underplayed his arguments on 2 and 3

I've said before about this guy that I feel like I need to fact check every word he says. It just sounds so dramatized.

Thank you for your research and insights.

Very Fair!!! Exactly the commentary I was looking for after watching Peter's presentation! Thanks

Dude definitely goes into the doomsday scenarios but he does bring up valid points about the challenges modern nations are facing which are real concerns

It's always smart to have multiple inputs regarding these big complicated global issues, especially when they act in a check and balance dynamic.

60 minutes had an episode on Sunday evening. The reporting from that segment pretty much reflected what Peter said in his episode.

I listened to this and now I am more convinced that Zeihan may be right.

Some counterpoints: 1. By Yi Fuxian's estimate China overcounts its population by 200 million, chiefly among the younger cohorts; 2. While it is true that you can move people from the rural countryside to cities for an increased working pool, this seems like something that has already been done; 3. Increasing the retirement age can help to keep people working, but this raises labor costs; 4. Comparing China to Nigeria or other population-boomers doesn't account for globalization, which China has benefited from while Nigeria has not to the same degree; 5. The issue with piracy is simplified: the problem is international norms and regulations and whether someone is policing bad actors. As we speak something like 500-600 Russian vessels form a "dark fleet" with their transponders turned off which puts other vessels at risk, these ships are uninsured meaning if they run aground the country they run aground in is liable to pay for the damages. Now replace "oil tanker" with "privateer" like we've seen in Somalia. Yes, the Somali skiffs are funny and cute, but even then they're a symptom of what happens when the US is not securing a chunk of maritime real estate. 6. Zeihan's comment about the US navy "no longer being ideal" isn't contradictory; he's pointing out that the purpose of the US navy has changed which is reflected in a reliance on Carrier Battlegroups. 7. You're conflating ship size (tonnage) with what the ships can do. There's a reason China's Belt and Road Initiative is characterized by purchasing docking space across Asia, as these ships cannot move very far from the coast. The term you're looking for is "blue water navy"; China's destroyers are primarily focused on defense and/or invasion of Taiwan. 8. To return to piracy. The issue is not "pirates roam the open oceans, arr", but "hey our KPMG analyst points outs that if we take Route A, due to risk of piracy our risk premiums are up 4%, and there's also a risk that by 2035 this route will become uninsurable". See: Black Sea and Ukraine grain exports, or Russia's oil exports ("dark fleet"). The issue is lack of insurance. 9. Your argument that China would revert to farming seems to completely contradict your earlier demographic solution: move the young from the countryside to the cities. Pick one. 10. China's hoarding of grain isn't only for consumption by humans but to feed its livestock. China is home to 50 % of all pigs in the world which like eating things; pork has become a status symbol and part of the middle class diet. 11. Zeihan addresses the Venezuelan fuel issue separately, pointing out that oil does not equal oil, you need specialized refineries and some of the only ones that can process Venezuelan crude reside in the United States. As for Iran, note that there are no pipelines and this has to be transported by sea, and Iran's docks are quite limited. 12. You're not addressing the issue that the Chinese real estate bubble, unlike Japan's bubble of 1990, is driven by governmental not central bank policy. A distrust of the central bank is a problem, in China's history, distrust of government has been a much bigger issue. 13. The measures you bring out as "China's government responding" have been addressed above I believe. I also view Zeihan as interesting and I do believe his takes have a lot of truth to them. But timing things like China's collapse would be silly. He was correct in predicting Russia's invasion of Ukraine however which seemed insanity at the time, which is why I would give him a lot of rope.

As a Zeihan fan, I have to say I love this video. Great critique. Thank you!

Thanks for all the hard work!

Well done! About time too.btw, i actually read Peters book but was skeptical about his conclusions

When you analyse consumption and show higher income of older people to show that most consumption is done by 35+ year olds, you forget one crucial element - taking on mortgages to buy apartments/houses by younger people. Its a big expense, driving consumption up a lot in the present - but being paid of in later decades. This totally changes the argument - double in Zeihan's favor, since this will also exacerbate China's real estate problems.

Note on Japan's economy stalling in the 80s: Japan was forced to sign the 1985 Plaza Accords where it forced the US Dollar to devalue against the Yen, which contributed greatly to Japan's lost decades. China has no such constraint.

The recent issues in the Red Sea regarding the Houthis show that China clearly DOES need the US Navy to maintain the shipping lanes.

Thank you for your thoughtful analysis. I am intrigued by China's situation like everyone else watching this video probably. I have been listening to Peter's audiobook and watching his presentations, and your arguments bring a few things to mind for me. First, the piracy issue. I think Peter's point isn't that the US is currently preventing piracy from affecting Chinese shipping but instead that the US naval projection to protect all shipping routes since WWII has served to deter piracy and other quasi at-gun-point "fees" from being charged by intermediate countries (I'm thinking Iran demanding a fee at Hormuz or UK/Spain demanding fee at Gibraltar, etc). So, assuming the US decides to stop its defense subsidy on the oceans (which I'm also not convinced completely by Peter that the US would opt to do this), these countries would have the ability to "hold up" international shipping lanes, i.e. Middle Eastern oil to Far East. There are many implications here, such as Japan assuming the US's role in the Middle East and then offering coverage for Koreans, Taiwanese, etc for a security alliance "fee" like the US did during the Cold War, and many more configurations. Basically "piracy" as in 5 guys in a dingy with a couple of AK-47s is not the issue. The issue is that places that can squeeze others and haven't been doing so because of the shadow of a US destroyer may choose to do so when that shadow moves on. I want to clarify that I'm just trying to get a better idea of what's going on, not married to Peter's or Joeri's stances; I'm just pointing out some bumps in the logic as I see it, absolutely open/wanting to someone more knowledgeable than me laying this out.

Videos like this are so helpful. I think a lot of people, like me, circulate in RU-vid spaces similar to your channel because we're interested in learning about something that we don't already understand. The problem comes when we don't have the experience to know whether we're being fed BS. I am constantly on the lookout for reasonable voices like yours, and I appreciate when those reasonable voices raise red flags about people who I shouldn't rely on for information.

I'm glad you did this b/c I've watched many of Zeihan's videos, and while I find them illuminating (and not to mention entertaining) I've often wondered whether his prognostications are overblown and presented with way too much certainty. I think you've confirmed by hunches.

Excellent video, thank you.

About the housing bubble, there is a report from the CPC accessing the issue, claiming that it is inevitable and necessary for the bubble to pop at this point before it become so big that it will cripple the economy, encouraging the government to simply give up on saving Evergrande even though they have the complete ability to buy its debt and share it with their 4 largest banks in China and also the world.

When my favorite economical channel fact checks my favorite geo political channel... Loved it!

Like you said, Zeihan talks about some real problems but then makes outlandish predictions to get more attention. I think you can learn some things from his videos, if you just ignore his predictions.

Appreciate the alternate explanations. You do bring up important topics. This is why it is good to always verify what others are saying.

Good content, good explanation of how you came to your conclusions 👍

As you mentioned, the economist Michael Pettis also wrote about the debt-fuelled investment problem in China. Can you do a video explaining Pettis’s view on the matter? For instance, what did Pettis mean when he wrote about “rebalancing the Chinese economy”, “cutting nonproductive assets and infrastructure” and “transferring more wealth to the household”. I’d be interested to learn how other countries navigated out of the old growth model.

My issue with Zeihan’s predictions in general (not just on China) is not that they are fundamentally wrong but that he imagines these elaborate international systems as a being similar to a helicopter where, if you stop the rotor blades that keep the craft aloft, it simply falls out of the sky. In reality I think these systems are more like an airplane that can glide some distance and possibly even manage a crash landing.

What nation are you from?

You had me until :802. That's when you said 60 year old Chinese peasants are going be the new workforce.

Your opinion of Z is spot on! he gets the big picture more correct than most - but facts are sensational (and a bit sloppy). PLUS his presentation style is just so good! I am now a follower of YOU!! Excellent piece.

This content is really valuable and represents a growing niche in the age of social media, where that guy is right who is the most handsome or talks the smartest. Peer review and discourse in general, picking up the line from another contributor is essential and what we need. Please continue with this!

Interesting comment on Zeihan's statements, most of which I agree with. Where I see a massive misrepresentation of the situation is in the area of foodproduction. Not only has agricultural land in China shrunk massively due to the crazy construction boom, but climate change has further exacerbated and worsened desertification in large areas. Another problem for agricultural production is water. Not only is the quantity of water problematic in many areas, the quality is also disastrous. Around 60 % of groundwater is contaminated and should not be used for agricultural production. I consider a significant switch to domestic food production, in a timely fashion, when imports are eliminated or significantly reduced to be a pipe dream.

Good work here. Thank you

Thank you! Criticism of Ziehan has largely been focused on accusing him of being a America cheerleader. I appreciate that you went through his arguments and used well-sources studies and expert commentary to address them. It's the kind of level-headed debate that is far too absent in policy discourse today.

👍You are generous! Zaihan has joined the category of the infamous Gordon Chang, who has been predicting the collarpse of China more than 2 dacades ago😂!

This is such a great channel.

good piece. worth watching.

Thanks for making this video. I’ve watched a bunch of Peter’s talks and have found it difficult to find well informed counter-arguments and debates on YT.

Thank you for this video. I have followed Zeihan for a decade. My feeling is that he draws the guardrails of the possible, rather than the absolute guide for the future. That being said, he does address at least a couple of your observations. While the Chinese navy is indeed increased in number of ships, Zeihan argues that these are too short range to protect its shipping world wide. Furthermore, while he does imply that piracy may be an issue, it is local navies, such as India’s, which will cause the problem for China if push comes to shove.

I feel like your argument is solid but didn’t address Zeihan’s points around how: 1. China’s military can’t operate largely further than 1000 NM from shore with their current navy (his point on relying on the US Navy for global trade security) 2. On Chinas food security and farming- you didn’t address the fertilizer inputs argument or how a failed Russian state can’t provide such inputs. It’s nice to hear contrasting perspectives! Good video

I’ll listen to people’s opinions, but my spidey senses always go up when someone tries to get into the domain of predictions

He tells people what they want to hear. Whether its fear or hope he sells both and people are buying.

Zeihan’s statements always seem more like expressions of hope than actual observations.

Spot on analysis!

Well done!

Mr Zeihan is 40% entertainment, he knows we sometimes just want an exciting narrative...

Very good video. The problem I have found with Mr. Zeihan is that he more often than not 1) Comes to a conclusion, and then 2) Finds facts to support his conclusion.

Thank you for your critical video that's providing a broader perspective on that matter!! Similar video about Zeihan's EU predictions much appreciated!

Listen to Zeihan to understand the present (at least when it comes to geopolitics and supply chains), but ignore his predictions about the future. He always cranks everything up to eleven.

This was a really useful video. I was somewhat skeptical of Mr Zeihan's claims already, so it's nice to have a proper economist taking a look and coming to a similar conclusion. You were remarkably respectful given how misleading some of what's he's said is :-) I do wish sensible analysis like yours got as much airtime as sensational analysis like Mr Zeihan's does, but people are suckers for bold claims so long as they sound vaguely plausible.

Thanks, I've often wanted to see videos that have counterpoints to his as he is pretty convincing and it is good to get different viewpoints.

Thanks for this video. It provides an important corrective to Zeihan´s doomsday scenarios.

I'm currently living in a country where it is considered socially acceptable to say something that is either opinionated, subjective, or outright completely wrong, and get a way with it. But at the same time, for someone to fact check and scrutinize based on objectivity is usually considered socially unacceptable. It's frustrating. It makes it all that more refreshing to hear your take. Thank you!!

Yes, videos like this are very important. I've recently begun to follow Zeihan, but have also begun to have reservations. Anytime someone talks about the future with the level of confidence that Zeihan presents, they should be questioned and challenged. Predicting the future is a bit like forecasting the weather... can you say Acapulco anyone? I found this video to be the next level of insight and a level setter for Zeihan. Many thanks.

Well spoken. Warmest compliments. Thank you, sir.

8:10 He says, displaying graphs that show Nigeria’s population increase of ~50% correlating with over a 3x growth in GDP.

Excellent, more analysis like this would be extremely helpful to help me criticise people I know and to find new sources of ideas. Great work!

A refreshingly reasonable and fair minded presentation. Your analysis highlights the quality of your character as much as it does the clarity of your thought. Thank you, and more please.

Thank you for doing this. I don't have time but my instincts tell me all I need to know about Zeihan.

This is really well-reasoned. The only test of Zeihan's predictions is how well they correspond to future reality, but meanwhile you make good points.

Zeihan always forgets that actors can change and adapt. Basically "given the current trajectory, in 10 years X would happen" refusing to acknowledge that changes can be made to respond within that time period.

One thing I'd be interested to hear about with the Japan-China comparison is to what extent Japanese investors had assets in foreign markets which limited their exposure to Japan's asset bubble popping. If I understand correctly China has very strict capital controls on foreign investing compared to anything Japan had in place 40 years ago which could mean Chinese households actually are significantly more exposed to the current bubble.

Very well done.

Very well done, Joeri. Zeihan is quite absolute in his convictions, however a reasonably intelligent reader of his work recognizes that, as you say at the end of your video above, he provides speculative analysis, rather than education in its purest sense. I take many of his conclusions broadly informative, but I've always considered the timing of his predictions to be questionable. Thanks for such a thorough, balanced presentation of your findings.

Zeihan: sensationalism. I mean "collapse in a decade or two" equals a solid early retirement selling books and popping up in every space

“No one can predict the future - least of all an Economist” EE. Economics Explained

Thanks!

good analysis.

Gordon Chang had a 40 years career of calling and failing his predictions that China will fall in the next X years. Where Zeihan has been failing to predict the fall of China for only 10 years, that gives him another 30 years for his career.