Thank you for your honesty and transparency. It's refreshing to see someone acknowledging the harsh reality of rising prices, which are leaving many of us feeling battered and bruised. Despite the dip in the market I stil thank you for level headed financial advice. I start crypto with $11k and since following Jace Nicole Parker for few weeks now I've gotten $19k in my portfolio.
Tradlng crypto now should be wise, but tradlng without an expert isn't advisable. I tried tradlng on my own but keep on losing too. I think I'll give her a try
I’d like to hear your thoughts on why this cycle isn’t following the traditional movements that your model has successfully predicted for many cycles. As of 22/08/2024, we can see that it hasn’t even touched the MA and is showing no strength to do so. The blue or red dots clearly haven’t reached those levels, and we’re now seeing lower highs being printed. In the past, your model has shown dips below the MA, but it would eventually reclaim the MA and break above it. I’ve never seen a cycle where it simply doesn’t touch the MA and then starts heading down. It’s hard to say your model is accurate anymore. I don’t think it’s your fault, though. There are many factors your model can’t account for, the biggest being that we’re in a recession. With an asset like BTC being so closely tied to stock price movements, especially after the ETF listings, it’s difficult to argue that it won’t be impacted and follow the path of the stock market. I’m interested in hearing your thoughts on this.
Thank you so much for this amazing video! Just a quick off-topic question: My SafePal wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (air carpet target dish off jeans toilet sweet piano spoil fruit essay). Could you explain how to move them to Binance?
We have entered a bear market since march 2024 after a break out and 2 continuations. We are in the complecency stage, right before anxiety. Time to short probably
Great Chart and explanation, but is your model also based on Exponential investment into and expansion of peoples portfolios in order to get it to those levels (above $100k) also?
Hi Plan B! I have been following your channel since 2020 and you are a great analyst. I also really like your Stock-to-flow model. I follow you here on RU-vid and Twitter. but I'm blocked on twitter (x) and I can't see the posts. I would be very grateful if you would remove the ban. In any case, I will definitely follow you here and I love your collected analyses. Keep it up! R3nco 😊
Plan B, starting from the day of the COVID drop until now, could you dot plot out what should’ve happened last cycle in gray? Assuming we never had the COVID drop, then us getting to 110 - 120k, finding where we would’ve bottomed had that happened (82% down from ATH I’m guessing because that’s how much we dropped from ATH last cycle, and coming back up to where we are now (I’m guessing the 0.618 fib retrace of 110 - 120k which is what we usually do every cycle.) Then overlay that onto the actual chart? I’m curious to see how off we were due to a world wide pandemic and if we’re back on track since the US ETFs were approved.
If we know short term realized price then we can calculate where the red dot ie realized profit would appear at what price isn't it? I don't see values well on these graphs to calculate that. Anyone has calculated it or where can we see the values?
Hello sir, I have a question.. doesn’t it makes sense if we add a factor of market saturation to the model. By market saturation I mean that the amount of money required for same percentage growth in btc price is not same now as it was in 1 or 2 cycle before, we need more money to reach the same % price growth. More the price, less will be the % price gain, right? Anyway I am always delighted to see your videos.🎉
Man, a 250k BTC would be insane. My bet's on a much lower number, so seeing people like you who go much higher on their most conservative estimate while also backing that up with data, that's kind of refreshing. I hope I'm wrong and you're right.
Thanks for the miner revenue chart addition. Useful incremental insight into the market impact of the halvings. Indeed the only way for miner revenue to recover is for price to double. A completely inelastic supply is very unusual. Let alone a completely inelastic supply that gets cut in half every 4 years. Thanks for your content and your openness and honesty. Pleased to have followed you since 2020. Best wishes.
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Great breakdown of Bitcoin's stock-to-flow model! It's fascinating how it predicts market behavior based on halvings. By the way, I recently learned about rolling over a Roth IRA into a crypto IRA without penalties, which seems like a smart move for long-term growth. Anyone here familiar with that strategy?