As a survivor of 3 crypto bear market cycles, I can say that this model looks very realistic, btc keeps on doing it's thing, people are still people, every time is seemed like spring will never come. Than you regret that you did not buy more. Thank you for your work!
I waited around last cycle after selling at the worst time too! I'd rather keep DCAing and have skin in the game than wait and wait until you're petrified to make a decision.
I say it everytime , this is the only subscription you need for crypto information, Plan B just keeps confirming my thoughts of him with these simple to the point videos for common folk to understand. Absolutely amazing he shares this for free even though plenty of haters out there. Keep being you mate....cheers
Thank you for logically explaining all that. It was clear and concise. Too often, people launch into technical details with the use of jargon. And I get lost! 😂
Thanks for explaining RSI. Indeed the last cycle was an anomaly. The black swan events we can’t predict, but usually follow the same pattern. I value your opinion. Very insightful. Keep sending these videos.
There is no wrong time to buy Bitcoin. The only right move is to buy. At any moment. I personally always buy, at 160 dollars and all the way to 60.000 dollars as well.
Plan B, you are my number one when it comes to understanding Bitcoin. I like how you explain things. I also trust you. I would really appreciate if you could do a video breaking down the different terminology and what we are looking at. Something for the very common Layman. I understand a lot of what you say but when you start using acronyms with your models and refer to indexes and so forth I get lost in the terminology. You always provide pictures and charts and videos which are essential to understanding for me as I'm a visual learner. But if you could explain what these charts actually mean and their acronyms, personally I would appreciate it very much. Maybe what I'm asking is not what you're interested in doing but I just wanted to give you feedback on what I would personally like to see in addition to all the great content you provide already. Thank you for taking time out of your day to make these videos, provide value for us and personally look over the comments. Honestly you're a sweetheart.
Again a great video and combining rsi with halving gives great insight. Even if you’re a non-believer of halvings and S2F, rsi will give you enough data on overbought and oversold point on which you can trade (as in any other financial asset).
Untill now I only followed your Tweeter account, but with your voice that joined, the trust feeling in you and in general crypto sector just got stronger. Thanks for sharing valuable information! 🤜🤛
always dropping knowledge bombs love how you broke down the RSI, especially when it comes to Bitcoin but gotta say, sometimes relying too heavily on historical data can leave us blindsided markets evolve, and while history rhymes, new factors can play in. still, mad props for the deep dive and making TA accessible for the masses keep it 100, bro!
Nice video, PlanB - thanks. Have you considered the following changes to the parameterization of the S2F model? 1) Use forward-looking flow, instead of backward-looking. The rationale behind this is that S2F measures the 'hardness' aspect of scarcity and if an entity wanted to attempt to inflate the supply, it could only try to do so following the forward arrow of time. 2) Use a 14-period flow for daily data. Keeping with the point above, if it was even possible for any entity to flood the network with hashpower, the difficulty adjustment would put a hard limit on how quickly blocktime could be accelerated. When all available data and the considerations above are accounted for, your model has yet to fail! It predicted ~$43k for the 2020 cycle, and it predicts ~$330k for the 2024 cycle. Let's hope it continues to hold! 😎
It's an interesting scenario, but you also have to include the economic situation - Bitcoin never experienced a significant rate increase by the FED. However, there are signs that the FED will start dropping the rates in 2024 which will only fuel the bull market.
I bought my first bitcoins back in 2012 and have watched this market for years. Ive also paid attention to how black swan events affect the market over all. Having spent time reviewing the last bull run and the black swan events like covid as well as the FTX/Alameda stuff that has come to light, I agree with you that the last bull run is not a new normal. Personally I an inline with your conservative prediction as well as your review of the RSI. However I will say that it is a very conservative prediction with the things we know are in the works right now such as the major players pushing for US ETFs. My gut feeling is that we will see a new high that is well above the 300k and may even push 1m to 1.5m as the blow off top. Though I can not back that up with anything other than a gut feeling. Great overview of RSI and thank you for the video.
Great video, as always. Question: when you say it probably won’t be different this time (I agree, it never is in investing); however, have you considered that Bitcoin has only lived in a growing economy with low rates? This halving will be the first time in Bitcoin history that we also have high rates and an economy this weak. I would LOVE your expertise and comment on this. Thank you, Plan B!
I always liked your postings and as we draw nearer to the having I hope you're able to post more. When you say this time is not different, it just seems to me it's some point in the future it will be different , when enough people realize the power and safety of Bitcoin. Now maybe it doesn't happen this cycle, but I believe it could happened as people have become better educated in the space and the importance of the asset is rising.
300K seems optimistic given higher interest rates but who knows, last time 100K target and about 70K was hit so looking at all data points I see 180K-210K in this cycle!
8:50 Not sure if Bitcoin will peak in halving year 2024... It has never peaked in halving a year. Every cycle Bitcoin peaked the year after halving year. I feel like it would just repeat, don't see any reason why it wouldn't.
Hi, Sorry I am from outside the USA, Thanks for all the insights. Life would be so simple if we had solid Leading Indicators to the future. In the statistical world its all about probabilities as you know better than most. 70% accuracy would be wonderful :) In the meanwhile your insight is really great and we thank you for it. In a history data filled world the past is heaven - but the future world its about probabilities. Thanks for narrowing the range of probabilities. Happy trading to all your followers. I see a min of $35,000 to $47,000 in in 2nd Quarter 23 moving to 3/4 x in 12 months. The final figures will be event based at the time. But all all up from now at that stage.
Thank you! I would really appreciate your opinion on a few things. BTC only developing during low interest and recession free time ?. The inverted yield curve at the moment (can acycle be skipped) general thoughts on the current cycle being really different due to macroeconomics factors offering crazy buy chances.
Great video, although I think the tops and bottoms in the RSI are all trending slightly lower so I don’t the next bull peak in the RSI to go any higher than the channel it is in, but we’ll see 👍🏻
True, the predictive human emotions (fear and greed) are constant, but THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT because the players, largely driving that sentiment, are much larger. Before, it was much more speculative and a gamble that Bitcoin would succeed. Now that risk is much lower and more institutions will be jumping in only to seal the deal. We didn't have that before. This time is different. Get as much Bitcoin as you can.
Awesome video. Thank you! Why is the bull market top depicted at the end of 2024 and not 2025? I would think top would occur during last quarter of 2025.
Equally from the above rsi chart, if you look at the dark blue dots in each cycle, you notice that they have lower highs and lower lows. My take from this would be that the next cluster of dark blue dots will be lower than those in the previous cycle.This means imo that the next cluster of dark blue dots could be lower than the light blue dots in our current cycle and similar to what happened in the last cycle. This also means that the dark blue dots in the current cycle could *first* go *down* (with price) to say rsi 42 to 45 *before* turning upwards (with price) in the red dots imo.
well, based on the previous cycles, I would see BTC making new ATH in 2025 not 2024, ass your chart suggests. Much respect and would love to hear your opinion on that. Big fan!!!!
A question: in the first video of the channel, you said that btc will exceed 100k in 2025, here if I understood correctly you say that it should do so in 2024. Did I get it right ? And if so, why this change in forecast? P.s Thanks for sharing your analysis
Mr Plan B sir, i have a question if i may. You dont post often, and your spoken of very highly and for that ill be hitching my wagon to your professional opinion & advice. My question is this.... what happens if something happens to you and im waiting on your advice and it never arrives.?😊
The correlation between the end of the crypto bull run and the Fed announcement is definitely there. Now, whether we can assign causation is another question. However, I believe there was significant causation, and one can compare the price drops of other risk assets and stocks in general for comparison. In other words, in Q4 2021, BTC would have breached 100K had it not been for the Fed announcement and the subsequent rate hikes in 2022. So, I agree with Plan B that the 2020-21 bull run was a bit of an anomaly, especially its abrupt end. The next bull run, 2024-25, we may see a closer tracking of the S2F model, and $300K may not be unreasonable (as other commenters suggest here). Rates in the US will almost certainly drop next year; QE will probably return; there is the Bitcoin halving; and, most significantly, is the introduction of spot ETFs in the US from the biggest asset managers in the world. This is a perfect storm for upward price explosion (probably in Q2 or Q3 2025). I never believed that S2F was invalidated because it didn't properly track the last bull run (at least at the end). It was, rather, temporarily pushed off course because of the change in the interest rate environment. Once central banks, especially in the US, ease rates and bring back QE (which is almost a foregone conclusion, because of the obscene amounts of debt countries have assumed), the conditions will be in place for S2F to once again track the price of Bitcoin. This bull run will be one for the history books. Cheers!
Hey B, isn't the ATH supposed to take place 18 months after the halving? this chart is showing it'd be 6-8 months after it (by December of next year). If that's correct, what changed?
@ 09:54 You have a forecast/estimated high only about 7 months after the April 2024 (estimated) next halvening date. During the previous 2 cycles, the high occurred about 15-17 months after the previous halvening date. Why do you have a disparity in the timing of the high between what occurred during the previous 2 cycles, and this forecast/estimate?
Excellent explaination of the RSI. Just wondering. With the decreasing band within the RSI each cycle, could diminishing returns have anything to do with it?
There's some truth to that idea, but remember that Bitcoin only has a ~$550B market capitalization right now, so it's still just a drop in the bucket of global asset capitalization.
IMO diminishing returns would be too early at current low adoption (~1-2%?). Following the s-curve and Metcalfe's law I would expect returns to slow down after ~50% adoption
Hello Plan B.. On exchanges BTC amounts are dropping, price is stagnant.. What if every BTC buyers of $100k and more are buying from OTC desk and all miners are only selling to OTC desk? I expected exchanges to hold their BTC on spot books to inflate "presence" but what if the decline in BTC on exchanges is due to the latter selling their BTC to in-house OTC desks? will BTC price not drop because their are none to sell?
