In no quirk combat, Katsuki would win due to experience and battle iq in general but at this point Izuku is just way too over powered. It would be like an ant trying to fight a whole ass T. rex.
I... Bakugo can be scaled at max to island ap. Deku has a calc which makes him multi continental. The gap is so big it's like putting deku VS adult Naruto.
Izuku never fought Katsuki at 100% and after the provisional license exam, Katsuki almost lose when he was at 8%. Plus, Izuku has 8 quirks in one, making things more complicated. And Katsuki lack on something: informations. He lost several years of his childhood to study Izuku when he looked to him and analyze him, which made him know his patterns (which aren’t that much complicated, he litterally used the same attacks everytime). So i don’t think Katsuki can win at max power.