These 10 day trends are definitely the best forecasting, and I like that you don't treat us like idiots but still have that weary caution because you know that some tabloid is going to try to scream 'HURRICANE!!!!".
Excellent video as always, no dumbing down from these! Rather typical October weather really...not my favourite, I prefer it crisp, sunny and cold in October, but perhaps that's an indication of my age, when we used to have distinct seasons in the UK! Anyway, let's get through this spell and see what comes next...endlessly interesting!
Hi Aidan, thanks for the update. Would you be able to do a deep dive on what influences the position of the jet. It seems so pivotal to our weather. Many thanks
Very many thanks indeed Aidan. So, it looks as though things aren’t going to be quiet, but then it wouldn’t be UK weather if they were for the majority of the time now would they! Anyway, we can cope, we always do. Thanks again Aidan and to all the Met Office. Save travelling everyone 😊
Having just flown back from a holiday in Turkey where the weather was 30 degrees & blue skies.. flying into Stansted last night was a shock 🌧️🥶 The weather this summer has been particularly under par and disappointing…even for the UK 👎🏼 Thanks for forecast information though 👍🏼
You would be very unhappy indeed if this happened. I get the sentiment and I'm guessing you are half joking? Whilst the Westerlies do bring us low pressure and rain and cool, they also give us the British Isles in all their glory. We are still world renowned for it being a green and pleasant land. Without those Westerlies we'd be in some very deep trouble. Our winters would be extremely cold and our summers extremely dry. If you recall the 40c plus in the summer of 2022 - that only lasted a few days. Despite this, we struggled to cope with it, simply because we're used to a milder and wetter climate. Without the Westerlies, we would've seen no respite - like much of Southern Europe, we would've seen weeks of it. Weeks of temperatures over 35c in the UK would be disastrous.
@@matthewtrow5698 sorry, but I very much prefer proper cold winters and very hot summers. Easterly air stream is colder, but we get finer weather. I also love high summer temperatures, not the horrid wind and rain that we get far too frequently. Maybe I live in the wrong country?
Thanks Aidan. Must be tough being the bearer of bad news weather 😆 😭 - more low pressure and wet on the way. Time is rapidly fading for the chance of a last gasp of mild sunny weather. At least we get a few days to dry off in much of Britain. A grand total of about 3. I'm going to spend as much of it outside as possible - lots of jobs to do outside the house! I'll be treating them as if it's the last chance of 15c and sun for the next 6 months!
A hurricane is a specific type of cyclone which 1. Gets its energy from warm seas and 2. Has an approximately uniform temperature distribution (I.e. it doesn’t have weather fronts). So it’s not a hurricane when it moves over cooler seas and also mixes with cooler air, with weather fronts arising. No rebranding necessary, this has always been the case
I notice the blocking to the north s continuing to push these nasty low pressure systems over the UK. Many of the longer range modes suggest this will carry on though October. Do you agree this is likely or will we revert back to a more typical weather patten?
There’s a chance the blocking to the north will disappear when the stratospheric polar vortex strengthens, further into autumn, but it’s not guaranteed and too far ahead to say at the moment.
Is there a reason why you never mention Ireland, everything is just coming in from “the west” never approaching Ireland or crossing Ireland. And moving into the UK
Because it’s the U.K. weather service, and they’d be treading on the toes of the Irish weather service if they started referencing Ireland and therefor the inferred likely weather for Ireland. I think The met office said as much in a reply on a previous video , but put it in slightly more oblique language than I just did!
@@GrahamRead101🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️ that’s not treading on anyone’s toes. It’s just mentioning the storm’s progress, Seems like there is no issues mentioning the countries to the south and east of the UK , when weather systems are moving up over them, and could affect the UK.
What happened last time? Oh, 1987 ... yes. Things have moved on in forecasting in the last 36 years. Not that it'll make much difference, mind, apart from being able to prepare more. We'll get the added benefit of being able to panic beforehand, rather than being told the night before that everything will be just fine 😆
@metoffice Understand the technicalities that 'The great storm of 87' wasn't a hurricane, but could you explain how it did form and what the correct technical description of that storm is, please? Thanks. 👍
@@davefloyd9443 the October 1987 storm was an extratropical cyclone that formed along a baroclinic zone in the vicinity of the Bay of Biscay, and then explosively deepened as it ran northeast across the southeast of the UK. The strongest winds were caused by a phenomenon known as a sting jet, which can occur in certain types of cyclone. Meteorologists didn't know about these in 1987, but they were conceptualised following research into this storm. It was definitely not tropical.
We once famously had a great storm in October 1987 that had hurricane force winds that Michael Fish famously predicted was not going to happen. I wonder how that was possible given how cold the sea is around the UK?
A very strong jet stream can spin up a deep enough low that it has winds equivalent to a category one hurricane, without it technically being a hurricane (I.e. it’s powered by the jet stream instead of tropical seas and it has a very different structure - including weather fronts, which hurricanes don’t have)
Not suggesting it won’t be stormy next week, just that it won’t be an actual hurricane that causes it. Same as it wasn’t a hurricane in 1987 - they can’t sustain themselves over our cool seas
