@@FlockfantasyHow did you do last year? I had 1 (out of 171 teams) Make it to the 60k finals lol… I placed like 80 tho, won $200 bucks off that $6 ticket
On the first one, I would be super interested to know how often the wr2 or even wr3s on offenses finish in the top 12 and 24. Like how many players who are the wr2 on their offense are viable. How often do they finish top 12? And how does that affect our analysis on Aiyuk/Deebo, Diggs, Waddle, Devonta, Higgins, etc.?
I agree, his point doesn't necessarily illustrate that a WR3 or even WR2 can be supported naturally on a good offense, moreso just reinforces the advice to avoid extremely bad offenses. Essentially, Diontae is a bad pick most likely BUT that doesn't make the other guys "good" picks either. @FlockFantasy it would be interesting to see WR1's taken out of the dataset and re-analyzing whether or not WR2/3's can be supported on a top 5 offense. EDIT: Just want to make it clear, I do agree with your take on mistake #1 as a whole, I would just be interested in how much better those WR2/3's can be then WR1's on bad offenses.
Usually fantasy RU-vidrs make a 15 minutes video about "hOw tO tAKe AdvaNtAGE oF UR DuMbASS LEaguEMaTes". But this was actually pretty well thought out advice. Thanks for the video Flock ✌️
Biggest draft mistake: Not running “your” fantasy team. The biggest gratification in fantasy football is picking your guys and they do well. If you have to ask “who do I draft” or “should I make this trade”, then you’re essentially buying the model kit and having someone else build it. Not nearly as satisfying :)
Along with that, doing enough mock drafts to get a feel for which of "your" guys to take, based on where your own personal deadzones are. If in your own mind you're just as happy with Kyler as you are with Lamar, but there's nobody who goes around Kyler that you actually want, then that frees you up to take a better player earlier and Kyler instead of Lamar and someone you don't want on your squad.
The reason why the three texans WR don’t work is because you don’t predict any other wr3 to be good in a top 5-10 offense, not even some wr2, . Each week one of them is popping off and the other isn’t and you wont know who. The reason dionte is predicted to work is because of the way adam theilin worked last year as about wr17, ppr. Supposing bryce is improving and dionte is better than theilin, there is upside for the adp a player like dionte has. Another example is malik nabers that is in a top 5 worst predicted just like dionte and is going way earlier. So malik works with the giants but dionte doesn’t with the panthers?
It "works" but not at their price points. I believe all three of them are gonna have excellent seasons and Stroud is gonna have a monstrous real life season, but I think everybody can picture that in their mind so clearly that these receivers have been pushed up towards their ceiling as a unit.
You totally misunderstood the guys comment. Researching whether the WR1 in a top offence scores higher in fantasy than the WR1 in a bad offence proves nothing. Of course they do. To prove that guy wrong you needed to compare whether the WR3 in a good offence scores more in fantasy than the WR1 in a bad offence (which I'd strongly assume is almost never the case). Its very unlikely that all 3 Texans receivers will score higher than Diontae Johnson. He was right 👍
To add onto the idea of drafting defenses. Ive always just went after whoever plays the shittiest offense each week. I feel like most big defensive scoring weeks come from the opposing offense playing bad moreso than how good the defense is. Id rather have an average defense going up against one of the worst offenses than the best defense going against a good offense.
I generally agree with this analysis, however there have been multiple reports of Diontae being "featured" in the offense. If true, that's far more value than just usual WR1 usage, which negates some of the good vs. bad offense theory. If he is getting manufactured touches and gets the majority of (admittedly slim) important yardage targets/red zone targets, that is still quite valuable. All that said, in no way should you reach for Diontae. Where he is going on Sleeper, in the 8th round, other available receivers are Keon Coleman, JSN, Christian Watson, etc. I would take guaranteed every week volume with slim upside every draft he fell to me. The bad offense is baked in to the price, and it's only upside from there, IMO.
Great take but here’s the thing. That’s assuming it’s the exact same team and coaching style. I would be absolutely shocked if Johnson didn’t have a solid year because he does have Thielen in the slot to help him get open. The beautiful of football is that someone always shocks and someone always disappoints.
No it doesn’t, even in good offenses the likelihood of a wr3 producing well is low. Might have a spike week here or there but definitely won’t be a consistent producer (jsn last year). Nico, diggs, and tank dell ain’t all producing on a weekly basis. I’d rather bet on Amari Cooper than Dell personally
People think too black and white, there is context to everything. I personally wouldn't even call Tank the WR3 as a texans fan... I liked him better than Nico last year, snap counts also aren't very telling, I am not here drafting Zay Jones over Christian Kirk last year because he's on the field more, or Doubs over Jayden Reed...
The first tip you gave is the same reason that I think Justin Jefferson is not a league winner. Minnesota expected to be a terrible offense, yet some have him as WR3+
@@Asaph437true and we’ve seen (in a small sample size) that jj can still perform with back ups. How that will go with Darnold I have no clue but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a top 3 wr or if he’s a wr2
You hit it right on the spot. Only thing is if you draft a QB like Ruchardson you take a 2nd qb because he will get banged up. I never knew about the handcuffs when you put it like that amazing work.
Really solid video, good reminders, I was waiting until my 2nd to last pick to get a DST, but recently modified my strategy to pick one in round 12 - 13 in the hopes of getting a top 5 unit and then Mason says that's legit.
Any general advice or strategy for a 20 person league full PPR 1 QB, 1 TE, 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex no D/ST or K? It’s my first year in this type of league and I’m a little bit lost on any general strategy. Like is a QB much more valuable here or RB? With 2 flex spots should I target more WR heavily? Any general advice from anyone would be helpful. Thanks!
I generally agree with every point except the philosophy being not drafting handcuff running backs. If Bijan gets hurt for your team, that doesn’t mean your season’s over and you stop caring about your team. I drafted Chubb at the 1.08 last year, but I made an early season move for Breece, drafted well outside of Chubb, and had great playoff performances from Lamar and Njoku. I ended up winning my 14 team league without Chubb. Although I wasn’t able to pick up Jerome Ford and use him throughout the season, making floor-raising moves like picking up handcuffs can get you through the regular season and into the playoffs. Then, it just takes a little bit of playoff luck to win a title. And even if you don’t win, a lot of home leagues pay out for 2nd and third, and it’s still a point of pride to make the playoffs.
How are we feeling about Marquise Brown after his injury? Would it be smart to try to trade him for value or do we think him being a target for Mahomes would be too valuable to pass up? Dynasty League Full PPR 1 QB 3 WR 1 TE 2 Flex 1 Superflex (full defense draft, but not including) AR, Rachaad White, Joe Mixon, Puka Nacua, Jayden Reed, MB, Mark Andrews, James Connor, Curtis Samuel, Dak Prescott are the people currently starting in that order. I have other WRs like Ja’lynn Polk and Darnell Mooney. Some trades have included marquise brown and James Connor for Achane, Keenan Allen or Achane, Michael Wilson and Josh Downs. Any thoughts from anyone appreciated.
In mock drafts(yahoo) i usually end up taking kyren rd 2 and ken walker in rd 4 as my rbs and then load up on the best players at every other position because i can get their handcuffs in the late rounds that will be just as good as them if they go down. Or Conner in rd 5/6. Depends who falls.
If you play in a deeper league, like 14 or 16 players, or there are several IDP spots to fill out, your roster construction through the draft is even more like a puzzle, trying to piece together the strongest unit. In cases like this, look for areas where you can find complementary players, like two WRs from the same team, or both RBs, where you're sacrificing ceiling in order to cobble together a decent floor of modest production with low draft capital so you can use your other draft capital to go elite in other areas. The dream scenario last season was getting Nico and Tank Dell. Obviously that's not gonna happen every season, but the idea is the same, trying to treat two roster spots as one, not caring with guy goes off which week because you have both of them. Doesn't work in a 10-man league but it can be an exploit in a deep league.
I need to ask.... I've been a fan of drafting 2 TEs, but specifically TOP TE's. Ex: After I grab my Rb1 and WR1, rd 3 I grab a "La Porta", Rd 4 maybe a top QB, then Rd 5 I grab "Mcbride" or rd 6 "Kincade". I feel like they have a solid WR 2 upside and you can throw 1 in your flex. Also.... Leaguemates will want to offer u something of value for these top TE's. Can I get your insight on an odd strategy like this?
honestly I don't hate this strategy if you plan on trading one at some point in the season. People will be desperate to fill that hole in their lineup bc the waiver wire will be dead by week 6 for TEs
Mason...love the content ...again..could be me but I feel like we are always talking PPR or non PPR. How about half PPR? 11th pick of 12 teams. Start 1RB 2 WR 3 FLEX. Crazy to go with two top RBs in first and second rounds then slam WR?
Mistake 4 is tough for me to understand why it’s bad… I understand if you’re in a deeper league then you need more RBs and WRs, but for a standard 12 team 2 WR 1 Flex league, I’d rather have my starters be the players I picked when I had the best opportunity to get the best players available, since it won’t matter how many points a player scores if he’s on my bench
TBF, when drafting in 2023, Houston was in the "bad offense" category. There are some benefits to taking WRs in "bad offensive" teams mid/late rounds so it wouldn't hurt as much. high risk high reward I guess
Hi Mason, I have a 10 person .5 ppr auction league. 2 RB, 2 WR, and 2 flex. Should I be taking elite QB/TE still? Or pick stud RBs WRs and pickup Kyler/Daniels with Engram/Njkou type players? Hard to figure out with your pie charts for this instance.
So I’m definitely following your advice. You have done your research. So Adam Theilen was Bryce youngs only target. And he did pretty well. Carolina improved their offensive line and Johnson is younger. Or do you think it was an outlier or thielen is just better. And I would think 1st round picks like Harrison and Nebers are the exception.And no there’s no way I’m taking Johnson over Dell.
I agree with you in general about the WRs on bad teams; however, I think Diontae could be an outlier given the production Thielen had there last year. I think the old man just wore out. Also Pickens was only the WR1 for 4 weeks when Johnson was hurt and he was pretty good even with garbage throwing him the football. I think it's ok to draft WR 1s on bad teams if you are getting good value. Johnson is going in like the 6th round in 14 team mocks for my ESPN league. Curtis Samuel and Palmer are crazy values in those drafts, going in like the 9th and 13th rounds.
The handcuffing RBs one reminded me of when I drafted 2020 CMC at 1.01 (no brainer that year) just for him to be injured all year, and I STILL finished my regular season in first place with Kyler Murray’s breakout year propping my team up. Then got dumpstered in the playoffs 😭
I'll disagree about next to last pick if a Godert, Kmet type ate there I'll take them. At that point I've got 3 wr and 2 or 3 rb depending on bench size
You talk about WR1's in bottom 5 offenses not doing well, but WR3's tend to not do well in fantasy production either. Teams with three WRs in the top 60 picks, the guy that ended up the WR3 on the team averaged 7.7 points. That level of scoring would be WR55 from last year. You point out Diontae Johnson as your example, but last year Adam Thielen was the WR25, and I'd take Johnson over Theilen any day. I also believe that the Panthers will be far better than they were last year, and they could even avoid being a bottom 5 offense, especially considering that the Giants, Patriots and Titans will all be awful this year and I expect them to finish as the bottom three.
Hey Mason, how do you feel about drafting both Cincinnati RBs ? I strongly believe that whichever one starts can be top 10 for sure, but just wanted to get your input on this
I’m kind of confused about the first mistake. Obviously WR1’s on a better offense are better, but wasn’t the comment more so about the difference between a WR2-3 on a good offense, versus a WR1 on a bad offense?
Hey Flock! I’m in two leagues with very odd QB rules. In the one QBs get one point per ten passing yards, and in the other QBs get .04 points per yard, but they also get .5 points per completion. In the second league running backs also get .5 points per carry. When should I be taking a QB in these leagues, and how should I draft RBs in the second league? Thank you!
@@nickmerritt4628 Look at the top 100 scorers in the previous years to give you a baseline of the positional scoring. I'd say the main thing is wrs and tes being surely quite a bit less valuable in both leagues. Given the depth in those positions fading them early on especially getting that elite qb round 3 is probably wise. Possibly even the 2nd round for qb
So i got adonai mitchell as a bench filler but when the dust settled, Rashid Shaheed is still available. Do you think itd be worth it to drop AD for Shaheed as the WR2 for NO? I like AD but i feel like Shaheed has as much or more upside in his position, at the same time, AD has a HUGE unknown factor...
What does the wr3 finish in a top 10 offense ? Thats what ya gotta look at to figure this out yes or bc purse wr1 is better in a good offense compared to bad
i like Deontae in Underdog where he goes but damn lol. thinking you should take him ahead of Dell is pretty funny. has that guy ever watched football before? another good example is Davante Adams. if you had him last year in redraft it wasn't fun. never knew when to start him because the offense was so bad.
When was the last time the WR1, WR2, and WR3 on the same team all finished in the top 50 flex players? 2013 Broncos when broncos had one of the best QB seasons of all time? It's hard for me to see all three texans returning on their value
Can you compare WR2s and 3s on good/great teams to WR1s on bad teams from a historical perspective because that’s the actual decision in drafts. You’re basically comparing Ceedee, Tyreek, or Amon Ra to Diontae which is not really useful.
Last year I think I fished the season with 5 players I drafted and I finished 3rd in my work 12 team. I could care less about players bye weeks. Looking back at the draft i drafted horrible but made up for it on the waiver wire. Got cj stroud, kyren, McBride traded for a better wr3.
Hey mason, let’s say I were to pick Tyreek at pick 4 and waddle came back around to me in round 3 and I felt he was the best option do you feel like I should take waddle or go with a different option even if I felt they would score less than waddle? PPR btw
How do you think I did in my 2 qb super flex league 1. Hill 2. Diggs 3. Mahomes 4. Ekler 5. Keenan Allen 6. Kupp 7. Tua 8. David Montgomery 9.Pitts 10. Brooks ( Car rookie rb) 11. N. Chubb 12. Worthy 13. C Watson 14. E Elliot 15. Gabe Davis 16. Ty Chandler
Yo Mason, appreciate all the work you put in. Any advice on how to remedy my semi-disaster of a redraft? 12 team ppr 2wr 1 flex. 1.06 I took Jefferson, Achane, laporta, and Josh Allen. Great start, then took wr values Dell, Amari cooper, Rashee rice, and Addison… my rb2-5 are the likes of chase brown, benson, charbonnet, and allgeier…. 💀
2 месяца назад
Love the videos Mason! my 3rd rounder to move my 2nd to top 14 should I try to go bijan/breece 10man so whoever is left and rb at 14 or wr since I’m looking to go nabers in 5th and Allen or Laporta in 4th or waddle or do you have any suggestions were to go since I have an extra 4ty from the trade (full ppr espn
Kelce owner but got bowers in the 12th. Figured kelce looked washed last year, bowers looks like he should be great and worst case will be a solid bye week replacement. Rb wise I have Najee, Kyren, bijan, Corum.
Point number 1 is accurate except I think you used a bad example with Carolina for this season. Not a playoff team but they will be much better this year
I just finished my 14 team ppr draft. I was pick 13. I got Gibbs mhj aiyuk mahomes pitts flowers brooks moss as my starters. Have benson corum jameson Williams and others on my bench. Did I do well?
At pick 3.09 in a 12 man PPR would you rather take LaPorta (maybe McBride at 4.04 if LaPorta is gone) and punt QB till later or take Allen/Hurts if available and punt TE later??
Played in a league for years where a D/ST started with 20pts. A top D would score like 300pts in fantasy lol was wild so you took one far earlier than most leagues lol
Hey mason, do you have any opinions on what’s gonna happen with ceedee lamb, I know there’s been some rumors surrounding him and leaving Dallas, worried I shouldn’t have drafted him 1.02 in my 12 man league😂. Thank you
I wonder who you truly make these videos for, is it first time fantasy owners? This is the most logical information people with any knowledge of the game should know. Oh don’t disrespect my guy Mclaurin like that.
George Pickens wasn't a wr1 last szn, Dionte was. Also, almost all the wr1 u listed had terrible QBs. So just looking at their ranks isn't fair.---- I will say the wr1 u pick should vary. Mainly because the number 1 will also draw the number 1 CB and Safety attn from the opposing defense. Which means the wr2 will most times be open more. That's why I'm not so high on diggs. Diggs will draw attn, which will probably help Nico and tank get more space to operate.
#1 is still wrong. there are better WR1 values @ADP than any houston WRs. you're in best ball so the HOU contraption has way more value, but it's still not even sound advice. 100% depends on your league design. not to mention, the data proves that its +EV in PPR to take a WR1 from any top 24 offense (# from prev. year) over a player from a team w/ 3+ WRs drafted in the first 3 rounds. unless you project Stroud to throw for 5k yards & 35 TDs, they're not beating ADP.
@@johndenver7035 Assuming it is 3 WR league you should go GWill.... If it is a 2 WR, should go JT. Whichever position you hit in round 1 hit the opposite round 2 BPA.
