I made a shorter revised version of Ep. 1 (this video) + Ep. 2. More focus on tempo engines and stuff like that. ^^ ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-QCiwH7EjXfs.html&ab_channel=BonelessDota
Thank you so much :D yea Terraforming Mars is a great game to analyse. Yea I'm new to the party. Channels like yours have probably been breaking down the game for years ^^
@@marsuniversity-tm I like you already. xD 15 gen games are indeed the best. The tempo nerds on the discord channel who prefers shorter games are WRONG!
I've only played TM with my friends (always 5p games) a couple of times and obviously, since they have been playing it for much longer, I mostly struggle ... (on the other hand I mostly win at Ark Nova vs them since I'm more experienced than they are at it ...). Found this channel and appreciate your guide. TY a lot :-).
NIce! I just started playing Ark Nova as well. Around 1800 elo was the highest I got this season. Perhaps I will give it another try next season. Really hard to get really good at it for some reason but a fun game for sure ^^ The world is big enough for both games imo ;) Ark Nova is great as it got small hand size as opposed to TM where the hand size can get out of hand sometimes (pun intended). However, it feels like the 3 base conservation projects in the beginning of the game are slightly too strong. Seems to me the best strategy is to mindlessly persue those whenever possible. However so many other cool things you can pull off. Also even after 100 games I still can't play my dumb tiger or something due to some weird 2 water requirement and so on. The requirements are hard to understand sometimes and I keep messing it up. Other than that, great game xD Mars is just as deep and a great engine builder. It's a bit more mathy compared to Ark Nova but still got room for all these creative plays and strats. Usually people who love Ark Nova will also love TM. I hear that Earth is the next good engine builder game we should check out ^^
TM is not an engine-building game. It is a parameter management game. You can build an engine, but if the game ends before your engine pays off, you will get smashed. The exact same principle applies to Splendor, and it’s a lot easier to understand in Splendor. A lot of beginners like to take gems from the first row to “build an engine.” This is usually a losing strategy when you play an opponent who knows how to end the game quickly and efficiently.
Good point about Splendor, I agree on that one. In TM however, I feel some engine is always required. If you go for the long game you need a lot of engine and even if you are all in on terraforming and ending the game quickly, you still need a smaller engine. The difference is is that the engine of a Terraformer consists of more TR (and plants and heat) relavite to the normal stuff (M€-, steel, titanium-prod.) Some sort of engine is always required. Just my opinion but I would still say TM is an engine building game ^^
As a former world rank 1 Splendor player (I play a lot of games) I can confirm that your comparison here is pretty valid @Michael Sperber. Been several years since I played much Splendor competitively (it’s a game that gets a bit boring when you figure out the various wining formulas, kind of like Scythe in that way), but your points here do seem to align with what I recall from my experiences playing Splendor against the world’s best players.
@BonelessDota I think the more confusing factor is what and how people tend to define “engine” for TfM. Some engines are scaling in nature, they need time to pay out dividends and convert profit into points. Some engines, however, can be tempo based and should be thought of as “terraforming engines”. A card like Nitrogen Rich Asteroid is a good example of a terraforming engine “tent pole” card, a card around which props up a terraforming engine strategy. “Engine” shouldn’t be thought of as a purely economic and card advantage based concept, but rather the defining component of a particular strategic archetype. Some engines are defined by card draw and scaling potential, some are defined by economic potential being converted into scoring potential, some are defined by their ability to push and dictate tempo. In my honest opinion this misconception of how to define “engine” is part of what leads to the correlated misconception that playing scaling engine archetypes are the most effective methods to win games (the data collected over the years pretty clearly refutes this notion).
@@BonelessDota That's awesome! I've seen a couple of videos of TM, but none of them was with the deep knowledge that you provide. Keep up the good job!
A few corrections: 1) 20:39 If you are playing with Preludes (which most people are), number of generations should be minus 1 which means 2-player games lasts 10-13 generations on average and 5-player games lasts 6-9 generations (mostly). And even this number might still be slightly too high. Depends on your meta. Some groups like greedy games and some groups like TR-heavy games. For example In high skill games it often happens that people actively tries to close the game as soon as they see a player with a big unstoppable lategame engine. 2) 30:35 My evaluation of Heat in this video is strictly from a engine/VP point of view. I forgot to mention that heat-production of course increases in value if you are going for the terraforming strategy where you try to close the game early. In this case a heat-production in the earlygame could be worth up to 8 M€. If closing the game early is not on your mind, I still think that a heat-production is worth only 5 M€. (4 M€ like I mentioned is perhaps too low. I think 5 is correct) ^^ Same thing with plants ofc except plant production is always solid regardless of your strategy. 3) It would seem some of you got the impression I only care about M€-prod (my fault prob). IMO M€-production is a little worse if you are going for the Terraformer Strategy or predicting the game will be short in terms of generations. (I talk about the Terraforming Strategy in ep. 3 part 1). In general the combo of card-draw + card-discount is way stronger than M€-prod. (ep. 4 part 2 is a video all about this). Thanks for feedback, keep it coming :D
10:48: except if you have trans-neptune probe or beathing filters and you need science tags to unlock powerful science cards. Also there are dust seals and colonizer training that have a maximun condition on global parameters.
Yea good point. Naturally, you play them sooner if you need the tags. Actually if you want to you can check out ep. 2 tip 15. (Just released it). I talk about colonizer training camp and stuff in line with what you are saying. Good point though, thanks.
What other board games do you like to play? Would love to see more series like these. (E.g. I think Gaia project fits well with your playing style -- engine building with pure math calculation)
Played a lot of wingspan too. Got vanilla WR before the expansions came out and people starting playing multible seats at once. It's on my channel as well as a little more educational wingspan content and I made some more wingspan content on Legendary Tactics' channel. Other than that, I haven't covered any other board games yet. I haven't tried Gaia Project yet, but heard good things about it. However, I play a bunch of other games. My faviourites at moments other than TM are Dune Imperium, Concordia, Raiders of the North Sea, Hansa Teutonica, War of the Ring, the Ganz Schön games to name a few. Possibly I will make content like this on other games like Dune Imperium in the future, but won't be for a while. Cheers btw :)
So, at the point where you do some analysis of Soletta and Mohole area and it really highlights one of the errors in your analysis process, and it’s the same kind of error presented in other articles on other sites such as A Quantified Guide to Terraforming Mars on BGG: the efficiency metric being used is incorrect because it doesn’t account for game duration, and, by extension, inflation and compounding interest factors. Consider baseline evaluation for Soletta, 35 credits to keep, 3 to play, and assume 10 gens of production (this would roughly correspond to maximum expected game duration for top level play). For an upfront cost of 38 credits you can expect to acquire 8 points via TR bumps (9 if you claim the additional heat prod bonus from the temp track) over that time span and rebate 28 credits from TR money production as well. We can of course calculate for compound interest and account for inflation if we want to, but this is often more math than needs to be done to see how efficient a card like Soletta is at baseline values. Just given the basic math outlined we can see that in an 11 gen game where Soletta is played on the first gen that 8-9 points will be acquired for a total cost of only 7 credits when we subtract the “rebate” or “tr prod” value from the original investment cost. This is an astonishing efficiency ratio and can absolutely be game winning on its own if the game pace is fast enough that opponents can’t match scoring rate in the short term. Soletta in the opening hand, in the data we’ve collected on high level play, has one of the best overall win rates of any card in the game, perhaps even the best win rate of any single card at this point (not sure, haven’t looked at Anthracite’s data on this point for a while so it could have moved up or down a bit on the list). Correct evaluation of efficiency is not only a function of credits spent per point for the current generation, but also every subsequent generation of a game and this is one of the most common errors in analysis and evaluation I’ve seen over the years from less experienced players. There’s a reason my first article on BGG was about how top level players prefer power production over most other forms of production, and it’s because heat is a bit less flexible than other production resources (in terms of how it can be used to score points) but heat bumps also are extremely naturally efficient points that also provide excellent game control and an ability to directly dictate game duration toward an advantageous end.
First of all thanks for the feedback, I'm soon to make an episode called feedback so this is great! :) In the same spirit, do you have a link to the stuff you talked about? "Anthracite's data" and the article you made? I already found "A Quantified Guide to Terraforming Mars" on BBG, I'll make sure to give that a read. So 2 things I did wrong here. Firstly, while I did mention a few times that heat-prod. is good if you are going for Terraforming, I failed to make it clear when I was talking about Soletta and Mohole Area. Secondly, I estimated a heat-prod. a tat too low. Funny coincidence that you are bringing up heat-prod. while I'm currently editing a shorter revised version of this where I'm correcting these two errors I made. In the old version (this one) I put a heat-prod to 4-5. I can see the article says 6. My current view is this: Strictly from an engine/VP point of view a heat-prod = 5 M€ but if you wish to close the game early (or atleast have control of when the game is closing). Then it's worth a little more. Would you agree with this? Or is your view like the article that a heat-prod. is always worth 6 M€? Also the coincidence does't stop there as I also just released this video (link) where I'm building engine with Soletta and Mohole Area. So I'm definately aware that heat-production is good if your intention is to close the game (even though I failed to make it clear in this video) But if you have no interest in closing the game fast, then I'm still not convinced yet. ;) If closing the game is not in your interest I'm still currently on 5 M€ for a heat-prod. (which means that soletta and Mohole Area are average cards) but again if your want to control/close the game, in this case, I'm willing to concede that these cards are above average. What's your take on this? Cheers ^^ ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-QbnSWu6Jwc8.html&ab_channel=BonelessDota
I think that’s all on the right track, and it will continue from there. One thing I’ve definitely learned thus far being at the forefront of competitive theory progression for TfM for the last 5 or 6 years is that we continuously have to redefine our thinking as more and more data gets collected. How much more is a tempo advantage worth in credit value? Well, we don’t know yet. Lol. We’ve got a ton of games and data and we can see a correlation emerge but it’s tough to nail things down to specific numbers or isolated solutions. TfM is nifty in that way where the game itself emulates the existence of the wave function. We can say with certainty that heat production is much more valuable for rush strategies, but to define by how much or identify a break even point requires knowledge of a specific game state to even be able to calculate. What we can at least say from a statistical standpoint is that control over game duration is a critical factor in determining a winner and a monopoly over scoring on a particular track can generate an advantage in being able to dictate game duration in some significant percentage of scenarios. Part of the hard part (maybe the absolute hardest part even) in my opinion when it comes to making educational content for competitive TfM is that there is so much complexity to discuss and not all of it will be applicable to players of all skill levels, but each component aspect of some knowledge set is required as a foundational layer for the next set of more complicated tenets or principles. Sifting through all that, making it come out coherently, and providing neither too much or too little information is just plain difficult, so don’t be worried if older videos don’t fully represent your current thinking or understanding of the game, we’ve all got some older content out there that we constantly revamp and update too as we learn more and collect more data. Updating things is part of the fun of the process sometimes.
@@jeffreyculbert2093 You raise some good points. And yea I came to the same conclusion. I'ts impossible to create a guide for the general public and high level games. Mine is aimed more towards the general public. Is there a database somewhere? How many generations on average based on player number? Stuff like this? If such a database exists, you seem like kind of guy who would know where it is :)
Any other nice tips or advice I didn't mention in this video? This is the first video in a Terraforming Mars strategy guide video series. I plan on releasing new videos every other day so the next video should be out in 2 days. Enjoy :)
Good video. 👍🏻 Question: Why are you "evaluating" TR higher in the end of the game (and lower in the beginning)? Or maybe I'm misunderstanding the terms used. I'd think a TR is more "worth" in the beginning of the game since it boosts your income. In a 10 gen game reading TR in the first round, you get the 1-p-score and 9 mc income. Vs just the 1 p score and no income in the last gen. Or is this what you are actually saying?
Yea TR is really hard to value as it consist of 2 fluent components (M€-prod and VP) and the value of these also changes throughout the game. But few weeks after releasing this I realized the same as you are saying here. TR are indeed slightly better in the earlygame and slightly worse in the lategame as the M€-component is worth nothing towards the end. So you are right and I was wrong here. But TR doesn't drop that much in the lategame as the VP component becomes worth more as the game progresses. Sooner of later I'll make an ep. about what everything is worth where I clean up this bit as I feel like this graph is slightly wrong. At this moment it feels like TR should start at 8 and drop to 7 or 6 near the end of the game. That being said, what you're asking about is super nerd stuff. The observation you made is pretty deep so I imagin youre one of the better players. But for the average player this graph is good enoguh and for the average player the notion that a TR = 8 all throughout the game is all you need to know ;)
Random card is worth 3 M€ unless it's 2-player game then its 4 M€ imo. If you are talking about review of the project cards, that will be a while I'm afraid. January I think ^^
@@BonelessDota but why is worth 3 or more in Ur perspective? I value random card around 2gld, in most scenarios even less then 2. I understand, that cards cost more if u have proficiency in metals, but stil there plenty of useless cards for u, is that clever to pay for that lootbox?
@@mbuzaev Well if it's only worth 2 M€ for a random card why would you ever pay 11 for restricted area to get an action that is exactly drawing a card for 2 M€? In my opinion it's worth 3 M€ on average. Sometimes it's exactly the card you need which means it's worth a lot more and sometimes it's a dead card worth 1 (cuz you can sell it again). So I think 3 M€ on average is fair except for 2-player games where it's worth 4. :)
I was talking about a 2-player game here so definately yes ^^ In 3-player games I would still take the 24 M€ in the earlygame. In 4- or 5-player games it is not so clear. Depends on when in the earlygame. If it's in gen 3 or 4 probably the 15 VP would be preferred (in 4- or 5-player games).
Can we stack the deck as desired? If so, then yes, we can actually terraform the entire planet single handily on gen 1 with the correct set up using nothing but our gen 1 resources. It’s certainly possible to score a lot more points than that, though the conditions required are pretty unrealistic for an actual game against competitive opponents.
@@jeffreyculbert2093 Yep with stacked deck closing and getting a high score is possible for sure. A few people did the theorycraft deck I think, myself included. And you also it sounds like ;) Although I haven't seen an actual list. Would be curious to see if it is similair to my list.
I didn’t actually do the theory crafting for the gen 1 wins, it do recall the GitHub post in the community about one and there was also a BGG post where Point Luna(?)’s possible gen 1 ending set up was laid out. Iirc the GitHub post had Credicor for its solution. I remember thinking this stuff was pretty nifty when I read them, and that the people who worked out the actual solutions had a lot more patience than I do to have worked them out all the way. Not perhaps the most practical knowledge for a competitive setting, but still incredibly interesting to me from a coolness point of view. I think the BGG solution might still be up, the GitHub from that era though seems to be relatively defunct, much the same as the original discord server related to the steam playing community is basically dead these days. Hodge’s server kinda wound up as the principal competitive community collective by the end of 2020 and I’d bet Covid had a fair amount to do with creating an environment where this occurred organically. But there are definitely some cool gems like these gen 1 end solutions from older communities still floating around if a person’s willing to dig around a bit.
@@jeffreyculbert2093 It's funny we have several ongoing conversations. I love it though so thanks ^^ Yea I found 1 post on BBG just now. I did something similair before colonies came out, so it's outdated now. A while back I made an updated list to take into account the newer cards. Would be fun to compare to others who made a similair list. I plan to make a video on this (ep. 20) but with my slow pace it will be a while before that one comes out.
2-player games (with Prelude and no other expansions) should last 9 to 11 generations. Rarely 8 in a fast game or 12 in a very slow game. If a game lasts longer than 12 generations, at least 1 player has made very serious errors.
Share your love in TfM and agree in many ways. However I do not think that M€-production is the key. Have had games with my skilled friend who had 50 M€-production in gen 10, about 25 in gen 6 and still lost. Sequencing, timing and choosing the right cards seem more important to me. Also usually follow your corporation skills. It is great to get floater cards etc. out early as they can give you many points that you do not have to pay for any more after the card is in the game. Opponents spend the money on VP whereas you can either do the same or fill the planet. Can be the same with high plant production and well-placed cities. There is not one single way to success. That is one reason for loving this game so much.
Yep I couldnt agree more. I hope I didnt give the impression that M€-prod. is the only way to victory. Sequencing and timing will be discussed in part 2. (should be up the day after tomorrow). Cities is idd powerful aswell. (Ep 3) and I agree with you that synergy is a lot more important than M€-prod. Usually card discount combined with card-draw is much more powerful. Appreciate the comment, good point and yea I also share your love for this game ^^ Cheers.
I think your games lengths are a bit on the high side. I've found 2-player games average 9-12 generations. Ultimately, the game is about winning, not entertaining your opponent, so closing the game as early as possible, if your opponent's build engine is stronger than yours is a very valid strategy. Understanding pacing, and being able (and willing) to act upon the pacing considerations is key to victory. While you cover this in your scenario section, your pro-engine bias comes out pretty strongly :)
Yea first of all I should have mentioned that my game length estimation is without preludes. And even then you might be right they are a tad too long. With preludes I still have 2-player games of 14 gen sometimes though. It can happen if both players feel they have a good shot in the lategame or you can help it happen yourself by holding back heat or plants to ensure the game goes long. (Chapter 3 strat 1). Also you and a few others got the impression that I think greedy long games are the only way to play the game. It's true I prefer long games as they are more fun. But I'm aware that closing the game sooner is something you must do sometimes to punish the greedy guy and win the game. I often play to close the game if my opponent has the bigger engine. I talk about the terraforming strategy also in chapter 3 strat 2 ^^
Probably still high in terms of estimated duration. On steam, top level 2p duels amongst 2k and 2.1k rated players rarely go longer than 10 gens, with or without preludes (I was averaging 10.4 gens per game as the world rank 2/3 player towards the end of 2019 and this was without preludes at all). 3p with similarly skill participants tends to be more like 7/8/9 gens, and 4p rarely ever gets past gen 7. Average game duration is perhaps one of better indicators of skill level as the best players in the world all play fast. Really, really fast. The best method to reduce the impact of chance and RNG on the outcome of a game is to limit the total number of cards seen by all players, and the top level players want to give opponents the fewest opportunities possible to draw into a lucky out that might help them recover from an unfavorable game state. It’s a bit of a meme at this point, but pretty much all the top level players today consider any game that goes longer than 11 gens an abomination where either both players had horrifically awful draws, or, more likely, players made significant mistakes that prevented one or multiple parties from ending the game on time. When playing all expansions the support for scaling engine strategic archetypes is enhanced so there’s greater incentive to play longer duration strategic archetypes and this leads to average game durations being a bit less than a full generation longer in duration on average, but even then the average duration captured by our data worms for high level matches is lower than your own expectations stated in this video by about a generation or so.
@@jeffreyculbert2093 You make a good point, I'll include it in the revised shorter version video. You guys are prob correct I overshot nr. of gens a bit.
Yea Turmoil usually divides the crowds. Some people like it the most and some people prefer to play without it. Personally, I can see both sides of the argument. While Turmoil is a good expansion imo I can also see how people don't like that it adds to the overall playing time and also it introduces a bit more RNG as sometime an event benefits you greatly and sometimes it the opposite. And even though you can see the event ahead of time, usually you cannot do anything to avoid disaster. That being said, Turmoil is a lot of fun I think. And yea btw it was just a joke for a cheap laugh. I actually do like Turmoil ^^ I like all the expansions including Venus ;)
xD Yea I love this line. I remembered that I had stolen this line from somewhere but couldn't remember from where and just now it hits me that the line was also used in a Hollow Knight video my mossbag called "the mostly complete lore of Hollow Knight".
