An addendum to #6 (quitting early when winning and playing long when stuck): When on an upswing playing far less volume than when on a downswing. I've watched poker friends have an upswing and then get really lax about volume during or after the upswing. A big problem arises when you come back to the grind and it doesn't go well and you haven't won any money in weeks or months and suddenly feel a pressure to win quickly to pay for life expenses. Don't overindulge in rewarding an upswing by taking too much time off because it will inevitably lead to a stressful return to the grind when it doesn't go well.
Absolutely, great point. I think I missed this because I'm personally the opposite (luckily), but I've had many friends with this issue. I might need to make an addendum video!
I'm quite guilty of this myself. Not only do I have that tendency to always want to "book a win" but when I do win my volume decreases heavily at the very moment I should be pressing myself to move higher. Having retired from poker, it's a lot easier to look back and notice these inefficiencies for what they were.
This is a great point Another factor to consider or to go about it, is to plan your hours ahead - so you know when you're expecting to stand up (unless the game is really that good)
@@seanlayton9029 right... this! Expect to book losses, and ignore the haters who comment about "hit and run" Cash games are cash games, make your own expectations and don't listen to others in the same game 😉
Thanks Phil, great advice as always. I think another aspect of the "memorizing strategy" topic that a lot of people miss is that solvers calculate the highest EV strategy *assuming* your opponents are playing optimally, which is never the case, since no human plays perfect GTO. Deviations based on your opponents' mistakes and other live intangibles is one of the most critical drivers of being a big winning player IMO. Yes, the solver strategy may be the least exploitable, but it rarely wins the most playing against the live field. Versus weak opposition, the importance of not being exploitable also goes down, since your opponents are not adjusting their own strategies in response to your deviations. Two other I would add to the list: 1. Playing when the games are bad, not realizing someone can easily go from a crusher to a losing player simply depending on who's at the game (e.g. a Friday night 5/10 when the game is filled with drinking recs vs Monday afternoon when it's all pros/regs). Another piece of this is being able to objectively and continuously assess your own skill level vs. that of the other for-profit players in the game. 2. Mentally booking your results mid-session, in either direction. This has been huge for my mental game -- I try hard to not even think about my results of the session until I'm leaving. I clearly keep count of my stack, but it's purely to be aware of stack depth rather than think about how much I'm up or down. Say you win a huge pot early, if you keep thinking "I'm up $X and this is going to be such a great session!", you're just setting yourself up to play passively and go on major tilt if you lose a big pot and get 'upstuck'. On the other hand, if you're down, staying grounded mentally and not wallowing over the amount of money you're down at that moment helps you keep playing your A game. As you suggested, just set your stop loss in advance, then in-game, don't even think about being up or down. Nothing is final until the chips are in the rack.
people often listen to kenny rogers "the gambler" and when he says "you never count your money when youre sitting at the table" theyll think wtf is he talking about of course you should do that. they dont realize that he is talking about your point #2. its basically like dont count your chickens before they hatch. you should still know how many eggs you have
Great advice, as always! Thank you! My biggest mistake of those 10 (although I am a student-amateur, not an aspiring pro) has been the learning by yourself issue. There were moments in my learning where I was playing well, earning well, and felt as though I didn't need to learn from others around me. I didn't notice that my abilities had plateau'd and for several months my earnings went stagnant and I grew frustrated that I was no longer performing up to my expectations. I finally kicked myself out of this bubble after 5 months.
Just dropping by to say I really enjoy the content on your channel Phil, I'm not a gambler but I became fascinated by this amazing game so thanks very much.
Awesome! Thank you so much! I’d love to learn more about how my content appeals to non-players. What about it interests you? What type of stuff would you like to see more of?
@@PhilGalfond Cheers, Phil. To me (no limit) holdem is the perfect intersection of mathematics and psychology. I love hearing about leveling and the inferences a player can somewhat comfortably make about other players based on certain things they do. With limited information the exact same action can mean many things depending on the type of player and their mindset in that moment. Additionally players of a certain type can even craft their play to create a separate table image for that session which can then be exploited. At your level It's probably impossible to create an image from scratch but playing random people in a casino what could an unknown person do to set up a nice double up or possibly multiple double ups? I'd love to hear more about adjustments someone can make to exploit adjustments other players have made in response to a style of play. Also, perhaps something on how someone could exploit the table image of being the weakest player at the table, in terms of having players seek to isolate them, and how to spot when that is happening (whether it's people being more aggressive from certain positions or bet sizing decisions they'd make). Also if someone has intentionally or unintentionally earned the image of being a weak player what kind of moves would shatter that image profitably and how could someone then react to the new perception to exploit opponent re-adjustments? I guess I'm asking what liberties would good players take if they thought the other player wasn't very good, and how can they be punished for that, as well as how can their subsequent adjustment be exploited? Are there 'mistakes' a player could intentionally make cheaply early in a session that would pay off when a good player gets too aggressive thinking they've figured out their level, and from your experience how long would it take a good player to make a subsequent adjustment after the hero makes correct plays in contradiction to their earlier style?
@@PhilGalfond I'm a huge fan of poker so your content is relevant to me but I don't like coffee and I still love watching James Hoffman's RU-vid channel. I think being friendly, clear, professional and able to communicate effectively to watchers are key factors that appeal to viewers no matter what the subject IF the speaker is knowledgeable/enthusiastic as you are!
Hi @philgalfond really enjoying your channel having subbed recently... would love to hear your views about how safe playing online is.. what with bots, ai, collusion, superusers etc Keep up the good work, it's tremendously helpful ❤
I have played professionally for 10+ years and done number 10 not one but three times! Big changes in my life in combination with running good got me every time. I dont know how long I will keep playing but I really hope I wont fall into that trap again for the remainder of my career
For anyone prone to tilt, I've found an excellent way to snap out of it is to just force positivity at the table. For example last night I lost a 400BB pot with top set to a runner runner flush draw that floated the flop with air. My first thought was "you idiot" (i'd never actually insult someone), but then the man actually apologized for the suckout. At that moment I turned around and said "hey man you play hands like that to win big pots like that! Nice hit". I then joined in the conversation he was having about sports or something to just "make friends" with him and immediately I felt myself relax and regain my composure. I finished the session with a 275BB win after all of that.
This is a great video, and is the reason I tend to minimise playing online. Online I am a consistent winner at one level, but if I have a big downswing I tilt and jump up in stakes and torch my roll. Less of a problem in live poker.
I found out your channel 2 weeks ago, right after I lost all of my bankroll because I was just increasing my buy-ins in order to recover my losses during a really long and painfull downswing. From everything I've seen on youtube you seem the most honest, calm and straight to the point guy in this platform. Im loving your content, its helping me to keep my head in place and my feet on the ground. Im learning a lot from you, thank you!
I’m sorry to hear that you found me after that happened, but I’m very glad you’re here and I hope to help you make better decisions in the future and find the success you’re looking for!
Great content. I remember you filming a heads up video years ago where you recommend to always be more aggressive than the opponent at the start, even with air, to psychologically weaken them. 2 weeks ago, everyone except 1 guy left my cash game table, we doubled the blinds and i won 2k in heads up due to this tip. Thank you.
Really love this I struggle with quitting early when I win x amount my min for day. I’m now on my first downswing since playing for profit and have been running bad compounding that crazy unlucky bad beats over and over this month
you are still my favorite poker teacher and one of my favorite persons in poker in general. Been watching your videos back in bluefire poker days and then on runitonce. Nobody can explain theoretical concepts so clearly, convincingly and practically. Said it before selfishly wish you were an MTT player to make more of those videos since I am, but any video you make especially about bigger concepts like this are really valuable. All the best, hope this channel grows alot.
Nice video thanks Phil - I’ve one to add…focus all or most of your energy on strategy or improving strategy and little or no energy on building your poker business
Such an awesome video!! I sent it to a few of my friends and I’m probably going to spend the night watching your RU-vid content!! Best of luck on your challenge!
Great video. I've struggled with trying to make poker friends that I could talk poker with. I've been playing poker for 25 years give or take, I have 2 long term friends that play poker. Neither one of them care much about talking poker. I don't know if I'm unlucky 🐈⬛ in meeting 🤝 those kinds of people or maybe I'm not 🚫 good at making friends with those kinds of people. But I feel like I've tried hard to find a poker friend who thinks about the game. Reading books and watching videos is the closest thing I've found to having a friend like that.
The Martindale strat only works on games which have EV that are at or above a 100%. Roulette makes you think it only has 40 outcomes but in fact there are 41. There is that sneaky green zero as well. So regardless if you bet black or red you only have a 20 out of 41 chance to win. Hence a EV below 100, hence no dice with the Martindale strat.
Fantastic content as usual on this channel. Thanks, Phil! I hope you do sthg about just how bad variance can affect even winning players. Apart from pokerdope variance calculator, I very rarely hear or see anything about how bad it can be and it could torpedo most players' bankrolls.
Yep, I always do a max 5 hour session a day. If I loose my money before the time is up I call it a day but as long as I got something to play with if the 5 hours is done I'm done. Gotta have the mental discipline.
Phil, thank you for this video! Mental comfort is a huge deal. Just the way you convey things is incredible. Great player, coach, and mentor. Do you still have the slides from the second floor to to first at your place? Awesome content!!!
I really wish I could find people to study with, but the biggest problem is that we all see each other as the competition and rightfully so. Nobody wants to reveal their thought processes for fear of it being used against them when we happen to end up at the same table together.
Sports gambling on the side has stunted my poker growth. My bankroll management when it comes to poker is brilliant and I'm proud of that. Though with sports I have no discipline. I know i should completely give it up, but its been a struggle. Anyone else dealt with that?
hey Phil love the content, was wondering how you found your grind house in vegas? I am a young pro and find that majority of american mtt pros are older with families.
Glad you're loving it! Back then (2005), twoplustwo forums were the main place to talk poker. I met everyone there. Most online players were young at the time, too. That's not the case anymore. So, I don't have great advice for you here. Sorry!
Hey Phil, you mentioned quitting early and playing long. I tend to play my A-B game when I'm at 100bbs but when I get to the 300-400 depth I get lost in a lot of spots. So often I'll actually give back say 50-100 bbs playing scared. This obviously is impacting my win rate and possibly capping my big winning days. Any idea how I can combat this?
If you're playing online, then just pick a max stack size, something like 140bb is usually best, and just leave the table and open up a fresh one when you hit that threshold. This isn't incredibly uncommon. If you want to learn how to play better deep stacked then you should seek out learning materials on how to do so. There is definitely a lot to it so it's not something someone would be able to explain in a few paragraphs.
How long have you been playing? Ignoring the strategical differences in play, I really think this is just a comfort thing. I too used to hit n run a lot. I'd buy in for $500 and quit at $800. As a result my monthly profits were usually no more than 4-5k, which didnt leave a lot of breathing room for downswings. Once I started buying in deep to 1k I immediately found myself sitting on 2-3k stacks regularly without breaking a sweat and now average 8-10k months. I can also stomach multiple 2-3k losing sessions without it wiping out an entire month of profit. The mere thought of leaving with less than 100BB profit feels absurd now. It still happens when i feel my game deteriorating but I am finally comfortable with long deep sessions so long as I feel I'm playing well. What really set this off for me was just getting comfortable having all those chips in front on a regular basis. Suddenly $1500 didnt seem like a big deal anymore once I began starting with $1000. I used to be terrified to have 300BB's in front. It also finally gave me the confidence to really push my edge and get in there with 3betting suited connectors and such so that I could find spots to win big pots. It also opened up my game to executing legitimate big bluffs since I now had enough chips to exert proper FE. In a nutshell, just start playing deep man! You'll get used to it eventually. Just make sure to adjust your style of play to a deep stack style, you're no longer looking to play for stacks with just TP or AA.
Hi Phil, I learned so much and also reminded of what not to do. I study alone and now realize the importance of having poker friends to study with. Until I can make some local poker friends would poker forums and discord be the 2nd best way to collaborate with others? Is there another way I’m not thinking of? Thank you again.
Every hand is pure luck, 50/50 choice pre flop is determined with 100% skill resulting in a flop based on pure luck, with a 20% choice determined by 100% skill, followed by a turn based on pure luck where you will have another 20% choice of 100% skill followed by another river of pure luck followed by another 20% choice of pure skill. So basically you have to make a 100% skilled based decision 4 times possibly more depending on the choices of others made on the same pure luck distribution of basically the most random thing on the planet.
love to play but and honestly you seem like a good person but i dont understand how people play with some of these poker nits that only go in with aces read these strategies and just make poker so boring . this is what i say i will play with these nits but everybody antes every hand plus small and big blind and the pros can wait for aces good luck with your goals .One more question what do you think of hustler casinos stream im curious on your view thank you
Speaking of collaborating and growing, you should reach out and do a colab with another big poker streamer/youtuber! Go over some big game hands, or both of you look at a hand blind and say what you would have done in that situation then compare ect. Would be really cool to see. Also for anyone not subscribed, thousands of people used to pay $50 a month to see Galfonds videos, the fact this stuff is free is insane.
Phil would you be willing to do any one on one coaching? Obviously for a fair hourly rate. Maybe it’s not worth your time but figured I’d ask. I have 15 years of experience but been taking the game more seriously the past few years. I think I have reasonably good instincts of when I’m ahead and when I’m behind. I’m definitely a winning player but I know I could use work on emotional control when you do run into that cooler that will inevitably occur. Last summer I was taking a shot at the bigger game in Texas 5/10 and I flopped kings full 6’s only to get it in on the flop versus AK to loose out to running aces. (Ouch!) I dusted off a decent bankroll after this because I didn’t chill out and reset. Understanding I did everything right it’s just how it ran out. Truth is you always want that call. I’m not asking for any sympathy just given some backstory. Anyways I enjoy your content and definitely feel I could learn from your experience.
Ya variance can wipe you out if you don't handle it right.. Just went from +6k SS to -4.2k in 1.5 months and went on tilt and additionally wiped out entire 20k roll I'd built up, continuing to run bad and playing too high while not setting stop loss in cash and spins.
I'm sorry 🙁. Not moving down when you're losing is such a big one. I hope you can move down and build back up. Stay patient and don't aim to get it all back soon. Good luck!
i'd be willing to bet there's a strong correlation rate on those that study the hands they won and being a winning player, as almost everybody doesn't do that, and like phil says when you won the pot it's a happy experience, and humans aren't good at being critical thinkers about stuff that's going well. they assume things SHOULD go well and/or just want them to that much and it's status quo in their minds when they do. there's a lot of research noting how the people that do the best in projecting future events correlate very strongly with depressed persons; this i'd think is since for depressed persons nothing is ever going well (either objectively or they feel that it isn't) so they put in far more work into why this might be, and leads them to simply be more educated about their surroundings or whatever it is they're investigating. they likely also aren't as likely to be derailed by hope or thinking things "should" be something good, so it's really up to them to carve out what's really going on, even if that's good (i.e. the depressed person is far more likely to not think when something is going well that they deserved it or that it will remain good for them). basically their critical thinking takes less time off and they give more effort to improve compared to average to happier humans. this doesn't make them happier by any means i'm sure, ignorance is likely the ONLY path to bliss assuming memory and certain mimimum levels of critical thought. this isn't me saying non depressed persons can't be good critical thinkers, just that it's probably a lot less likely you'll be one of those and continue to remain one of those if you are by default happy about almost everything all the time.
roulette is not random just like a pool shot when you break its not random, we just have a hard time measuring the variables in-between regarding the speed the angle the impact so many variables too measure and we cant so we think of it as random. roulette very beatable if you have patients and understanding of math. if the ball falls on number 0 and the last 8-10 spins have all been on one side of the table and the ball never travels more than 20 spaces from the previous number it was just on . so when u count the spins and the distance between the spins meaning how many numbers did it pass to get to the next number if its at 0 and it goes to 18 or 17 the ball travel a total of 15-16 spaces, and if you see on the board the ball has been falling short like 0 to 27 than 27 to 3 than 3 to 15 than 15 to 27 than 27 to 23 23 to 7 7 to 15, all these spaces are about 8-15 when you start counting how far this ball actually travels you will realized there is good data set on maybe 8 to 13 or 5 to 10 spaces from the number it was just on, so now you just gave yourself and edge against the house. and if you stick with it you will win in the long run, i won over 10k playing everyday for 30 days straight. its when i got comfortable and change the strategy and felt like a god is when i lost, i stop counting numbers between spins started over leveraging my bets walked in with 5x my original buy ins, and boom recipe for disaster, discipline is the key to success in the long run, understanding you can be the best at anything of gifted at anything and without discipline it will agate too nothing
Just about the charming person thing - shouldn't we be friendly and try to make a good atmosphere at the table especially when there are recreational players? That doesn't make me a psychopath right? :D
I played my second ever live PLO tournament. I was in the big blind with Jc8c66 and about 75k with blinds at 1k/2k. I completed, or perhaps even just checked vs three or four limpers. Flop is Tc 6c T. Active LAG player on the button bets 6k, which is near pot. SB raises to 15, and I just called. My logic was let the LAG guy call with a bad T or clubs. Button does indeed call. Turn is 5C. I lead for 30k, hoping it looks like I have clubs and don't know what I'm doing. Button folds. SB calls. River is a Q. I only have 30k or so behind. I check. SB bets and I call, and he has the QT. I think the primary mistake I made was not raising the flop. What do you think? But then as played, can I ever fold river? He has to have me beat doesn't he. I could have walked away with 15BBs. I remember Phil saying you can wait until you're down to about 5 BBs in PLO tournaments (as opposed to 10 in NLHE).
Ok, since you asked, I'm going to be honest and say that you DON'T actually suck. I should probably throw in a qualifier here though, and mention that sometimes I'm mistake.
In 2003 when Moneymaker won, people started to play poker for a different reason. Poker is a people game but the players these days think it's a math game which makes the game bad. Easy to exploit but not really fun like before even if you are getting better day by day.
The most important thing you have to learn in poker is gambling addicts and loosers can still be provided the stone cold nuts. You will get bad beats from bad players. It happens. The important part is folding when the bad players present to you that they have the nuts. A poker player is judged by his folds just as much as his plays.
If you bet 150 on a truly 50/50 then keep doubling it until you win.. you only have to lose about 9x in a row to lose about 80k It's about a 1:500 chance to lose 9 in a row, I think.. but whenever you win with less than 9 you'll only win 150 bucks. Now combine all the results, and you'll realize you'll always lose in the long run by a lot unless you both have unlimited money AND the house takes unlimited bets. If you have that much money, it already isn't worth your time to do that. Lol.
