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14. Poisson Process I 

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MIT 6.041 Probabilistic Systems Analysis and Applied Probability, Fall 2010
View the complete course: ocw.mit.edu/6-041F10
Instructor: John Tsitsiklis
License: Creative Commons BY-NC-SA
More information at ocw.mit.edu/terms
More courses at ocw.mit.edu

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8 ноя 2012

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Комментарии : 51   
@matsiv5707
@matsiv5707 4 месяца назад
If you're wondering, a simple way to solve the limit is to take the log of the expression, compute the limit of that logarithm and then take the exponential of the limit. You can use the fact that log(n!) goes to infinity as nlogn The rest of the computation is trivial
@MayankGoel447
@MayankGoel447 8 месяцев назад
This is a fantastic lecture on Poisson Process and way they come from, probably the best
@dania_884
@dania_884 2 года назад
he teaches excellently! make complicated things easy to understand, that's the magic!
@nadekang8198
@nadekang8198 5 лет назад
Even Professor Tsitsiklis might stuck in the middle of the proof of Poisson distribution PMF...but the proof is perfectly written in his textbook, which is the BEST by far I've ever read in intro level probability and statistics. It took me a long time to fully understand Poisson process...thanks to MIT OCW and Professor Tsitsiklis.
@elmrabti
@elmrabti 3 года назад
Hi where I can find his textbook please?
@nadekang8198
@nadekang8198 3 года назад
@@elmrabti amazon
@elmrabti
@elmrabti 3 года назад
@@nadekang8198 Do you have it?
@elenag.224
@elenag.224 3 года назад
Ένα μεγάλο ευχαριστώ, από Έλληνες φοιτητές!
@Naz-pk4ll
@Naz-pk4ll 5 лет назад
You are a star, dear lecturer.
@eneserdogan34
@eneserdogan34 2 года назад
To derive the formula at 26:07 (Poisson distribution) from 25:06 (Binomial distribution), you need to write combination as factorials, then use stirling approximation for factorials and the definition of e
@maxdickens9280
@maxdickens9280 Год назад
Well said! But, actually, stirling is not a necessity. Since when n -> infinity, we have (n k) = (n * (n-1) * ... * (n - k + 1)) / k! -> n^k / k!
@oyaoya2468
@oyaoya2468 Год назад
you dont need stirling appoximation for that
@Longpan898
@Longpan898 7 месяцев назад
Thanks 🙏🏻
@xozhang
@xozhang 7 лет назад
Excellent explanation !
@subhashjain2294
@subhashjain2294 6 лет назад
thank you so much sir,you made learning very easy....
@aniketsaha7455
@aniketsaha7455 6 лет назад
Although it is true intuitively that the T2, T3,.... all will be independent exponential random variable but the pdf for K=2,3,4 is not exponential...How can you argue about that??? anyone?
@animagous1
@animagous1 7 лет назад
Why probability of arrival for k>1 in time delta is zero.?
@zihaocheng6438
@zihaocheng6438 8 лет назад
wonderful lecture
@achillesarmstrong9639
@achillesarmstrong9639 6 лет назад
master piece of video
@hrodrick2890
@hrodrick2890 10 лет назад
sacredsoma The lector doesn't explain it, but in that part he is working with one of the several definitions of the Poisson process, in which the process is defined as a Lévy process. Deep knowledge of mathematical analysis, specifically measure theory, is required to understand these infitesimal properties of Lévy processes, that's why he doesn't say much about those second order terms.
@JaviOrman
@JaviOrman 3 года назад
Thanks for that clarification. I wrote on my notes that this part needed some more explanation.
@adityasahu96
@adityasahu96 3 года назад
too much information to grasp in one go.. woah nice lecture!
@anexocelisia9377
@anexocelisia9377 2 года назад
process has memorylessnessf property (provided the person entered the room doesn't see the future) continuous time variations definition of the poisson process and we use the concept of memorylessness in here time homogenity as time is continuous. Lambda*Tau will be the rate at very small interval diff time slots are independent of each other NUMBER of arrivals in the disjoint time interval will be independent of each other. delta is very small. pmf have the binomial pmf here we are taking a big interval and we are splitting that interval into many infinitesemely small interval. now prob of one of the intervals will be same as the bernoulli distriubution for poissson we take lambda tends to 0. merging of the poisson process
@grantguo9399
@grantguo9399 2 месяца назад
I enjoyed watching this maths lecture as watching a movie
@rikenm
@rikenm 7 лет назад
my probability professor skipped poisson distribution saying it is not so important.
@kevinpierce4061
@kevinpierce4061 5 лет назад
haha
@BryanSteeleSounds
@BryanSteeleSounds 4 месяца назад
I'm wondering, at 14:15, when Prof. is discussing arrival independence (second bullet point), how can they be truly "independent," if this is being modeled by a PMF that must sum to 1. In other words, don't we create a type of dependency exactly when an event has occurred ?
@KyleGoryl
@KyleGoryl 6 лет назад
Begin's poisson at 9:20
@richardellard
@richardellard 5 лет назад
Not even a chuckle at the "B movie" joke?
@luigixu3251
@luigixu3251 3 года назад
51:46 he probably meant "this plus that" instead of "this plus that".
@suyashmuley9096
@suyashmuley9096 6 лет назад
what is the reason behind considering second order terms of delta? since it is just an interval.
@blogginbuggin
@blogginbuggin 4 года назад
Prof John's lecture on Poissan PMF is available at: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-eTLa9GDID8A.html
@nguyentin6294
@nguyentin6294 3 года назад
I am having a hard time making sense of the notation at 11:22. I believe the notation should be the conditional probability P(k|t) rather than P(k,t). I interpreted the latter to be the joint probability and if it is the case, the summation over all k of P(k,t) given a fixed t could not be equal to 1. Anyone, please help knock some sense to my head!
@schobihh2703
@schobihh2703 2 года назад
t is a different nature and not a random variable.
@nguyentin6294
@nguyentin6294 2 года назад
@@schobihh2703 could you clarify it a bit more?
@schobihh2703
@schobihh2703 2 года назад
@@nguyentin6294 as mentioned in the video. k is a random variable, i.e. the summation over all k is 1. "t" just specifies omega, the set of all k's. it is only a parameter and not an event. Or otherwa around ask yourself if t would be an event what would P(t) be? it simply doesnt make sense to ask this, without specifing how much arrivals we are talking about.
@nguyentin6294
@nguyentin6294 2 года назад
@@schobihh2703 thank you for the insight :)
@WayWaterWay
@WayWaterWay 4 года назад
This is amazing
@sacredsoma
@sacredsoma 11 лет назад
I dont get the bit @ 15:50 about small interval probabilities being a limiting case. Why are there any second order terms?
@aryanparikh9085
@aryanparikh9085 3 года назад
I doubt that my comment will be useful to you at all since it's been 7 years, but I'll comment anyway for people who are going to view this lecture in the future. The second order terms exist because P(k,d) isn't 0 when k >=2. d here stands for delta. Regardless of how small an interval you pick, it is possible for more than one successes to occur in the interval. That probability, however, will converge to 0 much "faster" than d, so we can ignore those probabilities since they are trivial. This is an important assumption to use the binomial theorem, since the binomial theorem only works when there are two possible outcomes - success and failure. If we allow multiple successes, the theorem cannot be used. Of course, it follows that any distribution which doesn't satisfy the property that the probability of multiple successes in a given interval doesn't converge to 0 "faster" than the interval itself cannot be treated as a Poisson Distribution. In our course notes at University of Waterloo, this property is referred to as "individuality".
@priyamdey3298
@priyamdey3298 3 года назад
@@aryanparikh9085 If possible, can you share the notes of this particular characteristic for qualifying a distribution as Poisson?
@bosepukur
@bosepukur 8 лет назад
good explaination though a little more rigorous derivation wud have helped lot... intended for overview
@Isaac668
@Isaac668 7 лет назад
the course is applied probability, the point is not rigorous derivation
@JaviOrman
@JaviOrman 3 года назад
I would look into a textbook for complete rigorous derivations.
@huasongyin3711
@huasongyin3711 8 лет назад
I really enjoyed this series of lectures just to refresh my memory. Thanks.But I am also surprised that A MIT professor of statistics can stump on such a simple task of deriving the Poisson PDF.
@niko97219
@niko97219 7 лет назад
Anyone can stump on something once in a while.
@freeeagle6074
@freeeagle6074 Год назад
He wrote the textbook which contains the detailed derivation procedures. He would probably be able to figure out how to derive the final Poisson formula if he had spent perhaps some more minutes. But the professor decided to leave the students to read the textbook themselves. By the way, some people do have the ability to memorize all details once they take a look. But that is a painful disease.
@mpakojohnk
@mpakojohnk 3 года назад
Περίφανος που βλέπω κι άλλον Έλληνα να διδάσκει εδώ
@lekokotonteso
@lekokotonteso 3 года назад
Πώς ξέρετε ότι είναι Έλληνας; Αγνοήστε τα λάθη, χρησιμοποιώ λογισμικό μετάφρασης.
@mpakojohnk
@mpakojohnk 3 года назад
@@lekokotonteso Tsitsiklis is a greek surname. Furthermore focus on his accent
@user-ym8rz6mw5r
@user-ym8rz6mw5r 8 лет назад
hahaha, this guy does not get ready for lectures hahah. so funny..
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