I heard that SAG audiences apparently responded to Spencer really well. I thought that was a group Stewart and her movie would face most trouble, so if they are in, the movie and her are in a very good position. EDIT. So this aged horribly...
Kristen Stewart is a strong contender for an Oscar nomination. I really hope she can get her very first Oscar nomination and that would make the haters slapped themselves in the face for calling her a bad actress. She deserved the amount of praise she gets for playing Princess Diana!!!
Bleecker Street better get their sh*t together and make MASS happen. All four of those performances deserve to be nominated as well as that phenomenal screenplay. Great video guys 😄
OMG I absolutely loved Spencer. Kristen Stewart kills it. Reminiscent of Philip Seymour Hoffman in Capote because not only did they mimic who they portray really well but they both went beyond and made it their own, made it powerful. Stewart is is definitely my favorite to win the Oscar. King Richard was a bit too sanitized for my taste but Will Smith is undeniably excellent in it. I haven’t seen Macbeth but I think Denzel seems to be the one to beat.
100%, man. I'm not sure what Cole and brother bro are talking about when they say that Will Smith is going to _win_ the award, no questions asked. I don't even think his win is as cemented as Stewart's in Spencer for Best Actress as of right now. Also, Denzel Washington hasn't won an Oscar in _twenty years(!!)_ and he is playing Macbeth and everyone is saying is is absolutely magnificent in it. There's (almost) no way the AMPAS don't respond to that and give Denzel his 3rd statue. We shall see.
I also forgot to mention. I heard that No Time to die is ineligible for best song. Because Billie Eilish released it so long ago. At the time she couldn’t have known how much the film would delayed.
I would absolutely love to see Titane and Julia Ducournau receive love from the director’s branch and beyond. Heck, if there weren’t a bias against non-English-speaking leads, the incredible performance by Agatha Rouselle would be receiving a whole lot of attention for the most physically demanding role I’ve seen in a long time.
Kristen Stewart in Spencer nominations & wins - Critics Choice (possible upset by Jessica Chastain in The Eyes Of Tammy Faye) - SAG (possibly beating Jessica Chastain in TEOTF) - BAFTA (win in highest percent) - Independent Spirit (possibly win) - Oscars - If Golden Globes happening she might win in Motion Picture - Drama & Jessica Chastain in The Eyes Of Tammy Faye in Motion Picture - Comdey/Musical
Interesting scenarios for Best Actress; My personal pick is Kristen Stewart so far, but I'm only confident if she wins the BAFTA. Reason why I think her chance of winning might get affected; the UK has a different trailer released where it cuts the part when she says "Will they kill me, do you think?". (okay it's probably just me overthinking, and I have not seen Spencer, but I feel like this movie would put the royal family not in a very positive light, unlike The Queen). If Jessica Chastain wins, it'd be well deserved. Her overdue narrative will definitely help, and honestly if she sweeps this season I wouldn't be mad, but I just feel bad for Stewart because this kind of role doesn't come along very often for her and it definitely defines her career as an actress. If Jennifer Hudson wins, it'd be exactly 20 years since the last time actress of color wins in this category and that'd make her the 8th actress to win in both acting categories (and the only actress of color to do so). If Frances wins, she'd tie with Katherine Hepburn as the only actresses with 4 leading Oscars plus a back to back win. We should not underestimate Frances McDormand. Nobody thought she'd win last year, and now with Denzel Washington & Joel Coen on her side, they'd campaign hard for this movie. (and sometimes Academy members tend to vote for veterans too). Gosh I'm so hyped for this race.
The weird thing about BAFTA is that someone from the royal family is always present. Can they give Kristen a BAFTA for a somewhat controversial figure?
@@tomgleeson813 Prince William is the president too. I think that’s what would kill her chance at the BAFTA. I guess we’ll have to see, anything could happen.
my Best Actress top 5 Kristen Stewart (Spencer) Jennifer Hudson (Respect) Jessica Chastain (The Eyes Of Tammy Faye) Lady Gaga (House Of Gucci) Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) next in line Frances McDormand (The Tragedy Of Macbeth) Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) Jodie Comer (The Last Duel) Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza) Halle Berry (Bruised)
idk dont look up looks bad to me, i didnt see a lot of being the ricardos yet and house of gucci didnt convinced me yet. im really hyped to watch all the other contenders tho
Olivia Colman is one of those actresses That I love that she keeps winning. She’s been stealing scenes for decades and can literally play any character. Plus she just doesn’t care at the awards. 😂
I think the big sticking point for Jessica Chastain at the BAFTAs is that nobody in the UK knows who Tammy Faye is, so there’ll be less impetus or desire to see the movie, which will hinder Chastain.
@@jhenning499 I don`t belive she will win supporting (she has never won that, and has 3 nominations), actually I think both supporting categories are without any front runners yet, but the nomination seems very plausible if they put her there
i´m really up to Al pacino win for best supporting actor. For sure he will deliver astonishing italian accent and an amazing acting performance. He is one of the greatest and he has only 1 oscar.
I saw Belfast. Solid 8/10, but man. I already forgot about the film. It's one of those best pictures I won't remember come 3 years from now. Hopefully anything else wins.
I want to see how well The Last Duel is able to perform box office wise. There’s a lot of potential for it to over-perform if the academy likes it as much as audiences seem to like it.
I have never felt so seen watching a movie before and all of that is thanks to Jodie Comer’s masterfully nuanced and emotionally wrecking performance. My husband who rarely pays attention to movies was crying by the end of it. Her portrayal of Marguerite was so powerful. She should be the frontrunner for Best Actress.
Rebecca Ferguson for Best Supporting Actress for Dune would be an excellent surprise. I heard from the people who have seen the movie said she was the standout performance so, it would be great for her to be nominated.
I really really REALLY want Benedict to win Best Actor. This is a completely different character than he usually plays, and the character is so unique and complex. And Ben is a master of the highest order when it comes to his craft.
My predictions: Best Director: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) Best Actor: Will Smith (King Richard) Best Actress: Kristen Stewart (Spencer) Best Supporting Actor: Ciaran Hinds (Belfast) Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
I still just am unsure if Hudson gets in. Audiences did eat it up, but that was the audiences who saw it and not a lot did. I think she could definitely get knocked out just cause of competition.
Biopics : 2017 Darkest Hour , I Tonya, Roman J Israel , The Post 2018- Vice , Bohemian Rhapsody , First Man , Green Book 2019 - Judy , Rocketman, Harriet Irishman , Two Popes 2020 - Mank ,Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey , The United States vs. Billie Holiday. 2021- Respect , Spencer , The eyes of Tammy Faye , King Richard, Being Ricardos....There is already a shortage of scripts in Hollywood
It’s fun to look back at the old predictions Noticed 0 of the top 5 for Supporting Actor got nominated, that’s pretty nuts. Jared Leto and Jamie Dornan admittedly came close
Unfortunately it's pretty clear you're stanning Mass 😆 I wanted Dowd so badly with this award but that's not how it works - how is anyone going to watch this and not vote for her. I think Caitriona Balfe has this in her bag
this is the first year in a while that i actually think more than 10 contenders deserve to be in the best picture category (but thats based on personal hype because i watched like two of the first 16 you listed)
What I think about Best Director Belfast’s directing is too classical so it could get snubbed If del Toro doesn’t manage to convey the characters’ feelings as gracefully as in the Shape of Water, NA can also get snubbed Denis Villeneuve directed Dune well enough for a scifi however it’s hardly possible he gets in Campion’s Power of the dogs cinematography quite stood out and PTA’s LP felt different from his usual style, so they could get it. Instead the academy just like previous years may mark totally unique voices like Annette, Tragedy of Macbeth or Don’t look up
I think Marlee Matlin has a strong chance of a nomination... She has the comeback narrative, she's the only deaf performer to ever win an Oscar, she's the youngest winner of Best Actress, I think they will want to bring her back to the Oscars. As you said she presented at last year's Oscars and she was also invited to the Academy Museum's opening gala... So she's in the spotlight.
She absolutely deserves a nomination for the film. I didn’t understand her character at first, but that scene with her daughter about half-way in is radiant and poignant. Everything clicked into place. It’s a joy to watch her
@@farithfalcon4538 Yes it is but Kirsten Dunst is losing a lot of steam, and we don't really know if Ariana DeBose will have a nomination worthy performance or not. That's why I think Marlee Matlin still has a chance to get a nom.
@@jdgg544 I agree. Even though I think they did a great job with Les Misérables since it’s a great and underrated film and also got nominated eventually. Titane is not super popular in France, the box office is surprisingly bad.
McDormand won't win that's for sure. If the academy by some weird turn of events decide to ignore Stewart and Chastain, they'll choose Hudson as equally deserving AND a person of colour.
Have to agree with the BAFTA/Kristen Stewart argument. The rest of the top 5 are all American/non-British based performances so they’ll favour Kristen above them.
By the way. Director recently is a shitshow, 1 is going to come out of nowhere like in the last couple of years. The directors branch just loves to do that.
Mass should get a nominations Picture (Bleecker Street), Director (Fran Kranz), Supporting Actor (Jason Issacs), Supporting Actress (Ann Dowd), Original Screenplay
Regarding screenplay and Picture. The last to have won picture without a screenplay nom was Titanic back in 1998. Also the reverse is also essential. A film needs to be nominated for picture to win a screenplay award. The last film to do it; Eternal sunshine of the spotless mind. That was back in 2005.
Trying to cross-reference your Supporting Actor list with the contenders even *available* to be predicted on GoldDerby is giving me agita. Also -- although Robin de Jesús is an amazing actor (and 3x Tony-nominated!), his role in "tick tick...BOOM!" has never been Tony-nominated, as the show's never actually been produced on Broadway. You may be confusing this with Robin's excellent work both on stage (in 2018) and film (last season) in "The Boys in the Band." Still, he's staying in my long list. He deserves a lot more recognition!
i am SO confused, do people like belfast or not? you seemed to suggest it was alright but it seems like everybody hates it ... is it just because it seems to be taking nominations from more worthy contenders?
No Externals …come on boys..! I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss it It’s only October here - Chloe’ done her magic on this one - densely dramatic narrative and compelling EPIC character arcs - visually stunning - amazing score - deep themes of morality, theology and mortality I honestly think it has a shot!
@@notchuckproductions5029 Yes, I absolutely do! It’s the lowest rated MCU film with the TOP mainstream critics only that have for years proven themselves to be a complete joke - a bunch of out of touch fart sniffers! They went after Joker too AFTER it won best picture at Venice - didn’t you find that kind of odd? It seemed really personal - anti- comic book bias - don’t want a comic book based film to win Best Picture at the oscars? I honestly think this is going to implode on them - expose them for the bias elite hacks they are This film is going to score well with the audience and more middle of the road critics Like Joker - the TOP CRITICS are going to be on an island looking really stupid - once again The industry needs a shack up !
@@trekkiedave7910 joker in my opinion wasn’t really a comic book movie though the fact that it was based on joker was irrelevant to its themes or the story. This isn’t getting nominated, I highly doubt Disney is going to campaign it for picture.
I know nothing about filmmaking, fuck I don’t even really like movies. But I always find award shows and film analysis so interesting. I wish I could make more sense lol
She’s not in the conversation, obviously as it was a Horror movie, but I thought Rebecca Hall gave an excellent performance in The Night House. Truly underrated.
I can’t help it but am a bit bored with the biopic thing. I love the crown & like the fact we have a royal family, I like Kristen Stewart, but am not convinced that she is an absolute certain for bafta & oscar. Maybe I also have Diana fatigue. If I am not the only one feeling this way, could this open out the best actress contenders for performances in non biopic screenplays? I am also excited that Jason Isaacs is in the mix for best supporting actor & hope that Martha Plimpton is recognised for her performance as well as Anne Dowd. Of course I love Dame Judi Dench, am british, her who do think you are was brilliant, but is she really worthy of an Oscar nomination?
I still have last night in soho in my top 8 I would take out Jennifer Hudson and put in Penelope Cruz also basically best actress is the year of playing real people
Love your videos, but wanted to say that “Tick, Tick…BOOM!” was never actually on Broadway nor won any Tony Awards. Not trying to be critical, just wanted to make it known in case future videos include the film. ❤️
If Jane Campion gets nominated for Director. She would be the first woman to be nominated twice. Kathryn Bigelow and Greta Gerwig were very close but failed to get the second.
my Best Supporting Actor top 5 Jason Isaacs (Mass) Jamie Dornan (Belfast) Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) Andrew Garfield (The Eyes Of Tammy Faye) Jared Leto (House Of Gucci) next in line Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power Of The Dog) David Alvarez (West Side Story) Troy Kotsur (CODA) Daniel Durant (CODA) Richard Jenkins (The Humans)
my Best Supporting Actress top 5 Ann Dowd (Mass) Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) Kirsten Dunst (The Power Of The Dog) Caitríons Balfe (Belfast) Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) next in line Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) Marlee Matlin (CODA) Ruth Negga (Passing) Judi Dench (Belfast) Olga Merediz (In The Heights)
I think Jennifer Hudson will get easily knocked out for Best Actress. She seems like this year's Andra Day in Billie Holiday but Day was way stronger because that film came out late, was campaigned well, the competition was low, and she surprised at the Globes (which seemed like the place where Hudson would have had the greatest shot at being nominated, and they're not happening now). And people might just finally say no to these shamelessly baity, vapid and bland music biopics. I'm really crossing my fingers for Alana Haim, she's stunning in the trailer, and if Licorice Pizza proves itself to be the Best Picture frontrunner that we think it is, it would be ridiculous if neither of its leads got nominated.
@@oskari7121 yeah, Chastaine seems like a lock at this point. Kidman is definitely vulnerable because I'm not sure if Being the Ricardos is gonna be good. Same for House of Gucci. I would love to see those folks drop and make room for someone like Alana Haim, Renate Reinsve or Penèlope Cruz.
my Best Director top 5 Kenneth Branagh 'Belfast' Fran Kranz 'Mass' Jane Campion 'The Power Of The Dog' Guillermo Del Toro 'Nightmare Alley' Pablo Larraín 'Spencer' next in line Denis Villenueve 'Dune' Steven Spielberg 'West Side Story' Ridley Scott 'House Of Gucci' Paul Thomas Anderson 'Licorice Pizza' David Lowery 'The Green Knight'
Just a quick PSA from your friendly neighborhood theatre nerd: neither Tick Tick Boom nor Cyrano every went to Broadway. Both of them played Off-Broadway, and were never eligible for Tony awards. In the original production of Tick Tick Boom 20 years ago, the 2 main male characters got nominated for some other awards, but the main female role did not.
Any buzz for Emily Blunt in A Quiet Place 2 for Supporting? She won the SAG for the first film and I feel like she's really well liked by the Academy too.
It’s an uplifting and crowd pleasing film à la Hidden Figures, The Help, The Blind Side, Green Book - so it’s a very likely Best Picture contender. I watched it and the direction is not noticeable - it’s all about the performance(s). So it makes perfect sense.
@@pb.j.1753 How exactly was the directing for Lady Bird noticeable for example? I think its pretentious to say Green Book and King Richard are not worthy but Lady Bird and Minari are.
@@joecoe4416 that’s random but ok. i dont think lady bird and minari are deserving but they have clear directorial and personal handwritings, they are about the places and times the directors know and grew up in. They come from lived experiences and no one else could have written and directed them like Greta and Lee. Tell me what’s noticeable about King Richard. Cause a number of directors could have directed that - it’s a biopic that is not defined by directorial choices. It’s approved by the Williams family thus very biased and sanitized. The directors branch of the Academy will see it and not nominate it. 100% That’s why Peter Farelli for Green Book and Aaron Sorkin for Chicago 7 got snubbed. Fellow directors preferred personal stories like Cold War and Another Round over those two crowd pleasers.
