@@abekatz9526 small festival hit that didn’t have a ton of buzz leaving the festivals but gained a lot of traction in awards season, was the little film that could from a not that well known Director with one performance that showed up everywhere. A film with lots of passion that will get sound win(s) and sneak into other previously unexpected categories
Can’t wait for the time from March 7 to March 15 when we have VES nominations, CC awards, pga noms, dga noms, ASC noms, BAFTA noms, Eddy noms, usc awards, Sag awards and the Gold derby and Oscar nominations
I think MINARI did not receive much recognition at the GGs due to their antiquated non-English language rules (even though MINARI is an entirely American story).
I love Minari! However Globes could have (& should nominated in other categories) as they did for Roma & Parasite. They even gave The Life Ahead more than one nomination.
I get that you guys don’t like Mank, but Amanda Seyfried’s performance is 100% Oscar worthy. a) it’s a very good performance & b) Oscar voters love the narrative of more comedic Hollywood actors taking on a “real serious role” and then being awarded for that. As well for a movie that’s gonna get double digit noms, she’s the consensus best part of the movie, so I really don’t see her losing.
I think it does well at the BAFTAs by default. It’s a British film which gives it a huge plus. As far as I know, PYW is the only really other British film in contention.
I hope Rhiz Ahmed to win... I mean, I love Chadwick on Ma Rainey's, but I simply was devastated by Ahmed's performance that I do believe he deserves it, I mean.... Come on!!!
You guys currently have the SAG nominees for Best Actor as your Oscar nominees. That has happened only once in the last 10 years, namely in 2016 (Washington, Affleck, Garfield, Gosling, Mortensen)!!! Since it is so rare, I can see Oldman and Yeun getting snubbed easily this year.
Same for Supporting Actress for which SAG and Oscars only matched twice in the last 10 years, namely in 2011 and 2016. I can see Yuh-Jung Youn snubbed this year.
Chicago 7 winning best picture would age horribly. It's a mediocre film with great performances, directed by a writer with no understanding of the politics of the events. It's a toned down drama of a trial that in reality was pure comedy. It's a liberal, writing about radicals, failing horribly.
At least it will win for a reason (although a political one), till this day I still have absolutely no idea what was the reasoning behind Slumdog Millionaire.
@@jackchung6573 Nothing wrong with being timely, but it is not and should not be a requirement. The category is simply "Best Picture." Other Oscar Winners with "no reasoning" to win other than greatness? LOTR Return of the King, No Country for Old Men, The Godfather, Schindler's List (and the list goes on and on).
@@reeldeal3227 Greatness is a reasoning in itself. My comment was referring to the apparent lack of both greatness and timeliness for Slumdog Millionaire to win. Maybe we have different opinion on the film, or maybe I'm misunderstanding your comment.
In my opinion, Sound of Metal will either get Original Screenplay or Best Picture. When you look at the past few years, there has never been a year where 5 Best Picture nominees make it in the category. In 2019 we have Knives Out, in 2018 we have First Reformed, in 2017 we have The Big Sick, in 2016 we have 20th Century Woman and The Lobster, and it just keeps going. Because of this, I believe Sound of Metal, Da 5 Bloods, or Judas and the Black Messiah will only get in IF they miss out on Best Picture. For my 5th slot prediction tho, I am predicting Never Rarely Sometimes Always.
I feel like most people didn't watch Ma Rainey. It is NOT a pity win or nomination. Viola and chadwick easily gave some of the best performances in their careers.
I was honestly more impressed by Viola Davis than Chadwick Bosemam, but her performance felt like it should be in the Best Supporting Actress category. She's not seeing a win here because of how much it is Chadwick's movie.
@@HeelPower200 Would have to agree. While Chadwick's performance was great and felt like the perfect place for him to get stronger roles in his career (RIP 🙁), Viola just steals the screen and exudes acting experience.
After watching Judas and the Black Messiah, I think it's unfortunate that Lakeith isn't getting the 5th spot in Best Actor. He outshone Daniel Kaluuya in my opinion.
Promising Young Woman vs Trial is like get out vs three Billboards. if trial wins, it has a chance to win but if promising young Woman wins, it just means trial can’t win
Thank you! That's all I can think of. He rarely shows up in the first 40 mins or so, and then has a small final scene at the end, and that's it, literally. It's crazy.
For director, let's not forget the one super surprise pick that's shown up a lot in the past decade (PTA, Pawlikowski, Zeitlin, Abrahamson...). I wouldn't be shocked to see Fennell or (sadly) Lee get the boot for a real left-field pick (maybe Marder?).
I think the director nominations will be: •Chloe Zhao •David Fincher •Aaron Sorkin •Regina King (probably) As for the fifth one, they could go with Emmerald Fennel (which would make it exactly the same group as the Golden Globes) but I could also see them going with Lee Isaac Chung or maybe even Florian Zeller. I doubt Marder will get nominated, and I have a feeling Lee won’t get nominated either
Netflix will continue to break through, and possibly earn a BP win. Several reasons why it will be runner up to Nomadland: 1. Netflix’ improvements pale in comparison with the pedigree of Searchlight, including BP winners Birdman, 12 Years a Slave, Slumdog Millionaire and The Shape of Water (Nomadland’s studio). 2. Nomadland has won far more awards to date than any other film, including the two that almost always lead to the Oscar BP: TIFF and Venice. 3. The metascore for Nomadland is an astronomical 96 compared with Trial of the Chicago 7’s score of 77 (although this is higher than, say, PYW at 72). 4. Momentum is everything. Nomadland is to be released in the US this week. 5. While Trial will probably win SAG ensemble and GG screenplay (and maybe GG BP) setting it up as a worthy competitor, PGA, DGA, Critics’ Choice all heavily favor Nomadland. Again, momentum is everything. Should be fun.
I don’t think so. It would have been a Paramount theatrical release had it not been for Covid. Without Netflix & Amazon & Hulu & HBOMax, would there even be an Oscars this year?
@@rhythmoriented But then, Chicago 7 is like a safe, political choice for the Oscar's so I think it'll be too soon to say that it'll be a runner up to Nomadland. I think Chicago 7 still have equal chances on winning BP (but if it does, it'll boring af)
@@IERDNAAAaa99 It does very much look like a two horse race. There are too many parallels between 2018 (The Shape of Water vs. 3Billboards) and this year to even list. It could go either way, but at the end of the day I think (only a speculation) that The Academy will go with the film with with most accolades when there is such a difference between #1 and #2 on that parameter. Thanks
Judas and the Black Messiah underperforming at awards is really sad to me. Fantastic filmmaking and acting all around. I enjoyed The Trial of the Chicago 7 for sure but Judas feels far more bold, authentic, and important.
Am i the only one who thinks that Trial of the Chicago 7 is a very poor choice for best Picture if it wins? I don’t know, i just find it decent and that’s it (just my opinion)
@@thearabicmusicland I mean, you're entitled to your opinion. Obviously you're not alone, seeing as the HFPA, SAG-AFTRA, and BFCA awarded her. But, I think the consensus is Olivia deserved it. She won a majority of the critics awards, and BAFTA and AMPAS gave her the win. Objectively, her performance is probably better, though I did love Glenn's (and thought it was underrated by critics, who awarded Gaga and Melissa more!, ugh).
@@jacobboe7711 Yeah I get your point, her performance was underrated, it's way better than Gaga's. what I loved about Glenn in that character, is that she stayed committed to the character and didn't overact the role. However I liked that year when there was a real competition and no one knew who will win. most of the time, it's one actor who gets everything. Hope this year will be exciting.
Leto feels a bit like Margot Robbie in MQoS or Hong Chau for Downsizing. Flashy supporting performance in an average movie that gets SAG and a couple other random precursors but doesn’t show up on Oscar morning.
@@Lamidemonami7891 i'm not comparing those films, i mean that I,Tonya only got acting and editing nominations, i think that will happen with Sound of Metal (change editing for sound) when both deserve better
@@homereltontonaso but I’m saying Sound of Metal isn’t I, Tonya because it has passion. Passion gets you a Best Picture nomination, and this film will definitely get that because people love it way more than they loved I, Tonya
After some more awards shows have played out, I genuinely think Minari is top 2. It's favorited to get director, multiple acting, screenwriting, and even score. This year is giving me deja vu with Spotlight, Moonlight, Green Book, and Parasite.
I swear if Da 5 Bloods gets a nomination over Tenet I’ll never watch the Oscars again. Tenet was one of the best of the year by one of the best current directors starring 2 of the biggest up and coming actors currently working yet it gets zero love.
I actually think both Judas and Shaka King make it in for Picture and Director. That's going to be one of many March 15 Oscar nominatiion surprises. We shouldn't forget that nominations end March 10 and open on 5th. From what I've gathered Kaluuya's nominations so far are largely rooted in the electrifying trailer and not from folks seeing the movie. The movie is finally out and accessible and folks are just eating it up. Mark this comment guys.
Why do you think Delroy Lindo is missing BAFTA? He’s a Brit AND they have 6 spots this year. Sure Yeun could get nominated, but I can’t imagine another person getting that 6th spot. Lindo>Rahim for BAFTA, right? Curious about this
I really hope Yuh-Jung Youn wins supporting actress I loved her in Minari. Glenn Close is long overdue but her role in Hillbilly Elegy is just...not it.
Mads Mikkelsen is gonna be the fifth slot in director, mark my word! He is gonna be the Antonio Banderas/Charlotte Rampling of this years, European voters have a lot of power this days. And Yeri Han could surprise in Actress, she was a real lead and way better than Steven Yeun, if they really love the movie, this is a real possibility.
My predictions Best Picture - The Trial of the Chicago 7 Best Actor - Chadwick Boseman Best Actress - Carrey Mulligan Best Supporting Actor - Leslie Odom Jr Best Supporting Actress - Yuh Jung Youn
Actually, I don't think they nominated 1917 for screenplay because they liked it. It is well known by writers how hard it is to write a one-take movie. It's totally new territory and it takes a lot of thinking to realize plausibility
My predictions and personal Winners : Best actress : -Carey Mulligan: Promissing Young woman -Frances McDormard:Nomadland -Vanessa Kirby: Pièces of a Woman -Viola Davis: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom -Sophia Loren: The Life Ahead Winner: - Carey Mulligan (should Win) -Frances McDormard (most likely) Best supporting actress -Maria Bakalova: Borat 2 -Glenn Close : Hillbilly Elegy -Yuh-Jung Youn: Minari - Olivia Colman : The Father -Jodie Foster: The Mouritarian Winner : -Yuh-Jung Youn (should Win) -Maria Bakalova ( most likely) Best supporting actor : -Daniel Kaluuya: Judas and the Black Messiah -Sasha Baron Cohen :The Trial of the Chicago 7 -Leslie Odom Jr: One nigth in Miami -Paul Raci : Sound of Métal -Chadwick Boseman: Da 5 Bloods Winner : Daniel Kaluuya (should Win and Will Win) Best actor : -Chadwick Boseman : Ma Rainey's Black Bottom -Anthony Hopkins : The Father -Riz Ahmed : Sound of Métal -Steven Yeun: Minari -Tahar Rahim : The Mauritanian Winner: - Riz Ahmed and Anthony Hopkins (tie - they should Win) - Chadwick Boseman (most likely) Best director : -Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) -Aaron Sorkin ( The trail of the Chicago 7) -Regina King (One nigth in Miami) -David Fincher (Mank) -Lee Isaac Chung (Minari ) Winner : -Chloé Zhao (Should Win and Will Win)
i LOVE carey mulligan and i think she's a fantastic actor but her performance in promising young woman really didn't do it for me (i don't think it was necessarily her just the writing of the character)
Idk, but I don’t think that promising young woman is the kind of movie that gives the Oscar to its actress. I’m just saying. I’d like her to win or Vanessa, but we’ll see
@@alexwest2945 That was my reaction after watching PYW. I really liked the movie but I wasn't crazy about it like I thought I would be after people hyped it up so much. Her performance was great but I don't feel like the movie itself and what she had to work with is really oscar deserving because it feels too much like a simplistic movie.
At the end you said "do you have a friend named oscar who likes the oscars" and I feel like im crazy for saying this but my friend is named Tony, and he has a brother named Oscar and a sister named Emily, but they call her Emmy. So idk if that counts
Why did you put Hillbilly Elegy over Soul? Animated movies were nominated for Best Picture before, including Pete Doctor’s very own Up. Plus critics hated Hillbilly Elegy and loved Soul. The audience including me hated Hillbilly Elegy and loved Soul. While Soul being nominated is still a stretch, it still has a much better chance than Hillbilly Elegy.
In one the live streams from Gold Derby they talked how Boseman is not a lock to win, because there's voters that won't want to give the award just because he unfortunally passed away, and the Oscars only gave two posthumous Oscars in their history. To be really honest the best performance so far for me has been Riz Ahmed. I haven't watched The Father and Minari yet, but Ahmed felt more real than Boseman's Leeve, he was too much of a play character for me. I also don't think Chloe Zhao is a lock to win, It's beautiful and poetic what she did, but I don't think the directing stands out more than the cinematography and score.
Watch The Father, which will be out by the end of this month, and then you'll be able to decide if Anthony Hopkins outshines the rest of them or not. And he really does with that raw performance.
@@pb.j.1753 particularly hilarious how such a short simple surname can be misspelt in so many different ways. I even saw a hilarious example where someone ended up confusing Youn with Yeun because of spelling the latter as ‘Yuen’. People need to sort this out.
I'm completely baffled by how you think Anthony Hopkins performance in The Father is even debatable! I mean you thinking that Chadwick Boseman and Riz Ahmed might deserve to win more than him is completely ludicrous.
The ranking is on what I think will happen not what I think deserves to happen. I think all performances would be good choices but Hopkins, I agree, gave the most impressive performance.
@@TheOscarExpert I'm not referring to you personally because as you've just mentioned, it looks like that's the direction they're going to be taking. Everyone is saying it which is frustrating! The Goldderby is having the same exact prediction as well, so you're right! It's unfortunate but then these awards have always been unfair throughout the years.
Leto feels a bit like Margot Robbie in MQoS or Hong Chau for Downsizing. Flashy supporting performance in an average movie that gets SAG and a couple other random precursors but doesn’t show up on Oscar morning.
Am I the only one who wants Phineas And Ferb: Candace Against The Universe to be nominated for Best Animated Feature and win Best Original Song for Us Against The Universe?
Maria Bakalova misses BAFTA = no Oscar nomination. Everybody backed McCarthy after she got in at BAFTA for bridesmaids, and JLo was snubbed after missing BAFTA for Hustlers. Keep your eyes open for that detail.
If Promising Young Woman gets an Editing nomination AND Costumes nomination, Carey is running away with that Oscar and nobody else will be able to catch up. I'm telling you guys, she's this year's Joaquin Phoenix in Joker. And just watch, we're all gonna predict Frances to take Critics' Choice and Viola to take SAG, and Carey just yeets them both. If this doesn't happen, I'll eat my words like David Lynch eats his quinoa.
That Joker comparison is really illuminating, a unconventional "crazy" performance defeats a traditional performance (Driver). I don't think most people realize how much Academy's taste had changed over the years, what was once the kingdom of social realist performers is now filled with mentally and morally ambiguous characters, or more dramatic interpretation of traditional roles. Jeez, to think that Gena Rowlands would've totally massacre the race if A Woman Under the Influence were released today.
@@jackchung6573 bruh, I never even considered Gena Rowlands in AWUTI. Yeah, I can totally see her winning in this field. And now that I think about it, the traditional roles AMPAS used to give Oscars to don’t have much of a play anymore. I mean, they do, but not in the same way that they used to. JK Simmons in Whiplash, McDormand in Three Billboards, and Casey Affleck in Manchester, just as a few examples, are performances that definitely could win in decades past, but they’re much deeper and more non-traditional versions of those other, similar performances. Perhaps it’s about time we take the idea of a “winning performance” and light it on fire
@@georgeehret3480 Pardon me, but what is the purpose of the "bruh" at the beginning of your comment? It doesn't seem to be coherent with the rest of what you said. Was it silly of me to mention her? By "today" I meant today's award climate, not this particular year. Also, the performances you mentioned are exactly what I meant by "more dramatic interpretation of traditional roles", they seems to be of the same kind on paper, but nowadays it's something different that attracts the Academy toward them. They no longer seems to be satisfied by merely portray those roles realistic, and expect something more spicy and extreme quality in their personality.
@@jackchung6573 that’s just the way I talk irl and it gets in the texts sometimes. And yeah I get what you mean, but I was going off of how I thought back on those performances specifically
How tf has Chicago 7 been a frontrunner? It has won literally zero critics awards. Meanwhile, Nomadland won like every critics award under the sun for picture and director plus Best Film at Venice and TIFF, the most important fall festivals.
I think y’all put the DeNoise filter on your audio in Premiere so the audio cross fades between clips got messed up by that bug that makes a weird noise whenever you combine those two whenever it crossfades
I was rooting for Viola Davis but there's no question Carey Mulligan is getting this. She's coming like a steamroller. None of the other contenders are making such an impact as she's doing
Bakalova won't miss BAFTA since she made AACTA (Lopez was snubbed there for example) and won London critcs awards. Both solid precursors for BAFTA. Still, i think she might end up being the odd one out at oscars. Zengel is very safe imo. Not only she has stronger film than Bakalova or Close, she is in Tom Hanks film. And everybody will see Tom Hanks film. Also, remember Abdi and Rylance noms? It has become a tradition that people come for Hanks and stay for supporting characters in his movies.
Chadwick Boseman is probably winning the oscar and surely it's well deserved. But I didn't like its performance and the character(Levee is a really bad person), I really wanted to but I couldn't. I found his monologues overwritten and over performed. I could see why they went a little stagy about it but it didn't do it for me. What I did like however is the intensity and the willingness you could feel he gave and also the moment when the character wasn't going crazy, when it went subtle. But I really feel bad about it because I wanted to like the performance but something was off, it didn't feel natural. I would personally vote for Delroy because he's the best of the year for me (male or female) or Riz because well he was superb and SOM was quite a journey.
Dude it shows how weak Oscar committee are ?? If we saw their history a lots of worst overrated actor who won oscar I don't know how much corrupt this award.
Maria Bakalova being at number 7 is insane. She’s got every nomination she needs, Burstyn only has the critics choice. She’s this year’s Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids except she could actually win. Guarantee she’s getting the BAFTA.
@@alexwest2945 I can't see her winning for a film that has 26% on Rotten Tomatoes. Rami Malek won for Bohemian Rhapsody, which was not a critical hit either, but even that has 61% on RT.
