2023 Hall of Fame Ballot, a breakdown 

We have to get Bailey a HOF vote

I hope the guy that only puts Jeff Kent on his HOF ballot every year does it again

A lack of Dave Stieb on the committee ballot is maddening.

Fun Scott Rolen stat. 3rd baseman with a career 120 OPS+ and 20+ dWar. -Scott Rolen -There is no other 3rd baseman who have done this.

Dave Stieb needs to go onto the veterans' committee Hall of Fame ballot. He got snubbed for the Cy Young at least 3 times and helped the Blue Jays win two World Series, and he has the highest WAR in Jays history.

It should be mentioned that Bronson Arroyo, Jared Weaver, and Jayson Werth all had elite hair

What Todd Helton did for the MLB in Colorado is worth an induction, not to mention his absolute run for a few years in the 2000s for RBIs

I still can’t believe billy wagner isnt in the HOF yet. One of the best closers of all time, and did it during the steroids era

Fun fact: Billy Wagner is right-handed but taught himself how to throw lefty and wound up sticking with it.

Mark Buehrle deserves to be in the HOF just for drinking "Definitely no more than 3" beers then getting a world series save, sabermetrics be damned.

If Mark Buehrle makes it in, I'm partying. Growing up watching him put out year after year of great but not necessarily elite stuff, as soon as he moved to Toronto, I had him pegged for the highest echelons of the Hall of Very Good. I still don't want to get my hopes up.

Can we, as the internet, come together start a worldwide campaign for a Bobby Abreu HOF Induction?

Thank you for highlighting some of the people that won't make the HOF but deserve respect for great careers!

It's funny that when talking about Andruw Jones you mentioned injury and eye condition, because that's what Edgar Martinez battled the majority of his career. People's argument that he was only a DH so he doesn't matter is worthless being he was forced into the DH role due to a knee injury. David Ortiz on the other hand was a DH because he had the defensive skills of Jesse Winker

I love your videos about some of the history of baseball, like the HoF, I'm from Brazil and just started following baseball in the last decade or so, watching your content feels like discovering more layers of the sport. Keep it up!! It's like hearing my father talk about brazilian football of the 80's, I love it!

I think the steroid tax is a great idea, and I wish the BBWA would actually put some time into a transparent formula to use in all cases. Like I get it, Bonds is a big cheater, but he's also literally the best hitter of all time. It makes the hall feel like a relic when they can't find a way to recognize that while still calling out the cheating.

I have my own version of "the Steroid Tax," in that I attempt to determine which years are suspicious and which are not. With Bonds, my sense is that the 20th-century version of him is probably clean. Using the highly scientific process of observing his body type from baseball cards, it appears 1999 or 2000 comtained the likely critical point. Clemens' "clean" period seems to be his Red Sox years. His career was tailing off a bit, then suddenly enjoyed a crazy uptick with the Jays. (Plus, the Toronto era is when McNamee said he injected Clemens.) Using this, Bonds' 1986-99 alone is HOF-worthy, as is Clemens' 1984-1996. Bonds' had a bWAR of 103.7 and an OPS+ of 166 in that span, putting him on par with the likes of Jimmie Foxx and Ty Cobb, while that bWAR total would still be in the top 20. (Plus three MVP awards and the span in which he was an asset defensively.) With Clemens, we're talking 144 ERA+ and 80.7 bWAR. That ERA+ is almost equal (slightly higher) than his reportedly juiced years, where as the 80.7 total in 13 seasons is ahead of what Schilling did in 20 and Verlander has so far amassed in 17. Put simply, even if someone was to outright concede Bonds' and Clemens' PED usage, they still assembled Hall of Fame bodies of work. You can't say the same for any other of the suspected players from the late 1990s and early 2000s.

28:55 J.J. Hardy was one of my favorite players to watch on the O’s. He might not make it a second year on the ballot, but I will always remember he hit that home run back in 2012 that Mike Trout made the iconic catch of, which stands out to me as one of the first moments I realized that Trout was gonna be special.

It’s still so sad that Joe Nathan didn’t make it to the 5% threshold. Like Bailey said last year, there was a time where Joe Nathan was consistently the 2nd best reliever in baseball despite him not having a huge postseason career. I hope K-Rod and Wagner do make it because relievers are such a huge part of the game, but get no love for the hall

BBWA doesnt even deserve our time. Bonds was a first ballot HOF with 100 bWAR before he started using steroids. Clemens is a top 5-10 pitcher of all time and a huge portion of players he was competing against were also using. There is so much favoritism when they ignore Ortiz's potential positive test but punish guys who were using when the league didn't care about it and were de facto encouraging it by promoting the Mcgwire Sosa home run race.

I got to "Everyone ahead of him is either in the Hall of Fame or Mike Trout" and choked a bit on my water. I know it wasn't _intended_ to be funny, but it was.

I loved this video last year, can't wait to watch this year's!

I don’t think people talk about Jacoby Ellsbury’s 2011 season enough. Dude was insane. I was lucky enough to see him play in person that season and 11 year old me was def in awe of his play

I think Bobby Abreu should definitely get in, 8 seasons over .400 OBP, and eight seasons in a row of 100+ walks

such a nerdy thing that means nothing but amazing vid happy these are going to be yearly :)

Loved your thoughtful breakdown.

Re Buerhle - my high pitching coach’s philosophy was “work quick and pound the strike zone” the logic being that you keep your defense from zoning out and keep them moving around

This was the first time listening to one of your videos. I am 57 years old and have loved baseball since I was very young. Excellent analysis of the ballot and very well presented. I think you are going to be 100% right. We shall see. Keep up the great content.

I do agree that there were people above Beltran that could've stopped the sign stealing but according to Rosenthal's reporting it would've never happened if it wasn't for Beltran and Cora.

Jayson Werth! One of my all-time favorites. His walkoff HR against the Cardinals in game 4 of the 2012 NLDS was the greatest moment of my life as a sports fan until we won against the cheaters in 2019. Hilarious, awesome guy

The worst part of hof voting is the 10 vote max. Why should we have to compare the players to the other players on the ballot rather than only comparing them to the rest of the hall of fame? What if there are more than 10 hof caliber players on the ballot?

Unironically been incredibly excited for this video

31:03 Also gotta give Jayson Werth props for one of the best postgame interviews in baseball history, if you know the one.

I'm very surprised Bronson Arryo was on the list, fan favorite in Cincinnati! Glad to see him get a little recognition

What a great in-depth video

I remember seeing a hilarious quote about Curt Schilling on an OOTP loading screen once "Every 5th day he was our horse. Every other day, he was a horse's ass" -his former manager (jim fregosi i think??)

Bagwell,Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, and yes,Jim Thome. Saw ALL of these guys play,in person. They were juicing. Also, Ricky Henderson,Tim Raines

Every time I click on your ballot videos I think to myself "no way I make it through all 40 mins" and yet every time I watch the full thing and find myself fully invested in a guy that I never saw play

Funniest possible outcome for the contemporary era thing would be Rafael Palmeiro being the only inductee

You should do a video on starters that switched to closing and vice versa.

When I think about Bond’s chances with the veterans committee names on it like Frank Thomas jump out at me. They were diametrically opposed in their philosophy of baseball. Their interview about Players as Role models floating around the Spheres makes me wonder if Frank will be a supporter or opponent of his inclusion.

Gosh, when you talked about Beltran and pulled up the JAWS stats… the only thing I saw is that KENNY LOFTON SHOULD BE A HALL OF FAMER!!!! Aaaahhhhhhhhhh

The voters held a grudge against Kenny Lofton a lot longer than you're proposing for Beltran, and all he did was impugn Joe Torre's character, compared to cheating your way to a world series ring.

Billy Wagner was coached by one of my guidance counselors in high school. Mr. Tolley's office would make an acceptable Billy Wagner museum all by itself

Love the 5 stripes kit.

Rolen, Helton, Wagner are some of the greatest I've ever seen play. Those four deserve to be in the hall, I would even argue that Abreu should be in there too.

I’m more curious if Mets fans would have a mini civil war over wether or not they should be happy for Beltran getting into the HOF(it’s gonna happen. No manager job is probably the extent of his punishment). I know plenty of ‘em have forgiven his transgressions and even wanted him as the manager but 2006 still makes alot of their kind cartoonishly mad/sad.

I want a "Rock n Jock" wing in the Hall of Fame. It would be filled with all the coolest players from when I was a kid that were nowhere near as good as I remember. Jose Canseco, David Justice, David Wells, Rod Beck, Benjamin Franklin Rodrigues... Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn... the kid with the robot arm from Rookie of the Year.

You gotta put mattingly in if you combine the managing too and he’s still not done actually I forgot where he went tho

I appreciate you talking and Mark Buehrle, so I hope you don’t mind me making a further case for him in your comments. There are some statistics that don’t immediately pop off the Baseball Reference page that highlight how unique and historic Mark Buerhle’s career was. Let’s start with consistency. Between 2001 and 2015 Mark Buehrle pitched 3232 innings. In the same timeframe the next highest innings total belonged to CC Sabathia who pitched 2988.2 innings, a difference of 243.1 innings. Buehrle went so deep into games with such consistency that over the course of his career he pitch an additional season worth of baseball. Buehrle was also the first pitcher ever with 200 innings and 61 or fewer walks in 14 straight seasons. The current streak for consecutive 200 inning seasons belongs to Sandy Alcantara who has done it two(2) seasons in a row. Next, we can talk about unique baseball accomplishments. Buehrle was a great fielder, as evidenced by his 4 gold glove awards. On April 18th, 2007 Mark Buehrle faced 27 batters and recorded 27 outs against the Texas Rangers in the first no hitter of his career. The lone walk was earned by Sammy Sosa, who Mark Buehrle immediately asked to leave the basepaths thanks to his elite pick off move. So close to perfect. But that’s okay, because 2 seasons later, on July 23rd, 2009, Buehrle would just do it again, but better, against the Tampa Bay Rays and earn the 18th perfect game in MLB history. To this day Mark Buehrle is the only pitcher in the 152 year history of the MLB to pitch multiple no-hitters and earn multiple gold gloves. Then there is all the other cool shit Mark Buehrle did. Save in Game 3 of the World Series, aided by an illicit substance(Busch Lite) - side note, he’s the only player left from the 2005 World Series Champion White Sox who is eligible for the Hall of Fame, it would be a shame is nobody on that roster made it into the Hall of Fame. 9 opening day starts, most in White Sox history. Rain delay slip & slide. Insane pace of play that the league is currently trying to legislate into the game. We can all agree that the Baseball Hall of Fame is meant to celebrate the greatest baseball players of all time. We can also all agree that the sabermetrics era has made it undeniable who the greatest players of all time are. So what is the point of the hall of fame now, if not to reflect a human element that is not reflected on a baseball reference page? Mark Buehrle is simply one of the most unique payers baseball has ever seen, if the Baseball Hall of Fame isn’t for him, then who is it for?

I hope Dave Stieb gets in eventually, but I think the fans probably want him in more than the veterans do, we’re gonna need to do some serious campaigning if Stieb is gonna get in

If Barry Bonds isn't a Hall of Famer, just tear the building down. It's meaningless.

Beltran was the guy who brought the sign stealing scheme from New York to Houston

Just talked to Frank Thomas (yes that Frank Thomas) and he said Bonds should’ve made it, he’s a no doubt HOFer

Loved the Palmeiro comments

I’d like to see how a group of baseball fans given the same rules and criteria as the writers would do in creating their own HOF. Start at like the 1980 ballot and run through their own ballots. Then see how their results compare to the current HOF when they get to the current year or 5 years beyond.

So steroids weren’t officially banned by MLB til 05 right? this pettiness by the access media needs to stop.

That baffles me how texeira, Howard, and fielder got kicked off just after 1 time on the ballet. You could easily make a case for hof

My mock ballot Abreu, Beltran, Buehrle, Helton, Kent, A-Rod, K-Rod, Rolen, Rollins, Wagner

Bailey, I’d like to hear your opinion on does it “matter” if a player gets in on their first ballot or their final ballot. Also how much percentage a hall of famer gets in on, whether it be 75% or unanimous

Thank you for the video and acknowledging Bobby Abreu 👍🏽👍🏽

Agreed on most. I differ and put in Torri Hunter, and abstain on Abreu. As a 90's kid who watched both of their careers I think Hinter was more significant and impactful. Glad Rolen got in and GREAT CALL!

I had /no/ idea about the Omar Vizquel stuff, but o h m a n

I would vote for RA Dickey and jayson werth. Dickey is one of just a few people to master the knuckle and werth has an awesome beard let alone the werthquake to send the nationals to game 5, and he was a cornerstone of the franchise for so many years.

Alex Rodriguez put up a HoF career at SS, then moved over to 3rd base and put up another HoF career at that position.

Statistics aside, just from the eye test, Gary Sheffield and Manny Ramirez are 2 of the best hitters I've seen in my lifetime.

If I'm not mistaken, did arod come out and said that he started taking peds before his pro career?

I think with the most recent WS Altuve won his HOF back

If A-Rod and David Ortiz can get in, Barry Bonds and Clemens should be in on the contemporary ballot in the next 5 years.

Hey Bailey, I know the character clause is usually used against players getting in, but I want to flip it around here. Who would be your top choices to be inducted based on their character

You cannot vote A-Rod if you wouldn’t vote for Bonds. Bonds should be in imo given just how much he was head and shoulders above others who we know did take steroids.

My thing for buehrle, if jack morris is in for World Series stuff, the entire WS rotation from 05 should be in cuz they went tf off in the playoffs. And he’s also significantly better in the reg szn than Morris

Gary Sheffield at 68% time to update your video

IMHO Torii Hunter deserves a deeper look. I feel he is just like Andruw Jones but without the pop. Also Torii aged nicely and dominated defensively in CF in the AL like the same amount of time as Jones

I was just wondering if you could make a video about Edmonds or talk about him in one of these HOF videos. I see his name on that Jaws leaders stats. I've been screaming into the void that he didn't deserve to be 1 and done on the ballot. The HOF voting is a really weird system with artifacts like that which I don't think do much good for baseball as a whole. Who you are on the ballot with shouldn't matter, should it? 10 first ballot hofers retiring at the same time would really fuck over any 2nd balloters who retired at that time

17:25 - 17:30 - "...Prick(ly) Personality..." I caught that!!

"He got paid, he got fat, and he stopped caring." That's why I'll never get into the Architectural Drafter Hall of Fame.

That look at the JAWS CF leaders makes me rue that Kenny Lofton still isn't in the HoF...

Jeff Kent not making the HOF because he was a bad teammate while Jack Morris is on the contemporary baseball committee would be very on brand for the BBHOF

Torii Hunter was an amazing player, great, unbelievably good center fielder with a really solid bat to boot, played great for multiple seasons. I'd love to see him make the Hall of Fame but it doesn't seem like he will, it would really sadden me if Torii got added to the list of great 00's twins players to not make the hall, Johan, Morneau, Nathan didn't make it. At this point if Torii and Mauer got added to that list I would riot. This will be the year for him to make a gain and hopefully improve on his HOF case. Really hoping the best for him

You were right about Fred McGriff. I’m glad he got in. I think Rolen will get in this year and I think Helton will get in within 3 years.

Feel like you should give Jroll more of a look.

i know this is gonna sound dumb but i just realized that WAR should never be used to compare players that aren't in the same position. Like, ok, maybe one was better than the other relatively speaking for their time at that position, but for overall greatness we should be considering stats that aren't position dependent. I don't know if WPA can be calculated on older players, but I think, to me, that's the ultimate, maybe balanced with cWPA. Because in the end even counting stats don't matter as much as making the plays that matter, at bat or in the field.

This video camo out on Larry Walker's birthday by the way.

So if you say that 70 bWAR is a no doubt stat to get you into the HoF Scott Rolen finished at 70.1 I think that he is a HoFer but people don’t

14:00 so it’s a popularity contest essentially?

Andy Pettitte’s PR guy deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. I don’t care if this is the only time he used HGH, but the blind trust of his statement is so hypocritical from the media. I love Andy Pettitte, but this blind trust is hilarious.

When Beltre gets in, do you think he will go in as a Dodger or Ranger?

if i had a vote i would vote for beltran, helton, jones, kent, rolen, and wagner

crazy to think the astros scandal broke almost 4 years ago now, feels like yesterday

KRod's problem isn't that he wasn't able to hold on for a few more years, it's that he speant a few years in his early 30's as a set up guy with Milwaukee and Detroit.

I want Scott Rolen in just because he’s from where l’ve lived since 3rd grade in Indiana.

I think R.A. Dickey deserves to stay on the ballot. I hope he gets 5% and gets a couple more years. I don't think he'll ever get in, but truly a unicorn of the baseball world. A knuckleballer who, in his peak, threw the illusive pitch like no other knuckleballer ever had. While he didn't maintain that standard he set in Queens when he won the Cy Young, he did show that he could be a consistent above average starter. I think his story, and the fact that he threw a now virtually extinct pitch should spark enough curiosity and interest to keep him on the ballot, or at least I hope it does. Hope Jones takes another step forward, and I really hope my childhood favorite player Fred McGriff finally gets the HOF designation he deserves. It's a shame he's not already in.

8:42 maybe puts it in a little bit of perspective but imagine Benji Molina had the offensive output of Andrew Jones, would he be considered by far the best Molina? Yes.

Jacoby Ellsbury was everything a Boston fan could ask for. A great base stealer, bat, postseason player, and got the Yankees to give him a big contract just in time for him to collapse. Thanks Jacoby, if I were a voter, I'd vote for you first ballot just for that!

If Jack Morris is on the Veterans Committee, there's no way Dave Stieb is getting a look in. Even though by all measures Dave Stieb was the pitcher of the 80s, not Jack Morris.

I’m at minute 23 and you are talking about steroids. Jhonny peralta also used PEDs long after suspensions were normalized and extremely harsh. Than cardinals gave him that huge contact

Bro how is your skin so smooth like what’s your routine dm my guy

My ballot would be Rolen, Helton, Wagner, Jones, A-Rod, Kent, Rollins, Buehrle, and Beltran

How come every single character clause guys on this years ballot were former giants (Vizquel, Kent, and Beltran).