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2023 Market Outlook: A New Problem Will Emerge 

Michael Ruger - Greenbush Financial Group
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While the markets are still very focused on the battle with inflation, a new problem is going to emerge in 2023 that is going to take its place. The markets have experienced a relief rally in November and December but we expect the rally to fade quickly going into 2023.
I’m writing this article on December 15 2022 and this week, we received the inflation reading for November and the Fed’s 0.50% interest rate hike. Headline CPI, the primary measure of inflation, dropped from 7.7% in October to 7.1% in November which is a meaningful decline, most likely signaling that peak inflation is behind us. So why such a grim outlook for 2023? One word……History. If you look at the historical trends of meaningful economic indicators and compare them what the data is telling us now, the message to us is it will be nothing short of a Christmas miracle for the U.S. economy to avoid a recession in 2023.
Contact Michael Ruger with Questions: 518-477-6686 or mruger@greenbushfinancial.com
Visit our website: www.greenbushfinancial.com/
Subscribe to our channel for more financial planning tips: / @greenbushfinancialgroup
#stockmarket #recession #investing #greenbushfinancial

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15 дек 2022

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Комментарии : 8   
@marycarman802
@marycarman802 Год назад
Very nice explanation. Easily understood.
@anthonydebonis1421
@anthonydebonis1421 Год назад
Love how you break this down and use history to inform us all on these challenging times.
@greenbushfinancialgroup
@greenbushfinancialgroup Год назад
Thanks Anthony!! 👍👍👍 (Comment is for education. Not advice)
@marypohja2812
@marypohja2812 Год назад
Thank you Michael. Reports show spending was down in November. Do you think this will be a trend and possibly help ?
@greenbushfinancialgroup
@greenbushfinancialgroup Год назад
The lower November retail number just reinforces that the consumer is starting to break and we are potentially getting closer to the start of the recession. We can also see that consumer debt levels have spiked over the past 4 months which would imply that the consumer has run out of savings and is now taking on debt to meet the higher costs caused by inflation. (Comment is for education. Not advice)
@LuisluigiTexas
@LuisluigiTexas Год назад
Perfectly explained in a few words. At what point would you start buying bond tickers such as TLT
@LuisluigiTexas
@LuisluigiTexas Год назад
The graphics show not that the market bottoms after unemployment peaks. It bottoms in most cases when unemployment is on the way up. So a peak needed in unemployment this time could be between 5-7. Maybe when we see it getting to 4.5 to 5 stocks will bottom.
@RugerRamble
@RugerRamble Год назад
That is a great observation. We noticed that trend as well. Historically the median point in the rise in unemployment rate is where the market bottoms.
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