Allan Lichtman: 2024 election hinges on four ‘key’ issues: Presidential historian | Vargas Reports 

If you delay your prediction until just before the election it's not hard. Polls are clearly superior to this stuff. It doesn't even make sense as he's talking about it. Like he says Harris loses the incumbency key, but will benefit from lack of unrest or a foreign policy success. So she... is the incumbent? And we all know scandals don't matter in any predictable way right now. You can define any of these things any way you want and then make them point to a guess that, surprise, is in line with the polls.

He tells the truth as he sees it, quite remarkable.

9 out of 10. That's 90%.

He should just give his prediction, he's is going to grift for 6 months about who lost what key, what key is a half a key etc etc

Eventually, he’s going to admit Trump will win it. Sit back.

The success of your modified keys is just a classic example of over-fitting the data. Nothing ground breaking or useful.

@@moneybags183 maybe. But we had a surprise result in 2017 where the incumbent won popular vote but didn’t win the election. This model predicted that.

😂

I've been doing similar things with UK politics.

all you have to do is generalize things enough. What exactly would qualify as a "scandal"? Would Kam replacing Biden with no primary be considered a "scandal"? Maybe if the Republicans impeached her for it then it becomes a scandal?

These are not facts he is taking his own interpretation of events and making up some value from it

1,4, 9-13 are all obviously false. Now #3 has fallen too, and you can even make an argument against the two keys relating to the economy. You do the math.

@@Mark-kq6ch I offer my counterpoint: - Key 4: RFK Jr.'s numbers are... wack. Maybe a little _too_ wack; his numbers are too inconsistent. And with Biden out and Harris (a younger candidate with more electorate excitement going for her) now in the race, that might just be enough for Kennedy's independent/undecided support to bleed even more. - Key 8: From what I've seen, the pro-Palestine/Israel protests do not quite reach that level of sustain or violence; this is no Bonus Army of 1932, anti-Vietnam/CRM, or even BLM, let alone the Civil War. - Key 9: What scandal? Hunter Biden? Nah, that's just Joe's kid doing his own thing, and Republican attempts to tie the whole thing to him is yet another one of those partisan politicking, and voters do not care for that sort of crap. As for the age thing, that didn't feel like a scandal to me like Watergate or Lewinsky are, just the Democrats being spineless as per usual. Him being old was very much a Captain Obvious(TM) thing. - Key 13: At what level is Donald Trump considered as BROADLY charismatic as either Roosevelt, or even Ronald Reagan? Oh, he commands a loyal base, alright, but do you see droves of Trump Democrats like you would often see Reagan Democrats, or the broad approval of Dwight D. Eisenhower (who was courted by both parties in 48 and 52 before he chose the Republicans in the latter election)? Yeah no, he's nowhere near that level.

The media should bow down to Allan because he deals in “facts”? Seems like you’ve been drinking the Kool-Aid and mistaking it for political analysis. Numbers may not lie, but the way you interpret them can be pure fantasy.

Total nonsense!!! He chose to conveniently ignore / disregard a number of those on his list of *keys*. Displaying a bias. He's guessing between two people, and he's gotten lucky. His list is a load of bunk if he himself isn't following it. He doesn't seem to want to follow his own system because that will likely make him very unpopular indeed and accused /labeled the Trump Lover & I think he'd prefer being wrong to being hated and seen as a Trump predictor. She isn't liked for good reason. This many people can't be wrong. Afghanistan was a catastrophe, a humiliating & shameful defeat to a global audience, Ukraine is a scam proxy war draining tax payers to fund criminal elites hedge funds with many civilians dead & the country destroyed, they funded Iran and orchestrated the attack as an excuse to wage war (my opinion but it's been a disaster and drain on the American tax payer), they lifted sanctions on Iran, they've done nothing about China spying on us, buying up everything here, controlling our politicians, infiltrating socialism & oppression, our military is weakened and we no longer have the personnel recruitment, man power or funded weaponry we once had, our funding of NATO and roll is an abused joke!!! We are not on stable terms with any powers of a potential threat, North Korea, Iran, Russia, China, they are all gunning for domination, influence & total annihilation of America, now more than ever. This man just omitted a number of his own keys!!! I think he just couldn't bare to be seen as Mister Trump's dedicated predictor in what I think. He'd rather be wrong than be seen as predicting Trump in the hostile climate we are currently in. This is all just my opinion.

Georgia will be in play. Many Floridians think that Florid will be in play, but they are deluded.

@@guitarslim56 with Fani Willis, and the other disasters in Georgia, looks like they are ready to correct 2020. Make it too big to rig in Georgia. It’s going to be great. Democratic followers will have to accept the results of a Democratic election. 😂😂😂 How about that. No fear of losing democracy. What a freaking lie by the democrats.

True

over a hundred years of the keys prove you wrong

We only have to look at 2022 when in all those states you listed not a single statewide election for Senate, or Governor went to a Trump endorsed candidate. I thought Dr OZ wasn't all that extreme in Arizona Hobbs refused to debate Kari Lake most had concluded Lake was going to win. It really does come down to what party voters feel is doing a good job not so much the candidate.

No my guy K.Harris is not Indian as you claim. She is American, born in America to a Jamaican father and an Indian mother. So, K. Harris is as much as and I am American, don't try to deceive people like your DonOld does.

That is so amazingly profound! It explains the "significance of the passage of time", one of the great mysteries of our day. Right alongside "the bus will go here and the bus will go there because that's what buses do". Mind-blowing!!!

​@@may-julymoney295,😂 🎯

this has been debunked. She didn't say that

@@rob8582 “It is time for us to do what we have been doing. And that time is every day.” - Kamala Harris

@@rob8582 Would you bet on it?

😂👍

Who cares? Lichtman’s model has accurately predicted every POTUS election prospectively since 1984 and it’s also retrospectively predicted every POTUS election going back to 1860. That’s one hell of a track record. He is correct in what he says and conventional wisdom is not.

Who _would_ their eyes be glazing over? Lichtman has a damn good record with these predictions.

@@Deined Had you just picked the betting odds favorit each time your record would have been just as good. His predictions when picking the underdog went right 50% of the time. so nothing impressiv about his predictions actually.

@@NoName-eq5oyAl gore was the only prediction he got wrong, and frankly gore should have won 2000 and only lost it because of a biased Supreme Court

Which is why he says they he won't make a final prediction until after the DNC.

​@@courtneybrubaker9738IT'S AFTER THE DNC

Inflation is down to 3%

Recall in 1980s the double digit inflation, interest rates and unemployment: The Misery Index

I was wondering the same thing. Why did Lichtman ignore these 2 keys? And what about the social unrest from the Hamas sympathizers? I see 6 keys that Harris is losing, therefore based on Lichtman’s theory, Harris would lose the election.

Who was the president that got us INTO Afghanistan?

@@jesusacosta5176 from where...note that i bought gas and food this week.

He uses it for his side gig, if it sees its shadow six more weeks of winter…

Trumpers don't like hearing the truth?

Like the democrats he doesn't even hide the deception with that area rug on hid head.

It’s his real hair.

Its his real hair

Sounds like Copy cat Kamala bribed him, so maybe he'll invest in a hair transplant.

3 weeks later and it's still his real hair btw

I'm using his method and have calculated that 1,3,4,8-13 are all obviously false. You do the math.

Nah. He's consistent with his partisan beliefs. But that hasn't impacted his prediction. I mean...he predicted Trump's months in advance

he predicted Trump and eveyone said he was nuts. How is he partisan????

1,3,4,8-13 are all obviously false.

He looks at the whole picture, but I do agree that he is downplaying the effects of inflation.

@@Mark-kq6chas well as 9 and 10 he’s got the nerve to say no one will remember the failure of getting out of Afghanistan but he says they will remember build back better for the policy change key also for key 9 he says that the Dems arranging a coup against Biden to force him out is not a scandal, if it was trump in office he would have flipped those keys, this guy is clearly partisan, he’s trying to discourage people from voting, GET OUT AND VOTE we can’t risk our country being ruined and a rights being taken away.

A simple recount would've fixed that, but the supreme court denied him. It was a difference of 537 votes. Trump got full recounts on two states with 17k and 11k differences.

Gore won! Don’t forget that. So did H. Clinton! Dang electoral colleges

Senility is still there with trump

He has a book explaining each of his keys. He has had these keys for decades, so I don’t think he nitpicked them specifically for Joe Biden decades back 😂

But when he predicted Trump winning in 2016 and in 2020, you didn’t say nothing

He predicted Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020

He’s never wrong. How often are you correct?

It was a gop failure when the killed the bipartisan bill intending to help it. tRump DEMANDED they kill their own bill so he had something to run on.

​@@P.90.603Silence Border Czar shill

Sure, but then you also have Afghanistan. No honest person will say that wasn't a major failure. Plenty of other failures you could point to as well. This guy is not being honest.

@@Mark-kq6chAnd you are wondering how woke guy can be honest?

@@P.90.603it’s literally been up over 300% lately 😂

I believe it's true if Harris is not contested within the party = the party is united behind Harris. This will probably be reflected most directly in the number of delegates she wil have, so the more, the better.

Well he’s never wrong

That lady oozes nothing but cringe

​@@mrsir6112He also conveniently disregarded a number of keys on his own system that to which democrats have indeed done since being in office. They've definitely had military and foreign policy failures. He doesn't want to be accused of being Mister Trump predictor and he's willing to be wrong rather than be hated and vilified as the Trump guru as that was the win that really put this guy on the map! Copy cat Kamala has no accomplishments to merit awarding her the presidency. She's done a horrifying job. The only trolls who'd speak highly of her and want her clearly hate America and want it destroyed.

Keys are a social construct and made up

1,3,4, 8-13 are all obviously false.

@@Mark-kq6ch To actually present a meaningful answer based on his system, you would need to frame your answer based on his specific criteria. Otherwise you're just making things up based on your emotions and preconceived notions / preferences, as well as based on a misinterpretation of what each of the keys actually means. It's like if I read a law that says 'murder is illegal' at the top, but ignore all of the underlying rules relating what defines murder in this context. I.e., what about self-defense, times of war, defense of other, mistakes, crimes of passion, mentally deficient perpetrators, etc. The real world tends to be more nuanced than YT comment sections. I'd recommend you read his book so you can make an informed opinion, or go to his live stream and ask for an explanation more in-depth than this short video.

@@facio1000 People don't realize that facts don't care about your feelings. It's the same thing every cycle, half the people denying him because they are from opposition parties, and half the people calling it fake.

​@@tanaproma3933 I feel like the social media / internet echo chamber effect has been a big part of leading many people (or at least many of the loudest people) to sincerely believe that they are being rational when they're really backwards rationalizing by picking their preferred solution and then finding a bunch of reasons to support it, while discarding anything inconvenient. Not to say this wasn't a big problem before (it was), but it just feels like its worse now.

1,3,4,8-13 are all obviously false. #4: RFK is at or near 10%, but when you add in West and Stein (both left wing), the total will be at least 10%. #8: Protests about the war in Gaza. #9: Bribery schemes, the documents case against him, his son's conviction and upcoming trials. #10: No major military failure? Seriously? Afghanistan. You can add in Ukraine and Gaza, frankly, as those could have been avoided. #11: "Foreign/military success": .................? Name one....? #13: Challenger charisma....hate him all you want, but the challenger has charisma. Lichtman won't even admit that, and because. of that and all the above, he has made a mockery of his own system.

@@Mark-kq6ch "avoided" by letting Putin just do whatever lol. You really can avoid a lot of conflicts by just letting the bad guys win. Stellar foreign policy!

@@s0515033 So your perception is that Trump just let the bad guys win. Interesting.

@@Mark-kq6ch He is pro putin and isolationist. That would be the plan.

@@s0515033 Of course, that's not what happened during his first term. But you are the fortune teller.

It's a wig lol

It’s a wig

It’s his real hair

Schroedinger's hair. It is simultaneously hair and wig. Upon observation, however, the waveform never collapses. It both is, and isn't, his hair. It's enough to drive one mad.

How shallow!! Are you a MAGA

Katie and her keyboard keys lol

Doesn’t qualify; read the book.

@@P.90.603 BLm had nothing to do with Trump though. COVID-19 i what cost him re-election

@@nickd2296 Not according to the keys; the widespread protesters spawning riots leading to wide political unrest did, though covid probably hurt on the margins too.

@@MarkSav1 What I’m saying is that Trump had nothing to do with George Floyd dying. It was just extremely unlucky I guess

​@@nickd2296 His handling of the protests did count as social unrest

not really. 2020 was way harder to predict so was 2016 with the first woman running and he got both correct.

Have you met JD's couch?

it's a wig

It is a normal one. 2024 is far more normal than 2020 for example.

he explained this already. People always feel this one election is not normal. "This is not a normal election, we have a black man running." Yet the keys hold true.

Ha! No election is a "normal election."

It's not about whether the election is normal. It's about whether he's following his own system - he is not. 1,3,4,8-13 are all false. You do the math.

TRUE!!

Why doesn't this guy call out Key #10 Foreign Policy Failure against the Democrats when we all saw the failure in Afghanistan?

I think the fact he does not like Trump is messing his keys up. He has implemented himself into this election and that's not good. And political environment is changing his keys do not account for that.

What truth ?!?

@@hereLiesThisTroper I agree with this statement. The Afghanistan withdrawal was the single policy that really swayed Biden’s approval. More so than inflation, immigration, or Gaza. That one should (and will) fall. He thinks that one will inevitably fall. I think it has already fallen. But the 3 other keys will stand or are much more likely to stand. Especially if a ceasefire happens, then there will be no social unrest issues.

when the republican supreme court and Bush’s literal brother who’s the governor of the state work together to prevent any recalls…

Not even close

The economic key is based on real gdp growth (factors in inflation) compared to the last administration. He also stated the foreign success leans false

The thing is there are two keys, foreign failure and one for foreign success. You can have a split. You can fuck it up, yet still have a success under you. The failure keys is more than likely to go agaisnt, but there are talks of a ceasefire, which would give the Biden administration a success and turn the key. Also with the economy, the keys have never dealt with overall perception. The are purely math. Is the current real gdp growth bigger than the last two terms, and is there a recession this year? Both of them go with Biden.

@@DallasCowboyFan95 interesting. I watched an interview from him on NBC from a couple days ago and he says that she’s losing five keys there, but here he says there’s only three. This was either recorded before that NBC interview or he changed his mind. Bizarre.

And what foreign policy/military success has there been? No scandals? Really? No social unrest? And the biggest whopper....the challenger doesn't have charisma? Hahaha...I think his system is great, but he is making a mockery of it. Why, I don't know.

@@jrex7486 At this point, I think he's trying to cover for democrats when those 3 am ballots come rolling in.....

Why?

Don’t vote, she’s up by 90 pts

You're insane!

Stupid is stupid does.. I AM voting TRUMP 2024 I am JEWISH ✡️ AND ALL MY PEOPLE ARE VOTING TRUMP 2024... JUST SAYING

Good point. She certainly didn't help McCain.

Bringing back a convict that failed the first time in office? That would be beyond insanity. Never go back, got to move forward with new ideas

He hasn't made a prediction.

@@paulg6527 He hasn’t but the way he’s talking it sounds like he’s making a prediction.

You might be surprised.

A point of the model is a partisan opinion of failure doesn't qualify as failed administration. The growth numbers in economy say no failure hence those keys favor Harris.

RFK is right around 10. But if you add in West and Stein, 3rd party support is even higher.

He's also lying about military failures (Afghanistan), challenger charisma, social unrest, and major scandal. Other than that, he's a very honest guy.

@@Mark-kq6ch The latest NY Times poll puts RFK at about 5%, while the latest Wall Street Journal poll puts him at 4%. His numbers are seriously down from right after the debate (go to Politico). West shouldn't be much of a factor by Nov.

@@georgeschaut2178 Even if it turns out that way, #4 doesn't even matter. At this point, 1,3, and 8-13 are all false. Also, I would bet that the support RFK is losing is going more to Trump than Harris.

Trump's supporters are definitely not more likely to flock to RFK, they are far more certain & determined, loyal & die hard than copy cat Kamala. They have to pay people in welfare benefits to attend those rallies. The propaganda machine is spinning her as a sudden Saint Roosevelt and have no shame of embarrassment in their literal overnight drastic 180!!! Nobody's buying it. I rose out of poverty when Trump was in, and life was generally more optimistic.

Irrelevant because it's actually 9 keys that are already down. 1,3,4,8-13 are all obviously false.

Professor Lichtman constantly says he doesn't go by how people feel they are based on the actual government statistics and the last two presidential terms regarding economy. If he went by opinion his keys would not be accurate.

In 1984, the key was true. Do you mean 1992? He has shown some inconsistencies for this key and I'm inclined to ask him about it. In his book, he said this key is primarily determined by people's perception. In his live stream, he said you can't depend on people's perception for this key. My only guess is that he means you can't depend on people's perception if there's a recession but when it comes to identifying trends, their opinion matters. There was clearly a recession in 1990, but it wasn't obvious it was over by election time per the polls. We did not have a recession during Biden's term and the trend is obviously improving from where we were during Covid.

What do you mean people "feel"? The economy is one of the few areas where peoples' opinions and feelings are instinctively correct. Because it's something all people experience, every day, all the time. They know if they're better off or worse off, if food, gas, house, healthcare prices are higher or lower, relative to their pay.

read his book. Its based off national economic reports not people's feeling about the economy.

@@Doodfist The fact is that real household income is down because of inflation, mortgage rates, and many other factors. Usually when GDP is up that is not true. But this key doesn't even matter because 1,3,4,8-13 have already fallen. You do the math.

Save it from what? He couldn't even save it from COVID-19

Trump is done lmao

Goodbye Trump

Your would if you are now invested in the market.

He said he's waiting til after DNC as daily things are up in the air.

He predicted Trump for the win when polls and experts said it would be Hillary.

Have you seen Don "Corky Romano" Jr. lately? 😂

@Andrina-fl9ef this wasn't a left vs right thing lol the dude seriously looks like a serious drunk. Do u agree?

​@Mike-ye8qv No, he doesn't, but Don Jr. clearly has substance abuse issues.

Is that the best you can do? It takes one to know one!!

He called for Biden to stay in bc he would win the incumbent key.

So what. all elections are different.

You can say that about every election.

The Keys have worked flawlessly for 160 years even though USA political systems, society and the world have changed drastically through that time.

That was said about Obama and Hillary and Reagan. The keys called them all.

100%.

That will change. Trump will win

He doesn't tell you that 4 prior elections both foreign policy keys went false and the incumbents all lost

@@user-bl3vk8qc6h Wishful thinking. There's no way

@@andrewleavell5007 yes he will. He's got them posted online. He was very sure too that Biden would say because he spoke to his ex campaign director and two days later he drooped out . Look at 1960 1968 1976 2008. Both foreign policy keys false they all lost. 1968 last dem president Johnson didn't see second term. Convention was in Chicago too and unrest broke out. They have his keys on Wikipedia past elections

@@andrewleavell5007”there’s no way” ? You’re really bold with it, l know you could see into the future and I didn’t know God uses RU-vid 🥴

Trump HAS no charisma. While he commands media attention and has an enthusiastic base, he only appeals to a narrow slice of the electorate, as opposed to having a broad appeal that extends to voters outside his party's base like that of Franklin D. Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan.

He's too old and rambles too much.

@@Andrina-fl9ef He could've have had charisma if he's a nice man.

If you don't like him, he doesn't have charisma.

@@ultramarineinception5298 Like it or not, Trump has NO charisma.

And kids this brings me to my next point.... DON'T DO DRUGS!!!

@@rooster1012 🤣🤣🤣🤣 hit a nerve with the they’s or whatever there called

Not likely.