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Great points overall. Disagree with low transactions this year. 2 years of pent up demand. Low 6s will bring a bunch of buyers back in the spring and will cascade if rates go to 5. It's also going to be hard for home prices to remain stagnant when inflation is going down and wages are increasing. Prices will be forced to the upside.
Another expert we follow came out with his projections yesterday for 4.75M sales. Definitely possible but dependent on the lower rate forecast holding throughout the year. Thanks for watching and sharing your thoughts!
Keep the speculator Ponzi scheme going!! Need to set the record for how many times the same home can be flipped in 2 years! Current record is 4! It’s easy money because home values NEVER go down!
Joseph Wang (former bond trader at the fed) forecasting higher yields and has consistently got this right. Pretty compelling logical analysis as to why (inflation likely to bounce off current trend due to base effects, so real yields not likely to go higher like forecasts suggest, fiscal spending etc) highly recommend folks check him out. Contrarian to consensus tends to do well on these big moves in volatile markets. Still much risk and uncertainty out there (wars, maturity walls, election) suggesting volatility likely not stamped out of markets.
The further out you go....the harder the forecast is! Interest rates will tell the story for sales volume and prices. I'm certain Mr. Wang has compelling thoughts...there are smart folks on both sides of the equation. We'll check it out....the potential issues he's focused on are probably exactly what we should be looking at for potential signs of rebound inflation. Read Lacy Hunt @ Hoisington. His Q4 review will be out in the next week: hoisington.com/economic_overview.html Not saying he'll be right but no one has done better research and analysis over the last 50 years and he's calling for outright deflation, not just disinflation. Thanks for watching and commenting.
