In his 3 wins he was either on the lead or a very close 2nd sitting right off the hip of the leader for most of those races. In his 2 loses he got shuffled back, had to make up ground in the far turn & both times flattened out in the stretch. Now both losses have good excuses. He stumbled out if the gate in the Champagne & Holy Bull was 1st off a 4+ month layoff & Hades was allowed to get an easy lead & set soft fractions. I'm not saying he's a need the lead type but he surely needs to be in the top flight of horses early & here's where I'm concerned for Fiercness. Traditionally, the derby is run at a very fast pace so to be on or near the lead he's going to have to run the fastest fractions he has ever run in a race at the furthest distance he's ever run. The talent is clearly there for him to do it but I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around taking a short price on a horse being asked to do 2 things for the 1st time. Run fractions around 22 & 45 as well as get a mile & a quarter. Now his main competition are 2 deep closers and a Japanese shipper who hasn't faced this the caliber horses that he will in Kentucky. I've heard the connections of Forever Young already say that this horse does not appreciate kickback at all. That's why he ran way wide around the entire track in Dubai to win. If he's not on the lead which he won't be, Forever Young is guaranteed to get dirt kicked in his face in a 20 horse field unless he goes way wide again but if he does that in a 20 horse field he could be end out going 12 wide around the turns & I don't care how good you are, that's a recipe for disaster! As for the 2 deep closers Sierra Leone & Catching Freedom, they will both have to work out a hell of a trip to be able to score. Now if every knowledgeable horse player knows how hard it is to pass 19 other horses you better believe 2 of the best jockies (Gafflione & Prat) & 2 of the best trainers (Brown & Cox) in the world also know this as well so I'd expect them both to try to sit a little closer than usual. If not, the best they can hope for is Rich Strike kind of luck where they save ground around the entire track & somehow the field & the rail part like the red sea! I don't see connections purposely taking a chance that they get that lucky. So now we have the 2nd, 3rd, & 4th choices in the wagering being asked to do something they've never done before as well. This is a really tough derby to figure IMO & if Fiercness & Sierra Leone are bet down to say 3-1 & 7-2 I'm going to have a hard time landing on either of them. Of the top 4 choices, there's a good chance we've already seen 3 of them peak with monster races their last out but I still think Catching Freedom can & should improve off his last effort. He has done so in every race he's run so far & often the Kentucky Derby winner is a horse that saves their best race for the derby. Either way I don't plan to make a big bet on anyone in this race. I do have a $10 futures bet on Catching Freedom at 27-1 so unless he scratches, I already have skin in the game. In years passed, I've had very good days betting the derby undercard only to give half of it back (or more) making big bets on the derby. Not doing that this time. As long as Catching Freedom doesn't scratch, the only bet I plan to make in the derby is a backwheel exacta with ALL 1st & Fiercness 2nd because after Rich Strike, I told myself I will backwheel the favorite 2nd in every derby for the rest of my life lol
Damn, Bass fishing and Horses, my exact combo.... 23rd this past Saturday in BFL..... I agree, and with great Jockey shouldnt be a problem... Might even get 5-2
Fortunately Fierceness has Johnny V on his back and not Irad Ortiz, Jr. (for instance). The former is a wise and assertive rider who knows how to place tactical speed in the Derby, and the latter loves to get his horse into the same spot every race and then swirve in and out, make a big move and race home (many times getting fined for cutting off jockeys or rough riding). If Ortiz was on Fierceness he would be very "iffy" for me...
All I can say is that favorites seldom win the Derby and some have even finished out of the money, like in 2005 (Giacomo) and 2009 (Mine That Bird) when big long-shots won and a long shot also came in 2nd in 2005 to make for the 2nd biggest exotics payouts in Derby history. It’s a horse race so anything can happen.
@bbbailey47...Favorites DO WIN!!. From 2004 to 2018 we had something like 10 of 14 favs win the Derby, and 6 in a row, 7 crossed the wire 1st...: 2004: Smarty Jones (post time fav) 2007: Street Sense (post time fav) 2008: Big Brown (post time fav) 2010: Super Saver (co post time fav) 2013: Orb (post time fav) 2014: California Chrome (post time fav) 2015: American Pharoah (post time fav)* 2016: Nyquist (post time favorite) 2017: Always Dreaming (post time favorite 2018: Justify (post time favorite)* 2019: Maximum Security (post time fav) DQ (but crossed the wire first--did not count).
@revizionaryenterprises9655. Almost. Super Saver was second choice at 8.00/1 in 2010. The favorite, Lookin At Lucky (6.30/1), drew the unenviable #1 hole, got pinched at the break and lost all chance. The winner skimmed the rail all the way around under the deft handling of Calvin Borel, held off fast-closing Ice Box to secure the roses.
@@trackgabe My thoughts exactly. Still afraid of having to use too much energy from 3,4,5 to get into the top tier and if they'll be rain as there usually is.
hey gabe...how much money did you lose in the derby? I had $200 on the 3 to win and keyed him in multiple exactas. Do I need to tell you how the 3 finished. Better luck in the preakness
3/4 111.3 and nobody is near him not much of a grade one field but that being said this is another average group for the derby and if he repeats that he will jog
…..if only it were that easy….. a 20 horse field…..and Fierceness has run some ordinary races….he is going to have pressure on the front end… and he is going to regress…. but he could be fast enough to regress and still win…..his thorograph pattern is not great….. but the best thing going for him is Johnny V in the irons…. the nations best rider; better than Irad…. Velazquez is the best judge of pace in the country… going to be an interesting Derby
Horse is not unbeatable, nor does he put two big wins in a row. Classic in and out form! Can break bad and could get bounced around as favorites sometimes do! Repole horse again, Forte got the scratch action and came up a bit sore on Derby Day last time! Nothing guaranteed other than a ruffly run race where people can JAM YOU UP! IF HE BREAKS POORLY AND GETS KNOCKED AROUND, I DO NOT LIKE HIS CHANCES!
Yes taking a stand against him for a few different reason he will go off the Derby chalk and he's valunarable he had things his own way in the Fla Derby that's not going to happen in Louisville he's a small colt has a pattern of inconsistency which is a concern ?about getting the distance and if he gets caught up in a speed dual on fast splits that's no good don't see no value with him at short odds so looking elsewhere sorry Mike
If the track gets lots of rain, then starts to dry out, can be very very good for horses with late speed. Front speed will not hold, and deep closers ala Mine that Bird will be in play. Off going will favor late speed types that know and have raced well over the CD oval. END OF STORY. CHALK SEEMS TO BLOW IN THE DERBY, SWIMMERS AND BAD ACTORS.
