My Best Actress Predictions for now: 1. Amy Adams - Nightbitch (Bumped her up to number one after hearing she won the TIFF award and she’s an overdue actress. If it could be her career best performance, it could be her time.) 2. Mikey Madison - Anora (I’ve seen her in Once Upon A Time In Hollywood and Scream 5, it’s exciting to see her in a lead role like this. I’ve had her as the front runner after Cannes but I’m keeping her at 2-3.) 3. Lady Gaga - Joker: Folie a Deux (I doubt she’ll get snubbed like she did for House of Gucci. She’ll make Harley Quinn her own and could be a very interesting take.) 4. Angelina Jolie - Maria 5. Saoirse Ronan - Blitz
Oh, you’re really underestimating Joker: Folie Á Deux (and Lady Gaga in particular), aren’t you? 1) The vice president of the WB literally said that they gonna promote the hell out of Joker 2 and even compared it’s future campaign to Barbie, saying “Last year we turned the world pink, this October everyone will be wearing black and white.”, so that means it’s gonna be EVERYWHERE, there’s no way people aren’t gonna be tuned in. 2) It’ll make huuugeeee amount of money, even with the possibility of becoming highest-grossing movie of the year: the first Joker grossed 1 billion dollars, and now they have Lady Gaga, who proved herself to be a box-office power (ASIB did great, $436 million dollars, HoG did $150 million during peak of the pandemic and many theaters closed) and arguablly our new movie star in the making. 3) Joker is a player in almost every technical categories (except VFX) and front-runner in Song and Score (and the runner-up in Sound, Make Up & Hairstyling and Cinematography), so why should it’s wins stop only on the below-the-line categories? The Academy members are going to love it, and it’s proven time and time again that having an industry support going into acting race is crucial. 4) Speaking of industry support, the movies of Lady Gaga’s main competitors aren’t that strong and beloved on paper as many would think: Angelina Jolie’s movie will only recieve a nomination for her, and that’s it (it’s best chance out of Actress category is Costume Design, if costumes are really extraordinary & the competition in that category is low), the same is true for Amy Adams’s, Tilda Swinton’s (for both The End and The Room Next Door) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste’s movies: just an acting nod for them, it’s their films only shot, either them or nothing. Even if Anora maintains it’s hype throughout the year, the movie is now predicted to recieve only 4 nominations (Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay), and keep in mind it’s vulnerable in Actress & Director category and there’s a chance Anora might miss these, so 4 noms it’s best chance. Emilia Pérez will only get International Feature & maybe Song, so that’s 2 noms (yes, I do think Karla Sofía Gascón will be snubbed, but if she’s not, it’s still only 3 noms). So basically Lady Gaga’s movie is the biggest contender of all, so why wouldn’t she win? Her movie has way more support on paper than any other.
I for one am actually interested in GLADIATOR 2, and Denzel Washington is the main reason why. Even his clunkers are usually quite interesting to watch at the very least.
It'd be so fun if Demi Moore gets in for The Substance. It seems to be for her what The Whale was for Brendan Fraser, in that it's a movie that took an actor who was known as just a "movie star" actor for the majority of their career (especially during their peak years) and shows that they can, you know, ACT act. Although, if she doesn't get nominated, maybe it'll do for her what Hereditary did for Toni Collette and open more doors in bigger productions and give her a career comeback in that way. And she may get a Razzie Redeemer Award on top of that, since she was up there with Madonna as the Queen of the Razzies for a while.
Netflix is distributing Emilia Perez in United states Netflix is the sponsor of the Sag awards again this year. Golden globe and sag nominations are more than secured
Cracking up at the whole internet rushing to drop Saoirse. If anything, though, lowering expectations in June helps her. Looking forward to her "not being in the winning conversation" coming back later this year.
I completely agree Angelina Jolie is not winning for Maria. She’s a lock for a nom unless the movie sucks, but we’ve learned this lesson twice before, Pablo Larraín gets his leading ladies who play historical figures a nomination, but never a win. And Jolie isn’t even overdue, she won an Oscar in 2000. If her competition is the leads of supposed Best Picture nominees (Joker 2, Anora, and possibly Emilia Pérez), and Amy Adams, the definition of an actress overdue for an Oscar, Jolie is not winning. Maybe this’ll come back in 8 months and make me look ridiculous, but from where we stand right now, I think anyone predicting Angelina to win is out of their mind.
Angelina won her last oscar 24 years ago, has never won best actress, this is her COMEBACK after years and she's very well respected in the industry, if the movie does better than the last two, she has a great chance just by being her unless portman (who won just a couple years before) and kirsten (who was first time nominated), her winning is not THAT crazy to believe.
@@chris-mm8zl ok, I could be wrong, but I doubt the trend of Larraín’s actresses is a coincidence. Also, even 1 Oscar, no matter how long ago, hurts an overdue or comeback narrative. Just look at Julie Christie.
@@V0LTUnDeAd 2016 and 2021 were hardly big years for best actress, none of the nominees in 2021 and only Emma Stone in 2016 came from Best Picture nominees. If they couldn’t win then, I don’t think Jolie will win over Gaga, Adams, or Madison.
Blitz is going to be such a massive film, here in the UK. We all learn about it in school. But I will be shocked if it has staying power outside the UK. Its gonna be a quintessential British film.
Oppenheimer swept in a season of strong contenders whereas EEAAO was beaten by Banshees at Golden Globes and by All Quiet on the Western Front at the BAFTAs; thus, it wasn't always the consensus pick as opposed to Oppenheimer which dominated.
Do you really think that SAG, which continues to ignore international performances (Huller, Cruz, Banderas, Yalitza Aparicio, Parasite's actors) will nominate Karla Sofía Gascón?
@Sacinematreasure03 you're joking right, oppenheimer signals everything hollywood wants to believe. 'Saved cinema', Nolan doing a prestige drama, with respected veteran actors, about a very important topic. Oppie would have won
@rehnumachowdhury3629 and isn't that what EEAAO did? I respect Chris Nolan as a director and everyone involved in Oppenheimer. But, the movie is no way near EEAAO creatively speaking. Oppenheimer is a biopic and is not an original idea. EEAAO brought something hollywood has never seen before with the minority people being in the forefront of the story. Its not about what Hollywood needs to make a film that touches every aspect of what it means to live a life
@Sacinematreasure03 EEAAO did not save the box office. It didn't make nearly a billion dollars. Oppenheimer was so big culturally and so widely watched internationally. Agree to disgaree, but it would have won, ticks all the boxes. Oppie swept EVERYTHING. EEAAO couldn't even win comedy globe or bafta
I agree. Oppenheimer swept in a season of strong contenders whereas EEAAO was beaten by Banshees at Golden Globes and by All Quiet on the Western Front at the BAFTAs; thus, it wasn't always the consensus pick as opposed to Oppenheimer which dominated.
my Oscars 2025 Best Actress predictions (june 2024) top 5: Amy Adams - Nightbitch Angelina Jolie - Maria Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez Lady Gaga - Joker: Folie À Deux Mikey Madison - Anora next-in-line: Lily Gladstone - Fancy Dance Saoirse Ronan - The Outrun Lupita Nyong'o - A Quiet Place: Day One Ryan Destiny - The Fire Inside Demi Moore - The Substance Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths
Same here. The director has literally had best actress/actor nominations for her movies for her last 2 or 3 movies. There’s gonna be a physical and emotional transformation. Amy Adams is gonna be the one to beat.
My Best Actor Predictions for now: 1. Colman Domingo - Sing Sing (So far this seems like the front runner for Picture and Colman is going to go along with it. I think he does have a lot of respect and has a great presence as an actor. I think it could be his year to win.) 2. Daniel Craig - Queer (I think it’s time to finally give Craig his first Oscar nomination. After loving him as James Bond and Benoit Blanc, him working with Luca Guadagnino could indicate him giving a career-best performance.) 3. Ralph Fiennes - Conclave (He’s coming for his third nomination although he should’ve won for Schindler’s List. Other films I would’ve loved to seen him get nominated like The Grand Budapest Hotel or The Menu. I think he seems likely to get nominated.) 4. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker: Folie a Deux (He won for the first and I don’t think he’ll win again. But I’m excited to see what he has in store for this. Knowing he’s selective with picking roles and likes to immerse himself in characters, there’s something in Joker 2 that made him want to return.) 5. Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice (I would have him higher but lowered after the controversy surrounding the film. At the time of posting this, there’s no distributor yet and I wouldn’t be surprised if it could get delayed. I think Sebastian Stan is a great actor and would love to see him get a shot at an Oscar nomination. I’m glad to hear you do take his performance seriously and avoids being comical.)
Can I start pushing for Amy Adams to win now? I have to see the movie, but I am all in if she is good on this prediction being correct. #AdamsOscar2025!
I hope Greece submit the right film ("Fonisa") for international movie and if been accepted they should give a nomination on the lead actress who is AMAZING!
I know everyone thinks Wicked is just gonna be not a thing, but I definitely feel like an eye should be kept on Cynthia Erivo. It’s a late in the year movie, she got in for Harriet (which wasn’t very good), and in that one, she wasn’t even singing. I’m not saying I think it’s definite by any means, but I don’t think she should be written off.
"Feral Amy Adams"? Like in the Smallville episode " Craving". It'd be awesome if Nicholas Hoult got a Best Actor nomination right before starring as Lex Luthor. Regarding the chances of The Apprentice coming out this year, it concerns me that Megalopolis got distribution first. I can envision Glen Powell getting nominated for Hit Man pretty much only if Twisters is a Top Gun: Maverick-level phenomenon.
Unlikely, but what about Cillian Murphy?Saw his new Irish film is releasing in November by Lionsgate. Perfect timing. And if it's a barren year, surely that's the type of thing the academy would go for over say Glen Powell in hitman. Afterglow type thing.
Have a strong gut feeling Colman Domingo is taking the Oscar. Adams we’ll see, she is overdue for sure and has a great shot to win SAG but don’t think it’s impossible Gaga or Jolie wins still
I have one question, Amazon Prime did not submitted Anne Hathaway's The Idea of You for the Emmy's and they did do a limited theater released for the movie. Am I right in my prediction that they going to submit the movie for Golden Globe/Oscar?
The fact that Angelina is two awards away from EGOT IS ICONIC!!!! Love that for her. I always said that she could win a second Oscar if she was to ever make a serious return to acting. It is time she gets a Best Actress Oscar. I would love to see her win this year but I really wanna see Amy or Saoirse win SOMETHING!!!
Apple is going to push Saoirse Ronan hard. This is the biggest awards contender they’ve had sans killers and they aren’t going to push for the whole suite of nominations and not push their biggest name attached.
@@Sharpe1502It's definitely not a good sign. When a film gets pushed and pushed back for no clear reason and doesn't get any buzz, they are usually letting it die.
Why exactly do you think Jeremy Strong being nominated for best supporting actor for The Apprentice is less likely than Sebastian Stan getting nominated for best lead actor? Strong got at least as much praise if not more than Stan. Multiple reviews praised him to heaven and said he was the best thing about the movie. Do you think him winning Tony is hurting him or helping him? Would people think it would be great for him to be on the brink of winning the Triple Crown of Acting or not? But screenplay being more likely than Jeremy Strong?! Come on now! The screenplay is definitely not what most people were praising about that movie.
Angelina Jolie better win ✨ It's been too long since the last time she won Oscar and it was in Suppirting category, also I'm still mad that Natalie Potman didn't win for Jackie.
I dont even think The Apprentice is going to be picked up by a serious distributer. Trump is heavily favored to win re-election right now & im not sure anyone wants the baggage or potential retribution once he gets back in office.
Something not on your radar is Cillian Murphy for Small Things like These. It had very strong reviews out of Berlin and it’s now going to garner a lot of attention because of his recent Oscar win. Could very well head to a fall festival or two before release.
Oscars Best Actor still on the bubble whom is the number in our predictions specifically mine.. That I am sure Colman Domingo for Sing Sing, Joaquin Phoenix for Joker: Folie À Deux and Ralph Fiennes for Conclave are sure getting the nominations all awards season this 2025 specifically at the Oscars
the difference is the lists are so funny actress is so stacked it goes down to 9 contenders and then there is actor where we're just trying to find a find a top 5
I watched Hit Man in a theatre, it was ok, I thought a 3.5/5 maybe a 4 if I rewatched it. It’s certainly a great showcase for Glen Powell (lots of acting!), but I don’t think it’s a great film, just good, nothing wrong with good, I watched Under Paris the other day, one of the worst films I’ve ever seen.
If Paul mescal was able to get into best actor for an incredibly subtle performance in aftersun when the competition was slow; then SURELY he’s able to get in for playing an incredibly intense and unsubtle performance when the competition is also slow
I know lead actress is stacked but I really think someone from three daughters is getting in. And I'll ride this (delusional) timmy getting in lead for dune 2 wave until the day noms are announced.
@@lucasberchuck9564 the Oscars still have their genre biases and preferences and they have notoriously hated and they will ignore crime thrillers without fail. It’ll probably have no festival presence and quietly drop in theaters like Iron Claw
My current predictions on The Awards Expert app (as of 22.6): *Best Lead Actress:* 10. Tilda Swinton (The End) 9. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) 8. Amy Adams (Nightbitch) 7. Emma Stone (Kinds of Kindness) 6. Jessica Lange (Long Day's Journey Into Night) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) 4. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) 3. Angelina Jolie (Maria) 2. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz) 1. Mikey Madison (Anora) *Best Lead Actor:* 9. Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness) 8. Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine) 7. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) 6. Timothée Chalamet (Dune: Part Two) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) 4. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) 3. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker: Folie à Deux) 2. Daniel Craig (Queer) 1. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) *note that at this early a stage of the year I'm not predicting winners yet. Unlike many other predictors, my current number 1s are merely the actors I believe are likeliest to get a nom, NOT who I predict will win.
Josh O'Conner for Challengers feels like he could fit into lead, but if not I feel like he's on the cusp for supporting at least. He has one of the best performances I have seen this year so far.
1:50 Portman was absolutely not #2 for Jackie that year. Isabelle Huppert for Elle was. But I do agree that Angelina Jolie is 100% getting nominated. If Stewart got in for Spencer without BAFTA or SAG, Jolie will make it in by a country mile. In fact I would go so far as to say she’s still the only lock for that category right now.
I got: 1. Angelina Jolie 2. Amy Adams 3. Mikey Maddison 4. Zoe Saldoña (I think Karla Gascon will be snubbed or will run as supporting actress) 5. Ryan Destiny (It’s a sports movie written by Barry Jenkins. Come on.) 1. Daniel Craig (I think he’ll get BAFTA) 2. Colman Domingo 3. Sebastian Stan (The release date and the makeup makes me think this will happen. Plus A24 had Brendan Fraser and Paul Mescal nominated the same year.) 4. André Holland 5. Nicholas Hoult (This role sounds too meaty).
Having seen Piano Lesson on Broadway: definitely disagree with your assessment of John David Washington's role as a "straight man," and "everyone around him is bigger." That's not the character at all! He has a BIG firecracker personality, fast-talking, yelling, the whole shebang. His is the character that takes up the most air in the room.
Any world that Gaga can get away with going supporting ? I guess weve not yet seen the film but I’ve always imagined that that’s a supporting actress player , perhaps I’m off
my Oscars 2025 Best Actor predictions (june 2024) top 5: Izaac Wang - Dìdi Colman Domingo - Sing Sing Ralph Fiennes - Conclave Joaquin Phoenix - Joker: Folie À Deux Dev Patel - Monkey Man next-in-line: Cillian Murphy - Small Things Like These Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice André Holland - The Actor or Exhibiting Forgiveness Josh O'Connor - La Chimera John David Washington - The Piano Lesson Ed Harris - Long Day's Journey Into Night Jesse Eisenberg - A Real Pain
Most of the test reactions I've heard for Nightbitch have been very mixed. And I've seen some other people say the same (World of Reel). I did hear from someone who loved it tho, so we'll see.
I don’t think test audiences really matter that much. Test audiences for The Flash said it was the greatest movie ever filmed and it came out and was unanimously hated. Babylon audiences were saying it was the worst movie ever and it was just okay but was well made and still got nominated for things.
The only reason I have any sort of sliver of hope for Glen Powell is RDJ in Tropic Thunder comparisons. Both released in the summer, have a showy multiple character type/ actor playing a performance meta-ness and had an opening in their categories that they could slide into. Although Supporting actor seems a little easier to do that with than Lead and 2009 had a very different performance criteria for what was nominated.
I don't know why the heck everyone was hyping up Hit Man from the festivals, it felt like just another bland star-lead crime comedy Netflix movie of the week. If you need a crowd for your movie to be good, maybe it's just not that good lol
