20241016 Watching the Tropics SISE 

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward,
and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development during the latter part of this week. A tropical
depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and
Virgin Islands late this week.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
2. Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America later this week.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.