I have the exact same 5 in Best Director with Sean Baker winning. I think Saoirse may get in over Tilda in Best Actress. I put Paul Mescal getting in for Gladiator II in Best Actor because it'll probably be a showy performance. I've got Kieran Culkin getting in Supporting Actor over Stanley Tucci. Isabella Rossellini is such a prestige name actress she probably will still get in for Conclave even if it's a smaller role. (I wish Joan Chen had a chance!) I put Challengers in Original Screenplay over Sacred Fig. I have Nightbitch over The Nickel Boys in Adapted Screenplay for now.
I read Queer. Daniel Craig’s character, Lee, almost only speaks in monologues, He has like 3 different parts where he sobs alone, multiple parts where he is intoxicated and just incoherent, and lots of other smaller moments that could be played really well. Basically it’s the most showy performance an actor could ask for. The Character Drew starkey plays, Allerton, is kinda the opposite. He’s very quiet, sober, naive and innocent. But I feel like with how much Daniel Craig will *ACTING* it’s gonna give drew starkey an incredibly amount of contrast with his more subtle performance. In a way, he could be Charles Melton: hot, young tv star doing his first prestige film role. (Hopefully he’s not snubbed like Charles Melton). I’m excited for it. I have Daniel Craig winning best Actor and Drew Starkey at 4 for supporting actor. As for Lesley Manville I’m genuinely not sure what character she’s even playing. There’s one other woman character and she’s described as young… maybe Kuritzkes/Guadagnino invented her character? It wouldn’t surprise me if they added characters because the novel is only 150 pages but the film will be 3 hours long.
As a conclave book reader, the only real detractor I can think of is it being labeled as a thriller (which is a very loose description of what it is). I think at worst, it’s comparable to something like the ides of march and at best, like spotlight with real acting win possibility.
why can’t Dune 2 win best picture? just because there’s going to be a third one? what if the next one isn’t as good? then we’ll have missed our chance to give this masterpiece best picture
I don't think everyone agrees it's that great of a film. I for one really disliked it. Paul's character had little charm for me, the story was predictable, and bits of the world building felt like something an incel would fantasize.
I don’t know if many have seen this movie, I don’t even know if it’s eligible but I had Isabella Merced in Best Actress for Turtles All The Way Down. I WILL STAND ON THAT UNTIL OSCAR NOMINATIONS MORNING
Sorry to say but Turtles All the Way Down was a streaming-only release on Max so probably not Oscars-eligible. It was submitted to the Emmys in TV Movie and Merced for Limited/Anthology Series/TV Movie Actress. I also saw Cree, Mallard, and Reyes on the ballot in supporting. Don't let this take away your passion though!
