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I had just had a good run of projects, doing good work I was proud of in the right amount of time... and then, a couple weeks ago, disaster struck.
I had a string of projects to do. So, I did my best estimate on how long each project was going to take.
So I looked into project time estimation, and, as it happens, I'm not the only one who has a hard time with it.
There's actually a bunch of studies out there about, what researchers call, the Planning Fallacy. The gist is this: *we are all over-optimistic about our time estimates.*
"We chronically underestimate the time things take: that's why Sydney Opera House opened 10 years later than scheduled, and why the new Wembley stadium opened last year, not in 2003, 2005 or 2006, each of which had been, at various points, the predicted completion date. It's also why the list-makers among us get up each day and make to-do lists that by the same evening will seem laughable, even insane."
The Planning Fallacy, this over-optimism we have about plans, seems to effect all of us, regardless of culture or age. So, if you've ever been late on a project, you're not alone.
But I don't want to spend the rest of my life late on some deadline. *If we can make more accurate estimates about how long something's going to take, we're going to spend more time doing GOOD work and less time doing stressed out crappy, rushed work.*
So here are 5 tips to help you estimate how much time a project will take.
3 окт 2024
