A Fictional Story of Sarah - Early Apple Investor 

Once again - I don't see it as a pipe dream if the bots already exist. It's just a higher level of transparency compared to every other big company - they build in the open which has huge advantages (e.g., in hiring exceptional talent).

Congrats. What dumb moves are you referring to? I think he's playing 4D chess.

You sound like somebody who is able to change their mind if presented with sound logic. My view is that Tesla is just like Apple in 2007 - it's not already overvalued as you argue. Let me prove it to you with three counter arguments: (1) Apple in 2007 was not a small company. Its market cap was between $75B and 150B. The biggest company was Exxon Mobile with roughly $500B, so Apple was one third of the biggest company. Tesla is less than one third compared to Apple. So your initial argument that "Apple was very small in 2007, compared to Tesla in 2024" must be rejected based on this. The world has changed and so must your reference point. (2) The reason that today's large companies are almost 10x higher valued than 2007's large companies is that first we have had significant dollar debasement (roughly 7-10% per year) and second we can reach more scale through technology and winner-takes-most dynamics. Both arguments hold for the AI and humanoid bot industries. (3) Your argument that Tesla is overvalued obviously wouldn't hold if they produced $1 trillion in profit in 10-17 years, correct? So, your argument builds entirely on your thesis that either it won't sell 100M units or it doesn't profit $10k per unit. It's like with the Apple in 2007 scenario where you don't believe that 100M people will buy a smartphone. Nothing wrong with taking this position - I just think both these assumptions are not only reasonable, they underestimate the true potential (e.g., selling billions of units at an even higher profit per unit by renting out bots). You don't buy this future and that's okay. That's what markets are here for: I buy your shares and if I'm right, I'll make huge gains and you don't. If you're right, I'll lose money. I'm willing to take the bet. Thanks for sharing your thoughts! ♥️

@@finxter fair enough actually but I'm not selling my stock anyways even though I have profited above 1100% of my initial purchase but I am focus on other value stocks. But my concern is that so many Tesla pumpers are asking people to add more shares of Tesla which in my view is way too expensive and calling it early in my view is morally incorrect because it is building bubble in my opinion. I fear it would create a graph like Cisco or Ford name for some examples. Maybe I am concerned for the wrong reasons and maybe you're right maybe I'm right we just have to wait and see.

Finally somebody gets it. ;)

@@finxter , You highlight a very simple approach to picking an asset and investing in it and trusting in the long Arc of the development of what that asset is attempting to monetize. One which I think has minted many wealthy individuals along the lines of Warren Buffett but without the notoriety over the years.

@@DavidSaintloth Even Munger often said to pick great companies at a reasonable price and hold them for a long period of time. Sitting on great compounders of capital is not the worst strategy in the world... ;)

This sounds like the exact argument somebody would use against APPLE stock in 2007, sry. You (like me) were investing in Tesla based on the electric vehicle thesis and that's why you made some gains. There were people in 2007 who made 1100% gains on Apple based on their Macintosh computer investment theses or the iPod. However, after announcing the iPhone in 2007, the potential of the company changed by an order of magnitude. You need to look at this new company with fresh eyes - and without anchoring your numbers to past valuations. Same for Tesla today.

@@finxter hmm I will take a look at what you said again may be I'm just valuing base on past thesis.

@@Bronceado7184 , The company is a market value of just about 600 billion now.... And 30 billion in cash... And you think they're overvalued? What metric are you using??

@@Bronceado7184 , It's very important to analyze Tesla from the transitional mode in his business lines that it's going through right now. Auto making is a very high cost of entry business that takes significant amount of efficiency and optimization before it can be profitable for an auto business. In addition to that, it's a cyclical business with variation in sales throughout seasons and throughout financial modulation such as interest rate, hikes. It also is a business which in the traditional ice mode was heavily dependent on the dealership model in order to obfuscate certain aspects of inefficiencies in the production of the manufacturers. Offloading those potential risks to a dealership. Tesla eliminates much of those in its Auto business by not having any dealerships, but it is still subject to the cyclical variations in demand and in the macroeconomic climate. It is both an advantage and a disadvantage that it has been lumped into the pool of being just a car company. Given that it has always been really more focused on being a Green Energy company on wheels. Then it bought SolarCity and became a green energy company for static storage and solar generation, then it transformed again to become the autonomy company that it is seeking to unleash in the next year and finally it will become the company that unleashes autonomous artificial labor into the world. Each of these business lines more and more trans transforms Tesla away from the dependence on high cost hardware revenues to recurring subscription revenues for the repeated capabilities of its created devices. In the case of energy storage, it's being able to capture and store and discharge electrical energy, In the case of its electric vehicles, it is the ability to perform transport actions on behalf of a user over and over again, and in the case of autonomous robots, it is being able to perform complex human-like actions on behalf of other humans over and over again. In all these modes, there is an unlimited potential for generating revenue and deriving profit in a near 100% margin mode... Without doing any further math, we can conclude that if it's successful in achieving all of these lines of business, it will be orders of magnitude more valued in the market than it currently is and that alone is sufficient thesis to warrant investing it on a long-term horizon.

@@DavidSaintloth I'm assuming you are using the Cash in hand as it's value. Well I don't think it is the right way to value a stock but from the free cashflow. But at this point I think Tesla investors could use any metrics to justify their valuation. But for me I use the cashflow. But before Tesla was making positive cashflow I was valuing Tesla's market cap and comparing Apple to Apple and making assumptions of the growth of the EV market size and assuming a conservative assumption of what the EV's market size would be in the next 10 years. That's how I invested in Tesla but ever since then I have been only getting an overvalued price for Tesla through future discounted cashflow I also tried using Net income and it didn't make sense as well to as 700 Billion dollar market cap