Tom you're the G.O.A.T. of financial RU-vidrs. DCA really works. You've been right about TSLA, PLTR, S&P, etc all while buying nothing, smashing nothing, 😊 thx !!! How is gd pa?
My Question for you Tom is.... Yes it can be comparable to 1995 with all those numbers. But people (Overall Citizens) are not doing better today in comparison to the people in 1995. Our salaries are not going up proportionately in comparison to the the Cost of living. And very soon, i believe many people will be feeling that problem. Back then, the cost of living was way lower!!!
Fed will print through the debt crisis. continue to inflate assets. In the Feds strategy, inflated and growing asset prices (capital gains) covers concerns around debt
@@Cynthiape2uc That'll work fine for people with assets. I'm afraid of civil unrest. Many are now struggling to pay their bills. What will happen if we have another severe round of inflation and people's income is not keeping pace? Especially if we have widespread unemployment? Ideally it would be best if everyone's life was better. Money printing will make this impossible.
The situation is so much different now then in the 90s, in the 90s the emerging countries were all above 10% growth, Europe and Japan were doing so much better. The population was increasing fast , nowadays only in Africa.
Sure I can help. Debt balance on mortgages hit record 12.4 trillion in Q1 of 2024. Credit card debt reached all time high of 1.13 trillion in Q4 of 2023. Auto loan debt hit record 1.62 trillion in Q1 of 2024. Student loan debt hit record 1.6 trillion in first quarter of 2023. Total household debt hit record 17.2 trillion in Q2 2024. Bank lending rate is 8.5% (last time it was even close was 2007 8.2%). Oh, and core CPI is still 3.2%, housing makes up 2/3 which increased 5.1% in 1 month from July! CPI housing utilities hit record 335 points July 2024. Case-Schiller Home Price index hit record 319 points April 2024. Business bankruptcies increased 40.4% YOY ending March 2024. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.8 in July of 2024 from 48.5 in the previous month, firmly below market expectations of 48.8, reflecting the sharpest contraction in US factory activity since November 2023. It was the 20th decline in activity during the last 21 periods…………
You're absolutely correct, however markets and the "real economy" aren't directly correlated with concerns to debt. Government and markets are addicted to cheap money, easy credit and financing. Wall Street thrives, while the average Joe tries to survive. They'll kick the can down the road forever to avoid any systemic collapses.
So how exactly can we guard against the coming financial reset for 2024? Like what are really the best strategies to make our portfolio recession proof against the incoming financial reset? I'm very worried about my $110k stock portfolio.
I agree, just because the market presents opportunities doesn't mean we should rush in headfirst. For this reason, we should look for appropriate market analysis or guidance or, alternatively, seek advice from certified market strategists.
Having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
I'm very cautious about giving specific recommendations as everyone's situation varies. Consider independent financial advisors like "Jessica Lee Horst" I've worked with her for some years and highly recommend her. Check if she meets your criteria.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
Nice video, i had an early understanding of trading assets but was limited by my technical analysis skills. That changed when I discovered Shea Ardolf's strategy. Day trading should be given more attention as it is less affected by the market's unpredictable nature.
The beauty of Shea Ardolf ’s approach is her dual focus: while she aggressively pursues profit opportunities, she's equally tenacious about shielding investors from potential pitfalls. It's a balance few can achieve.
Investing with an expert is the best strategy for beginners and busy investors, as most failures and losses in investment usually happen when you invest without proper guidance. I'm speaking from experience..
this information is valuable. I quickly searched her full name and her website appeared instantly, showcasing her impressive qualifications. Thank you for sharing.
The beauty of Shea Ardolf ’s approach is her dual focus: while she aggressively pursues profit opportunities, she's equally tenacious about shielding investors from potential pitfalls. It's a balance few can achieve.
My husband and I sold our house in Florida to move to Texas. I invested some of the money from the sale in the stock market. The portfolio is up 300k this month alone, while everybody I know is watching stock news. I guess he knows the investment is making profit, but we've never really spoken openly about it. It's one of the best choices I made.
Great video. I agree with this thesis . Ai and robotics going to be bigger than the internet market run. My top holdings are palantir sofi tesla shopify and nvidea
The most popular investment portfolio strategies include diversification, where you spread investments across different asset classes to manage risk. Another is the growth strategy, focused on capital appreciation through high-risk, high-reward assets. Income-oriented strategies target regular income from dividend stocks or bonds. Finally, there's the value strategy, seeking undervalued assets for potential long-term gains.
As long as any security is above the 200 day moving average, I'll buy the dip; if it looses it, I do not rethink it: I am out! Simple, concise, actable.
Let’s be careful with choosing 1995 as a point of comparison. We all know it was a bubble that ended catastrophically in 2000. I hope you are not telling us that in 5 years another bubble will burst…
The artificial intelligence (AI) "boom" will not be like the internet's boom. AI's utility is nowhere near as broad as the internet's utility. Extremely few homes/individuals have or will have the need to utilize AI to the extent that would trigger an AI growth boom that would equal the internet's growth boom.
P/E ratios were much much lower in 1995 and we are sitting at SPX with forward P/E of 22 today. Pretty rich valuation. That is the only ding I have against the thesis. That being said, I am closely watching to see where the SPX monthly candle closes relative to the long term trend line that extends from the March 2000 top to December 2021 top. If we clear that trend line and follow up with a successful retest, then I'd be inclined to agree we are on the cusp of a 1995-1999 type explosive move up. For now the jury is still out. But my eyes are open 👀🚀
Not bearish. But the difference between AI and the internet is that the internet brought business to people, its not quite the same with AI though, right ?
Great comparisons from 1995 to now, Tom. But I wish you had compared the current macro landscape now to then also. What was the debt to GDP ratio then? What was M2 back then? I think we're in for huge increases to liquidity soon - the Treasury has no choice - which will further fuel and support your bull market thesis. But it will also likely increase inflation again too. I would have like to have heard what your take on that would be.
It’s fiat bro, as long as US dollar remains world reserve currency and held to the highest standard, it won’t matter. Now if that changes. Then down we go, FAST.
And missed a 30% run Also sold delta in 2020 and lost 84% Sold TSMC and lost 100% List goes on Nobody is the oracle Nobody knows for sure Remember, there is only 1 reason to buy a stock but 1,000 reasons to sell it
Unemployment is rising, credit card defaults are increasing and loan defaults are also increasing, BUT retail sales just increased 1% last month. That doesn't make any sense at all, but I'll continue to follow the data wherever it takes us.
@@ginawinther8260 Did retail sales not increase by 1% in July as reported by the govt? If you're saying the govt lied about the numbers that's a possibility, but the truth will come out eventually.
Thank ypu for your analysis. What's your view on: 1) Equity market valuations (CAPE, Shiller) and 2) Sovereign debt to GDP figures? Do you think higher taxes and central banks being slow to ease credit conditions might slow earning growth and impact markets? Thanks
As long as there are major pullbacks that terrify investors into selling me their shares then I’m all for everything going up over the next year or two. 😏
dow went from 30k to 41k on hot air predicting rate cuts no rate cuts and still at 41k retail sales are not up... buffet sold half apple stock... can it go up sure it has on nothing so far lol
@@TacoTuesday4 I don’t think so. I just got back from Europe and it’s Americans that have done well in the Biden Bull market. I know my portfolio is up huge in last three years.
I agree that some companies are going to explode by 2030, but I don't think it's fair to compare stock market of 1995 and 2025. Too much has changed. Many creators and analysts I've been following don't even take 20-30 year timelines serious anymore and only observe the last 10.
Tom I hope you enjoy your vacation. Sorry to bother you 😂 but can you explain more how these next months are going to be a cahnece to buy a dip and or good DCA in stock or S&P500? As I understand S&P500 is going up suptancioly in these next volitile months? II would like to buy in a good DCA in Palantir , is it in you opinion a good time to do so slowly and smart or wait for a dip? I know you dont hava a crystal ball 😂 but after following you for some time and support you chanell and a academy member -I really respect your opinion and perspektive... Thank and sorry for any inconvinience while on vacation..
@ tomnash you the best , I like how your commentary is so simple and easy to understand.....and connects with audience , Thanks . Question - thanks for drawing the parallel between the 1995 bull market vs now .....BUT how does the risk stack up (election , geopolitical and monetization of AI) between the 2 parallels ? also why is PLTR not in enterprise of mid-cap vs small business owners?
