A visual guide to Bayesian thinking 

If a repair man wants to rob you, he'll do it when he's writing the bill.

before video : chances of me being a millionaire 0.1% after video : i applied bayesian thinking (remembered my priors) , now the chance is 0.0001%

Great, explanation. Your real world examples were very useful for me to think through. Thanks.

Think more the hardest way of how I abstract the point of view, that instinct traits of most of us elaborated the different perceives... Vs Think more as wise as how I become personally persuasive by not forcing anyone in what I believe, as the system wish

Most people are really good at "Biasian" thinking.

I have absolute no idea why this was recommended to me but here’s a new subscriber.

Very informative and probably useful as an introduction. Neat presentation, especially the graphics.

Think more as wise as how I stopped here Vs Think more as wise as how I understandably win a particular argument with you

The fact that none of those stories were completed shakes me to my core.

Julia I'm guessing you're the math PhD because I would have just straight up asked Tom what his major is.

Think more it's the only reason to have a strong argument with what I stand... Vs Think more as wise as possible it's the hardest way to evaluate life as scout mindset

Think more when I know what's the right thing if you show your dissatisfied about me... Vs Think more if you don't wanted me to hide anything from you

Repairman snooping around for the circuit breaker: Appliance repairmen sometimes have this weird preoccupation with turning off the electricity to an appliance before they work on it. 220 volts can really ruin your day.

As someone who uses Bayesian systems professionally, in daily life thinking, and also to show why other people's arguments don't land, I have to say that this is a fantastic video. It very clearly illustrates to the layperson why Bayes is what is and what the messages are. I will be sharing this with others.

Think more when I'm wise enough to be more than being busy... Vs Think more when I'm wise enough to not be fool by entertaining hardworking people

You are a naturally gifted teacher, thank you very much. This will come in useful for certain areas of interest, in particular biases. If you've not covered Henry George yet, go down that rabbit hole and you may just find something.

I've done a lot of repair work, and I know what's it's like to be in the category: "looks like he's going to rob you but really he's just doing his job." Let me tell you - every place is built differently, and you should always keep your eyes open.. One time I found a gas line going into a bedroom and not even capped off. The place would have filled up with explosives at the turn of a knob, well if not for my "snooping about" that is. But it's also part of the job description to not freak people out. I just said, "I need to look around a bit to make sure I know where all the gas lines are going."

The trouble with updating beliefs while encountering new evidence today is we can all find evidence to support any belief. It really depends where one looks for said evidence. We all have so many information sources to tap now. So everyone can easily find whatever echo chamber they need, to reinforce whatever belief they hold dear.

Think more when I can't sleep Vs Think more the only person I feel secured to tell to

This was exactly what i was searching for. Thanks Julia!

Good. I've "known" Bayes' rule for 50 years but your explanation was the best visual one I've seen. I like the way you apply it to everyday life. Thank you.

Four years since I first watched this video and for some reason, it is #1 on my recommendations today. Much appreciation. Watching this is bringing back fond memories of a summer long gone.

Think more as wise as possible the hardest way when I learnt how to trust none when everyone doubted or confused me... Vs Think more when I learnt how not to trust to those whom I trusted either when they make fun about me

Think more the hardest way when I'm wise to be protective as mother to father, as father to mother... Vs Think more although most of the time they complain to each other

I never update my priors. In fact I would have assumed the repairman was wondering where he was gonna lay me out after eating my liver with some fava beans and a nice chianti. Fake repairman is the oldest cannibal trick in the book.

The fact that there's so many comments here along the lines of "wow, this totally changed my perspective on everything" is quite unsettling to be honest.

Think more as wise as possible to not be discourage when everyone says bad things on my back Vs Think more as wise as possible to learn how to finish my own scheduled duty in a day and bother not with everybody else's businesses

Think more to not be fool either by how others testedly testing my way of knowledge perceiving life... Vs Think more just like I know what my hands did in an hour, a day, a week, a month, a year and how I bestowed on the outcome of it regularly

I have wondered what happened to Tom, he was my first friend on MySpace.

Bayes' Rule is an important component of critical thinking. The ability to think critically is a skill that needs to be learned. The challenge is that common sense and intuition are often very wrong, and there's no trivial way for knowing when. It's on a case-by-case basis, and all those cases are about patterns that need to be recognized and examined.

Think more when I'm wise enough to stick with treasure.... Vs Think more it doesn't mean I can be easily fool by those who die-hardly tried to teach me morally lesson

@Julia very good explanation. What is the tool you used to draw the things on screen?

I realize I've been using this intuitively for years to fight my, or others' fears. But being able to quantify and codeify it is such work work of brilliance, I'm astounded. That's a smart person.

_sees repairman checking out my bedroom_ _slams him against the wall_ "8% chance you're gonna rob the place, huh punk?" "but sir, I'm here to repair your bed" "Bayes would disagree .... get out before I call the police"

How do we make balanced/accurate estimates for the figures used in the Bayesian reasoning framework?

Think more the hardest way to fool not by the unsuccessful challengers Vs Think more as wise as how I trusted my deep rooted instincts

Another important clue that Tom is a Math PhD student: He's walking. MBA students travel around campus in golf carts that they stole from the campus maintenance department.

I had a rudimentary understanding of Bayes theorem prior to this video, but now I feel like I really understand it. thank you

Think more as wise as possible with Computing W is for Wide Area Network... Vs Think more as wise as possible with Computing X is for Xperia

Think more the hardest way as wise as how I'm honest to myself, with every details of how I spend my precious seconds of every minutes of every hours.... Vs Think more the hardest way even when I was supposed to be happy in a framely set-up man-made time-line schedule

These personal experience examples were amazing, helped understand it more intuitively. Thank you! Came here after crunching through some equations but these real world examples showcased the theorem in a very simple way.

Got a good chuckle out of the mathematician joke actually.

great vid. What's the joint probability prior of shifty eye repairmen?

Very good video. I m learning statistics and this has helped me a lot

The willingness or openness to challenge your initial impressions, and subsequently alter them, is a component of the attribute we used to call "humility". It has more to do with wanting to see things accurately, than it does with some false sense of being humble.

This seems like a good way to justify your position while also being wrong. I like it.

Where have you been for the last year, Julia? I love your brilliant videos.

Think more the hardest way to fool not by alternative secrets of the miraculous appearers Vs Think more as wise as how I didn't appreciate the everything comes in one tactics

Never did think of Bayes Theorem as a way of life, but it does seem fun.

I've always liked to use something close to this general thought to keep my analysis, general guesses and knowledge of stuff updated and changing, avoiding fixed preconceptions or prejudices. This is quite similar in many ways to my personal system, although I haven't put it down in numbers or created clear rules and patterns, it was more psychological and simple. It's very interesting to find something close, and makes me even more interested in the possibility of studying statistics, something I already like a lot, but don't know if I like enough to live on it. Thanks for this, I think I first saw you with Matt Parker on Bayes. Keep up the great job. Every detail can have a small influence on coming to momentary (?) conclusions, always doubt yourself.

Think more even if I had nothing in mind to say... Vs Think more yet I can't be repeatedly fool like I still have times to happy with others when I'm actually not for one reason

Think more the hardest way with the same anointed computer mouse clicked hand that I communicatedly reached out to you with the flow of highly expressive commenting Vs Think more the hardest way when it's though for the readers to understand how I combat my normal mind

It was the 'university campus' bit that got me. If you'd said 'federal prison' it would have been perfectly obvious.

This is one of those rare things which feels like a bug fix to the brain

Think more the hardest way as *•Seeing, •Hearing, •Touching, Smelling, •Tasting as key features of CHANEL* in David Berlo's model of Communication Vs Think more the hardest way as *•Communication skills, •Attitudes, •Knowledge, •Social System, •Culture as key features of RECEIVER* in David Berlo's model of Communication

Think more when I learnt how to be busy instead of how to be sexy Vs Think more when I learnt how to be sensitive instead of how to be sensual

Wow! This was very insightful. Even the way you calculated the conditional probability without using the formula and just using the areas instead.

I can't believe I took so long to find this channel.

Think more as ownership secrets.. Vs Think more to fool not by acclaimers tactics

Think more the hardest way as a person who always managed to complete the task with deadline... Vs Think more the hardest way to not be fool by the delayers' tactics

This is such an amazing explanation. Thank you so much!

Your videos have added that extra weight to my priors I need to convince me of the merit of Bayes Theorem. I'm committing myself to practice Bayes thinking. Thank you!

Think more the hardest way to satisfy not only at the level of how others perceived me morally... Vs Think more the hardest way about how I believed in the positiveness of why I didn't have to agree with all they elaborated their point of views

Think more as wise with 98 minutes ago since 03:00 PM Vs Think more as wise as how I stopped having evening refreshment tea and lunch at home, yet with a somehow little effort I managed to cut the grasses as I was assigned to

I was reading an old newspaper and came across this theorem, thank you for clarifying!

This popped up in my recommendations. Never have I been so instantly hooked.

Think more when I'm wise enough to stick with the last updating photos... Vs Think more when I cannot be fool like I wasted my day as Social media addicters

Isn't it amazing how personality and the subsequent psychology factors into not only the type of career path one may choose to do but also their attitude in life? Some people naturally tend to be shy while others are predisposed to be extroverted and thereby inclined to have greater degree of social success - these are the business and management types and are often well suited to their role. Perhaps this could be taken as an indication of what career an individual might be better suited for rather than lumping everyone into a uniform set and expecting them to perform in an identical way in accordance akin to a one dimensional academic expectation. Its like throwing out the baby with the bath water. In education, many will display a greater inclination toward a specific interest that presents itself as a good reflection of what they are really curious about. These subsequently aspire toward achievement in their chosen fields that is often associated with quiet study and solitude (think library) often resulting in an excellence in both attitude and performance. Additionally however, such a generalized performance model or KPI can exclude an individual from achieving their true potential as the expectation is in accordance to a generalization rather than specialization.

If you found the math joke funny, what is the probability you are a mathematician?

As to the final part, "Update incrementally", it is good to keep in mind when doing so that forming a general principle based on personal exposure, even if to many adherents, is still anecdotal not empirical, and thus influenced by the persons own biases or the context of the social norms. So in Berkley, where there is a lot of new-agey sentiment there are more people who feel that meditation is beneficial and this in and of itself can increase ones own personal perception of benefits, or if formulating opinions based on informal tallies of personal interactions, lead you to think, well it must actually have positive benefits because so many of those I encounter say it does. It is much like if you went to Brigham Young you would find many more people who said that prayer caused changes in the world or if you were at a Rainbow Gathering you would find a high percentage of people who felt LSD expanded your mental abilities and capacities.

Great video! What is the software used to create those images?

Think more as wise as possible after completing another meal of a day before 12:16 PM Vs Think more as wise as possible the hardest way to believe not in some strange stories that anybody somehow managed to fool during lunch, breakfast, tea or dinner time

a similar method I've used since I read about it in childhood: when the Wright brothers were debating methodologies they'd switch positions and argue for the other idea on the table. it's also a great tool just for building empathy and considering viewpoints that you don't currently, natively inhabit.

I've never thought that my constant complaining about people implied to them that I was jealous lmao

If anyone did think that Bayes Rule *was* the be-all-and-end-all of ways of thinking, then wouldn't that mean they don't understand Bayes Rule?

Think more to always go with the flow... Vs Think more yet not to always be over-confident

This is great, particularly the animation of updating your priors after receiving new information like in the meditation example. Most people only update their priors when they get a result that confirms their previous bias.

What kind of watch is Thom wearing? Is he wearing a vintage Casio calculator watch from 1985?

Think more the hardest lesson for self... Vs Think more the only way for blessing life

Think more the hardest way, since 25 minutes ago with musical tracks that suit a mood of a day, less with relaxed cafe tune I listened a moment before my lunch, less as a 1500g of potatoes I forgot to mention that I picked from eldest brother this morning, less with the old lady who walked in the house compound, the hardworking gate rigid plasterer, the hard working clothwashing maid, the uncle's son who recently showed-up, the house-room floor washing sister, the neighbour garden owner.... Vs Think more the hardest way as album reeling film photo of 2005-2008

I couldn't help being distracted by that light switch just left of your head, so . . . Bayesian thinking: 1. By your accent, you are probably American filming this in the USA. 2. Common US building code makes the top of the light switch about 4' high. 3. By making a quick judgement call, if you were standing up for this video your height would be about four foot, three inches. 4. By my experience the percent of adult women in the US who are only that tall is less than 1%. 5. I am adjusting my perception of you standing in front of a wall to perceiving you seated in a normal chair talking to a camera on a tripod. Okay, I am subscribing to your channel.

That math joke was pretty funny lmfao

Think more as wise as possible with good habits intuition benefits... Vs Think more as wise as possible to rationalise that reading job is more burdening than labouring jobs

Think more as I grow old... Vs Think more as automatically regretter once I came across and encountered with stuffs that makes me Reasonable regarding with our daily behaviours

Damn. You're a good teacher, I actually learned something.

The virgin math PhD vs. the Chad Business major.

This is really nice way to convey how statistics can be fallable and misunderstood

very important what you did on thinking

I don't know much about meditation, but as far as I do know, meditation is nothing more than you practicing to control your racing thoughts. And as we all may know, the more you practice something, the better you get at it.

Bayesian thinking is a tool that may help defuse prejudices.

Think more the hardest way as *•Communication skills, •Attitudes, •Knowledge, •Social System, •Culture as key features of SOURCE* in David Berlo's Model of Communication (1960) Vs Think more the hardest way as *•Elements, •Content, •Treatment, •Structure as key features of MESSAGE* in David Berlo's model of Communication.

Think more the hardest way as how a pile of *Grasshopper* looks like when we cooked them with simple method by attached them in proper arrange on a bamboo piece Vs Think more as the gold color appearance when they are perfect for having them

In 2002, Angela Cannings of Salisbury in the UK was convicted of murder in the death of her second and third children, apparent victims of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). The prosecution argued that the probability of a single instance of SIDS is 0.004% and therefore probability of a second instance is so small that homicide is the only likely explanation. The conviction was overturned on appeal when a statistician testified that, while the probability of two SIDS deaths in one family was vanishingly small, the probability of two infanticides by a healthy middle-class mother was actually much smaller. This is what can happen when you don't remember your priors!

Problem #1: When an accident happens, what is the probability that the accident is caused by a bad driver, given that: 1) 90% of the population has been involved in at least one accident 2) 30% of the population are bad drivers (means 70% are good drivers) 3) 99% of the bad drivers are involved in at least one accident P(Bad Driver) = 0.3 p(Accident|Bad Driver) = probability of a bad driver causing an accident = 0.99 P(Accident) = 0.9 P(Bad Driver|Accident) = probability of an accident caused by a bad driver = 0.99 * 0.3 / 0.9 = 0.33 = 33% When an accident happens, there is only 33% chance that the accident is caused by a bad driver. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Problem #2: Find the chance of having cancer, given that the customer is 65 years old. Facts: (a) 1% of the population have cancer (99% don't have cancer) (b) 0.2% of the population is 65 years old (c) Of those that have cancer, 0.5% of them are 65 years old P(Cancer) = 0.01 P(65 yr old) = 0.002 P(65 yr old | Cancer) = 0.005 P(Cancer | 65 yr old) = What percent of the 65 year old population is likely to have cancer = P (65 yr old | Cancer ) * P (Cancer) / P(65 yr old) = 0.005 * 0.01 /0.002 = 0.025 Only 2.5% of the 65 year old population is likely to have cancer. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Problem #3: Given the following: (a) 1% of the population have breast cancer (99% don't) (b) 80% of the mammograms detect breast cancer (20% don't) (c) 9.6% of the mammograms detect breast cancer when it's not there (90.4% of the tests correctly return a negative result). You have got a positive result.What are the chances that you have breast cancer? P(Breast Cancer|Positive Result) is what we have to find. P(Breast Cancer) = 0.01 P(Positive Result|Breast Cancer) = 0.8 P(Positive Result) = We need to consider both positive and false positive = Positive + False Positive = You have breast cancer and you have been correctly identified as having breast cancer + You don't have breast cancer but have been identified as having breast cancer = 0.01 * 0.8 + 0.99 * 0.096 = 0.10304 P(Breast Cancer|Positive Result) = 0.8 * 0.01 / 0.10304 = 0.0776 So, if you have a positive result, there is only 7.76% that you have breast cancer.

Think less with noises from the moving vehicles in the road... Vs Think less with three windows from a visible church building generator light bulbs

I would assign a high probability that Tom is on the Autistic Spectrum (based on his behavior and my experience with people on the Spectrum), which would add to my confidence that he's a math student because I have noticed a high proportion of ASD persons tend to excel at math but have little interest in business.

Minor point, but... when it comes to mental health, a consistent placebo effect is better known as a "cure". If something makes someone happier regularly, calling it a placebo effect is kind of meaningless, no?

Man I can't wait for this to be implemented in the next patch.

Think more as wise as how I know my level of mature concern comes out when nobody taught me... Vs Think more as wise as how I know that picking up some strange ideas from others just turned me not as concerner but as confuser

Think more when I'm wise enough to not let those outsmarters chickenly tricking me... Vs Think more especially when I was forced to shut my mouth while I had many things to say