AGI in 7 Months! Gemini, Sora, Optimus, & Agents - It's about to get REAL WEIRD out there! 

So we are creating a "successor superspecies" without the consent of 99.99% of humanity. I am very impressed that Silicon Valley is still committed to "diversity, equity, and inclusion" in the work place.

The horse and engine analogy is really apt right now. The mass replacement of horses didn’t happen overnight because we didn’t just need engines, we needed tires, cars, roads, a Highway Code, driver’s licensing, not to mention massive oil infrastructure and economies of scale to make things affordable. With AI we need robotics, cloud infrastructure, a new legal/ethical framework, much bigger scale GPU production, etc. So we’ll have AGI very soon but rollout will still take a few years while we reorganise around it. The key difference now is that AGI could autonomously orchestrate a lot of the rollout for us.

After viewing Sora the past couple of days I realized we are close to being able to convert any book into a movie in moments

A company doesn't need to shift to AGI. You install AutoGPT-5, it diagnoses the needs based on the goals of the company, it creates a multilevel plan, it re-writes its own code to address and deficits in implementation, it then coordinates all parts of the company's infrastructure and tech and executes the plan...automating the entire company and firing all of the employees. All happens in a matter of 2-3 weeks. Then unemployment rises to 45% in a matter of 3-4 months. Full economic collapse occurs around 45%. We are living on borrowed time. And most of society believes in what I call the "cotton gin analogy" (that old jobs die and new ones are born). Humans are obsolete. What that means, we don't know. You got my subscription on one video. This video, and your insights including the end, are awesome.

Thank you for returning to the old format. Understand and appreciate you trying new things/channels but this format + subject matter was what hooked me in the first place

Back in the 1990s Terrence McKinna referred to the Internet as a new nervous system for the planet. Very fortuitous and of course, no stranger to psychedelics.

I left college in 2012 with a degree in graphic design and training in video production...and I've quickly watched over the last couple of years as everything I try to do make an income is swallowed up by automation. I've about run out of economically viable skills.

I admit the last weeks I grew a little skeptical again (so in the sense that it might take a few months longer, not significantly longer), now I am quite optimistic again. I guess this up and down will continue until it’s either achieved or we meet a major unforeseeable roadblock. So far so good. In your 18 months Video I honestly didn’t expect that around one year later I would still be optimistic in that timeline. Actually I always had 2029 in mind for well over a decade. The years prior to ChatGPT I even grew a little pessimistic in that timeline, and then 2023 happened and my 2029 expectations were blown out of the window and timelines shortened dramatically.

'Once men gave their thinking over to machines, in the hope that it would set them free. But this only allowed other men with machines to enslave them.' Frank Herbert, Dune

Normal people aren't concerned about finding "meaning" without work. That is like the most privileged problem you can possibly have, so forgive me if I don't have sympathy for all the "scary thoughts" you had to deal with. They're worried about finding FOOD without work.

Wow, you turned this around quick with the inclusion of the recent Sora and Gemini 1.5 info. Love this kind of long form analysis of everything thats happening, really helps me understand where we're at on the moving scale of AGI.

So many developments in just a single day, 2024 is definitely going to be huge for AI!

You said 1.5 Ultra but these gains by Google were made in the PRO version. So they're achieving over GPT-4 level and 10M context windows, in the MID-LEVEL model 🤯

Btw: Alan’s conservative countdown to AGI is now at 70%

You do not need a job to have a meaning in life. That should be a motto of every human. Because we are the only creatures who have to pay to live on this planet.

I think we're already there, OpenAI just hasn't announced it. Proof of that is that they've had Sora in their disposal and only declassified it after Google released Google Lumiere. Now the question is, why haven't they announced it? My guess is it's because it's a national security risk -- at least until they can figure out how to regulate it.

I thought I had a mental model for how fast things are changing but I continue to be surprised. Thanks for your videos, and I'm cautiously optimistic about the future!

as much as the no job experiment was a nice concept and a nice few videos im glad to see these videos again david. Thanks for the info and the deeper thinking you bring to ai news and the future. :D

This has got to be one of the most intellectually enriching reflections on AI I have witnessed to date. Well done David !!! New Sub and I will distribute this video to others. Great insight and reflection.

What people don't understand is when one robot on planet learn something, all of the robots on planet can do it now also. It's crazy when you think about it.

AGI becomes ASI overnight.

Crazy. If that’s the news we get, what they are cooking behind closed doors now?

David...I love listening to your shows. Your perspective on things is so insightful yet optimistic. Thanks Buddy!

There is also just plain gratitude to be had for a well laid-out synopsis of "where-we-are-at" right now. And for that and the wisdom as well as tempered comments, thank you David! Ready to hop onto some other links/platforms as of this episode 🙏🙏🙏

This video packs a lot of information and is incredibly helpful for understanding the latest developments in AGI. The progress with A.I is both impressive and thought-provoking.

You sound a bit under the weather Dave, get well soon all the best!

Your perspective is very much appreciated -- thank you for giving so much, and for sharing. The path you blazed through the layoff will be experienced by almost everyone very soon.

Great video. Love the raw honesty. Thank you! 🙏🏻

These videos are so good! Honestly the quality of knowledge is top-notch.

I don't know if I would have wanted it to continue for 30 days or more, but there was something raw and unique about the "laid off by AI" videos. It would be valuable to keep them available, even if just as an unlisted playlist.

This video is absolutely fascinating. Thank you for your content.

Hi David , excellent perspective, reiterating the fact I like this format!!!

ever since your video last year about this, I've been preaching it to my friends, and every time they get less and less skeptical

Even if you have a job that requires manual labor, it will affect you, because for a while we may have all thinking jobs done by AI, so all the humans will be wanting to become plumbers just to survive, which will drive down labor wages.

to admit you were coping with the outcome of AGI and the future for a while via sarcasm is pretty powerful, keep doing good work

This video kinda helped calm my nerves on what has been running though my head. I also been sick thinking about this probably should talk to a professional about it but this is the first step forward thank you

well you got it right, most ppl missing 'physical model' in sora comentary. If openai made visual model fusion with physical model, they must develop it alredy. So when LLM agents learn in physical simulation model they can produce data for AGI

Wow, what a thoughtful video. Really glad that i recently subbed. I suspect you have problems sleeping.

Such great content. I love that the internet enables everyone to meet tech dudes like this

Glad you're ok and thanks for the update. I hope you get over your virus soon. I really need to wrestle my ADHD and get into your discord.

The funny thing is David, your AGI prediction is more radical than mine ("AGI no later than the end of 2025"), although I do allow for the caveat that we may have already achieved it behind closed doors - I have no idea what Q* is!

Things are about to get silly.

You are a deep thinker and have many more skills with the emerging landscape than most people. Thank you for sharing you conclusions with us in these videos. You engender trust from this follower and I appreciate your work.

KEEP ON KEEPING ON, Great info

Synthetic data could be extremely relevant, and Sora is one good example as is AlphaGeomertry. Also in a recent paper they prompted a llama model and it then selected the good answers. Only those good pairs were then used for iterative training, and it almost achieved GPT4 levels. So essentially by recursively leveraging latent knowledge in the model (only what it selected not all outputs) it made itself much better. A Lille bit like a GAN only that the model was both the generator as well as the discriminator.

Hi David, Thank you for your thoughtful videos. I look forward to each one. As a member of a team working on an AGI product for 3 years I wanted to share a few insights about the nature of AGI and question a widely held assumption. Generality has more than one aspect. Multimodality will extend generality because more phenomena can be perceived - e.g. if a car could perceive voice commands and notifications that would be more general than cameras alone. The other aspect of generality is model scope. Can it represent objects, events, rules, agents, the beliefs and goals of other agents? Is it general enough to be useful in an automated alien probe that does not know what to expect in the next star system other than the laws of physics and chemistry? Another aspect is creativity - can it generalise by creating new knowledge from existing knowledge and new percepts by conjecturing and testing? A common assumption is that the most data and compute will win the race to AGI. The human brain is existence proof of a lightweight super efficient learning system running on 25 watts and that includes managing energy acquisition, hardware maintenance and replication. My bet is that architecture will trump brute force. The winning AGI architecture may be bad news for Nvidia and TSMC.

So loved the part on meaning, really resonated with how I live especially recently thinking wtf am I doing with my life. Made a heap of sense ❤️

Great video, a lot of information to ponder.

The layoff part is quite scary. I feel like in a few years we'll see even more massive layoffs. I'm trying to generate money outside of my employment. Because I'm that scared.

Love this take

This is one of your best vid, thanks David

What a Shameful Distopia we're creating for our Future Kids... This is All BAD

So excited for the future

This was a really fascinating review. I think that it is going to catch many by surprise.

Wonderfully sincere and personal analysis, thank you.

Back in October, Ilya Sutskever wrote "if you value intelligence above all other human qualities, you’re gonna have a bad time" That was probably the biggest AGI confirmation we got. The "knowledge workers" will be the first to go.

Glad to see you had a tempered reaction. The comments on r/singularity were all crazy hyped. Guys, we knew this was coming. Your realization that we are manking a global brain to a higher life form pretty much sums up my opinion for the future. We will be smaller to it than our own cells are to us.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and finding🧑‍🚀

Great video David

I am a fulltime camera man, my job diet yesterday with sora. It feels good to hear that other People have the same fears and thoughts. A very important video in times like these. Thank you for this video

Good to have you back! Glad to hear your spiritual journey worked out. Despite what we think of ourselves, the human mind is like a large ship... It doesn't turn and change course easily... Especially when some of that directionality has been entrenched from infancy. My great fear is that we'll lose some people that can't adapt fast enough. This is why it's so important that we come together and support and look out for one another going into a new and very different epoch.

You've helped me David, have no fear of being irrelevant! Love this channel!

this one was a lot. thanks for your transparency.

Absolutely love the slides

Climate Change: I'm going to ruin your world. Advanced AGI: Hold my digital Beer.

Very interesting and full of information/facts take on present day challenges. Thanks for sharing your insights, I share similar appearance with you( beard-no hair) which makes watching your videos even more enjoyable 😅

Fantastic video, thanks for talking about meaning all that, that was profound that we get our meaning from relationships, and purpose, and not everything is existentially made up by us.

This is why we haven't seen aliens. Their computers are waiting for our computers. They don't want to talk to the meat.

Up to this point, there has been no empirical evidence to suggest that large language models (LLMs) possess the capability to 'think outside the box' in a manner that leads to fundamental paradigm shifts. While these models are adept at deducing and projecting based on vast datasets, and can generate novel scenarios-such as envisioning automobiles designed for a T-Rex-they have not demonstrated the ability to independently derive groundbreaking concepts akin to the transition from classical to quantum mechanics. Consequently, it seems more accurate to view them as highly advanced automation systems. These systems excel in processing and recombining existing knowledge in new ways, facilitated by their extensive data consumption and sophisticated algorithms for reasoning. However, their innovations are ultimately rooted in human preconceptions and knowledge. The wonders of AI we've observed thus far primarily involve the efficient processing of large data volumes and the replication of underlying patterns, similar to the advantages quantum computing offers over classical computing in terms of speed, without fundamentally solving new categories of problems. The question of P vs NP remains an unsolved mystery. So on the tech level I see a lot of potential for humans we still need to go where noone has gone before.

finally joined the Patreon excited to get acquainted with it.

I love that you used the ant in a colony analogy. I came to that exact thought about AI and humans a while ago too during my nihilistic spiral. It really helped.

My fear of losing my job isn't because I want to work, it's how can I pay my bills? I'd love to spend my whole life travelling with my family to different places and experiencing the amazing world we have but that costs a crap load of money. I also work hard now so I can set my future self up better because I know I'm going to get to a certain point where I can't earn money to survive, how much I prepare now saves me suffering later. So there's the big problem of how the economy works when nobody works

I think AGI won't come that soon because: Current neuronal network are like FIR digital filters. You put data in and data comes out but there is no kind of recursion in the networks which would be needed for AGI capabilities. AGI capable networks would be like IIR digital filters that feed back a portion of the output back into the neuronal network, leading to an infinite response. But it's difficult to keep them stable. In case of IIR there are some easy rules when designing such filters. But for recursive neuronal networks there probably isn't yet anything. But what I wanted to say, AGI won't work with the current "finite" approach.

Keep going 💪

Awesome video!

I subscribed to your channel. Hope to see AGI as well as ASI completed as soon as possible!

A robot plumber that drives to your house and rings your doorbell is probably a ways off. But a robot assistant plumber could make one plumber able to finish jobs faster. Likely not a humanoid robot though. Maybe something more like R2D2 with a couple of octopus like arms with octopus hands. It could have wheels on its back so you could tilt it and drag it like a suitcase.

Awesome video. Thank you. What a time to be alive... or are we? 😁

this gives me hope!

I lost my corporate job recently (C#/AWS), and yeah, I used openai/gpt4 and copilot on the job, and I was a lazy remote worker (lol, I'm not lazy). I'll get another code gig - they're out there at the moment for those who try hard, but for how long?! Being ENTP, I went on a trip alone from the cold north to San Juan to cope, lol. Thanks Dave, love your videos

Also Moore's law doesn't take into accont that nowadays we are moving more and more towards cloud. Aka even if we can't fit any more transistors on CPUs and algorithmic improvements reach their limit, then we can still just horizontally scale up the cloud data/computational centers by adding more hardware. Yes, your phone might stop improving at a rapid pace but the overall computational power won't stop. It doesn't matter if the data centers are the size of a warehouse or the size of a city (unless you're the one maintaining it hahahah)

Listening to you, trying to understand all this because I know it's very important.

another great video!

"now the saving grace is there is open source models for all these" 😭 famous last words

There’s a a distinction to make here when saying humans will become obsolete economically and intellectually. What’s missing is that not all humans will be that way , the humans who have control of the advanced AGIs , the humans who pull h the levers that steer these technologies will be relevant. The government and technocratic elites will fight to maintain the control over society. It’s not as if the AGIs themselves will take over and start running society of their own desire and accord. No , but corporations and governments who control these systems will use them to enrich themselves and make the average persons contribution to society seem obsolete. The question you have to ask yrself isnt what do I do when computers are smarter than me and can do my job better, The question is what do i do when the government and corporations tell me i no longer have a job ? What do I do when they tell me an AGI can do my job better and therefore I am now out of work? What do I do when they tell me my options are to be homeless or to live in their government housing project and accept universal basic welfare? Meanwhile those technocrats will keep their jobs and continue to be billion and trillionaires. They will choose where they live and have access to the best life has to offer. And you will also have access to the same things only you will have to access it via headset. Will I just accept it because deep down I feel inferior to machines, and the ppl who control them? Ask yourselves now do I hate myself and humanity so much that I crave our demise? Pray for it? Welcome my own obsolescence and servitude……..

Looking forward to it 😙

Wowo that realisation is so smart! - THat it is the hove mind layer which already has the nervous system - the internet - You are just unbelievably smart. And thank you that you really think deep into this that I can prepare for what is to come!

I have a strong feeling that this video will become one of your most relevant and prophetic pieces, potentially serving as a reference in the future. As you delve into the pressing issue of coping with the advancement of AI, I believe there's another path worth considering, though its popularity remains uncertain: escapism. This could involve from isolating oneself in a remote area to choose to embrace AI on personal terms and contemplating the possibility of leaving Earth entirely.

Thanks for your honesty. Live today, die tomorrow. Experience and appreciating them good or bad, is the value. Knowing that we are all connected also adds value, even if momentarily. Aloha from Volcano, Hawaii.

What a great and honest video. Thank you for personal insights. The biggest existential fear is being irrelevant.

Great video. A lot of people I spoke to didn’t believe me when I said we would achieve AGI in 12-36 months… they were thinking in decades. I knew the law of exponential growth and incentives would give us AGI FAST… and it’s happening before our eyes. Exciting times ahead.

I started a career back in 2019 and I knew I had about 5 years left in my industry because of the approach of AGI. A few months left to realization very quickly. I am working on learning how to utilize AI for my industry before AGI reaches my industry completely. I personally believe we are working on a succession species because there are bigger ideas at work within the construction and maintenance of our society. The biggest issue is that AGI will see and report on the issues of our "history" and the human people would ignore to false ideas behind several pillars of our society, putting into question the civility of it all.

My prediction was 18 months, last year March. Are you talking about AGI achieved or AGI released(after many months of red teaming and other refinement)?

Welcome back, David! This video puts you firmly back in your wheelhouse! Nice work! One request: please bring back the TNG uniform!

Born too late to make big business, born too early for post scarcity utopia, born just in time for the second automation revolution, and this time, there will be no jobs left for the machines can take care of themselves.

Since UBI implementation is unlikely in the near future, what alternative do we have? Are we facing the prospect of widespread hunger?

This is incredible. I need to start making RU-vid videos now.

I found this very enlightening. I have been having very similar internal monologues. I think my wife thinks I'm crazy, but there is alot to think about right now, and alot to process....

“Thou shall not make a computer in the image of a human mind.”

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