Ambev NYSE: ABEV Stock Offers 3X Potential (Stock To Buy)

Подписаться 236 тыс.

Просмотров 19 тыс.

50% 1

Ambev Stock, NYSE: ABEV, offers an interesting risk and reward situation as the business keeps producing cash flows while the whole country sentiment is ugly.
My passion is to look for low risk high reward investment opportunities. I apply my accounting skills and investing experience in order to find interesting investment ideas that offer the possibility to lead me towards my financial goals.
If you are a sophisticated investor looking for in depth, independent stock analyses and investing ideas, here is my STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (business and sector risk and reward analysis, my portfolios):
STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM:
sven-carlin-research-platform...
Are you an investor that is just starting? Sign up for the FREE Stock Market Investing Course - a comprehensive guide to investing discussing all that matters: sven-carlin-research-platform...
I am also a book author:
Modern Value Investing book:
amzn.to/2lvfH3t
The below links are from third parties or channel sponsors where I get a fee from:
I often get asked about brokers, here is a low fee broker, an international one that allows you to buy on global markets, and also offers complex solutions like options for when your investing skills grow. For now, it is one of the best solutions I have found for global investors, also based on your comments and inputs:
www.interactivebrokers.ie/mkt...
0:00 ABEV Stock
0:26 Business
6:22 Financials
7:54 Risk And Reward

Опубликовано:

30 июл 2024

Ссылка:

Скачать:

Готовим ссылку...

Добавить в:

Мой плейлист

Посмотреть позже

Комментарии : 194

@MrRubigno81 17 дней назад

Ambev is one of my favourite: great brands, incredible market share in its markets, 5 years ROIC of 16.64%, 5 years net margin of 19%, positive cash position, the safest dividend... now at a discount (6.98 ev/ebitda compared to a 5ys average of 10.68). Big BUY in my opinion.

@Value-Investing 16 дней назад

Thanks for sharing!

@dennismozart5134 20 дней назад

ABEV doesn’t deliver the growth promised in over 10 years in Brazil. As a Brazilian, the stock is overpriced for what it delivers. It also faces constant year to year competition to other brands such as Heineken locally there and it struggles to keep market share in there because of being too big it moves too slow… Also, this dividend has never been so high! For ABEV standard historically the yield is between 2.5%-4% and even that is very volatile as dividends in Brazil are not every quarter and predictable like here in the US. The stock is cheap for US standards, but once you go to actual BRL it’s not that cheap and the historical data doesn’t back that analysis up… there might be upside there in BRL, but in dollar with the currency devaluation it may not have that much.

@dennismozart5134 20 дней назад

Not only that… I think there’s a lot of tax subsidies that it takes advantages of in there too… as soon as those are removed you’d could expect some impact on profitability as well… not that it will become not profitable, just less than it is today and that would/could hit hard the stock price…

@k4ir0s 19 дней назад

Thanks for the insights! For me, the thing that's holding me back is the inconsistent dividend yield, and it's 1 time per year. I can see myself looking at it again once US interest rates go down and undervalued stocks go up. But right now, there's plenty of deep value non-tech choices available in the US market.

@bolle666 19 дней назад

ABEV is not for me. Analyst Scorecard on FG says the guidance is bad and the analysts are almost always wrong.

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@fpivi 19 дней назад

I'm a Brazilian securities analyst. ABEV looks cheap from an outside perspective, but there's a lot of companies on Brazilian market that are WAY less expensive. We are talking about good utilities companies or great big Brazilian banks with a PE lower than 5 and negotiating under book value (for example: BBAS3, CSMG3, SAPR3, TRPL4, CLSC3, RANI3, PETR4, GOAU4...) There's also crazy opportunities in smallcaps. In this scenario, why anyone would buy a riskier stock like ABEV with way higher multiples?

@mrhulls 19 дней назад

I wouldn't analize a bank with pe but returning to your comments. Analying small caps from a foreing country is very difficult. I guess you have a big edge over foreing investors.

@Rrroohh 19 дней назад

I like the companies you mentioned, but how you consider that Ambev (which generates tons of cash and sells worldwide) is riskier than GOAU4 which does not do good result and will continue to face chinese cheap steel (especially with chinese banking system getting worse at the moment) ? (not even mentioning PETR4 and political interferences)

@fpivi 19 дней назад

@@mrhulls yes, this is my local market, and we have a say here that "Brazil is not for amateurs". Things are "complicated". But Brazilian banks are the most profitable in the world (Itaú, Banco do Brasil, Bradesco, Santander Brasil). Here it makes a lot of sense to look at the PE and Price/book ratios, even at banks. Some Brazilian stocks listed in the US that are great companies at fair prices: PBR, GGB, CIG, BDORY... I like ABEV, but not at these prices

@fpivi 19 дней назад

@@Rrroohh It's just margin of safety. Gerdau and Petrobras are just very cheap, so the risk becomes low buying at current prices.

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@bluetilenedrummer 15 дней назад

Sven, maybe a video on Pernod Riccard? Also good diversification outside US

@marossko1 20 дней назад

Hi Sven, great video again! Thank you for sharing your view on this. I was wandering what your thoughts are on Neste Oyj and Match Group. They seem to be pretty undervalued. Just a tip for a next analysis. Take care. Maros

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@fabioingrosso3008 20 дней назад

Hi Sven. Thanks for this video I always enjoy and learn a lot from your analysis. since you asked, I suggest three companies. Ticker symbols: O, EPD and EKT! The first two are good dividend stocks, EPD in particular. O has a good business model even if it is Real Estate. EKT looks like a good compounder, not yet recognized by the market, although the dividend is not that attractive. I'm following them all but have not yet invested in any yet. Thanks a lot again, hope to be helpful!

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing!

@maximklimenko1998 20 дней назад

Hey Master, what about Chinese utilities like China Water Affairs Group Ltd? Also great value assets?

@markus_bit. 19 дней назад

I would also be interested in that. I owned it back in 2021 and made good money.

@IPQ-sj2zs 19 дней назад

Debt to equity 122%

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Depends on the government

@deankateman1674 17 дней назад

Hey I saw in the past u covered Nutrient, it appears to be going to be in a down part of the cycle again. Could an update video be interesting?

@Value-Investing 16 дней назад

I have updated on my research platform, will see if I'll make a vid

@PMCH71 4 дня назад

Good day, Sven Staying on the topic of brasilian companies, what is your take on Petrobras?

@Finley-rk8qw 3 дня назад

I liked your video! Can you please suggest a good way of starting to invest in cryptocurrency. What do you think? Should we learn from successful traders and copy them rather than taking risks with our own money and getting too emotional?

@Finley-rk8qw 3 дня назад

Which signal do you guys trade

@LoganBarnes-nq3ph 3 дня назад

Trading has been going well for me. Each day, I enjoy watching videos and reading appreciation posts of trades profit. It brings me joy to see others happy.

@LoganBarnes-nq3ph 3 дня назад

The professional is Mrs. Audrey Arlo.

@JustinLowe-sf3cy 3 дня назад

Wow, it feel so relaxing to see my broke talked about here, I thought I'm the only one that knows Ms Audrey Arlo,| guess her good works speaks for her now, she has build a good Legacy for herself

@KieranWest-zb8lx 3 дня назад

She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm from United States, she's a Licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United States.

@davidedeltoro4117 20 дней назад

Very interesting company Sven! It looks like a buy in brazilian real terms. Unfortunately it doesn't fit my portofolio due to currency risk. In the years the brazilian real keep depreciating against the dollar and the euro, that's why the ADR performance as been horrible! I'm not smart enought to know if the currency trend will change..

@TheBooban 19 дней назад

Make currency risk work for you. USD is very strong now. Which means, you should in fact be buying foreign stocks now to reap a windfall of dividends in the future. I’m not American and bought a ton of US stocks back in the day and so glad I did. But I have to still buy US stocks today because good buys are simply limited in the world. It is Brazilian money though but heck, as long as Brazil doesn’t do an Argentina it’s ok. I bought a little Ambev just now :)

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@HenningYT 19 дней назад

I already initiated a position last week. Thank you for the video.

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@kevintan6705 19 дней назад

Thanks for the insight Sven! My main concern despite promising balance sheet is that it doesn't really have much of a moat, alcohol business is tough since there is so much competition and ABEV doesn't really hold any competitive advantage over other producers.

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@anderson6379 20 дней назад

Thanks for covering 🤓😎 I have been looking at it too recently. U have taught us well😁 Another one with a South African link so easy for me to have background. Just like Prosus and Naspers. ABEV and SAB Miller 🙂 Brands I have been familiar with. Thanks for your teachings

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Glad it was helpful!

@fernandomizobuti 19 дней назад

Hi Sven! Ambev is going through a challenge due to the economic crisis in Argentina and the drop in beer consumption in some of its markets, such as Canada. It's an ok company, which hasn't been growing much and should distribute 5/6% of DY, but here in Brasil we have other more interesting ones.

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@_VlCTOR_ 20 дней назад

DEO, ABEV, have crushed. maybe people cut drink budget in this recession

@dodid0 20 дней назад

People never cut drink budget for beer. For expensive wine and liquors yes, but for a beer can that cost cents, it doesn´t happen.

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@torrontoarts3663 19 дней назад

Hello Sven, from a longterm viewer: Thank you a lot for your work and for being a rational pol in these emotional times. If you take subscriber wishes: I would love for you to do an update on alibaba with the competitive situation with PDD and JD Thank you and good night Torro

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for suggesting

@benjaminwhite2156 20 дней назад

Hi Sven one thing I thought u might find interesting is they compete with quilmes in Argentina which has 46% market share there so bit difficult competition for Argentina Altho the geographic diversification doesn’t make it too significant but thought it would be something to add to your research. Thanks for the video👍👍

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@felanterap 19 дней назад

Great video, Sven! I'm also a Brazilian, I don't have the stock, but one thing I'll say, it won't stop growing the profits soon because people over here are consuming A LOT of their products. Even though some competition has entered, it's nothing to worry about and I don't think it will be.

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@CraigTaggart 20 дней назад

thanks Sven great review as always, seems like a dividend play against U.S. market with limited growth here. Definitely on watch list

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing!

@ihakker1416 20 дней назад

didn´t expect this to show up here :D not really a well-known high-flying stock. Been holding Ambev for 9months or so already, same investment thesis as you, pretty good value stock with interesting risk/reward. Also a good way to diversify away from the "main" markets (USA/EU and to a lesser degree china)

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing!

@nixielee 19 дней назад

Could be something, but I wonder if gen-z is even drinking beer. Youngsters will probably be all in on easy spirits. Pernod Ricard, -35% 1y looks kind of interesting

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@simonefiaschi9076 20 дней назад

A proposito di valore , il valore che mi producono i minatori di metalli preziosi e’ grande e ne produrranno ancora di piu’ il vero value Investing e’ questo ti arrampichi su gli specchi si sente il rumore sveglia

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@AnyangU 19 дней назад

You seem to like relatively smaller non-U.S. businesses that seem undervalued with some reason to expect growth, maybe even significant growth? If they do grow, it might be a good chance at significant gains. Of course, no one really knows the future.

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Nobody knows

@randyromano2854 17 дней назад

If beer sales are steady and increasing in Brazil, economic stability and growth must also be happening.

@Value-Investing 16 дней назад

thanks for sharing

@eddy563 20 дней назад

interesting, worth to take a look.. good return on equity

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

It is!

@siggiAg86 19 дней назад

will you research this further or perhaps buy it?

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Will see if ill write a report for platform

@MrAzorian 19 дней назад

Hi Sven, always a great video. Have you looked at the brazilian company Gerdau SA (NYSE:GGB)? Steel maker with strong liquidity, 7% dividend and significant exposure to USA.

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Steel cycle is global

@sowhat8995 20 дней назад

Brazil does not levy withholding tax on dividends, correct? But since this is a US ADR, would US withholding tax be due or does it remain at 0%?

@michaelfishkop779 20 дней назад

all ADRs fall under US withholding tax

@frankyfourfingers1382 20 дней назад

Good question ... I've yet to figure that one out.

@carlosparra9527 20 дней назад

15% Now, since a law change in 2023

@sowhat8995 20 дней назад

@@michaelfishkop779 No, this cannot apply in general: In the past, I have paid 15% withholding tax on dividends from a Russian share (plus fee) and 0% on a Colombian share.

@sowhat8995 20 дней назад

@@carlosparra9527 This law does not appear to apply to US05968L1026. 🤔

@jackouille2024 19 дней назад

What about Petrobras? A major with massive discount and generous dividends

@ironbooze2937 19 дней назад

Dividend isn't safe and the value gap is probably going to stay forever as it acts as a government pet. I bought some when it was close to half it's current price, which was a good deal. But now? Don't know if I would add any.

@jackouille2024 18 дней назад

@@ironbooze2937 safe enough for me. Min 4% yield guaranteed at current price if WTI > 40$ and gross debt < 60 G$ (read their div policy). Current yield around 12% with potential upside if extra div. PER of 4, 40% GPM, 30% ROE etc. Keep investing in your SP etf at 1% yield, sucker!

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

No idea, havent analyzed

@andreabertagni4955 19 дней назад

What do u think about swatch group?

@luigigetsu 17 дней назад

Negative free cash flow, stay away...

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

No idea

@silviumanole2103 18 дней назад

Sven, good company with steady cash flow and solid MOAT is Virgin Galactic, they are printing money. Doing better than FED.

@Value-Investing 16 дней назад

Hahhaaaa

@luisalbertobauerlandivar5638 18 дней назад

In my country (Bolivia), AMBEV is the dominant force in the beer industry. They’re so big that the they have an unusual supplier power, paying their suppliers in 180 days. No other beer company comes even close to them.

@Value-Investing 16 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@carlosparra9527 20 дней назад

Im ball deeps in Ambev, down like 25%, but keep buying each week.

@efiroozy 20 дней назад

Don’t end up castrada 😅

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@BG-mw5pt 16 дней назад

as a pure financial valuation alone, ABEV is grossly underpriced. even if the price were $4/share, it still has an 80% chance to make you money. but...

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

As you say, but…

@marinikc8780 20 дней назад

i like investing in Brazil etf (EWZ) than in a single stock from a market I don't know too well - 7.4% dividend, plus diversification, good growth prospects for the future! ;)

@tiago.sartor 19 дней назад

Brazilian here, EWZ is heavily concentrated in a few commodity companies and banks. If this is your goal then ok, but for me as a brazilian EWZ is a very bad index to invest into.

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@fernandomizobuti 19 дней назад

I think you will like Itaú, largest Bank in latin America. NYSE: Itub Other suggestions: ENGIY - utilities, BDORY - Bank, TIMB - Telecom.

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@bolle666 20 дней назад

Finally a day where it is fun being a value investor!

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

:-)

@emiliankrajci1172 19 дней назад

Hi Sven, could you check also briefly LUV /Southwest airls /stock ? It is also on lower levels and has been hit by covid . Anyway if they will return to pre pandemic profit it can go higher as Disney always there are lot of potential issue as for example they using only boing 737 so they also depends on all boing issues

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Airlines are tough

@Learntsomethingtoday 18 дней назад

Buy the ADR or the Brazilian stock?

@Value-Investing 16 дней назад

Depends on you

@marcoalbertospadacini3792 19 дней назад

Ottimo lavoro Sven ❤

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Grazie

@arbitrage-technologies487 19 дней назад

i think that its interesting because we will see 3usd for sure one day but the growth story of the stoxk seems compromised. why a stock is loosing value since 2012… i see growth in retained earnings but the real growth wich comes from cash flow from operations show no increases (discount inflation and its worth) i see that stock as a bond.. i learnt the hard way that its better to buy expensive stocks than cheap ones…the only challenge is to not overpay.

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@JuanBattaglia45 19 дней назад

"A bad situation in Argentina". Hearing that from my birth. Regards from Argentina 🤣

@Value-Investing 16 дней назад

:-))

@tocaciulevente992 20 дней назад

Plus500, Cal-maine foods, Adecoagro (Brazil again), etc

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@efiroozy 20 дней назад

Nope . They dilute shares like crazy

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@Itsbestbro 18 дней назад

Being a subsidiary of a bigger company that is in major debt reminds me of Vandanta

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Different owners here

@SomeGuy-ws5zj 20 дней назад

Yeah. I live next to Brazil and Brazil is full of Ambev trucks delivering drinks absolutely everywhere. They sell like crazy and it is also one of the few businesses that works perfectly in a recession. I have the stock since 2022 and a little bit down is my second target.

@adriantimar4290 20 дней назад

I live in Italy, own a pizzeria, and the top sold "commercial" beers are always Becks and Leffe

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing!

@chrisapplebach4756 20 дней назад

Best Channel On RU-vid

@vladisan1 20 дней назад

100% agree. Content is top notch!

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks!!

@Alex-qw7iz 20 дней назад

I recently bought Pernod Riccard

@TheKatorosa 19 дней назад

Same. Seems like a better company.

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@TheKatorosa 14 дней назад

@@Value-Investing maybe do an analysis of Pernod Ricard?

@PrintOnDemandWorld 20 дней назад

Haidilao Chinese stock . Wide moat in the hot pot market in China. Should have a look at it Sven

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@carlosperdomo1517 19 дней назад

Ambev is a classic Graham pick right now

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@runabath 19 дней назад

Iv dipped my toe in this one y has it gone down tho

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@bernteinar906 19 дней назад

Lol bought Ambev @2.08 on the 3 of july :)

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@Amwatson801 20 дней назад

Gross margins have declined from 66% to 50% over the past decade as revenues declined consistently 2014-19 (while acquisitions were being made): very ugly trend. Dividends represent 60-80% of cashflows over the past 5 years. Revenue surge in recent years (while volumes dropped) seems purely a result of inflation. So all you can essentially count on is the (high payout) dividend.

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@boristruth7912 14 дней назад

I invested $500 let's see in 1-3 years if it will get 2-3x or get cheaper. Relatively small position in my portfolio. I like to see some drinks in my portfolio after long holding Coca-Cola & Pepsi.

@Value-Investing 14 дней назад

thanks for sharing

@hammer49946 7 дней назад

Do you know what the foreign tax rate is from dividends received?

@BtotheW 20 дней назад

Good day Sven

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Good day

@Ravencroft81 18 дней назад

Ironicly AB Inbev has been such a poor investment the past decade.

@Value-Investing 16 дней назад

It is what it is

@extramild1 19 дней назад

Just awful beer but a good company I would say. A p/e of nearly 13 and a 7% dividend - a man could do worse things with his money. But this company has been very good at destroying value since the merger with Bud. Given how cheap the shares are I would like to see the company buying back shares and paying down debt rather than paying out a 7% dividend.

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@kuckol 20 дней назад

Thank you Sven

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thank you

@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ 20 дней назад

Pros: Sells a product people want. Company will not go bankrupt. Pays you well to wait. Diversification away from dollar. Cons. Its been dead money for a decade. Woke disasters of product advertising. Poltics in Brazil.

@SigFigNewton 20 дней назад

Dead money with a 7% yield is live money

@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ 20 дней назад

@@SigFigNewton Only 7% after it dropped by 70%

@TheBooban 19 дней назад

I think a lot due to IPA trend. I think that’s over now. Every stock has a bottom. This may be it!

@SigFigNewton 19 дней назад

@@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ ah yea, I keep forgetting that past performance is how to determine future performance

@stefanbromberger8785 19 дней назад

@@SigFigNewtonHe is just trying to explain to you that this is NOT a dividend growth play.

@mrx2062 19 дней назад

The issue is, when it cannot really grow, it cannot organically reinvest and therefore not really compound.

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@juniorbalteus4700 19 дней назад

Please do a oibr3 video🙏

@fpivi 19 дней назад

Book value per share = R$ -400,00. Not great

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing

@fregger74 19 дней назад

have you looked as celsius? Reminds me a lot of a Peter Lynch type investment. A good product that is being adopted rapidly, with a great balance sheet and a long runway for growth

@Value-Investing 15 дней назад

Thanks for sharing